Prospect Info: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, #15 Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[RobertKron]

a partial history of canucks prospects with extreme performances at the world juniors

was awesome at the WJC, turned out awesome in the NHL: bure, ohlund, kesler

was terrible at the WJC, turned out terrible in the NHL: virtanen

was awesome at the WJC, disappointed in the NHL: sandlak, brent tully, rick girard (technically tully and girard never made it), schroeder, mikey dipietro, OJ (but he was only awesome in the one tournament before he was our prospect... ugh)

was terrible at the WJC, turned out awesome in the NHL: cory didn't have a great tournament, iirc?

was awesome at the WJC, tbd: hoglander

was terrible at the WJC, tbd: lekkerimaki

was awesome at the WJC, but gillis: cody

was awesome at the WJC, but benning: forsling

was awesome at the WJC, but burke: chubarov, arguably also umberger and koltsov


but also this is reminding me that around 1993, we had cullimore, tully, slegr, and aucoin in our prospect pool. all were big boys and all showed well at the WJC. this was our big huge D of the future, sigh.

Wasn't Slegr like 5'11"?

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

Legitimate analysis aside, there are few worse signs for a 1st round pick in their D+1 than people in the thread claiming they can't be evaluated until D+3 at the earliest.

D+3 is when the bust flag is officially waved 90% of the time. On a rare occasion you get lucky with a late bloomer, but that is the edge case.

The NHL has become a young man's game where players are usually most productive from 22-25.

Long story short, if you expect players to be challenging for roster spots by their D+3 year, it's very reasonable to evaluate their D+1 and D+2 progress.

 

[iceburg]

I don’t understand. This is a message board to discuss hockey with a prospect heavy focus. Nobody finds it ridiculous to re-rank draft eligible players every few months. I don’t think players are locked in just because they’ve been drafted.

Not really the point. Key word is “trash”. Not the same as “re-ranking”. Sure, discuss the prospect. But to call him a bust at this stage seems a bit premature.

 

[F A N]

If you are struggling in your draft +3 year in the minors as a first round pick the discussion has passed. You are a bust and something significant needs to happen to put you back on track.

D+3 is when the bust flag is officially waved 90% of the time. On a rare occasion you get lucky with a late bloomer, but that is the edge case.

The NHL has become a young man's game where players are usually most productive from 22-25.

Long story short, if you expect players to be challenging for roster spots by their D+3 year, it's very reasonable to evaluate their D+1 and D+2 progress.

I would give a little bit more leeway as there are many variables. Obviously, there's a difference between a top 10 pick and a late first round pick, a forward vs defenseman vs goalie etc. It can take time to adjust to the AHL or to North American hockey but I do think that in that case a huge step would need to be taken between the draft +3 to +4 years.

Kempe, for example, made his debut when he had 11 goals 19 points in 43 games (he finished with 12 goals 20 points in 46 games) when he made his NHL debut and has been an NHL player ever since.

Scouting reports may differ on Lekkerimaki but scouts who really like him don't see too much weaknesses apart from lack of upper body strength. Those who are more moderate see nothing that can't be corrected and those who don't like him see a one dimensional player who might be able to outscore his warts.

For me, I've seen too many "elite shooters" who are average in many parts of their game struggle to become goal scorers in the NHL. I'm willing to give Lekkerimaki the benefit of the doubt as he's battled health issues and is obviously having a tough year, but at the same time, he has 1 goal in 20 games in the Allsvenken league. He has the same amount of points as Canucks's Own 38 year old Nicklas Danielsson.

I'm normally a fan of giving players an extra year in SHL or KHL to develop (assuming Lekkerimaki will play in the SHL next season), but I think the Canucks should seriously consider bringing over Lekkerimaki and see if he can at least follow the path of Alexander Holtz with the Sedins working with him.

 

[mriswith]

D+3 is when the bust flag is officially waved 90% of the time. On a rare occasion you get lucky with a late bloomer, but that is the edge case.

The NHL has become a young man's game where players are usually most productive from 22-25.

Long story short, if you expect players to be challenging for roster spots by their D+3 year, it's very reasonable to evaluate their D+1 and D+2 progress.

Oh I agree. If Lekk were having a good year no one would be in this thread saying "wait till D+3!!".

People only say that when the trajectory is poor.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Wasn't Slegr like 5'11"?

hockey ref has him at 6-1, 210lb (185cm, 95kg)

hockeydb has Height 6.00 -- Weight 216[183 cm/98 kg]

elite prospects says 6'0" / 183 cm 223 lbs / 101 kg

but who knows how big any of these guys actually are? my memory of him was he was quite wide, a bit of an alex zhitnik or doughty body type.

 

[strattonius]

I'm somewhere in the middle.

Like it's pretty nuts to write off an 18 yr old and throw up the bust label so early BUT at the same time he's definitely tracking like shit and there are far too many excuses being made for this player - the more alarming thing is we had him ranked 7th.

Basically I don't think anyone is really wrong in here. The prospect needs baking and time but it's not looking good.

 

[RobertKron]

hockey ref has him at 6-1, 210lb (185cm, 95kg)

hockeydb has Height 6.00 -- Weight 216[183 cm/98 kg]

elite prospects says 6'0" / 183 cm 223 lbs / 101 kg

but who knows how big any of these guys actually are? my memory of him was he was quite wide, a bit of an alex zhitnik or doughty body type.

I don't remember him being very big, but I probably didn't get a good look at him on account of sitting up in the cheap seats and always having to duck whenever he had the puck so he didn't hit me with a shot.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

I don't remember him being very big, but I probably didn't get a good look at him on account of sitting up in the cheap seats and always having to duck whenever he had the puck so he didn't hit me with a shot.

if that blueline had ever actually come to pass and our pp was slegr and young aucoin on the points, greg adams would be dead.

 

[sting101]

at this point it's just wait and see for his 2nd half production. If he doesnt start clicking around at least a .5 to .6 ppg pace im pretty certain he's a bust unless he has some health issues holding him back

He's not the kind of player that would be lacking opportunity to score

 

[iceburg]

D+3 is when the bust flag is officially waved 90% of the time. On a rare occasion you get lucky with a late bloomer, but that is the edge case.

The NHL has become a young man's game where players are usually most productive from 22-25.

Long story short, if you expect players to be challenging for roster spots by their D+3 year, it's very reasonable to evaluate their D+1 and D+2 progress.

I don't have any problem evaluating their progress in D+1 and D+2 years. I just find that the word "bust" gets thrown around way too early. There are just way to many variables in a 20 game stretch in a D+1 year, for example, to draw any conclusions on the NHL projections except, possibly, for top 5 picks where the expectations and success probabilities are much higher.

Looking at all the wingers drafted in the 13-17 range from 2012 to 2018 there really isn't a pattern projecting from their D+1 years to the NHL

2012
Grigorenko - Decent start in AHL as 18 year old in D+1 year. Replacement level player in NHL

2013 - none

2014
Vrana - 3 points in SHL in D+1 year. NHL 25 goal scorer.
Milano - OHL/AHL in D+1 year (5 assists in 10 game stint in AHL - good start). Just now showing he can be a middle 6 forward in NHL.

2015
DeBrusk - ppg player in WHL in D+1 year. A slight decline from his draft year. 25 goal scorer in NHL.
Connor - NCAA star in D+1 year. NHL star.

2016/17- none

2018
Farabee - ppg player in NCAA. Middle 6 NHLer
Denisenko - D+1 entry into KHL (0.25 ppg player). Fringe NHLer.
Kaut - very solid AHL season in his D+1 year. Fringe NHLer.

The point is that, within this draft range, there is really no consistency across players in projecting from their D+1 year to the NHL. The exception I guess is a guy like Kyle Connor who was clearly a star in his D+1 year and has gone on to star in the NHL.

Again, evaluation is fine. Just need to be careful calling bust too early.

 

[Seattle Totems]

Dude is putting up that stat line playing against eight year olds?

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Virtanen
Juolevi
Lek
Podkolzin.


4 top 15 picks who aren’t NHLers in the last 7-8 years. That’s actually hard to do.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Again, evaluation is fine. Just need to be careful calling bust too early.

I think the opposite is true.

Posters here tend to be far too lenient on prospects.

Im still waiting to know if Jake Virtanen has turned a corner.

 

[Fatass]

I don't have any problem evaluating their progress in D+1 and D+2 years. I just find that the word "bust" gets thrown around way too early. There are just way to many variables in a 20 game stretch in a D+1 year, for example, to draw any conclusions on the NHL projections except, possibly, for top 5 picks where the expectations and success probabilities are much higher.

Looking at all the wingers drafted in the 13-17 range from 2012 to 2018 there really isn't a pattern projecting from their D+1 years to the NHL

2012
Grigorenko - Decent start in AHL as 18 year old in D+1 year. Replacement level player in NHL

2013 - none

2014
Vrana - 3 points in SHL in D+1 year. NHL 25 goal scorer.
Milano - OHL/AHL in D+1 year (5 assists in 10 game stint in AHL - good start). Just now showing he can be a middle 6 forward in NHL.

2015
DeBrusk - ppg player in WHL in D+1 year. A slight decline from his draft year. 25 goal scorer in NHL.
Connor - NCAA star in D+1 year. NHL star.

2016/17- none

2018
Farabee - ppg player in NCAA. Middle 6 NHLer
Denisenko - D+1 entry into KHL (0.25 ppg player). Fringe NHLer.
Kaut - very solid AHL season in his D+1 year. Fringe NHLer.

The point is that, within this draft range, there is really no consistency across players in projecting from their D+1 year to the NHL. The exception I guess is a guy like Kyle Connor who was clearly a star in his D+1 year and has gone on to star in the NHL.

Again, evaluation is fine. Just need to be careful calling bust too early.

How in the heck did the Rangers get good while using their very high picks to draft Lafrenierre, Kakko, Anderson, and Kravtsov?

 

[iceburg]

How in the heck did the Rangers get good while using their very high picks to draft Lafrenierre, Kakko, Anderson, and Kravtsov?

The Rangers have been given a lot of credit for rebuilding "the right way" but that hasn't been the primary reason for their success. The fact that both Adam Fox and Artemi Panarin wanted to play in New York city, and they got lucky drafting Shesterkin in the 4th round who at the time was playing junior hockey in Russian and didn't really show he was a keeper (pun intended) until his draft+3 year, has everything to do with why they are good today.

So, the real answer is that they are uniquely positioned to draw good players and they hit a homerun with a goalie.

Kinda unrelated but worth pointing out that the Rangers have been better at drafting good D in the late 1st and 2nd rounds. Their young group of defensemen is an embarrassment of riches.

 

[gringo]

Legitimate analysis aside, there are few worse signs for a 1st round pick in their D+1 than people in the thread claiming they can't be evaluated until D+3 at the earliest.

Kiss of death

I don't remember him being very big, but I probably didn't get a good look at him on account of sitting up in the cheap seats and always having to duck whenever he had the puck so he didn't hit me with a shot.

Lumme and Slegr were both unnaturally wide humans.

 

[arttk]

The Rangers have been given a lot of credit for rebuilding "the right way" but that hasn't been the primary reason for their success. The fact that both Adam Fox and Artemi Panarin wanted to play in New York city, and they got lucky drafting Shesterkin in the 4th round who at the time was playing junior hockey in Russian and didn't really show he was a keeper (pun intended) until his draft+3 year, has everything to do with why they are good today.

So, the real answer is that they are uniquely positioned to draw good players and they hit a homerun with a goalie.

Kinda unrelated but worth pointing out that the Rangers have been better at drafting good D in the late 1st and 2nd rounds. Their young group of defensemen is an embarrassment of riches.

Fox and Panarin for free
A couple of dman they drafted with their first hitting in Miller, Schneider,
That trade where they robbed Ottawa and got Zinbanejad
Shetshirkin (however you spell him)

 

[The Iron Goalie]

Lekkerimaki played in the J20 Nationell this morning, and is expected to play another game before being recalled Wednesday. Some rumors he requested the assignment, but regardless should allow him to rebuild some offensive confidence.

Scored 1G 1A (primary) 5SOG

 

[barriers]

 

[The Iron Goalie]

2 primary assists so far this morning for 4 primary points through 4 periods (J20), and looking confident (which is a nice change of pace).

 

[The Iron Goalie]

Just scored an absolute SNIPE mid-way through the 2nd, and looking dominant at the J20 level (as he should). Will add video when/if available.

*edit* - Lekkerimaki was held scoreless in the 3rd period, but did create multiple high danger scoring chances by my count (PP breakaway, and 2 high danger shot assists), and then saw limited TOI due to his team taking a few penalties in the latter 2/3rds of the 3rd period.

Finishes the weekend with - 2G 3A 5Pts (all primary) in 2GP

 

[me2]

Fingers crossed he's turning it around

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Fingers crossed he's turning it around

NOW he is in a league where nothing much can be made of his production.

Hope he builds his confidence up and is back in the AllSvenskan asap and produces like a mad man for the reminder of the season there.

 

[barriers]