Johan Larsson contract (RFA)

[B U F F A L O]

What kind of contract would you give him? Would you use him as trade bait? Where do you see his spot and role in the lineup?

Ive been pleasantly surprised with his development in our system. He has improved each year he has played. Its no surprise he produces when hes not playing 4th line minutes. I dont see a future for him as a top 6 C unless we have injuries. I see him as a solid 3C centering a balanced and responsible two way line.

Some notable 22-23 year old RFA signings from last year:

Niederreiter 3 years $8M (39 pts 145 gp / PO: 6 pts 13 gp)
Kreider 2 years $4.95M (40 pts 89 gp / PO: 22 pts 41 gp)
Jaden Schwartz 2 years $4.7M (72 pts 132 gp / PO: 4 pts 12 gp)
Eakin 2 years $3.8M (67 pts 159 gp / PO: 5 pts 6 gp)
Pirri 2 years $1.85M (27 pts 56 gp)
Zucker 2 years $1.805M (12 pts 47 gp / PO: 2 pts 5 gp)

Larsson ?? years ?? (17 pts 63 gp -- as of 4/1/15)

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[gallagt01]

He'll sign his QO and that'll be the end of it.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Not sure where you're getting 27 points in 67 games played. He has 16 career NHL points in 62 career games. The comparables you gave aren't exactly spot on.

 

[B U F F A L O]

Not sure where you're getting 27 points in 67 games played. He has 16 career NHL points in 62 career games. The comparables you gave aren't exactly spot on.

Yes, I misread the column for PIM as PTS, will correct

 

[mikemcburn]

Yes, I misread the column for PIM as PTS, will correct

Could happen to anyone. Both columns start with a capital 'P' after all. And those Ts & Is look much the same to me once I'm enjoying a scotch. And really, there are far too many stat columns anyway. We need a web site that just says has 4 columns - team, player name, jersey number and a ranking 1-5, good to pathetic. Keep it simple.

I think Larsson's continued energy has been admirable (far outshining Varone's spurt that sputtled), but with the projected depth coming into play I suspect it's either the QO and management sees how the roster flushes out next year, or he's open trade bait this summer, part of a package (with a Grigorenko/Hodgson/youngD thing) to land a goalie.

 

[Djp]

I think Larsson gets more than the qualifying offer. It all depends on what role they see him playing in.

I could see him get something around $1.2M if they think he will play a top 9 role. If they think he may be a 4th line player they do something less.

 

[Mit Yarrum]

He'll sign the QO and be a full time NHL player next year to prove his worth.

 

[DJN21]

I like Larsson but I'd be somewhat disappointed if we started the season as our 3c. I really wanna see a vet brought in who can be more of a face off specialist kind of center. I'm tired of the revolving door of wingers taking draws on this team

 

[jBuds]

Murray had an interesting quote on him.

Said he's the second tier. Not the elite offense guy. So he's top six in ahl, probably second or third call up on the totem pole, and then gets called up here for a bottom nine role that doesn't fit him. Not fault of coach or player.

Basically said, to me at least, he views him as top six

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Murray had an interesting quote on him.

Said he's the second tier. Not the elite offense guy. So he's top six in ahl, probably second or third call up on the totem pole, and then gets called up here for a bottom nine role that doesn't fit him. Not fault of coach or player.

Basically said, to me at least, he views him as top six

To the contrary, Murray said he views him as a bottom six role player.

 

[mikemcburn]

To the contrary, Murray said he views him as a bottom six role player.

I didn't (haven't) listened to the interview, but you gotta have called it correctly. At least where TM is evaluating Larsson relative to the expected depth on the Sabres. I've been enjoying the kid this stretch, but he's just not top 6, period, much less top six with the likes of McDavid/Eitchel, Reinhart, Girgensens, even Hodgson (if he plays for the Sabres next season, and if that as a center).

Truly do enjoy the kid, but he's not a play maker any more than Girgensens, he's not got a shot, his d is average, and he's just not made guys around him better. He's doing well this stretch, kudos, but the line is not "Larsson's line". Both Moulson and Ennis could do just as well with Varone, or better with a genuine playmaking top 6 center.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

To the contrary, Murray said he views him as a bottom six role player.

a role player

 

[Zman5778]

2 years, $3-3.5 mil total feels right.

 

[Tapu Coco]

I didn't (haven't) listened to the interview, but you gotta have called it correctly. At least where TM is evaluating Larsson relative to the expected depth on the Sabres. I've been enjoying the kid this stretch, but he's just not top 6, period, much less top six with the likes of McDavid/Eitchel, Reinhart, Girgensens, even Hodgson (if he plays for the Sabres next season, and if that as a center).

Truly do enjoy the kid, but he's not a play maker any more than Girgensens, he's not got a shot, his d is average, and he's just not made guys around him better. He's doing well this stretch, kudos, but the line is not "Larsson's line". Both Moulson and Ennis could do just as well with Varone, or better with a genuine playmaking top 6 center.

Gotta disagree with you here.

Larsson drives play much more effectively than Varone, at both ends of the ice. In fact, i think Varone is utterly useless save for games he produces in small spurts. I do agree that he'll be phazed out of the top 6, but 3C seems perfect for a player like him, or on the wing there if we being in a vet center this offseason. He's not a top 6-or-bust player, he's responsible defensively and would thrive as a 3rd liner for checking assignments or face lower qual comp/feast on o-zone starts. He's show that he can play top 6 in a pinch, too, and versatility is valuable

 

[DJN21]

Gotta disagree with you here.

Larsson drives play much more effectively than Varone, at both ends of the ice. In fact, i think Varone is utterly useless save for games he produces in small spurts. I do agree that he'll be phazed out of the top 6, but 3C seems perfect for a player like him, or on the wing there if we being in a vet center this offseason. He's not a top 6-or-bust player, he's responsible defensively and would thrive as a 3rd liner for checking assignments or face lower qual comp/feast on o-zone starts. He's show that he can play top 6 in a pinch, too, and versatility is valuable

This is where I hope to see him next year. ..3rd line winger on an actual shutdown line. I don't see his ceiling as ever being higher on this team frankly. Worst case 4th line on a deep sabres team

 

[mikemcburn]

Gotta disagree with you here.

Larsson drives play much more effectively than Varone, at both ends of the ice. In fact, i think Varone is utterly useless save for games he produces in small spurts. I do agree that he'll be phazed out of the top 6, but 3C seems perfect for a player like him, or on the wing there if we being in a vet center this offseason. He's not a top 6-or-bust player, he's responsible defensively and would thrive as a 3rd liner for checking assignments or face lower qual comp/feast on o-zone starts. He's show that he can play top 6 in a pinch, too, and versatility is valuable

You are correct, and if that means you've corrected what I said, that's correct too.

I did not, in any way, intend to suggest that Larsson was less effective than Varone. Not bashing Varone here, he is what he is, and that's fair enough at this stage of his life-span. But I watched those two games after his call-up, that "spurt" as you call it, saw him do seemingly awesome, and instinctively thought it was a really swell spurt. Nothing to bank on. Larsson is, by comparison, and in my small mind, by far more steady, real, legit.

Nor did I intend to suggest the kid was a top 6 or bust. Only that he's not a top 6, not on the future Sabres team anyway. Slot him for 3c and I'm satisfied, you won't hear a peep from me on the topic all next season, I swear!

 

[Irving Zisman]

2 years, $3-3.5 mil total feels right.

In what world does a player having not even played a full season in his career earn that contract?

RFA's with more GP and points, and with more pro seasons under their belts, sign QO's..

 

[Goathead]

Id give him a 1 - 2 mil bridge deal to see if he can repeat his success again next year. He has played pretty well and its not like were tight for cap. He seems like he is finally adjusting to the American game. Everytime ive watched him lately he seems so calm and composed. To me he looks loose, like there's finally no pressure on him and he's thriving. Its not like he has magic hands but lately it seems like he just makes the necessary move to get around players and into the O-zone. If he looses the puck he's quickly back in a defensive position and he creates alot of turnovers. He's not a huge turnover machine and most of the time makes decent passes. It may just be because he's been playing with Ennis and Moulson but it seems he's either coming into his own or just really buying into the team latvian style of play.

 

[B U F F A L O]

In what world does a player having not even played a full season in his career earn that contract?

RFA's with more GP and points, and with more pro seasons under their belts, sign QO's..

Thats why I posted the 22-23 year old RFA's who signed last year. To put into perspective what these players are signing for.

You have the high end players (Niderreiter, Kreider, Schwartz), the middle end players (Eakin), and the low end players (Pirri and Zucker).

I would have to believe Larsson signs closer to Pirri and Zucker.

Im surprised that Niederreiter got a better contract than Schwartz and Kreider in terms of AAV. Although thats probably due to the extra year.

 

[Jame]

I didn't (haven't) listened to the interview, but you gotta have called it correctly. At least where TM is evaluating Larsson relative to the expected depth on the Sabres. I've been enjoying the kid this stretch, but he's just not top 6, period, much less top six with the likes of McDavid/Eitchel, Reinhart, Girgensens, even Hodgson (if he plays for the Sabres next season, and if that as a center).

Truly do enjoy the kid, but he's not a play maker any more than Girgensens, he's not got a shot, his d is average, and he's just not made guys around him better. He's doing well this stretch, kudos, but the line is not "Larsson's line". Both Moulson and Ennis could do just as well with Varone, or better with a genuine playmaking top 6 center.

Ennis w/o Larsson = .54 pts per game
Ennis w/ Larsson = .72 pts per game

Sure it's a small sample size, but it's still a sample... unlike just saying things because they sound right.

The underlined is just confusing... what player are you talking about? It's almost like you are trying to describe a player who is the exact opposite of Larsson (aside from describing his shot).

He's not top 6 "period"? Why not? He's a possession driving 2 way player, with a high level of functional hockey strength.

He's a super versatile player with a long term NHL Future. He doesn't need labels like top 6 / bottom 6. He can play anywhere. Center or Wing. Top Line, Bottom Line, and anywhere in between.

His skill was apparent last year when he was called up. He's been developing the right way. His career is going nowhere but up.

 

[mikemcburn]

Ennis w/o Larsson = .54 pts per game
Ennis w/ Larsson = .72 pts per game

Sure it's a small sample size, but it's still a sample... unlike just saying things because they sound right.

The underlined is just confusing... what player are you talking about? It's almost like you are trying to describe a player who is the exact opposite of Larsson (aside from describing his shot).

He's not top 6 "period"? Why not? He's a possession driving 2 way player, with a high level of functional hockey strength.

He's a super versatile player with a long term NHL Future. He doesn't need labels like top 6 / bottom 6. He can play anywhere. Center or Wing. Top Line, Bottom Line, and anywhere in between.

His skill was apparent last year when he was called up. He's been developing the right way. His career is going nowhere but up.

Yep, you're right, your sample is small. Very small. So I'll give it as much weight as you give, in other debates, a full season of evidence

As for Larsson's future, if he sticks to the top 6 on an actual NHL stacked roster, you can say you called it. I don't think he will, and for the reasons flagged.

To the balance of your commentary, um, okay. Glad you seem to agree with the rest of us talking the kid up. Versatile is a particularly apt descriptor too.

 

[vcv]

Thats why I posted the 22-23 year old RFA's who signed last year. To put into perspective what these players are signing for.

You have the high end players (Niderreiter, Kreider, Schwartz), the middle end players (Eakin), and the low end players (Pirri and Zucker).

I would have to believe Larsson signs closer to Pirri and Zucker.

Im surprised that Niederreiter got a better contract than Schwartz and Kreider in terms of AAV. Although thats probably due to the extra year.

Absolutely. I see 2 years for ~$900K AAV.

 

[Jame]

Yep, you're right, your sample is small. Very small. So I'll give it as much weight as you give, in other debates, a full season of evidence

2013-14 (in a defensive role)
#1 in GA per 60 (1.25)
#1 in GA/GF differential
#1 Corsi & Corsi Relative
#5 in +/- QOC
#1 in Corsi QOC

2014-15 (moved into an offensive role)
#1 in GA per 60 (1.68 nearly a full goal better than #2 Foligno 2.52
#2 in GF per 60
#1 in GF/GA differential (+0.50, a full goal better than #2 Gionta -0.50)
#1 in Corsi and Corsi Relative


Please tell me more about how his "D is average"

As for Larsson's future, if he sticks to the top 6 on an actual NHL stacked roster, you can say you called it. I don't think he will, and for the reasons flagged.

Except we know those reasons were poorly chosen.
We know he's very good defensively (GA/QOC stats)
We know he's puck dog (possession stats)
We know he's a capable playmaker (Scoring stats)

Maybe try re-assessing.

To the balance of your commentary, um, okay. Glad you seem to agree with the rest of us talking the kid up. Versatile is a particularly apt descriptor too.

I like how you always play this card.

 

[mikemcburn]

I like how you always play this card.

Do you have to try super hard to be "that guy" who gets so fixated on one sentence that you cannot accept a whole lot more has been said? Do you truly see all of life in such black 'n white terms that you cannot put a sentence into context with the whole - and accept that others live mostly in the grey?

Seriously, before playing the card of claiming I'm playing some sort of card, just stalk me a bit better. If you choose to accept this mission, you just may pick up on the fact that there's far more to what I've said of the kid than the one sentence you seem keen to try ripping apart

If not, no worries, cuz I'm sticking by my assessment. [MOD]

And no worries for you either, cuz again - the ceiling for you on that is that if Larsson does ever stick to the top 6 on any NHL stacked roster, you can come back here and say you told me so. Oh, and then quote all the stats you like while doing it - cuz at least then he'll have some numbers that cannot be easily ripped apart by context

 

[Beerz]

Trade Bait.