Klefbom's effect on Hall and Drai's production

[KarmaPolice]

Didn't see a Klefbom player discussion thread, but this really has more to do than just him, anyway. Thought you guys might be interested in this.

So both Hall and Drai have obviously slowed down the past couple months. Just for fun, I decided to look at their production both with and without Klefbom in the lineup. This isn't scientific, and there's no cherry picking of stats. It's just all the games and all the points with and without Klefbom in the lineup for Hall and Drai -- I also added Nuge just as a random guy for fun.

Drai
Games with Klefbom in the lineup: 20
Amount of points in those 20 games: 26
Points per game AVG with Klef: 1.30 PPG

Games WIHOUT Klef in the lineup: 35
Points in those games: 18
PPG WIHOUT Klef: 0.51 PPG

---

Hall
Games with Klef: 30
Points: 34
PPG with Klef: 1.13

Games without Klef: 35
Points: 19
PPG without Klef: 0.54 PPG

---

Nuge
Games with Klef: 29
Points: 20
PPG with Klef: 0.69 (about his career PPG average)

Games without Klef: 17
Points: 10
PPG without Klef: 0.59 (about 13 points below his career PPG average)

---

Like I said, this is just for fun, and doesn't necessarily prove that Klefbom was the reason for their success. I don't have the charts to see if Klef was regularly on the ice when they played, but just by Klef taking on the hard comp it could've opened things up for these guys. It's hard to say for sure. I just know, as we all know, that Drai and Hall have slowed down a lot, and was curious about the production with and without Klef in the lineup.

Now, if this was Nurse, I know everyone here would be super positive about this, and be going nuts about how great he is. Because it's Klef, I expect a lot of excuses and 'ifs' and 'buts', as it's always been a huge uphill battle with him with regards to most Oiler fans. But I didn't expect too much to be read into this, anyway; I did it for fun. And no, I don't think it has anything to do with McDavid; they are still struggling just as much even with McDavid back in the lineup. In fact, that's why I picked Nuge as a 3rd random choice: because he doesn't play with McDavid, so his production isn't directly helped much for good or bad. That's also why I think Eberle is a bad selection to do this with: He's now been playing with McDavid for a while now, and so his production has shot up lately compared to earlier in the year because of playing with McD. McD himself is also a bad choice, as it's only logical that he'd get better as the year went on, and learned how to produce at the NHL level. Anyway, so maybe the production rates for Hall and Drai have something to do with Klefbom and that his loss has greatly affected their ability to produce points, or maybe not. But I like doing this stuff, as I find it interesting, so even if it's worth nothing I had fun.

While this isn't scientific, I do believe there is something to this. Remember that this was only Klefbom's 2nd full NHL season, and he was already our best defender in all situations by very early in the season. If he has a healthy season next season, people are finally going to see why I say Klefbom's so special. It's the staying healthy part that seems to be the trickiest part, unfortunately...

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[LaGu]

According to behindthenet.ca Hall is Klefbom's most common line mate 5v5 (40%) and second most common line mate 5v4 (83%). Drai is Klefbom's 6th most common line mate 5v5 (24%) and fifth most common line mate 5v4 (45%).

It is always (imo) more interesting to turn that around though, i.e. to see how much of Hall's and Drai's TOI was with Klefbom since you are actually looking at their performance and not Klefbom, but I don't know how to see that only for the games they played together. Worth noting is that despite the time missed by Klefbom he is still Hall's 5th most common line mate, 24%, 5v5 and 7th most common line mare 5v4, 32% (similar numbers for Drai).

 

[KarmaPolice]

According to behindthenet.ca Hall is Klefbom's most common line mate 5v5 (40%) and second most common line mate 5v4 (83%). Drai is Klefbom's 6th most common line mate 5v5 (24%) and fifth most common line mate 5v4 (45%).

It is always (imo) more interesting to turn that around though, i.e. to see how much of Hall's and Drai's TOI was with Klefbom since you are actually looking at their performance and not Klefbom, but I don't know how to see that only for the games they played together. Worth noting is that despite the time missed by Klefbom he is still Hall's 5th most common line mate, 24%, 5v5 and 7th most common line mare 5v4, 32% (similar numbers for Drai).

Also have to keep in mind, that even for the time they didn't play on the ice together, if Klefbom was taking the hard comp without them, he would arguably be opening up the ice for them for their shifts with easier comp. Just shows how much you lose when you lose your best defender. It's a cascading effects that is felt in tons of different ways, from matchups, to younger guys being thrust into playing bigger roles they aren't ready for yet, and not being nearly as efficient as the 'go-to' guy, which in our case is Klefbom. But that is interesting that Klef played so much with Hall and Drai. Puts more weight behind Klefbom helping them produce when he's available, and when they don't have a D of his caliber moving the puck up the ice they just can't produce at nearly the same level. In fact, their production rates are over TWICE what they are with him compared to without him. Also logical to assume this stuff, but it's always good to see some actual, tangible proof. I'm sticking by my guns and saying that Klef is the last of our D we should be looking at moving. Nurse would actually be one of my first candidates to move for an upgrade (if our trading partner absolutely insists on a young D in return). I have my reasons why, that I think are very logical, but I don't want to side-track this thread right now.

 

[Draiskull]

Klefbom's 12 points:

Goal - Assist - 2nd Assist
Klefbom - Pouliot-Yakupov
Hall- Klefbom-Hendricks
Hall - RNH-Klefbom
Nurse-Klefbom-Pouliot
Draisiatl- Hall-Klefbom
Klefbom- Pouliot-Yakupov
Eberle- Nuge-Klefbom
Klefbom- Nuge-Draisaitl
Pucell - Klefbom-Draisiatl
Hall - Klefbom-Purcell
Klefbom- Purcell-Draisaitl
Gazdic - Klefbom-Lander

Looks like evenly spread out but most of his points were indeed scored with Hall-Drai involved in scoring

 

[McDNicks17]

From Puckalytics.com:

Hall+Drai+Klef = 109 5v5 minutes, 7 GF, 4 GA, 3.84 GF/60, 2.19 GA/60
Hall+Drai-Klef = 604 5v5 minutes, 27 GF, 26 GA, 2.68 GF/60, 2.58 GA/60


Definitely an effect, but kind of a small sample size.

 

[CornKicker]

interesting i would have thought the real impact was when RNH went down.

 

[doulos]

This is why the Oilers are going nowhere unless they massively overhaul the blueline. Like so many of us have been saying. Austin Matthews/Patrick Laine won't help the Oilers in meaningful ways. Top end defensemen will, in massive ways.

When you remove a player like Schultz - the whole team improves.
When you add a player like Klefbom - the whole team improves.

 

[McDNicks17]

Klefbom seems to be the only defenseman that has actually produced some points while playing with Hall/Drai.

Sek+Nurse+Fayne+Davidson = 6 points in 1172 5v5 minutes when with Hall
Klefbom = 5 points in 192 5v5 minutes when with Hall

It's probably one of the reasons why Drai/Hall lead the league in IPP. When a goal is scored while they're on the ice, they get a point on it 92/91% of the time.

 

[Aceboogie]

Watch out for shooting %. Draisaitl was shooting above 20% in his first 20-25 games in NHL. His and Halls point totals will be inflated due to that. The last 20 games its sunk back down to normal (even a bit unlucky). However, maybe it was Klefbom making LD better off, but ill chalk it up to luck.

Id be interested to see the shot metrics

Not to suprising. Klefbom is really good. He is a very good puck manager and puck mover. He gets the puck going north pretty fast and this results in a ton of good break ins for teammates

 

[Aceboogie]

This is why the Oilers are going nowhere unless they massively overhaul the blueline. Like so many of us have been saying. Austin Matthews/Patrick Laine won't help the Oilers in meaningful ways. Top end defensemen will, in massive ways.

When you remove a player like Schultz - the whole team improves.
When you add a player like Klefbom - the whole team improves.

Oh, they are going to help in a very meaningful way. You add another D like Klefbom (Hamonic/Vat) and suddenly you have a D core with 4 top 4 D (Klefbom, new D, Davidson, Sekera) and then add another in FA for safetty (Davidson regresses, injury)

 

[McDNicks17]

Watch out for shooting %. Draisaitl was shooting above 20% in his first 20-25 games in NHL. His and Halls point totals will be inflated due to that. The last 20 games its sunk back down to normal (even a bit unlucky). However, maybe it was Klefbom making LD better off, but ill chalk it up to luck.

Id be interested to see the shot metrics

Not to suprising. Klefbom is really good. He is a very good puck manager and puck mover. He gets the puck going north pretty fast and this results in a ton of good break ins for teammates

Puckalytics had some shot metrics.

I think Hall/Drai's was 52ish% as far as Corsi went with and without Klefbom. Klefbom's took a small hit without Hall/Drai, IIRC.

 

[McAsuno]

Nice find. Should put it in the Worlds thread where Hall's getting bashed upon once AGAIN. Give guys like Hall a strong puck mover and the results show for it.

 

[tikkanen]

Didn't see a Klefbom player discussion thread, but this really has more to do than just him, anyway. Thought you guys might be interested in this.

So both Hall and Drai have obviously slowed down the past couple months. Just for fun, I decided to look at their production both with and without Klefbom in the lineup. This isn't scientific, and there's no cherry picking of stats. It's just all the games and all the points with and without Klefbom in the lineup for Hall and Drai -- I also added Nuge just as a random guy for fun.

Drai
Games with Klefbom in the lineup: 20
Amount of points in those 20 games: 26
Points per game AVG with Klef: 1.30 PPG

Games WIHOUT Klef in the lineup: 35
Points in those games: 18
PPG WIHOUT Klef: 0.51 PPG

---

Hall
Games with Klef: 30
Points: 34
PPG with Klef: 1.13

Games without Klef: 35
Points: 19
PPG without Klef: 0.54 PPG

---

Nuge
Games with Klef: 29
Points: 20
PPG with Klef: 0.69 (about his career PPG average)

Games without Klef: 17
Points: 10
PPG without Klef: 0.59 (about 13 points below his career PPG average)

---

Like I said, this is just for fun, and doesn't necessarily prove that Klefbom was the reason for their success. I don't have the charts to see if Klef was regularly on the ice when they played, but just by Klef taking on the hard comp it could've opened things up for these guys. It's hard to say for sure. I just know, as we all know, that Drai and Hall have slowed down a lot, and was curious about the production with and without Klef in the lineup.

Now, if this was Nurse, I know everyone here would be super positive about this, and be going nuts about how great he is. Because it's Klef, I expect a lot of excuses and 'ifs' and 'buts', as it's always been a huge uphill battle with him with regards to most Oiler fans. But I didn't expect too much to be read into this, anyway; I did it for fun. And no, I don't think it has anything to do with McDavid; they are still struggling just as much even with McDavid back in the lineup. In fact, that's why I picked Nuge as a 3rd random choice: because he doesn't play with McDavid, so his production isn't directly helped much for good or bad. That's also why I think Eberle is a bad selection to do this with: He's now been playing with McDavid for a while now, and so his production has shot up lately compared to earlier in the year because of playing with McD. McD himself is also a bad choice, as it's only logical that he'd get better as the year went on, and learned how to produce at the NHL level. Anyway, so maybe the production rates for Hall and Drai have something to do with Klefbom and that his loss has greatly affected their ability to produce points, or maybe not. But I like doing this stuff, as I find it interesting, so even if it's worth nothing I had fun.

While this isn't scientific, I do believe there is something to this. Remember that this was only Klefbom's 2nd full NHL season, and he was already our best defender in all situations by very early in the season. If he has a healthy season next season, people are finally going to see why I say Klefbom's so special. It's the staying healthy part that seems to be the trickiest part, unfortunately...

Can you do similar stats for drai and hall with Davidson? Seems to me he wasn't around with Klef and is the same type of responsible defender with good puck moving ability. Should be similar stats IMHO.

 

[McAsuno]

Can you do similar stats for drai and hall with Davidson? Seems to me he wasn't around with Klef and is the same type of responsible defender with good puck moving ability. Should be similar stats IMHO.

To be fair, I noticed Davidson progressing with more games played. Klefbom's been the best d whenever healthy. Although Davidson has Jake Muzzin's career ceiling by the way he's been tracking, so looks like we may have another gem that has panned out. I wonder how Klefbom and Davidson would look together.

 

[Beerfish]

Almost no effect at all, Klefbom gets better and better the longer he stays out, will be a norris winner before long.

A better metric would be RNH being out.

McDavid and Eberle are faceless winger are doing just fine without klefbom.

Drai has hit a bit of a wall, Hall is playing terrible (for him), they weren't getting much out of their now departed winger, facing some tougher matchups due to RNh being out.

 

[scb23]

interesting i would have thought the real impact was when RNH went down.

Agreed. Nuge was eating up some tough minutes. Much harder for Drai and Hall with him down. Klef out hurts too. They'll bounce back.

 

[Aceboogie]

Almost no effect at all, Klefbom gets better and better the longer he stays out, will be a norris winner before long.

A better metric would be RNH being out.

McDavid and Eberle are faceless winger are doing just fine without klefbom.

Drai has hit a bit of a wall, Hall is playing terrible (for him), they weren't getting much out of their now departed winger, facing some tougher matchups due to RNh being out.

Playing majority of time with Davidson, whom is playing pretty great himself

Not sure how you get no effect at all, when it gacet, the stats show there is

 

[Suxnet]

Almost no effect at all, Klefbom gets better and better the longer he stays out, will be a norris winner before long.

Yeah, I don't really understand how players get better and better in the eyes of some fans while they're not playing. Happened to Eberle, happening to Nuge, and it's happening to Klefbom as well. I think Klefbom is good, but I strongly disagree(d) with the notion that he's more important to the team than McDavid, or w/e people were saying.

 

[McDNicks17]

Hall+Drai at 5v5:

Month|GF/60|GA/60|ONSH%|ONSV%|CF%
Nov|3.38|2.03|9.35|.923|54.6
Dec|3.40|2.78|9.65|.910|49.9
Jan|2.36|4.73|7.35|.791|57.3
Feb|1.77|1.77|6.94|.945|48.3

Three Weeks Before and After Klefbom Injury:

Time|GF/60|GA/60|ONSH%|ONSV%|CF%
Before(Nov20-Dec11)|3.56|1.98|10.34|.918|53.8
After(Dec12-Jan02)|2.18|2.18|5.62|.929|51.3

Three Weeks Before and After RNH Injury:

Time|GF/60|GA/60|ONSH%|ONSV%|CF%
Before(Dec28-Jan18)|1.60|4.27|4.76|.837|53.4
After(Jan18-Feb09)|2.40|4.80|7.41|.840|56.5

(Credit to puckalytics.com/superwowy.html for the numbers)