Value of: John Gibson to the Leafs

[WhatTheDuck]

It's been 3 seasons straight where he has had a big negative GSAx. The benefit of GSAx above save % or GAA is it takes team defense into account. So when Grubauer gets nominated for a vezina when he didn't deserve it you can see the Avs defense carried him to his nomination. Or you can see Hellebuyck or Shesterkin carrying their teams with bad defense the years they won their Vezina's.

Even with a bad defense he still saved way below what's expected for the quality of shots he faced.

Big risk to expect him to rebound, and pay a decent cost, and take on that cap hit, especially for 5 more years.

He needs a rebound season first, will increase his value too.

It still doesn't account for context. What percentage of those goals occur when his team is already dead in the water for the night (ie down by 2/3 goals and showing zero signs of life)?

You do not have a stat that will properly illustrate both the mental and physical strain of being the guy in front of a bottom feeding team for 55+ games per year, for seasons on end. I realize some of you wish the game could be boiled down to simple numbers like that, but its just not the case. Teams spending hundreds of thousands if not millions on pro scouting every year, so that they aren't just relying merely on statistics.

I understand you have a stat that tells you John Gibson is terrible, but you should also understand that a pro scout would laugh in your face for the suggestion.

 

[Big Muddy]

I'm saying paying a premium for a goalie who's had declining numbers over the past 4 seasons is a gamble at best...

Good, then don't trade for Gibson and close this thread then. Everybody wins.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I'm not saying playing infront of a better team won't increase his numbers....I'm saying paying a premium for a goalie who's had declining numbers over the past 4 seasons is a gamble at best...
But sure I can cherry pick a player thats numbers didn't go up playing on a better team if you want

Thank god no one is asking for a premium.

 

[Big Muddy]

Every playoff game that goes by Gibson gains more value... loving this keep it going. If the Leafs aren't interested there will be teams lining up after watching this post season.

But the nation will continue to argue about "value" and will continue to assume that teams need to trade with them to make their team better even if there's no interest from the other team.

Thank god no one is asking for a premium.

Or even just "asking"l. LOL.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

But the nation will continue to argue about "value" and will continue to assume that teams need to trade with them to make their team better even if there's no interest from the other team.


Or even just "asking"l. LOL.

I mean Anaheim is fine, we have 0 cap issues, we have 0 need to trade gibson he hasn’t asked for a trade or anything…. Keeping him isn’t the worst thing as most duck fans think he’s a great goalie. If the market isn’t high enough for him we simply keep him

But acting like teams won’t be kicking tires on gibson is silly…

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Deleted

 

[Big Muddy]

I mean Anaheim is fine, we have 0 cap issues, we have 0 need to trade gibson he hasn’t asked for a trade or anything…. Keeping him isn’t the worst thing as most duck fans think he’s a great goalie. If the market isn’t high enough for him we simply keep him

But acting like teams won’t be kicking tires on gibson is silly…

Ya, the "kicking tires" is OK and no big deal. But, one team clearly needs to do something and the other doesn't. That is painfully obvious, but you'd never know that reading some of these posts. Let Toronto dangle in the wind for all I care. Its their problem not anyone else's.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I also dont worry about Gibson's numbers declining ANA hasnt been the best throughout those years and I believe he still has alot of good years left at a fair cap hit
What I do worry about is his overall health. I swear years ago when I payed more attention to him because of fantasy he seemed to have an injury every year
has he put that behind him or he injury prone?

 

[Rec T]

It really cracks me up that all the people who are trying so hard to prove that Gibson sucks so hard (if he's 'that' bad why do you want him...) are conveniently ignoring that less than four months ago he was starting in his third All Star Game. Granted, it's a fake game that's more a popularity contest, but players who stink aren't on the ballot to begin with. So in the Pacific Division with their 16 (more or less) goaltenders, he was judged to be one of the top two (Demko was the other iirc).

Personally I'd rather that the Ducks keep him. I'm expecting one more year of them being cannon fodder and then competitive enough to make the playoffs the following year, and then really ready to run the year after that. So more or less bad for two years & then a relatively serious threat (and by then, hopefully Dostal is ready to be a solid backup/1B). IF he goes to PV & asks for a trade, I hope that it's with the understanding that his NMC will be waived if there's a serious offer by a team who's competitive window is 'right now' (or a team where Gibson agrees that they're going to be good real soon).

Time will tell I suppose..

 

[MardyBum]

It still doesn't account for context. What percentage of those goals occur when his team is already dead in the water for the night (ie down by 2/3 goals and showing zero signs of life)?

You do not have a stat that will properly illustrate both the mental and physical strain of being the guy in front of a bottom feeding team for 55+ games per year, for seasons on end. I realize some of you wish the game could be boiled down to simple numbers like that, but its just not the case. Teams spending hundreds of thousands if not millions on pro scouting every year, so that they aren't just relying merely on statistics.

I understand you have a stat that tells you John Gibson is terrible, but you should also understand that a pro scout would laugh in your face for the suggestion.

I never said it was perfect, it just illustrates how mediocre to bad Gibson has been the last few years. You can't solely blame the defense or the part of the defense you don't like.

Workload can matter, for sure.

Maybe he's having personal problems, maybe he can't handle the mental workload. Maybe he's not physically able to handle the workload at 28 that he did when he was in his early twenties. Maybe none of that is true, we have no way of knowing.

Teams also spend hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on analytics.

Pro scouts thought Ristolainen was worth 14OA and a second round pick. Maybe they were thinking they knew better than all those stats nerds that were showing how he was bad even compared to his teammates, across multiple years, and would be an great top 4 dman with just a change of scenery.

Some players can, some players go through personal struggles like Morrissey we don't know about then come back and play great.

Again, maybe he rebounds and has a strong season and you can get a boatload for him (or just keep him to compete) He certainly had elite seasons before this bad stretch of years.

Certainly a big risk for the Leafs with the cap hit and term.

 

[ScottyK]

Ducks should of moved him 2 yrs ago

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

It really cracks me up that all the people who are trying so hard to prove that Gibson sucks so hard (if he's 'that' bad why do you want him...) are conveniently ignoring that less than four months ago he was starting in his third All Star Game. Granted, it's a fake game that's more a popularity contest, but players who stink aren't on the ballot to begin with. So in the Pacific Division with their 16 (more or less) goaltenders, he was judged to be one of the top two (Demko was the other iirc).

Personally I'd rather that the Ducks keep him. I'm expecting one more year of them being cannon fodder and then competitive enough to make the playoffs the following year, and then really ready to run the year after that. So more or less bad for two years & then a relatively serious threat (and by then, hopefully Dostal is ready to be a solid backup/1B). IF he goes to PV & asks for a trade, I hope that it's with the understanding that his NMC will be waived if there's a serious offer by a team who's competitive window is 'right now' (or a team where Gibson agrees that they're going to be good real soon).

Time will tell I suppose..

Look I want Gibson on this team, I think he is the guy the Leafs need.

That being said let's not use the all star game to pump him up because Jack Campbell nwas awful from December to April and he was an all star because his November was incredible.

1 great month made Jack Campbell an all star granted it was a GREAT month but it's still 1 month

 

[Gliff]

Ducks should of moved him 2 yrs ago

Bob Murray was living in fantasy land where he thought Getzlaf was going to play like a 25 year old until 40.

 

[Shane Diesel]

It still doesn't account for context. What percentage of those goals occur when his team is already dead in the water for the night (ie down by 2/3 goals and showing zero signs of life)?

You do not have a stat that will properly illustrate both the mental and physical strain of being the guy in front of a bottom feeding team for 55+ games per year, for seasons on end. I realize some of you wish the game could be boiled down to simple numbers like that, but its just not the case. Teams spending hundreds of thousands if not millions on pro scouting every year, so that they aren't just relying merely on statistics.

"Gibson's numbers are only bad because the Ducks are bad."

This might be a good argument if it weren't for the myriad of good seasons a variety of goaltenders have put up behind bad teams. There are a bunch of examples within the last decade alone. So, he has all this incredible talent, but he is too mentally weak to consistently show up to the rink when the team is losing and he needs a good team around him to put up decent numbers. When other goalies have consistently shown up and put up decent numbers. That's not an elite player or one that should garner much return in a trade.

I understand you have a stat that tells you John Gibson is terrible, but you should also understand that a pro scout would laugh in your face for the suggestion.

It's not one stat, it's all the stats. Standard or fancy. There's not a single one that points to Gibson being a good goaltender the last three years. The advanced stats that attempt take into consideration the skaters in front and isolate goaltender play show he's terrible. They are all bad without exception. Hell, Gibson's backups have at times recorded better stats while playing behind the same team.

Also, unless you are a professional scout or know professional scouts you're completely talking out of your ass claiming you have any idea what the book on Gibson is around the league. Just the typical "because I say so" nonsense from Gibson stans.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I never said it was perfect, it just illustrates how mediocre to bad Gibson has been the last few years. You can't solely blame the defense or the part of the defense you don't like.

Workload can matter, for sure.

Maybe he's having personal problems, maybe he can't handle the mental workload. Maybe he's not physically able to handle the workload at 28 that he did when he was in his early twenties. Maybe none of that is true, we have no way of knowing.

Teams also spend hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on analytics.

Pro scouts thought Ristolainen was worth 14OA and a second round pick. Maybe they were thinking they knew better than all those stats nerds that were showing how he was bad even compared to his teammates, across multiple years, and would be an great top 4 dman with just a change of scenery.

Some players can, some players go through personal struggles like Morrissey we don't know about then come back and play great.

Again, maybe he rebounds and has a strong season and you can get a boatload for him (or just keep him to compete) He certainly had elite seasons before this bad stretch of years.

Certainly a big risk for the Leafs with the cap hit and term.

I mean risto was basically never good tho.

I’d say it’s pretty big risk for Anaheim to move him in the first place, specially because we’re going to get lower return than what we woulda got 3 years ago.

But our goal isn’t to be competitive, and Gibson wants to play on a contender/ play meaningful games…. He won’t get that in Anaheim next 2 + years

"Gibson's numbers are only bad because the Ducks are bad."

This might be a good argument if it weren't for the myriad of good seasons a variety of goaltenders have put up behind bad teams. There are a bunch of examples within the last decade alone. So, he has all this incredible talent, but he is too mentally weak to consistently show up to the rink when the team is losing and he needs a good team around him to put up decent numbers. When other goalies have consistently shown up and put up decent numbers. That's not an elite player or one that should garner much return in a trade.

It's not one stat, it's all the stats. Standard or fancy. There's not a single one that points to Gibson being a good goaltender the last three years. The advanced stats that attempt take into consideration the skaters in front and isolate goaltender play show he's terrible. They are all bad without exception. Hell, Gibson's backups have at times recorded better stats while playing behind the same team.

Also, unless you are a professional scout or know professional scouts you're completely talking out of your ass claiming you have any idea what the book on Gibson is around the league. Just the typical "because I say so" nonsense from Gibson stans.

Lol did you just say gibson Stan’s

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I never said it was perfect, it just illustrates how mediocre to bad Gibson has been the last few years. You can't solely blame the defense or the part of the defense you don't like.

Workload can matter, for sure.

Maybe he's having personal problems, maybe he can't handle the mental workload. Maybe he's not physically able to handle the workload at 28 that he did when he was in his early twenties. Maybe none of that is true, we have no way of knowing.

Teams also spend hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on analytics.

Pro scouts thought Ristolainen was worth 14OA and a second round pick. Maybe they were thinking they knew better than all those stats nerds that were showing how he was bad even compared to his teammates, across multiple years, and would be an great top 4 dman with just a change of scenery.

Some players can, some players go through personal struggles like Morrissey we don't know about then come back and play great.

Again, maybe he rebounds and has a strong season and you can get a boatload for him (or just keep him to compete) He certainly had elite seasons before this bad stretch of years.

Certainly a big risk for the Leafs with the cap hit and term.

I think if we dive deeper into those goals he's expected to stop, you would see the same trends that Ducks fans are talking about. I would predict that they occur at a much higher rate as the year goes on (and as the Ducks fade further from the playoff picture), and also more frequently in games when the team is already at a deficit.

There has definitely been a tendency (whether it be from frustration, self preservation or some of each), to not look nearly competitive on nights where the team is badly outclassed early, down by a couple goals and barely able to clear center ice.

I'm not saying none of the stinkers are happening when he's competing his hardest because that would be absurd, but I am suggesting that a large quantity of those goals are in games that the Ducks were already well out of. I doubt any goalie in the league over these past few seasons has spent more more minutes playing in games where it truly wouldn't matter whether they allowed 3 or 6 goals. People can say what they want about professionalism and competitiveness but I think the best tend to save their best for when it matters.

We saw as recently as the first half of this year, that if you put even a semi competitive team in front of Gibson, he's more than capable of taking care of the rest. The Ducks top 3 veteran D were all finally healthy for a length of time, and a rejuvenated Getzlaf meant they could actually for first time in years have two lines that actually drive some offense the other way. Still a pretty mediocre group on paper but they were good enough to compete most nights and were winning propped up by Vezina caliber goaltending from Gibson.

Then the injuries start again, to both the D and Getz who never really bounced back again. Back to a one line team with mediocre D at best, and the long nights start to pile up again. There was a stretch of about 10 games in the middle of the season, where the Ducks were easily the worse team each game, and it was almost a full reset back to the previous couple of years. Then of course the deadline comes with two of the top D being moved and essentially left half an NHL D corps for the remaining quarter season.

I really don't think Gibson suddenly regained his talent at the start of the year and then lost it again. Success as a goalie hinges so much more on the surrounding environment then even the most advanced of stats can really account for.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

Feels like an impossible trade because the pedigree suggests he should get a lot in return and the Leafs would look idiotic if they paid a premium and he came back with a sub .910 save pct. Risky either way - so I doubt anything comes of it.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I think if we dive deeper into those goals he's expected to stop, you would see the same trends that Ducks fans are talking about. I would predict that they occur at a much higher rate as the year goes on (and as the Ducks fade further from the playoff picture), and also more frequently in games when the team is already at a deficit.

There has definitely been a tendency (whether it be from frustration, self preservation or some of each), to not look nearly competitive on nights where the team is badly outclassed early, down by a couple goals and barely able to clear center ice.

I'm not saying none of the stinkers are happening when he's competing his hardest because that would be absurd, but I am suggesting that a large quantity of those goals are in games that the Ducks were already well out of. I doubt any goalie in the league over these past few seasons has spent more more minutes playing in games where it truly wouldn't matter whether they allowed 3 or 6 goals. People can say what they want about professionalism and competitiveness but I think the best tend to save their best for when it matters.

We saw as recently as the first half of this year, that if you put even a semi competitive team in front of Gibson, he's more than capable of taking care of the rest. The Ducks top 3 veteran D were all finally healthy for a length of time, and a rejuvenated Getzlaf meant they could actually for first time in years have two lines that actually drive some offense the other way. Still a pretty mediocre group on paper but they were good enough to compete most nights and were winning propped up by Vezina caliber goaltending from Gibson.

Then the injuries start again, to both the D and Getz who never really bounced back again. Back to a one line team with mediocre D at best, and the long nights start to pile up again. There was a stretch of about 10 games in the middle of the season, where the Ducks were easily the worse team each game, and it was almost a full reset back to the previous couple of years. Then of course the deadline comes with two of the top D being moved and essentially left half an NHL D corps for the remaining quarter season.

I really don't think Gibson suddenly regained his talent at the start of the year and then lost it again. Success as a goalie hinges so much more on the surrounding environment then even the most advanced of stats can really account for.

All it takes is watching a couple games…. Hell read a Colorado thread when they play Anaheim…. Or even a leafs vs ducks thread when Gibson is started….. it’s full of man it would be 8-0 if gibson wasn’t in.


It’s easier just to read stats and make assumptions tho, specially if they frame your narrative better

Feels like an impossible trade because the pedigree suggests he should get a lot in return and the Leafs would look idiotic if they paid a premium and he came back with a sub .910 save pct. Risky either way - so I doubt anything comes of it.

If your paying a premium, there hasn’t been much premium asks.

Unless your calling a late 1st and an solid not great prospect a premium

I don’t generally consider Sandin robertson neimla premium assets, nor is the late 1st.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I mean risto was basically never good tho.

I’d say it’s pretty big risk for Anaheim to move him in the first place, specially because we’re going to get lower return than what we woulda got 3 years ago.

But our goal isn’t to be competitive, and Gibson wants to play on a contender/ play meaningful games…. He won’t get that in Anaheim next 2 + years


Lol did you just say gibson Stan’s

Haha I'm not going to dignify it with anything more than laughter in return.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Haha I'm not going to dignify it with anything more than laughter in return.

Shush you gibson Stan !

Went from
Perry and getzlaf
Manson
Gibson

Leaf fans always fighting over our players smh

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

All it takes is watching a couple games…. Hell read a Colorado thread when they play Anaheim…. Or even a leafs vs ducks thread when Gibson is started….. it’s full of man it would be 8-0 if gibson wasn’t in.


It’s easier just to read stats and make assumptions tho, specially if they frame your narrative better


If your paying a premium, there hasn’t been much premium asks.

Unless your calling a late 1st and an solid not great prospect a premium

I don’t generally consider Sandin robertson neimla premium assets, nor is the late 1st.

Problem is the risk-reward on cap + value. Leafs value all of those 3 pieces more than the 1st FWIW so its essentially at worst two late firsts of value for a guy who had a worse sv pct over the past 3 years than they got from Campbell this past year, and Campbell would be cheaper to sign.

I prefer Gibson over Campbell - but thats the risk, and if the cost is essentially 2 firsts, i'd pass, only because I think goaltending is pretty much voodoo aside from like 3 guys in the league at this point.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Haha I'm not going to dignify it with anything more than laughter in return.

Just for the record all these advanced stats and analytics also say the leafs were cup favorites the last 3-4 years…. What’s up with that

Problem is the risk-reward on cap + value. Leafs value all of those 3 pieces more than the 1st FWIW so its essentially at worst two late firsts of value for a guy who had a worse sv pct over the past 3 years than they got from Campbell this past year, and Campbell would be cheaper to sign.

I prefer Gibson over Campbell - but thats the risk, and if the cost is essentially 2 firsts, i'd pass, only because I think goaltending is pretty much voodoo aside from like 3 guys in the league at this point.

I have no issue with people avoiding gibson cause of high cap and goalies having no certainty… it’s the ones that feel the need to act like gibson isn’t better than what the leafs have put in net.

Now what are the leafs other options?

Pay Campbell 5+?
Pay kuemper 5+ ?

Look for a lower cost goalie and hope for some magic?

 

[tomd]

Problem is the risk-reward on cap + value. Leafs value all of those 3 pieces more than the 1st FWIW so its essentially at worst two late firsts of value for a guy who had a worse sv pct over the past 3 years than they got from Campbell this past year, and Campbell would be cheaper to sign.

I prefer Gibson over Campbell - but thats the risk, and if the cost is essentially 2 firsts, i'd pass, only because I think goaltending is pretty much voodoo aside from like 3 guys in the league at this point.

If Dubas is interested in acquiring Gibson then that means the Toronto organization is ok with the risk-reward dynamic. He isn't going to go to Verbeek and try to lowball him. The deal will be fair from both sides under the assumption that Toronto is getting a top 10 goalie in the league who is under contract for 5 more years. If that isn't the working assumption then Toronto would not be interested in him in the first place.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Every playoff game that goes by Gibson gains more value... loving this keep it going. If the Leafs aren't interested there will be teams lining up after watching this post season.

For what? A .905 goalie making 6.4x5? All while having to give up multiple premium assets? Oh boy sign me up!
Comtois would have to be included to sweeten a deal for the other team, mitigate some of that risk.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Just for the record all these advanced stats and analytics also say the leafs were cup favorites the last 3-4 years…. What’s up with that


I have no issue with people avoiding gibson cause of high cap and goalies having no certainty… it’s the ones that feel the need to act like gibson isn’t better than what the leafs have put in net.

Now what are the leafs other options?

Pay Campbell 5+?
Pay kuemper 5+ ?

Look for a lower cost goalie and hope for some magic?

Leafs lost to Tampa in 7 by one goal, a called back goal at that. Tampa’s the odd on favourites to three peat even after handing New York game 1. Leafs get by Tampa they’re in the same spot as the lightning right now as Florida were obvious frauds.
Mrazek has better numbers the last four seasons despite battling injuries, has less term and half the cap hit but the leafs are adding multiple premium assets to exchange these two?
Would need a sweetener like comtois to offset the contract to play values between the goalies especially if Anaheim is insisting on futures assets like 24OA Robertson sandin etc