Speculation: KOTR's Fan Base Mock Draft (Your team is on the clock #28)

[LAKings88]

Between those two I take Larsson. Debrusk should fall to early 2nd where we could trade up for him.

I'll accept the change of vote. Thanks HoseEmDown.

Tampa Bay selects Jacob Larsson. Thanks for participating everyone.

 

[Rschmitz]

If Larsson is the best we can pick at #28, please trade out Y. Hoping for Juulsen.

Give me Meloche with our second and I'll be very happy.

 

[BoltSTH]

My guess: Tsnhack Neverheardov from the Mongolia Elite League. Craig Button's frantic google search comes back empty.

 

[Jacko95]

If Larsson is the best we can pick at #28, please trade out Y. Hoping for Juulsen.

Give me Meloche with our second and I'll be very happy.

This. Juulsen is my guy to go as well. Seems like an SY pick and could have good upside. Really hope he stays long enough. DeBrusk is my forward pick, as he could very well be another Erne on the way IMO. But somebody will take him way earlier because of his name.

Plenty of highly talented, dimutive forwards and good defenders available for our 2nd pick. Well and there is always Robin Kovacs.. My personal under the radar steal.. Would really love to get him (just like I hoped for Point last summer).

And for the sake of god neveer ever draft Carlo SFY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[HoseEmDown]

This. Juulsen is my guy to go as well. Seems like an SY pick and could have good upside. Really hope he stays long enough. DeBrusk is my forward pick, as he could very well be another Erne on the way IMO. But somebody will take him way earlier because of his name.

Plenty of highly talented, dimutive forwards and good defenders available for our 2nd pick. Well and there is always Robin Kovacs.. My personal under the radar steal.. Would really love to get him (just like I hoped for Point last summer).

And for the sake of god neveer ever draft Carlo SFY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Juulsen will not be around when we pick or I would've picked him. Think he's the Sanheim of this draft and will go pretty early.

I want to get a big forward in the 1st because of the small skilled forwards available later, we need size.

What if he falls to Bostons pick? Value wise it's not bad. We could use a big body like that unless you think Dotchin is a similar player?

 

[Jacko95]

Juulsen will not be around when we pick or I would've picked him. Think he's the Sanheim of this draft and will go pretty early.

I want to get a big forward in the 1st because of the small skilled forwards available later, we need size.

What if he falls to Bostons pick? Value wise it's not bad. We could use a big body like that unless you think Dotchin is a similar player?

I had to reread your post a few times to know what is about what player, but I hope I got it right

I see where you come from with the Sanheim comparison and well he was actually the guy I wanted last summer with the 19th overall. That said Sanheim was already rated around 20 and Juulsen is rated (again) right around where we pick, but you are right chances are that he goes higher than ranked. Well lets hope he doesn't.

I agree that a big forward would be a good way to go, however depending on how the draft plays out I am not sure many will be there. Denis Guryanov is probably our best bet at a bigger guy with upside. However he has yet to develop a mean streak afaik. Outside of Bittner there are no real power forwards available past the top15. Maybe Meier could be included as he likes to play with an edge but it would be a huge miracle if he falls to us.

I want nothing to do with Carlo, he has bust written all over him...

 

[Todd1a]

stevie will move up and draft another great russian goalie! Ilya Samsonov

 

[HoseEmDown]

stevie will move up and draft another great russian goalie! Ilya Samsonov

Why? It's just about the last thing we need. We could get Blackwood or Booth in the 2nd or 3rd if we wanted a goalie early. If we go goalie it needs to be 5th round or later.

 

[Todd1a]

Why? It's just about the last thing we need. We could get Blackwood or Booth in the 2nd or 3rd if we wanted a goalie early. If we go goalie it needs to be 5th round or later.

stack goalies like crazy trade bait

 

[HoseEmDown]

stack goalies like crazy trade bait

Too bad that they don't carry the same value as forwards or D. You'd be losing every trade unless you get a late round guy and flip him for a higher pick.

 

[Rschmitz]

Carlo is raw, but that's a homerun pick if I've ever seen one. Even if he doesn't pan out, I could see him being a bottom pairing type guy. If he hits his ceiling, he'd be a lot like Seabrook, which is exactly what we need.

He's not Dotchin, I like Dotchin a lot, but Carlo has wheels and is bigger.

 

[Hoek]

I wouldn't be in favor of moving up just to get Samsonov. I only picked him because he was still on the board. For me it's not so much about trade bait (considering what we fetched Bishop for, it's not much), but making sure we don't have to waste a crazy amount of cap on goaltending and having an insurance policy.

 

[Major4Boarding]

Carlo is raw, but that's a homerun pick if I've ever seen one. Even if he doesn't pan out, I could see him being a bottom pairing type guy. If he hits his ceiling, he'd be a lot like Seabrook, which is exactly what we need.

He's not Dotchin, I like Dotchin a lot, but Carlo has wheels and is bigger.

I wholeheartedly (and respectfully) disagree with this entire assessment on Carlo. For a kid his size and skating ability, he shouldn't be allowing players he's covering break away from him (down low and along the boards) like he's a wet paper bag.

 

[DFC]

I have no real clue about this year's crop, but it feels like a good year to move up modestly. We're in a weird position where we might actually have too many NHL-ready prospects. I wouldn't mind us moving one of them out to pick up a draft pick, thus giving us someone a little further out, when we might need him.

I'm not too comfortable with Namestnikov's waiver status, for instance. We can't send him down, but it'll be hard for him to have much of a role with the NHL club next year.

 

[Todd1a]

I have no real clue about this year's crop, but it feels like a good year to move up modestly. We're in a weird position where we might actually have too many NHL-ready prospects. I wouldn't mind us moving one of them out to pick up a draft pick, thus giving us someone a little further out, when we might need him.

I'm not too comfortable with Namestnikov's waiver status, for instance. We can't send him down, but it'll be hard for him to have much of a role with the NHL club next year.

Ya but they can send drouin down to the ahl this year

 

[Rschmitz]

I wholeheartedly (and respectfully) disagree with this entire assessment on Carlo. For a kid his size and skating ability, he shouldn't be allowing players he's covering break away from him (down low and along the boards) like he's a wet paper bag.

I've never seen him play, but the scouting reports sound like he's a high risk/reward type guy, which is what i mean by a homerun pick.

 

[Jacko95]

I've never seen him play, but the scouting reports sound like he's a high risk/reward type guy, which is what i mean by a homerun pick.

I will just leave this here for you, as I have written about it in the Draft thread (doesn't this talk belong their anyways?)

I just found this article about defenders (especially defensive defenders) taken early in the draft and their success story:
http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/201...and-draft.html

Very interesting stuff and does indeed show a very clear result (with some outliers of course).

I will sum it up in short:
The writer took a look into every CHL defender drafted in the first three round between 1998 and 2008. The results are that the likelyhood to become an NHL regular (defintion: played 40% or more of the possible games since your draft day) is ~1 to 10 if the player has scored under a 0.6PPG rate in his draft season (CHL ONLY!!). The only guys to make it out of that group seem to be guys that have great skating, but for whatever reason just didn't scored in their draft year. All of them had huge breakout season within their junior career. To name them: Weber, Myers, Coburn, Vlasic, Letang, Staal, Phaneuf and Travis Hamonic.
Guys that are on their way to join that list are zadorov and Morin. Both also known for their great skating (especially for their size).

So the conclusion for me is, never draft a slow skating defender with less then 0.6PPG in their draft year out of the CHL. Taking a look into this years draft, we should NOT draft the following guys early:
Brandon Carlo
Matt Spencer
Simon Bourque (is right around 0.6PPG)
Jason Bell
Guillaume Brisbois
Austin Strand
Brendan Guhle

Those are the guys out of the draftside top90 that do play under 0.6 PPG in the CHL, though none of them is really known to be a bad skater. This might be due to the modern hockey having much more mobile defenders, or it is just a lucky year. Anyway even with most of them being good skaters and non ranked in the first round, chances are quit high that all will. You can obvious luck out on one of them just like you can on most prospects, but after that article I would rather search my luck somewhere else.

But keep in mind that we are talking here about NHL regulars and not about them never even sniffing the NHL.
Talking about our very own guys, it makes Blujus primed to become a bottom pairing guy, that most likely will not last long. Koekkeok is obviously on the right side of this theory and we haven't drafted any other CHL defenders early.

If you want a bigger defender, go for Ryan Pilon. He is the forgotten warrior. He is the linemate of Ivan Provorov and was rated higher than him at the beginning of the year. Because of Provorovs faboulus season, everybody looked at him and Pilon slipped and slipped. His numbers are good and he offers everything you are looking for. The big question is, was he the Palat that helped Coutourier and nobody noticed or is he feeding of Provorov big time.
Either way he is worth a chance IMO and could be a home run pick in the 2nd or even likely in the 3rd.

 

[Coopers Gum]

I will just leave this here from you, as I ahve written about it in the Draft thread (doesn't this talk belong their anyways?)


If you want a bigger defender, go for Ryan Pilon. He is the forgotten warrior. He is the linemate of Ivan Provorov and was rated higher than him at the beginning of the year. Because of Provorovs faboulus season, everybody looked at him and Pilon slipped and slipped. His numbers are good and he offers everything you are looking for. The big question is, was he the Palat that helped Coutourier and nobody noticed or is he feeding of Provorov big time.
Either way he is worth a chance IMO and could be a home run pick in the 2nd or even likely in the 3rd.

Ryan Pilon? Good god, I can hear the bashing of the name already.

 

[DaBolts]

D - Jacob Larsson

Hands down. He's got that transition game which makes Cooper's system work.