Forwards: Big Advantage for NJ with 1st Line (not so much after).
Much like the Les Renard team, the NJ line has a strong 1st line, led by Cyclone Taylor. However, i will say it isn't as dangerous as the Ovechkin-Mikita-Alf Smith as a whole, which i was able to overcome in the 1st round. Mikita > Taylor as is Ovechkin > Joliet. I was able to win despite that disadvantage between 1st lines, and now have a much greater + in net, and again, this top line isn't quite as good Les Renards was.
While it's a well built line it is a line that I feel i can slow down with a physical approach and stellar defensive play from Klukay - Holik - Armstrong along with my top pair of high end defensive players in Stuart-Horton. With Klukay (elite) and Armstrong's (very good) defensive play putting a major hindrance on the NJ wingers, i can force Cyclone Taylor into a more one dimensional role and having to face a bigger and vastly more physical player in Holik.
And while Holik will give up a speed advantage, you still have an elite skating blue liner in Stuart behind him as well as Horton. Even with the advantage in speed i don't see Taylor being able to run the gauntlet against the F line or D pair here. And even in a rare occurrence the D breaks down Roy is as good as it gets as a last line of defense in net. It's a 3 step defensive system and one that i feel can slow down and stop even the best built 1st lines. I don't see NJ being able to win consistently down low or in the corners. Klukay and Armstrong were bigger and were elite checkers and defensive standouts. And the high traffic areas are going to be dominated by a massive Stuart and Horton who was said to be the strongest player of his day.
As for the second lines, if we look at VsX to start there really isn't an advantage for either side. In fact i could argue that Hershey has a slight advantage:
VsX: 10 year/7 year
Lindros: 76/85
Turgeon: 78.9/82.1
Smith: N/A
Tkachuk: 73.9/79
Stasiuk: N/A/64.3
Russell: NA
It's harder to compare straight up offensive value but as you can see, from a pure offensive output, Turgeon stacks up well against Lindros when looking at the 10 year mark, in fact besting him there as we know Lindros had a major injury history and shorter career. But even at 7 years there is only a small advantage offensively for Lindros. In fact adding them together, they both come out to 161 points Vsx between 10 year/7year. Now Lindros is obviously the better player as a whole. He was tied for the lead league in scoring once and won a Hart. Obviously a very physical player, huge body. Lindros was a good playoff performer although his sample size is very small. 57 points in 53 games, whereas Turgeon had 97 in 109. So basically you have twice the sample size to pull from with the latter. Neither won a title but both were never a dead weight in the postseason despite never hoisting the SC. A big factor here is Lindros' injury history. He's going up against massive bodies like Holik/Mahovlich who aren't giving an inch physically as well as a very big and very hard hitting top 3 Dmen (Horton, Stuart and Langway). If he wants to try and win with a straight up physical approach, it's not likely to go well. Hershey has the size and physicality to match up well with Lindros and take away his greatest strength.
Tkachuk is superior to Tommy Smith by a good amount. Tkachuk is routinely an 8th or 9th round type pick (32 teams) whereas Smith generally falls down to the bottom 2/3rds of the draft (this time round 15). It's hard to quantify the super early era players from a standard offensive standpoint but Smith had a couple of stellar scoring seasons in a legit league (NHA) between 1912-1915. I don't look at him as being a particularly strong SC player. In 4 SC challenges he scored 9 goals in 9 games. Today that would be tremendous but many others had stronger (some by quite a bit) resumes as scorers in the SC finals (Ernie Russell for example). Certainly not the lower end player that Tkachuk admittedly was, but not a world beater either by my estimation.
I think Stasiuk is a better overall player than Ernie Russell but the latter is the more explosive scorer. Russell had brilliant goal scoring totals, not far off Russell Bowie's as the top scorer from the early 1900's. I think ER will be able to generate chances and my MO is to get shots on net and score dirty, tough goals. Tkachuk should do well in the slot and crease here. Russell is also very versatile as he played significant time at C, RW and rover during his HOF career.
The big thing Russell brings to my team and 2nd line is incredible SC dominance. His play during the SC challenge games is only rivaled by one of my other F's (Frank Foyston) and perhaps Frank Nighbor. He also had a huge game in a Cup final vs the NJ Swamp Devils goalie, Hugh Lehman, beating him 4 times for goals in a 7-3 win. Consider:
Russell's Stanley Cup Scoring Dominance
According to The Trail Of the Stanley Cup, here are the playoff and cup final goals leaders through 1926:
Name|GP|G
Frank McGee|22|63
Frank Foyston|47|37
Alf Smith|22|36
Ernie Russell
|11|31
Newsy Lalonde|29|27
Tom Phillips|16|27
Harry Westwick|24|26
Marty Walsh|8|25
Ernie Johnson|21|23
Joe Malone|15|23
Pud Glass|16|23
Harry Smith|7|21
But, not all cup games are created equal. Some players played in easy Stanley Cup matches, including Russell. Let's look at the leaders as apples-to-apples, three different ways. First, here are these leaders with "easy" matches removed:
Name|GP|G
Frank Foyston
|47|37
Newsy Lalonde|29|27
Frank McGee|14|26
Tom Phillips|14|23
Ernie Russell
|8|18
Ernie Johnson|16|18
Alf Smith|14|14
Harry Smith|5|13
Pud Glass|11|13
Harry Westwick|16|11
Joe Malone|12|9
Marty Walsh|3|7
Russell is one of only three on this list who averaged over 2 GPG in the "legitimate" matches, the others being Harry Smith and Marty Walsh, who combined for 8 "legitimate" matches.
Now let's look at only the Wanderer forwards during the years in which they played cup games (1906-1910) since the core of the team stayed mostly the same:
Name|GP|G
Ernie Russell
|11|31
Pud Glass|16|23
Ernie Johnson|16|19
Lester Patrick|8|11
***** *********|7|5
But of course, some of those were the easy, lopsided games. Let's look at these Wanderers forwards based on just the "legitimate" matches:
Name|GP|G
Ernie Russell
|8|18
Pud Glass|11|13
Ernie Johnson|11|13
Lester Patrick|6|7
***** *********|5|4
So not only did Russell carry the offensive load for this dynasty, but he also relied very little on lopsided matches to boost his totals.
Ernie Russell evidence playing on wing (for most of 1906)
Originally Posted by The Montreal Gazette: March 3, 1906:
Blatchford is not yet in shape to play, but Lester Patrick is, and he will be out in the rover position, Ernie Russell leaving centre for the wing.
Originally Posted by The Montreal Gazette: December 27, 1906:
Russell.....L. Wing
Lester Patrick and Russell were the most consistent players throughout, their work being evident in the first half as well as in the second.
New Glasgow was a man short when Russell moved into the limelight and scored goal three.
Lester Patrick moved down the ice in nice style and handed the puck to Russell, who slipped it past Morrison.
Originally Posted by The Montreal Gazette: February 15, 1906:
Wanderers win 6-2 over Montreal
Russell.......Right wing
Summary:--
2.....Wanderers....Russell.......3.00
5.....Wanderers....Russell.......2.00
Originally Posted by The Montreal Gazette: March 12. 1906
Russell......Right......
SUMMARY.
1. Wanderers....Russell....6.55
2. Wanderers....Russell....10.05
3. Wanderers....Russell....6.00
SECOND HALF.
6. Wanderers....Russell....4.55
8. Wanderers....Russell....2.32
13. Wanderers...Russell... .22
Russell Scores 4 Goals against Hugh Lehman in Stanley Cup Championship at RW
Originally Posted by Wikipedia
NHA league champions take over Stanley Cup[edit]
The Wanderers having won the O'Brien trophy won regular season championship of the NHA and took possession of the Cup from Ottawa. They had a challenge from Berlin, champions of the Ontario Professional Hockey League and easily defeated them. For 1910, there would be two Stanley Cup holders, Ottawa until March, and Montreal for the rest of the year.
§Wanderers vs. Berlin[edit]
March 12
Berlin 3 at Wanderers 7
Hugh Lehman, Capt. G William "Riley" Hern|
Albert Seibert 1 P Jack Marshall|
Harvey Corbeau 1 CP Ernie Johnson|
E. "Toad" Edmunds RO Frank "Pud" Glass, Capt.|
Roy Anderson C Harry Hyland 3|
Ezra Dumart
RW Ernie Russell 4|
Oren Frood 1 LW Jimmy Gardner|
I think when looking at the 3rd lines you have two players on Hershey that are superior as 3rd line players to any 3 of the NJ 3rd line players. Klukay is arguably the greatest defensive winger of all time and an elite PK option to match. Armstrong brings a strong all around game with elite leadership and championship experience as a Captain. Herhsey has a stronger defensive presence and a more physical line all together here if looking at things in a traditional sense. I don't see Paiement as anything other than a scoring power forward on some really poor historical teams in the 70's/80's. I certainly don't think he'll do much in the way of halting an opposing W defensively from what i can gather through bio's and a look at his numbers overall. He obviously brings solid offensive value for a 3rd line player though.
Colville is another player who i think is probably stronger offensively than on D (although he was more of a 2 way player and no slouch in his own end). His VsX (72.1) is solid for a 3rd line C but if i feel like i need to up the offensive acumen on my 3rd unit i can always shift Mahovlich up and his VsX is actually slightly better over 7 years at 73.8.
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1361409&page=8 and again Mahovlich is going to bring a massive body and even more superior PK ability in an all time sense than Colville will. Holik as it stands was a pretty strong defensive player in his own right with a solid Selke record for a player drafted in the 500+ range (5, 7, 9, 11, 14). He also played the bulk of his career in the dead puck era, on a massively tilted defensive minded team in NJ and still managed to put up 50+ points 6 times and 0.57 PPG without featuring much in a top 6 role or getting big PP time. Also the Hershey line features a wealth of SC winning experience with Klukay (4), Armstrong (4) and Holik (2) / Mahovlich (4) combining for 10/12 Cup wins.
Again another strong unit for both squads in multiple areas. I certainly think Hershey has an advantage defensively at ES here as well as being a flat out bigger and more physical group (NJ squad is scrappy for sure won't argue that). NJ has an advantage offensively if looking at the overall numbers we have at our disposal. But again, when factoring in all aspects i think this is close to a wash.
Getting to the 4th line, again i think this is an advantage for Hershey. I'll argue that I have one of the most physical and talented 4th line groups in this draft. The goal for this line is to pound other teams into their own zone and cycle the puck while generating dirty chances. Basically hem the other team in as much as possible and be aggressive in getting the puck deep. No flash needed.
Tocchet is about as ideal as you can get on the 4th line. He brings huge energy, relentless checking at both ends and solid scoring numbers for a 4th line player. Obviously also a near heavy weight if you need to drop the gloves as well. Strong postseason numbers as well especially during his Cup winning run with Pittsburgh. Mahovlich is another strong option on a 4th line. Huge body, can out muscle almost anyone and is at his best playing a physical brand of hockey (bio). Was a standout PK'er in the first half of his career for Montreal AND team Canada. Then blossomed into a higher end play making C later in the 70's when paired with Lafleur. Also, another strong postseason player with 4 titles to his name. Mantha, lastly was more of a defensive specialist but one who was noted to be at least as fast as Howie Morenz and shadowed and shut down the likes of Charlie Conacher (bio). He'll be great on the fore check with his speed getting to the corners and working the boards as well as shadowing scoring line W's. Had a couple of very solid scoring seasons when paired with Morenz later in the 30's. Multiple SC winner.
Special Teams: Wash
Again, i think when looking at our rosters you'll see one has an advantage on the PP and the other on the PK.
Looking at the PK units, i think Hershey has a strong advantage, especially 1st units. The only player on the Bears 1st unit who isn't elite as a PK'er would be Mahovlich and he's still quite good considering his exploits in the Summit series and in 74 being named as tied for 1st as the best penalty killer in the NHL by a coaches poll. Obviously Langway-Horton is going to be elite down a man and Roy is as good as it gets in net. Klukay and Mahovlich (especially him with his reach and size) will really push opposing point men into making quick decisions and creating turnovers in the process. The crease will often be void of opposing forwards with Horton and Langway working down low. Obviously taking away shooting lanes and giving Roy a clear line of sight is paramount and i think this unit will be stellar at doing that.
I don't think NJ's top PK group is all that strong compared to mine. Sullivan is a guy i like and solid option at C but was he ever considered the best in the NHL at killing penalties like Mahovlich was?. Gottselig was another guy who was good but outside of a handful of paper clippings i don't know if you can say he's great. He's certainly not in Klukay's class who's exploits are well documented and folks like Stan Fischler put Joe as one of the 2-3 greatest defensive W's/PK's of all time. Schoenfeld and Arbour are specialists. I think Schoenfeld is a legit #1. He's got strong PK usage and very good kill %'s. Arbour seems very average though. Then Lehman is a big step down from Roy, obviously.
As for the 2nd units, I think they each have solid players and guys who are probably average(ish) or thereabouts. George Armstrong is a pretty strong 2nd unit F. Oates is about average. He was a really good faceoff man and did spend a good chunk of time on the PK in Boston and Washington. Here's a graph i found showing Oates' strong usage despite playing heavy PP minutes and being a top 6 F. Oates certainly is no world beater as PK'er but he seems to have enough history on the kill to be sufficient in a 2nd unit role. He obviously adds some counter ability going the other way over most traditional defensive only F's.
Yes. Here's a junk stat to calculate which forwards played the largest role on both special teams over their career - PP% multiplied by SH%. It doesn't mean anything in itself, simply finds the players with large contributions in both areas over their careers.
Rk | Player | GP | PP% | SH% | PPxSH
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 1487 | 82% | 31% | 0.26
2 | Mario Lemieux | 915 | 94% | 26% | 0.25
3 | Red Berenson | 821 | 62% | 40% | 0.25
4 | Steve Yzerman | 1514 | 69% | 35% | 0.24
5 | Rod Brind'Amour | 1404 | 52% | 46% | 0.24
6 | Dale Mccourt | 532 | 60% | 40% | 0.24
7 | Bobby Clarke | 1147 | 59% | 40% | 0.23
8 | Mark Messier | 1756 | 56% | 41% | 0.23
9 | Phil Esposito | 1047 | 82% | 27% | 0.22
10 | Bill Barber | 903 | 67% | 33% | 0.22
11 | Butch Goring | 1107 | 46% | 46% | 0.21
12 | Pavel Bure | 702 | 73% | 28% | 0.20
13 | Joe Sakic | 1378 | 79% | 25% | 0.20
14 | Doug Gilmour | 1474 | 58% | 34% | 0.20
15 |
Adam Oates
| 1337 |
72%
|
27%
| 0.19
16 | Ron Francis | 1731 | 73% | 25% | 0.18
17 | Barry Pederson | 701 | 51% | 36% | 0.18
18 | Stan Mikita | 845 | 71% | 25% | 0.18
19 | Frank Mahovlich | 511 | 70% | 26% | 0.18
20 | Gregg Sheppard | 657 | 35% | 51% | 0.18
21 | Sergei Fedorov | 1249 | 58% | 31% | 0.18
22 | Neal Broten | 1099 | 48% | 37% | 0.18
23 | Alexei Zhamnov | 807 | 71% | 25% | 0.17
24 | Andrew Cassels | 1015 | 55% | 31% | 0.17
25 | Mike Modano | 1400 | 63% | 27% | 0.17
I'd consider
Hod Stuart above average on a 2nd line role simply because he was regarded as an elite defender in his day. His huge size and physical nature should do well down low protecting the crease and clearing out bodies and blocking shots.
Numminen is another player who is
probably underrated in his PK role. Again, going back to the PK usage charts, he played at a near 47% clip and had better than the league average numbers.
A really good comparison is Dejardins. Both played well over 1000 games and killed almost idential % of penalties (ED 47 and TN 46%) and had almost identical above average kill % (ED 0.95 and TN 0.94). The lower the number on the far right the better.
60 | Robyn Regehr | 663 | 47% | 1.04
61 | Sami Salo | 597 | 47% | 0.91
62 | Jay Mckee | 740 | 47% | 0.86
63 | Eric Desjardins | 1143 | 47% | 0.95
64 | Jerry Korab | 825 | 47% | 0.83
65 | Bob Lorimer | 529 | 46% | 1.06
66 | Dale Rolfe | 506 | 46% | 1.01
67 |
Teppo Numminen
|
1372
|
46%
|
0.94
68 | Brendan Witt | 848 | 46% | 1.03
69 | Ed Van Impe | 639 | 46% | 0.82
70 | Joel Quenneville | 803 | 46% | 0.99
71 | Mattias Ohlund | 760 | 46% | 1.00
72 | Mario Marois | 955 | 45% | 0.94
73 | Reed Larson | 904 | 45% | 1.10
74 | Scott Hannan | 671 | 45% | 1.01
75 | Jason Smith | 1008 | 45% | 0.94
76 | Uwe Krupp | 729 | 45% | 0.94
77 | Calle Johansson | 1109 | 45% | 0.87
78 | Dimitri Yushkevich | 786 | 45% | 1.06
79 | Don Awrey | 842 | 45% | 0.90
80 | Bryan Mccabe | 986 | 45% | 1.04
81 | Larry Robinson | 1384 | 45% | 0.86
82 | Toni Lydman | 593 | 45% | 0.97
83 | Rob Ramage | 1044 | 45% | 1.06
84 | Filip Kuba | 602 | 45% | 0.91
85 | Phil Russell | 1016 | 45% | 0.96
86 | Murray Baron | 988 | 44% | 1.02
87 | Ian Turnbull | 628 | 44% | 1.03
88 | Steve Konroyd | 895 | 44% | 1.02
89 | Nick Schultz | 526 | 44% | 0.74
90 | Joe Watson | 763 | 44% | 0.84
91 | Robert Svehla | 655 | 44% | 1.05
92 | Mike O'Connell | 860 | 44% | 0.87
93 | Sean O'Donnell | 1014 | 44% | 0.93
94 | Bill Houlder | 846 | 44% | 0.96
95 | Doug Jarrett | 593 | 44% | 0.84
96 | Mark Hardy | 915 | 44% | 1.12
97 | Doug Bodger | 1071 | 44% | 0.92
98 | Ted Harris | 598 | 44% | 1.06
99 | Sylvain Lefebvre | 945 | 43% | 0.96
100 | Keith Carney | 1018 | 43% | 0.87
............................Going to finish up bottom 6 F's tonight/tomorrow......................
