Jonathan Toews leads the entire league in CF60 5on5

[TheAngryHank]

Is CF60 anything like WD40?

 

[Spartachat]

Generational Player. Kopitar and Bergeron are minor leaguers.

 

[Cashville]

Did people overestimate Chicago's decline?

This is one of those times where objective statistical analysis needs to be balanced by basic intuition / "eye test". Forget the advanced numbers, just look at the standings:

109 pts, first in the Central last year
On pace for 80/81 pts this year, last in Central

Crow's injury is definitely a factor as he was having a stellar campaign until the vertigo issues, but they've absolutely regressed.

 

[Rolo]

2010-11
Primary line mate: Kane and a combination of Sharp, Brouwer and Stalberg.

2011-12
Primary line mates: Kane and a combination of Hossa, Stalberg, Sharp.
—

SPLIT UP FROM KANE

2012-13
Nearly played with Brandon Saad the entire season and Hossa, Kane, and Frolik.

2013-14
Nearly played the whole season with Sharp and Hossa, and sometimes Kane, Versteeg, Saad, Bickell, etc..

2014-15
Nearly played the entire season with Hossa and Saad, sometimes Sharp and Versteeg.
—

DOWNFALL BEGINS (SHARP AND SAAD gone, HOSSA declines)
2015-16 - Played most of the year with Hossa and Shaw/Teravainen on the wing.
2016-17 - Did not have consistent line-mates: Hossa, Panik, Schmaltz, Hartman, Hayden...
2017-18 - Saad/Panik for the most part of the year, Debrincat, Duclair, Hinostroza.

As you can SEE, quality of line-mates has gone down significantly and the numbers show.

He use to play with Patrick Kane for many years, a world class offensive player. When Kane got taken off his line, he got 75pt wingers in Sharp and Hossa, and Saad complemented those two.

Now, he does not have a Kane or prime Sharp/Hossa on his line. Saad will never be on that level, and throwing guys like Panik/Hartman on the wing makes a very poor offensive line.

Debrincat could be that guy, definitely not Duclair. But still, Toews was never known (IMO) for elite offensive ability. He probably looked better then he was (offensively) due to the supporting cast.

He will still a defensive beast, and super clutch player, able to go head to head agaisnt other teams top lines, but he’s a 55-60pt guy like Bergeron, BUT can have his numbers elevated with better line mates. (Think Toews doesn’t hit 70+ pts with Pastrnak and Marchand?)

 

[Section88]

Stan Bowman’s mismanagement has led the Blackhawks to where they are today. That’s why they’re not their usual self this year.

Bowman has made some bad decisions but its hard to get around some of those bad contracts. Toews was getting 10.5 for the 3 cups. Not for future cups. Seabrook was getting paid for the same thing. Although the term was a couple years too high. But he has made the moves necessary to get 2 of the cups.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

He has 3 cups, 2 gold medals and a million haters.

He was a 2 way beast for a few years and is a future hall of famer.

Does anyone really hate Toews??

I find it ridiculous he was on the top 100 players list and is fairly consistently grouped with players that are of a higher caliber, but that's not his doing.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

A lot of people certainly do overestimate the Hawks' decline. It is just one season. Remember, they almost missed the playoffs in 2011. I remember, they were battling one of Dallas or Minnesota for a playoff spot, and Dallas played Minnesota in game 82. I forget which was on the cusp of a playoff spot, but one of them was, and one of them was not going to make it. I thought it to be a foregone conclusion that the team with a chance to earn a playoff spot would certainly win the game, and push the Hawks out of the playoffs, but they choked it away, and therefore the Hawks made it. Had they missed the playoffs that year, I don't think it would have changed them winning 2 more Cups soon after. Sometimes teams just have shitty years.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

I just bought fries, came here for the salt.

 

[karnige]

I just bought fries, came here for the salt.

why?

 

[JETZZZ]

...Does this mean that Toews is finally tangible?

 

[Regal]

This is one of those times where objective statistical analysis needs to be balanced by basic intuition / "eye test". Forget the advanced numbers, just look at the standings:

109 pts, first in the Central last year
On pace for 80/81 pts this year, last in Central

Crow's injury is definitely a factor as he was having a stellar campaign until the vertigo issues, but they've absolutely regressed.

The point of the underlying numbers is to not rely on the standings. The question is whether this is the new norm for them or whether it's just one if those years where everything goes wrong and they'll bounce back. Same way teams have had huge years out if nowhere and fallen back the next year. I don't suspect they'll be contending anytime soon, but I think they should at least be a bubble team next year rather than in the Central basement

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

The point of the underlying numbers is to not rely on the standings. The question is whether this is the new norm for them or whether it's just one if those years where everything goes wrong and they'll bounce back. Same way teams have had huge years out if nowhere and fallen back the next year. I don't suspect they'll be contending anytime soon, but I think they should at least be a bubble team next year rather than in the Central basement

Likewise Colorado shouldn't be doing this well. Heck even Nashville isn't that impressive of a team as far as possession goes, riding super high PDO. Toronto as well. But Nashville is still a good team overall just not top of Central good.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

2010-11
Primary line mate: Kane and a combination of Sharp, Brouwer and Stalberg.

2011-12
Primary line mates: Kane and a combination of Hossa, Stalberg, Sharp.
—

SPLIT UP FROM KANE

2012-13
Nearly played with Brandon Saad the entire season and Hossa, Kane, and Frolik.

2013-14
Nearly played the whole season with Sharp and Hossa, and sometimes Kane, Versteeg, Saad, Bickell, etc..

2014-15
Nearly played the entire season with Hossa and Saad, sometimes Sharp and Versteeg.
—

DOWNFALL BEGINS (SHARP AND SAAD gone, HOSSA declines)
2015-16 - Played most of the year with Hossa and Shaw/Teravainen on the wing.
2016-17 - Did not have consistent line-mates: Hossa, Panik, Schmaltz, Hartman, Hayden...
2017-18 - Saad/Panik for the most part of the year, Debrincat, Duclair, Hinostroza.

As you can SEE, quality of line-mates has gone down significantly and the numbers show.

He use to play with Patrick Kane for many years, a world class offensive player. When Kane got taken off his line, he got 75pt wingers in Sharp and Hossa, and Saad complemented those two.

Now, he does not have a Kane or prime Sharp/Hossa on his line. Saad will never be on that level, and throwing guys like Panik/Hartman on the wing makes a very poor offensive line.

Debrincat could be that guy, definitely not Duclair. But still, Toews was never known (IMO) for elite offensive ability. He probably looked better then he was (offensively) due to the supporting cast.

He will still a defensive beast, and super clutch player, able to go head to head agaisnt other teams top lines, but he’s a 55-60pt guy like Bergeron, BUT can have his numbers elevated with better line mates. (Think Toews doesn’t hit 70+ pts with Pastrnak and Marchand?)

Good post.

Though I dont think Toews ever hits 70 points again

 

[Syckle78]

He has 3 cups, 2 gold medals and a million haters.

He was a 2 way beast for a few years and is a future hall of famer.

He doesn't have close to hof stats. Team wins shouldn't a hofer make.

 

[Spectra]

Will unfortunately soon be Mike Richards if the trajectory of his play from these two last seasons continue, a shell of his former self.

 

[ClydeLee]

He doesn't have close to hof stats. Team wins shouldn't a hofer make.

But it does to the old school people who vote on it.

 

[Deficient Mode]

People overestimated Toews' decline, not Chicago's decline.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Toews hasn't been as bad as he's been made out to be. Sure, there's been plenty of plays that have died on his stick. Sure, he isn't playing a Selke level two-way game. And sure, he's not worth his cap hit.

But he's not a bad player. He's actually looked better than Kane IMO the past month and a half or so (despite not a lot of production). It's actually kind of annoying. He starts playing more like his younger self once the team's playoff chances went below 5%. Kane probably said "f*** it, why try, might as well tank at this point", while Toews is stupidly hurting our chances at Dahlin.

If Toews played like that for the whole season, we might be in a playoff spot right now. Probably not considering how goaltending is what completely ruined us. Damn do I miss Crawford....

 

[Thrive]

Bowman has made some bad decisions but its hard to get around some of those bad contracts. Toews was getting 10.5 for the 3 cups. Not for future cups. Seabrook was getting paid for the same thing. Although the term was a couple years too high. But he has made the moves necessary to get 2 of the cups.

I was thinking more along the lines of the trades he’s made which have often involved draft picks going the other way combined with a spotty drafting history since he took over the team in July 2009 (e.g. Toews, Kane, Sharp, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford, Hjalmarsson, Ladd, Bolland, Bickell, Kruger, Brouwer and Byfuglien were already drafted/on the team and are thus not to his credit), which have both contributed in not being able to supplement those high priced contracts with cheap young complimentary talent as the cupboards were/are dry.

These two conflicting issues forced him to look elsewhere for reinforcements and per tradition you have to overpay at the deadline (or at least you had to during the Blackhawks’ prime, prices seem to have gone down a little but the past couple of years). Granted, all trades were in an attempt to try and keep the gravy train going for as long as possible - I’m not going to fault him for “going all in” because he had confidence in his players and wanted to bring them reinforcements for a long run in the Spring - he just gave up too much while not drafting all that great which are conflicting issues that have come home to roost.

However, I’m not about only listing the negatives to try and frame a point of view and I’m not trying to incite anything here, just pointing out the guys he drafted that he hit on - credit goes to Bowman for the following players: Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw, Nick Schmaltz, Teuvo Teravainen, Ryan Hartman, Alex DeBrincat, and Kevin Hayes.

Bowman’s problems are not unlike those that plagued Chiarelli here in Boston, who won his Stanley Cup largely off of the roster that Mike O’Connell and Jeff Gorton built.

That being said, two $10.5 million contracts along with Seabrook’s contract don’t help the situation today, but like you said those are players you keep, especially if you want to keep winning Cups. It just makes Bowman’s job much more difficult to try and ice a competitive roster and we’ll see how it goes over the next few years.

 

[Kimota]

Generational Player. Kopitar and Bergeron are minor leaguers.

Three similar players, actually.

 

[1865]

40 points. Boast threads and that don't really matter what your Corsi is when you're a $10m forward whos' on 40 points.