We got a second round pick!
Can't write an entire essay just cause you disagree, and I've already mentioned why they will command top dollars in a few other posts, but the examples you have listed are not good comparison for a multitude of reason, either because some of them deliberately left money on the table (Gaudreau, Barkov), they're just not as good of players (Thomas, Connor, hertl..), or they were stupid and signed their extension way too early, like Hughes (arguable the best value contract, he's worth 10M+). As I have mentioned before in other posts, I just don't see Stutzle or Debrincat giving us any sort of discount, no one else has aside from Batherson, they will demand top dollars as Norris and Tkachuck got, and you will have to give it to them if you want to retain them and keep them happy here. They are also on the younger side and you'll be signing them for most of their prime, they're gonna want to cash in. Neither of them will get a number starting with 8, it will be 9 or 10. As much as I hate it, it's the reality. We'll need to face it sooner or later.Maybe I didn't specify, but it's because I thought it was obvious that all of these were bridge deals except Stutzle, DeBrincat and Zub
I'll repeat because it seems to have been completely overlooked : "My extensions below are very approximative, the important thing here is the overall total"
For example, I might have overpaid Zub at 5.0 (see below) because it gives me a margin for change. Ex : Stutzle at 8.5 + Zub at 4.5 = doesn't change the total.
1) Shane Pinto at 3.0? Pinto hasn't really played in the NHL yet, he's coming off a surgery and missed a FULL season. I think he'll be good but do you think he's going to put 50+ pts from the 3rd line without any PP time? If we kept Connor Brown maybe he would have been more productive (Brown is a monster at ES) but I don't see him breaking the bank on a BRIDGE deal after playing with Formenton and Joseph (if healthy)
2) Alex Formenton at 3.0? On a bridge? Why?
3) Mathieu Joseph at 3.0? Outside of his extremely small sample in Ottawa, his agent won't have any arguments for that AAV. His best move would be to sign short term and bet on himself. So that is why I am expecting around 2 years at 2.0, brings him directly to UFA.
4) Artem Zub at 5.5? What argument does Zub have to be paid above 5 M$? He's good but he doesn't put anywhere near the points necessary to justify such a high salary as 5.5... Chris Tanev (significantly better than Zub) signed a 4 years x 4.5 AAV contract just before 2020-21, and in Canada... I think Sens fans are overrating Zub because we haven't had many quality D-men in Ottawa in years!
5) Brannstrom at 2.5 AAV? lol why? If anything, I'd be shocked if he gets a dollar above 1.5 AAV
I can't give an extensive list because it takes too much space/time but here's a few random bridges examples :
Jesper Bratt 2 years x $2,750,000
Alexandre Texier 2 years x $1,525,000
Michael Rasmussen 3 years x $1,460,000
Brandon hagel 3 years x $1,500,000
Yegor Sharangovich 2 years x $2,000,000
Jacob Bryson 2 years x $1,850,000
Timothy Liljegren 2 years x $1,400,000
Enough? I could go on for a while
Stutzle/DeBrincat explained in the quote below
I was hoping I wouldn't have to do long explanations but that was naïve, we don't all work with the same information. I personally use Cap Friendly which helps me to analyze the NHL market. Look in the quote above to have a partial answer
I think you're really overvaluing what these RFAs have done last season (Brannstrom/Formenton/Joseph) or can do this season (Pinto). Of course this is assuming the Top-6 remains relatively healthy but you realize there's 6 forwards who are going to swallow every PP minute and offensive opportunity?
Which brings us to DeBrincat and Stutzle. I specified "accepting to be paid like the rest of the core". Of course this is not guaranteed, which brings us back to the initial point of the "overall total". Might have overpaid on some of them, in case Stu or ADB require more.
But before taking for granted that these 2 will cost 20 M$ per season, let's compare some recent extensions for star forwards :
Johnny Gaudreau 7 years x $9,750,000
Filip Forsberg 8 years x $8,500,000
Kevin Fiala 7 years x $7,875,000
Thomas Hertl 8 years x $8,137,500
Jack Hughes 8 years x $8,000,000
Mika Zibanejad 8 years x $8,500,000
Sean Couturier 8 years x $7,750,000
Kyle Connor 7 years x $7,142,857
Etc
Barkov signed at 10.0 AAV... Are you suggesting that ADB or Stutzle will be worth as much as Barkov? Damn, we're on our way to the Cup lol
I think the goal is clear that they target to have them around the 8 M$ mark, like the rest of the core (Chabot, Tkachuk, Norris). Just Batherson who was unlucky lol. I guess they'll all share his restaurant bills for the next 5 years lol
But that they achieve to have them at 16 M$ or not, there is still some wiggle room because a salary like Zaitsev will be removed for example (less expensive to dump next off-season)
You are correct, I forgot he had a monster year last year, but when he signed his contract a few years back he wasn't perceived as having that big of an upside. Haven't watched him this year, so I don't know if he really is a 90pt player or if it's an aberration, he was more of a 70pt player before. Regardless the point still stands, both Stutzle and Debrincat are looked at as high end talents entering their primes, and will command top dollars, certainly more than Norris and Tkachuck. If Debrincat only gets 68, then he just signs his 9M qualifying offer and waits it out another year until FA, someone will pay the man his money. If Stutzle only gets 70pts, then maybe you can lock him up for under 9M, but I'm doubtful on both, more likely he puts closer to 80pts and gets his bag. For the teams sake, I would love to be wrong and both get extended at 8M, but I don't think that's a realistic expectation at this point given what Norris just got.Sorry man, the NHL can't be explained in one liners!
Where are your posts where you explain why they will command more than the list of stars I have provided? Please provide link.
Not good comparisons? lol I haven't been "selective" at all. I have literally listed the most recent star contracts. I skipped Barkov because he's a CLEAR level above anyone else mentioned in this thread.
Also, how is Kyle Connor "not as good" for example?
So yes, there's a multi-verse where ADB and Stuzle will ask/get more than 9.0 AAV but what if Stutzle scores 70 points this season? Does he automatically get 9.0+? And DeBrincat. Let's say he scores 35 goals and 68 pts, does he get 10.0+ millions?
I'm not sure you're looking at the reality the realistic way.
www.capfriendly.com
He's still pretty young and fresh in the NHL. He's smart enough to work the PK. To me, that makes him an intelligent player. PK is pretty specialized. It means the coach doesn't see him as a defensive liability. When I think of "dumb" players, I think of those who are liabilities defensively.
I assumed we're talking long term deals, if it comes to that, then I'm suggesting 9M+ would be what Stutzle's camp will demand. If we're not willing to do that, then sure a bridge deal with lower aav is the alternative, but I prefer not to do that or the ask will probably be even higher when he's at the height of his prime. Same with Debrincat, ya, we can def just trade him and recoup assets back, but man would I hate for that to happen, it would mean that we're actually taking a step back and losing 2 years of team development with not much to show for it and no one to replace what he brings, and then Giroux is gone the following year, so Stutzle is back to being without wingers that can play at his level. That would be really painful for our team's progression. And yes, I do know Norris is elite goal scorer, like others have mentioned, only the 15th player under 22 to put up 35goals since the lockout. But Stutzle is on another level, and I have the feeling with the new additions, he's gonna take a huge step, and will be wanting alot more money.You're right, the Kyle Connor signing was in 2019. Didn't realize my list had dropped from 2021 to 2019 all of sudden (no forward signing at 7.0+ M$ for 7+ years between Hischier and Landeskog, almost 2 years!)
Contract Signings - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
NHL player contract signings presented in chronological order
Connor is an offensive Dynamo, best Jets player IMO. I prefer DeBrincat overall game but Connor is legit in the O-zone. He became a massive bargain
Would you sign a guy at 9 M$ after a 68 pts season? Because that's what Norris paced for and people are a bit outraged by 7.95 AAV. Norris is a 6'2 two-way center though and paced for 43 goals.
Trade DeBrincat if it goes the way you're talking about
Stutzle keep at all costs but he would need a major season to earn a 9.0+ contract. I think he might want a bridge to give himself a bit more time to prove himself and earn more (he's still very young)
Finally, if those are not good comparables, how exactly will we find the right comparables?
Edit : I think you quote me too quickly as I was still editing. You seem to have missed this :
Did you know that Norris has a higher GPG than DeBrincat since March 15th? And that he's a 6'2 center vs a 5'7 Winger? There might be some Norris underrating too
If he wants 10.0+, should have never acquire him in the first place.
Keep in mind players don't necessarily sign at their QO or more. Boeser just signed $850,000 under.
No way I'm paying ADB twice what Batherson makes. Trade him again, try to recover some assets and sign the best possible UFA.
Hopefully we can keep them all, not sure what the compromise would be, but PD didn't have any contract extension talks with Debrincat before acquiring him, he probably doesn't know either yet. Anything between 9-10M is still ok with me as long as it doesn't cost anyone significant and he clicks with the team. Not sure if it's feasible under the cap, but we'll find out next year.
