Keep 8

Discussion in 'General Fantasy Talk' started by Zorro, Aug 17, 2017.

View Users: View Users
  1. Zorro

    Zorro Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2011
    Messages:
    702
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Background: Last year I tried "going all in" and fell short so I actually have no picks until the 4th round :laugh: Anyhow, our rules state that we can keep 3 forwards, 2 Ds, 1 goalie and 2 wild cards (any position) but can retain at most 2 goalies. Ideally I would like to trade my non-keepers for some picks but that's difficult.

    This is H2H league with 10 teams...stats kept and players below.

    I have an idea of who to keep but interested in other opinions. Thanks!

    Offense
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, HIT, BLK
    David Backes
    Jamie Benn
    Leon Draisaitl
    Nikolaj Ehlers
    Johnny Gaudreau
    Mikael Granlund
    Victor Hedman
    Phil Kessel
    John Klingberg
    Nikita Kucherov
    Alec Martinez
    Jake Muzzin
    Eric Staal
    Matthew Tkachuk
    Alexander Wennberg

    Goaltending
    W, GA, GAA, SV%,SHO
    Peter Budaj
    Devan Dubnyk
    Braden Holtby
     
  2. rangerssharks414

    rangerssharks414 Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2010
    Messages:
    29,493
    Likes Received:
    901
    Trophy Points:
    140
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    Bolded. I'd try to trade two of your players for a better player. It's pretty difficult to let go of Tkachuk and Gaudreau, but I think I'd do it. Ideally, I'd want to keep Dubnyk too, but I don't know which forward I'd throw back.
     
  3. Ultimate Bandwagon

    Ultimate Bandwagon Registered User

    Joined:
    May 26, 2013
    Messages:
    131
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Location:
    Montreal
    Not too sure what other teams look like, but below are some configurations you could look at.

    Set up 1 (Balance)

    This setup gives strong reliable goaltending. Good goalscoring and assist capabilities, and heavy on the PPP. They are also skaters that should fair pretty well in the +/- department.
    This gives you the oppurtunity to trade Gaudreau, I'm sure some team would trade a pick or two to acquire him. He's definite keeper potential for any team not stacked like yours. and in a keep-8 league, no player close to him will be available at the '9th' pick.

    Devan Dubnyk
    Brayden Holtby


    Victor Hedman
    John Klingberg

    Jamie Benn
    Leon Draisaitl
    Nikita Kucherov
    Matthew Tkachuk (solid all around categories player. Hits those PIMs way better than gaudreau, granlund, Ehlers)


    Setup 2 (all out offense)
    This setup should give you the edge in offensive categories every week.

    Brayden Holtby

    John Klingberg
    Victor Hedman

    Jamie Benn
    Leon Draisaitl
    Nikita Kucherov
    Johnny Gaudreau
    Nikolaj Ehlers

    In this option you can trade Dubnyk.
     
  4. Zorro

    Zorro Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2011
    Messages:
    702
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Thanks guys! Food for thought, that's for sure.

    I had these 3 too but then it gets fuzzy.
    Draisaitl
    Kucherov
    Benn

    For Ds..it's a no brainer:
    Hedman
    Klingberg

    Goalie(s)...for sure this guy:
    Holtby

    That leaves 2 spots that can be taken by:
    Dubnyk
    Tkachuk
    Gaudreau
    Ehlers
    Wennberg--> didn't include this guy at 1st but there's a good chance he plays with panarin.
     
  5. Tomas Tatahhh

    Tomas Tatahhh Devil's Advocate

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2008
    Messages:
    13,500
    Likes Received:
    1,093
    Trophy Points:
    179
    Location:
    Sherbrooke
    I would protect Johnny Hockey & Dubnyk if I were you. Minnesota will remain a force this year with their roster intacted and will play a ton of games. Johnny will be good for 70 pts and a lot of PPP.
     
  6. tmg

    tmg Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2003
    Messages:
    2,050
    Likes Received:
    119
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Ottawa
    If goalies are 5/14 categories and you not having a pick in the first three rounds, you've gotta keep both Holtby and Dubnyk. You stand to lose way too much ground in those categories if you enter the draft with only one starter and don't even have a chance to get a second one til round 4 (by which point all the worthwhile exposed ones will be long gone).

    What's your minimum starts per week? Maximum starts per night (IE, do you have one active goalie slot or two?) There are two big must-knows, especially with GA (I'm assuming fewer=better) being a category.
     
  7. Zorro

    Zorro Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2011
    Messages:
    702
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    51
    If Johnny can hit 70+ than he's a keeper for sure but given that he doesn't really contribute to PIM, hits etc... It makes fairly unidimensional if he goes on a dry spell like last year. I'd like to keep him but I'm on the fence. With Dubnyk, I'm more and more considering keeping him given my lack of picks at the top of the draft.

    I believe it's min 3 starts per week and max 2 per night. I'm leaning on keeping Dubnyk, which means my pick forwards need to be even more of a 'sure' bet.
     
  8. Tomas Tatahhh

    Tomas Tatahhh Devil's Advocate

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2008
    Messages:
    13,500
    Likes Received:
    1,093
    Trophy Points:
    179
    Location:
    Sherbrooke
    That's a fair point but those categories are a lot easier to fix later on with late picks imo.
     
  9. Zorro

    Zorro Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2011
    Messages:
    702
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    51
    That's true aswell, I guess it will depend on if I can trade one of my high end guys for a high pick.
     
  10. ConorMcGregor

    ConorMcGregor Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2010
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    261
    Trophy Points:
    95
    Location:
    Halifax
    THIS

    As soon as I saw the category spread and that you can keep 2 goalies, all other thoughts vanished. 35%+ of your categories decided by 2 players, you do not want one of those two players to be a backup goalie or Varlamov

    Keep Dubnyk+Holtby and work from there.

    Hedman + Klingberg are no brainers.

    Benn, Kucherov and Draisaitl are pretty much locks.

    Kessel vs Ehlers vs Gaudreau.
    Kessel is a creampuff for Peripherals and is the oldest as he is about to turn 30. He just had his best point season since 2013-14 with 70 but lowest goal total at 23. Adds nothing to PIM's, Hits or Blocks. Just posted his lowest SOG since he was 20(not counting lockout half season). On the PP however, he buried the other 2

    Gaudreau is also a creampuff for Peripherals. But is turning 24 so he is a consideration. He adds even less to Hits, PIM's and blocks than Kessel and he is not A SOG machine by any stretch. Under new coaching that is less offense oriented and with a season that saw injury, he still managed 18 goals and 61 points. Only 16 PPP.

    Ehlers is a huge young up and comer. Age 21, playing alongside other high end talent his own age in Scheifele/Laine. 25 goals and 64 points with over 200 SOG and had more hits and blocks than both others combined(Although it is still not better than average). Only 12 PPP, but the entire Jets roster sucks on the PP. With a coaching change expect this number to rise big.

    Other considerations, but not known commodities who could regress. Tkachuk and Granlund

    Granlund I am not sold on staying at this level. Outlier year or breakout year? Still not contributing to PIM's or SOG meaningfully, but had decent hits and blocks to go with his 69 points. I would not risk him

    Tkachuk. At 18 years old, showed himself to be a good peripheral contributorfor PIM's and hits, but not for SOG or Bks or PPP and had 48 points. I expect him to rise to 60 points at least this season. But risking a keeper spot on him? No. Its possible he can be redrafted in the 4th round

    Really I think Ehlers is the guy to go with in that 8th spot. Age, rising superstar playing alongside other rising superstars. Gaudreau would be acceptable too, but I like Laine/Scheifele/Ehlers for years to come more than I like Gaudreau/Monahan/????
     
  11. TooLegitToQuit

    TooLegitToQuit Loyal Habs Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2016
    Messages:
    20,423
    Likes Received:
    2,574
    Trophy Points:
    152
    Occupation:
    Civil Engineering
    Location:
    East Coast
    This is what I would protect.

    Leon Draisaitl (F)
    Nikita Kucherov (F)
    Jamie Benn (F)
    Johnny Gaudreau (W)

    Victor Hedman (D)
    John Klingberg (D)

    Braden Holtby (G)
    Devan Dubnyk (W)
     
  12. junyab

    junyab Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Messages:
    1,187
    Likes Received:
    250
    Trophy Points:
    81
    3F, 2D, 1G + 2 (any position)

    Jamie Benn
    Leon Draisaitl
    Nikolaj Ehlers
    Johnny Gaudreau
    Nikita Kucherov

    Victor Hedman
    John Klingberg

    Braden Holtby
     
  13. junyab

    junyab Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Messages:
    1,187
    Likes Received:
    250
    Trophy Points:
    81
    However, of the 5 goalie categories (W, GA, GAA, SV%,SHO), only 3 are cumulative (W, GA, SHO), 1 of which is actually negatively cumulative (GA), and one is a crapshoot (SHO).

    What I mean is your GAA and SV% do not improve with more starts. So 3 starts with 2.20 and .930 is the same as 8 starts. If low GA is beneficial, you stand to be best off with less starts as it should equal lower cumulative goals against. SHO's are very random (arguably, you could get the same number of SHOs with Holtby plus 2 backups, then Holtby and Dubnyk). Wins is the only goalie stat that would improve with more starts.
     
  14. tmg

    tmg Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2003
    Messages:
    2,050
    Likes Received:
    119
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Ottawa
    More starts allows you to find out earlier in the week if you're dominating them (and then you can get choosy with your late week starts). When you don't reach minimums early in a week you're committed to making late week starts even when you'd rather not.
     
  15. junyab

    junyab Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Messages:
    1,187
    Likes Received:
    250
    Trophy Points:
    81
    With only 3 starts per week you can be picky on your matchups from the get go.
     
  16. Zorro

    Zorro Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2011
    Messages:
    702
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Thank you everyone for the comments, i will keep it in mind when making my picks.
     

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"