True
But my comment would be, get drafted nearly 10 years ago and that's it? No expected improvements on weaknesses, no improvement physically as you grow stronger /put on weight etc.
Kyle Connor: The Enigma
- Thread starter johnnyonthspot
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But my comment would be, get drafted nearly 10 years ago and that's it? No expected improvements on weaknesses, no improvement physically as you grow stronger /put on weight etc.
Yeah I don't think being a high end scorer means you must be one of the worst defensive players in the league. It just seems that the org never expected it of him for whatever reason.
yup. working off that premise and segmenting just to the elite-to-top goal scorers over the past few years, connor is near the bottom in xGA rates and in net-goal differential - while he has the best goalie in the league backstopping him. i think most can live with a bit of a trade-off with the goal-scoring, but worst of the bunch?
i understand players cant be great in every aspect of the game, & no one is expecting that, but can we get at least average at defense? or some semblance of physicality? when Elias Petersson who can barely fill out half a seat at MTS Centre is showing more physicality than you, something is amiss.
edit: i looked at this a few weeks ago but refreshing it;
from 21-24: let's consider the top-32 as the "elite goal scorers" which is a group he belongs in. not sure if that's to short or big of a list. you get roughly the same rankings for him if it's expanded to top-50.
Connor is 15th in total-goals scored, 31st in 5v5 net-goals (-2: basically is at even) and xGA/60 (3.0 xGA/60, 165 xGA), and 31st in total hits registered (87).
just to put in context; the average of the top-32 goal scorers are a +39 and 2.6 xGA/60 (or 138 xGA) at 5v5, and 235 total hits registered over the 3-seasons.
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Buffdog
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Maybe the coaching staff see Schief as the only centre who can somewhat carry him. He played a bunch with PLD in the past
What if putting him with another centre made THAT line so bad that it became a net-negative to the team?
Once Vilardi is back he will probably be put with Scheifele and Connor if that doesn't get Connor going then you move Connor down and Ehlers up . Hopefully Vilardi is back very soon so we have a few games to see how it goes.
jokesondee
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It would be interesting to visit a bizarro alternate universe where Connor missed the whole season with his injury and see where the Jets are. They were an absolute juggernaut when he was injured and have been an average at best team since he's been back. You ADD a 40 goal scorer and somehow become worse. Its shocking really.
Yeah…. It’s the 40 goal scorer that’s the problem. Let’s just call this what it is, more whining for Ehlers to play more.
Buffdog
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They both have their weaknesses. Connor is inept away from the puck and Ehlers creates way too many turnovers in terrible spots on the ice
Normally I don't go in for these "we're better with him out of the line up" like we saw with Enstrom and Crosby.
But Kyle Connor to me represents everything that's wrong with our team -- he plays like he's above having to work hard and like defensive effort is for 'lesser talents'. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if his accountability-free autoinclusions in the top line (while other players are punished for much less) have negative knock-on effects down the lineup.
Edit: I should say i don't think we're having problems because Kyle Connor is back, I do think that's silly. But I think whatever is going on there is symptomatic of what's wrong overall; reluctance to abandon ideas that aren't working, inconsistently applied accountability, lack of commitment to team defense...
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PaulPooley
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If that were true and he was that much of a liability (my opinion is that he is btw), you would have to trade him.
Buffdog
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OR you realize that no player is perfect and you try to ice a team where they make up for each other's deficiencies
Every team has a player like Connor
Furthermore, why do people shit on talented goal scorers who are inept defensively, but not on defensive players who are inept offensively
At the end of the day, his goal differential is neutral at 5v5 and has been on the ice for 18 more goals for than against with special teams included
In other words, he's still a net positive to the team. He's just the "whipping boy du jour"
When you break hockey into its most basic points, it's simply about scoring more then the opposition.
KC is by far our most used winger at 5 on 5 and in other game states but he at best breaks even 5 on 5 in terms of actual goal differential.
He is the only top 6 player over the last 3 years that has a negative goal differential and yet he keeps getting all the minutes he wants.
I think it can clearly be argued that perhaps we could do better then him in that top spot.
Given our penchant to run our first line hard, the performance of that line has a bigger impact on the outcome of games.
KC with Mark over the last 3 years is running at a 49 GF%
Now some will say Mark gets the tough matchups so it may not be easy for our other wingers to replicate results in that role. Well here are the results of our other top 6 wingers with Mark:
Mark with Ehelers 65 gf%
Mark with Perfetti 68 gf%
Mark with Vilardi 64 gf%
Mark with Wheeler 54 gf%
Simply put Mark performs significantly better with every other skilled winger we've run then with KC. We keep putting ourselfs at a disadvantage having to account for a top line that cant win its matchups when clearly we have the horses ro construct one that can win them. It shouldn't be about maximizing KC, it should be about maximizing Mark and the first line in general.
His usage is one of the biggest issues with the team.
KC is by far our most used winger at 5 on 5 and in other game states but he at best breaks even 5 on 5 in terms of actual goal differential.
He is the only top 6 player over the last 3 years that has a negative goal differential and yet he keeps getting all the minutes he wants.
I think it can clearly be argued that perhaps we could do better then him in that top spot.
Given our penchant to run our first line hard, the performance of that line has a bigger impact on the outcome of games.
KC with Mark over the last 3 years is running at a 49 GF%
Now some will say Mark gets the tough matchups so it may not be easy for our other wingers to replicate results in that role. Well here are the results of our other top 6 wingers with Mark:
Mark with Ehelers 65 gf%
Mark with Perfetti 68 gf%
Mark with Vilardi 64 gf%
Mark with Wheeler 54 gf%
Simply put Mark performs significantly better with every other skilled winger we've run then with KC. We keep putting ourselfs at a disadvantage having to account for a top line that cant win its matchups when clearly we have the horses ro construct one that can win them. It shouldn't be about maximizing KC, it should be about maximizing Mark and the first line in general.
His usage is one of the biggest issues with the team.
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Maukkis
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Posters were ridiculed here for predicting this as an outcome far before Connor came back. Funny, that.
That said, Connor (hopefully) doesn't decide the lines. At some point, people have to admit that this team has serious issues with preferential treatment towards the Connors and Lowrys of the team, no matter how negative consequences it has on the team as a whole.
Buffdog
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So what should happen if you took him off schief's line? How bad would the second line be?
I'd be interested in seeing what a Connor Monahan Vilardi line can do, or Connor Monahan ehlers (vilardi and one of toffoli or perfetti with them)
We're circling back to the "the top line needs to win its matchup" debate, which is exhausting. I think that if you're the Oilers, then yes. But I dont think we have a top line that will beat theirs or the Avs (or some other teams) no matter who is on it. Which means we need to win with depth, like we were in December
When you have a coaching staff hell bent on hard matching the top and Lowry lines then I think you absolutely need to optimize those lines.
We have no idea how KC would look in a lesser role against lesser comp because our coaching staff refuses to try it. Pittsburgh seemed to figure out that putting Kessel on a soft minute third line in the playoffs allowed him to feast on soft comp and helped them win two cups. Maybe we should try something like that.
Did you see the goal Scheif's line scored with Nino on it and doing the heavy lifting?
Perhaps, he is what Scheif and Connor need to get going?
I also think it must be written in Connor's contract that he has to be on L1 or L2. He would never be on L3 and I am not sure he would do well against hard working 3rd liners who use the body and grind. Two things he does not do!.
I think a package of Pionk and Connor would be attractive to most teams.
Our line 2 is already a soft minute third line. We have been deploying it as such for eons now.
Thanks for the analysis , which basically matches what my eyes see but always good to have stats to back it up although WTF does management or the coaches see that we don't??
I think they have to trade him IF the yare committed to being a defence first team. He is not a 200 foot player and never will be.
If they want to be run'n'gunners then he is a perfect fit.
I guess "what I am saying Brooksie" is he is a good player who does not fit into the current system.
Ok, thanks. I thought you meant this season. I've been hoping that they would be played together this year, but it doesn't look like it.
If you could get two guys who can score 15 goals each and have some grit and a positive goal differential, we would probably be better.
