Player Discussion Kris Russell (Do we need him next year?)

[Aceboogie]

If I were a betting man, if we win tonight, I bet we get outshot once again.

The Calgary Flames 2014 approach to wins

 

[OneMoreAstronaut]

I would absolutely want Russell back. He's been one of a few wonderful surprises this season.

 

[nexttothemoon]

The Calgary Flames 2014 approach to wins

The good thing though with the Oilers this season is that they aren't being outshot overall though.

They are 9th best in the NHL this year in ShotsF/ShotsA ratio at 5 on 5. Also 9th in Fenwick ratio at 5 on 5 and 13th in Corsi ratio at 5 on 5 as well.

Their PDO ratio at 5 on 5 of 100.8 is also 9th best in the league... which is good but not so good that they owe a lot to "luck".

All those stats are pretty solidly in line with where they are in terms of their GF/GA ratio at 5 on 5 as well (7th in the NHL)... and their placement in the standings at 9th/10th overall looking at their pts %.

The PP has been slightly above average and the PK has been up and down but is currently almost exactly average in the NHL. So special teams are not really something they are leaning on either for success.

Overall the numbers all pretty much add up to a top 10 team and not one that seems to be overachieving based on luck or unsustainable stats in some area or another.

 

[ujju2]

The good thing though with the Oilers this season is that they aren't being outshot overall though.

They are 9th best in the NHL this year in ShotsF/ShotsA ratio at 5 on 5. Also 9th in Fenwick ratio at 5 on 5 and 13th in Corsi ratio at 5 on 5 as well.

Their PDO ratio at 5 on 5 of 100.8 is also 9th best in the league... which is good but not so good that they owe a lot to "luck".

All those stats are pretty solidly in line with where they are in terms of their GF/GA ratio at 5 on 5 as well (7th in the NHL)... and their placement in the standings at 9th/10th overall looking at their pts %.

The PP has been slightly above average and the PK has been up and down but is currently almost exactly average in the NHL. So special teams are not really something they are leaning on either for success.

Overall the numbers all pretty much add up to a top 10 team and not one that seems to be overachieving based on luck or unsustainable stats in some area or another.

And, because players like Eberle, RNH, and Pouliot had slow starts, as well as the young age of McDavid and Draisaitl, I'd be willing to bet that we only get better, even if no changes were to be made.

 

[Stoneman89]

The Calgary Flames 2014 approach to wins

Oilers record is now 16-3-5 when outshot by the opposition. Not sure I'd throw all my marbles behind Corsi. Unless you think somehow the Oilers are the Flames of 2014.

 

[Nugey McNugeson]

Oilers record is now 16-3-5 when outshot by the opposition. Not sure I'd throw all my marbles behind Corsi. Unless you think somehow the Oilers are the Flames of 2014.

Shots do not equal shot attempts either. Oilers have been top 10 in score adjusted corsi for most of the year. Calgary was bottom 10. This team is real

 

[LaGu]

Why wouldn't anyone want Russel back?

Price tag is of course important but anything below $4M is fine with me, term is indifferent.




Edit: Fayne, Nikitin, Ference ....

 

[Nugey McNugeson]

Why wouldn't anyone want Russel back?

Price tag is of course important but anything below $4M is fine with me, term is indifferent.

Russell is riding the intangibles hype train right now. Wouldnt be surprised to see a GM give him $4M for 3 years this summer. If thats the price, then I hope Chia looks elsewhere. $4M is not worth a defenseman that is on pace for 10 pts, it doesn't matter how many shots he blocks

 

[LaGu]

Russell is riding the intangibles hype train right now. Wouldnt be surprised to see a GM give him $4M for 3 years this summer. If thats the price, then I hope Chia looks elsewhere. $4M is not worth a defenseman that is on pace for 10 pts, it doesn't matter how many shots he blocks

See edit.

I have nooo problem what-so-ever taking a chance om Russel for 3 more years @4M

Edit: he leads edm in ev toi per game... Larsson and/or klefbom will probably surpass him if they keep playing as they have done lately. I don't care about intangibles right now, that is a fact and it is not insignificant. He is behind Klefa, Larsson, Sekera (even though he has been better on occasion than Klefa and Larsson) but he rounds out our top 4 very good.

The point is that he works, we know it, we see it, unless there is a possibility of a significant upgrade (offensive rhd) I would resign him without thinking twice.

 

[Musashi]

Oilersnow has been pumping Russell's tires the past two days and shared a quick audio clip on how much Gretzky has liked his game. A lot of emphasis on his importance in the dressing room and how his competitiveness has rubbed off on players despite being undersized.

Bob and Elliotte mentioned that the Oil will be clearly looking to resign him but also later in the conversation, when not discussing Russell, Elliotte speculated that Chia will not be doing anything that could jeopardize building around Connor's and Leon's next contract.

Also when discussing player grades, Bob asked what the others would be comfortable with when resigning Russell and his speculation was that it would probably take 4Mx3. He went on to mention that with money coming off the books on Calgary's defense, they would be a good candidate to offer something similar.

 

[Nugey McNugeson]

See edit.

I have nooo problem what-so-ever taking a chance om Russel for 3 more years @4M

With Mcdavid and Drai getting new contracts, this team needs cheap, reliable players. Russel is a glorified #5D. Similar to a goalie who is always scrambling and sometimes makes highlight saves, russell allows entry into the zone easily and has to often scramble. That's probably why stats guys don't like him and old-school guys adore him

 

[bestmyfeeling]

With Mcdavid and Drai getting new contracts, this team needs cheap, reliable players. Russel is a glorified #5D. Similar to a goalie who is always scrambling and sometimes makes highlight saves, russell allows entry into the zone easily and has to often scramble. That's probably why stats guys don't like him and old-school guys adore him

yea i agree, he's helped us a lot this year, but personally i think he may be a luxury we cannot afford, ideally he goes and nurse/davidson/reinhardt/oesterle takes his role at a lot less $$ so we have money for 97/29

 

[LaGu]

With Mcdavid and Drai getting new contracts, this team needs cheap, reliable players. Russel is a glorified #5D. Similar to a goalie who is always scrambling and sometimes makes highlight saves, russell allows entry into the zone easily and has to often scramble. That's probably why stats guys don't like him and old-school guys adore him

Russel has shown without a doubt that he is a very good #4 with the right partner. Call it what you want, but he has held his own all season playing #4/#2.

Our D is still cheap with larsson's and klefbom's contracts. That is such an underrated part of the Larsson trade. If they keep playing as the last 5-10 games then they will do just fine as top pair for the next years imo, and that is without further developement which I think is inevitable.

 

[Aceboogie]

See edit.

I have nooo problem what-so-ever taking a chance om Russel for 3 more years @4M

Edit: he leads edm in ev toi per game... Larsson and/or klefbom will probably surpass him if they keep playing as they have done lately. I don't care about intangibles right now, that is a fact and it is not insignificant. He is behind Klefa, Larsson, Sekera (even though he has been better on occasion than Klefa and Larsson) but he rounds out our top 4 very good.

The point is that he works, we know it, we see it, unless there is a possibility of a significant upgrade (offensive rhd) I would resign him without thinking twice.

Thats true. 4M * 3 years isnt the worst (id like to go less term) but hes a solid piece already. Its nice to say we should get an upgrade elsewhere, but those dont always fit a team as well as expected. 4M is tradeable too and ill bet we are trading him in 1.5-20 years when other D overtake him. Natural roster turnover. Any more term or dolalrs nears untradabel range, see: Orpik

My DONT for Russell:
-Dont give him a NMC, limit and NTC
-Dont get in a bidding war with Calgary or any other team. Walk away at 4M. You have all the leverage, he wants to be here, use that leverage
-Dont go longer than 3 years and/or 4 mil
_dont sign him before July 1st. Let Davidson or another younger D show what they have. Worst case is you sign Russell early, but another D plays well enough to show they can replace him and we waste a roster spot (so many friggen lefties).

 

[LaGu]

Thats true. 4M * 3 years isnt the worst (id like to go less term) but hes a solid piece already. Its nice to say we should get an upgrade elsewhere, but those dont always fit a team as well as expected. 4M is tradeable too and ill bet we are trading him in 1.5-20 years when other D overtake him. Natural roster turnover. Any more term or dolalrs nears untradabel range, see: Orpik

My DONT for Russell:
-Dont give him a NMC, limit and NTC
-Dont get in a bidding war with Calgary or any other team. Walk away at 4M. You have all the leverage, he wants to be here, use that leverage
-Dont go longer than 3 years and/or 4 mil
_dont sign him before July 1st. Let Davidson or another younger D show what they have. Worst case is you sign Russell early, but another D plays well enough to show they can replace him and we waste a roster spot (so many friggen lefties).

I would give more term if necessary, but for the rest I agree 100%. 5 years would be my limit.

 

[Aceboogie]

I would give more term if necessary, but for the rest I agree 100%. 5 years would be my limit.

5 years approaches untradeable. For me term is WAY more dangerous than cap hit. Id go 5.5M * 1 year if I could. Hes at an age where some D drop off a cliff. Especially for a D like Russell who relies on physical tools. He hits a wall next year or year after and you have him for 3 more years, yikes.

Well need Russell for likely 1 more year max. % years is getting silly. Its like if you need milk for dinner so you go to the store and buy $150 worth of extra groceries. Will it get used? probably but also risk you waste alot of the food

Im not sure how likely this situation is. I have it as likely but maybe others see it as not likely: Davidson gets healthy and rebounds to his regular self, either later this season or into next season AND/OR 1 of Reinhart /Simpson/Osterle start kicking the NHL door down and prove they can be good bottom pairing D. Then you have a 30/31 year old, 4M Kris Russell blocking their path, but its almost nearly impossible to move him. At the same time McDavid/LD/Nurse contracts kick in, Cap starts to get tight. Oh and Lucic continues to decline and his contract becomes an anchor.

Thatd give me an heartache if we had to deal a young player for cap reasons because of Russell

 

[Stoneman89]

Shots do not equal shot attempts either. Oilers have been top 10 in score adjusted corsi for most of the year. Calgary was bottom 10. This team is real

I know. People can "adjust" anything to make it work for them. This team is real for sure.

 

[Stoneman89]

With Mcdavid and Drai getting new contracts, this team needs cheap, reliable players. Russel is a glorified #5D. Similar to a goalie who is always scrambling and sometimes makes highlight saves, russell allows entry into the zone easily and has to often scramble. That's probably why stats guys don't like him and old-school guys adore him

Not sure what you're watching. Scrambling is definitely NOT a word I would use to describe Russell.

 

[Musashi]

Thats true. 4M * 3 years isnt the worst (id like to go less term) but hes a solid piece already. Its nice to say we should get an upgrade elsewhere, but those dont always fit a team as well as expected. 4M is tradeable too and ill bet we are trading him in 1.5-20 years when other D overtake him. Natural roster turnover. Any more term or dolalrs nears untradabel range, see: Orpik

My DONT for Russell:
-Dont give him a NMC, limit and NTC
-Dont get in a bidding war with Calgary or any other team. Walk away at 4M. You have all the leverage, he wants to be here, use that leverage
-Dont go longer than 3 years and/or 4 mil
_dont sign him before July 1st. Let Davidson or another younger D show what they have. Worst case is you sign Russell early, but another D plays well enough to show they can replace him and we waste a roster spot (so many friggen lefties).

Very fair outlook that I hope everyone can be on board with. I will trust Chia's read on this and if he offers an extra year to get it done, I will hope for the best. 5 years is a definite deal breaker for me, same with NMC or full NTC.

Personally, I don't know if there is enough time left in the season to get a large enough sample on anyone in the bottom pairing being good enough to replace him. Maybe if Davidson gets his game back right away and performs down the stretch but us riding our top 4, at the moment, has been very telling to me about who we need in the top 4 and where our bottom pairing should stand next year.

 

[Dorian2]

Shout out to Russel! He's been great for this team!

 

[Zaddy]

It's a tough situation with Russell because I think it's pretty clear we'll need him next year. Relying on guys like Nurse/Benning/Davidson taking that next step and cementing themselves as top4 d-men is what loser teams does and that's how you miss the playoffs next year. But at the same time the Oilers can absolutely not afford signing a guy like Russell long-term. We have Lucic and Sekera as long-term commitments and we can't really afford another one (in terms of UFA deals). So signing him beyond 3 years it's very likely that becomes an anchor quickly. He might even become an anchor as soon as his 2nd year into the deal so having him more than 3 years would be really bad. It's gonna be really interesting to see how Chia handles this situation. It's a bit nerve-wracking because you can do 10 good moves as a GM but all it takes is one bad signing and all the good you've done goes down into the toilet.

 

[sportsdynasty]

Russell is our top D pairing defenseman. We must resign him. There is simply no one in the Oilers pipeline who could replace Russell on the top pairing.

 

[Zaddy]

Russell is our top D pairing defenseman. We must resign him. There is simply no one in the Oilers pipeline who could replace Russell on the top pairing.

Russell may be on our top pairing but he's still a #4D IMO, he's looking a lot better than he is because he is paired with Sekera, who is playing like a #1D this year.

I'd argue (on the Oilers currently):

#1 Sekera
#2 Klefbom
#3 Larsson
#4 Russell