Klefbom A Great Gamble

[OHLFan90]

http://overtimesportsnation.com/klefbom-a-great-gamble/

Click to read more...

 

[McRobbiezyg]

until he gets injured again! oh wait

 

[LTIR]

everything long term is a gamble.
Sekera is a greater gamble considering his age and considering Klefbom is already as good as him.

 

[Aerrol]

...you're not ChaoticOrange...

 

[Aerchon]

Hope the guy saying Klefbom played top pairing/tough competition reads this.

Good article that seems decently impartial.

 

[CupofOil]

Sekera is a greater gamble considering his age and considering Klefbom is already as good as him.

Based on what?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

...you're not ChaoticOrange...

ChaoticOrange has been busy

I'll have more stuff out soon.

Article's not bad, but really reads like the writer hasn't seen much of Klefbom at all.

 

[Aerchon]

ChaoticOrange has been busy

I'll have more stuff out soon.

Article's not bad, but really reads like the writer hasn't seen much of Klefbom at all.

To each their own but isn't there at least a chance you might just be a bit love blinded about Klefbom?

Everyone has their favorites and it's just normal to give a bit more credit to those you like.

 

[Aceboogie]

Love Klefbom. Got wrinkles in his game but what 21-22 year old D doesnt? espeically since hes played on the leagues worst D core with little help from forwards or goaltending

If Klefbom played for Chicago, St.Lious or New York hed be future Norris winner. But even on Edmonton he continues to grow. Got crazy good tools

 

[ChaoticOrange]

To each their own but isn't there at least a chance you might just be a bit love blinded about Klefbom?

Everyone has their favorites and it's just normal to give a bit more credit to those you like.

I suppose, but it would seem that Chiarelli thinks similarly, and I could do a lot worse than valuing Klefbom the same way a cup winning GM does.

 

[nabob]

I suppose, but it would seem that Chiarelli thinks similarly, and I could do a lot worse than valuing Klefbom the same way a cup winning GM does.

Toronto traded for Marincin... doesn't say much for his value I guess if a team that hasn't won a cup in forever traded for him.

 

[Aerchon]

I suppose, but it would seem that Chiarelli thinks similarly, and I could do a lot worse than valuing Klefbom the same way a cup winning GM does.

Actually if you watch the interview with Chiarelli he mentions "you have to trust your personal" about a dozen times (exaggerating intentionally) about the Klefbom signing. He said he likes him as well but this certainly was not a move that Chiarelli hand crafted.

Before anyone claims I hate Klefbom.

I am loving his game so far. Mistakes few and far between. So far he is having a strong camp and hopefully it carries into the regular season.

 

[Aerchon]

Toronto traded for Marincin... doesn't say much for his value I guess if a team that hasn't won a cup in forever traded for him.

I wasn't following him at all until someone asked about him the other day and when I last checked he was having a strong camp and leaf fans are curious how they got him for so little. Not sure why others keep bringing him up. Very strange.

 

[BelowTheIce]

ChaoticOrange has been busy

I'll have more stuff out soon.

Article's not bad, but really reads like the writer hasn't seen much of Klefbom at all.

I was at 25 home games last year. Just curious why you think that?

 

[PaPaDee]

And he's hurt, unfortunately I think that will be a consistent theme over the coming years.

 

[Classicnamesup]

I am very cautious about that term, his game could use some work for that kind of contract

 

[BelowTheIce]

I am very cautious about that term, his game could use some work for that kind of contract

But the dollar amount is so safe, worst case scenario is you slightly overpayed.

 

[LaGu]

Hope the guy saying Klefbom played top pairing/tough competition reads this.

Good article that seems decently impartial.

I gave numbers to back up my posts, and he did play alot of tough competition. Again, go back to our exchanges if you will.

What I looked at specifically was time on ice vs opposition's 1C. I also addressed the QoC number which is not perfect (neither is my method obviously). On any given night Klefbom could spend 40-50 % of his ice time against Getzlaf and the rest against 3-4C. On the other hand, Getzlaf (having much lower EV TOI) spent 60-70% of his ice time matched up against Klefbom. That was, and is, all I have ever said about this and it was to make certain posters understand that just because your QoC is in the middle it does not mean you are not faced with top competition regularly.


Edit: If You remember this all began because posters were throwing out advanced stats and imo it didn't correspond to what I saw when actually watching the games. But to each his own.

 

[Throttlehead]

And he's hurt, unfortunately I think that will be a consistent theme over the coming years.

If you ask players to block shots there is a really good chance they come up lame on occasion. You can't fault a player for being hurt from a blocked shot (which I THINK is the case this time ?).

 

[Fourier]

I gave numbers to back up my posts, and he did play alot of tough competition. Again, go back to our exchanges if you will.

What I looked at specifically was time on ice vs opposition's 1C. I also addressed the QoC number which is not perfect (neither is my method obviously). On any given night Klefbom could spend 40-50 % of his ice time against Getzlaf and the rest against 3-4C. On the other hand, Getzlaf (having much lower EV TOI) spent 60-70% of his ice time matched up against Klefbom. That was, and is, all I have ever said about this and it was to make certain posters understand that just because your QoC is in the middle it does not mean you are not faced with top competition regularly.


Edit: If You remember this all began because posters were throwing out advanced stats and imo it didn't correspond to what I saw when actually watching the games. But to each his own.

It is amazing to me that people hang their hat on QoC when it is actually very easy to simply look at who a player is on the ice against. Of all the advanced stats out there QoC seems to me to be one of the least likely to accurately reflect what it is suppose to say about an individual.

For example Shea Weber was 700th in CorsiRel last year. So it would seem that as far as quality of competition goes if a forward had to face Shea Weber a lot it would actually huirt his QoC a fair bit. In contrast if that same forward saw a lot of Matt Hunwick his QoC would rise since Hunwick has one of the best CorsiRel's out there. Of course you would have had an even better advantage playing against both Weber and Josi since Josi's CorsiRel was worse than Weber's.

And for a defenseman, it would seem that a tough assignment last year would have been facing Sam Gagner since Sammy was 27th in the NHL in CorsiRel amongst skaters with 50+ games played. In contrast, Tyler Johnson is ranked much lower so if you played against him you are getting a break it seems. In fact, since the stat is weighted by time you would have to play against Johnson for 2 minutes to compensate for every minute vs Gagner.

Indeed the weighting means that if you play against an outlier (either + or -) it can impact your score a fair bit. Roughly speaking 1 minute against Mark Alt is essentially the equivalent to 45 minutes vs Ryan Getzlaf in terms of difficulty of assignment. And if you played a minute against Colin Fraser you would have to play 43 minutes against Geztlaf just to neutralize the impact of Fraser on your QoC. More sprecisely, for this calculation these two assignments are essentially equal.

Player 1) 1 minute vs Colin Fraser and 43 minutes vs Ryan Getzlaf

Player 2) 44 minutes vs Rob Klinkhammer.

 

[Aerchon]

I gave numbers to back up my posts, and he did play alot of tough competition. Again, go back to our exchanges if you will.

What I looked at specifically was time on ice vs opposition's 1C. I also addressed the QoC number which is not perfect (neither is my method obviously). On any given night Klefbom could spend 40-50 % of his ice time against Getzlaf and the rest against 3-4C. On the other hand, Getzlaf (having much lower EV TOI) spent 60-70% of his ice time matched up against Klefbom. That was, and is, all I have ever said about this and it was to make certain posters understand that just because your QoC is in the middle it does not mean you are not faced with top competition regularly.


Edit: If You remember this all began because posters were throwing out advanced stats and imo it didn't correspond to what I saw when actually watching the games. But to each his own.

No worries.

I had given various examples on elite players that were not on your list plus pointed out how without comparing your numbers to guys like Fayne, Marincin, and Petry that the picture you were painting was incomplete.

To each thier own of course, and stats can be interpreted in many ways, especially without context. But, you did come off as if you were stating facts so it's great to see something like this article to give some perspective.

 

[Supermassive]

LaGu clearly states the misleading nature of the Vollman Sledgehammer in Klefbom's case. The other advanced stats the author included were praising Klefbom.

You might have to accept that LaGu's analysis is closer to reality than yours is, and that the player that you're supposedly a fan of, but continue to dog (and in fact try to dominate discussion of in every thread he's brought up) might just be better than you give him credit for with your anecdotes of poor individual plays by the rookie partner of Justin Schultz.

How's Marincin?

 

[Aerchon]

LaGu clearly states the misleading nature of the Vollman Sledgehammer in Klefbom's case. The other advanced stats the author included were praising Klefbom.

You might have to accept that LaGu's analysis is closer to reality than yours is, and that the player that you're supposedly a fan of, but continue to dog (and in fact try to dominate discussion of in every thread he's brought up) might just be better than you give him credit for with your anecdotes of poor individual plays by the rookie partner of Justin Schultz.

How's Marincin?

I honestly don't know how to respond to this.

Everyone has their own spin I guess, although I am not even remotely following yours.

How is Marincin doing?

 

[LaGu]

It is amazing to me that people hang their hat on QoC when it is actually very easy to simply look at who a player is on the ice against. Of all the advanced stats out there QoC seems to me to be one of the least likely to accurately reflect what it is suppose to say about an individual.

For example Shea Weber was 700th in CorsiRel last year. So it would seem that as far as quality of competition goes if a forward had to face Shea Weber a lot it would actually huirt his QoC a fair bit. In contrast if that same forward saw a lot of Matt Hunwick his QoC would rise since Hunwick has one of the best CorsiRel's out there. Of course you would have had an even better advantage playing against both Weber and Josi since Josi's CorsiRel was worse than Weber's.

And for a defenseman, it would seem that a tough assignment last year would have been facing Sam Gagner since Sammy was 27th in the NHL in CorsiRel amongst skaters with 50+ games played. In contrast, Tyler Johnson is ranked much lower so if you played against him you are getting a break it seems. In fact, since the stat is weighted by time you would have to play against Johnson for 2 minutes to compensate for every minute vs Gagner.

Indeed the weighting means that if you play against an outlier (either + or -) it can impact your score a fair bit. Roughly speaking 1 minute against Mark Alt is essentially the equivalent to 45 minutes vs Ryan Getzlaf in terms of difficulty of assignment. And if you played a minute against Colin Fraser you would have to play 43 minutes against Geztlaf just to neutralize the impact of Fraser on your QoC. More sprecisely, for this calculation these two assignments are essentially equal.

Player 1) 1 minute vs Colin Fraser and 43 minutes vs Ryan Getzlaf

Player 2) 44 minutes vs Rob Klinkhammer.

Thanks for providing insight in this issue. I actually used QoC quite a bit in the past, but last season I had to take a closer look since it did not reflect what I was seeing.

 

[LaGu]

No worries.

I had given various examples on elite players that were not on your list plus pointed out how without comparing your numbers to guys like Fayne, Marincin, and Petry that the picture you were painting was incomplete.

To each thier own of course, and stats can be interpreted in many ways, especially without context. But, you did come off as if you were stating facts so it's great to see something like this article to give some perspective.

I actually don't recall that ...

But I will take a look again. The stats I gave was mostly about Klefbom against 1C, but it was also definitely put in perspective since I did the same exercise for Marincin.

I will come back to this in a couple of weeks. Right now I am in paternity leave so I have more important things on mind than pulling up this stats.
Cheers.