Jim Robson Division Final - Philadelphia Flyers vs. Victoria Salsa

[Hawkey Town 18]

Philadelphia Flyers
Coach: Jack Adams
Captain: Johnny Bucyk
Assistant Captains: Jim Schoenfeld, Larry Aurie

Bobby Hull-Vladimir Petrov-Theo Fleury
Johnny Bucyk-Jean Ratelle-Dany Heatley
John Madden-Don Luce-Larry Aurie
Al Secord-Troy Murray-Jimmy Ward
Lynn Patrick, Ken Linseman, Tom Anderson

Borje Salming-Mike Grant
Hod Stuart-Jim Schoenfeld
Gary Bergman-Glen Harmon
Miroslav Dvorak, Tom Anderson

Glenn Hall
Mikka Kiprusoff

PP1
Dany Heatley-Vladimir Petrov-Theo Fleury
Borje Salming-Bobby Hull

PP2
Johnny Bucyk-Jean Ratelle-Larry Aurie
Hod Stuart-Glen Harmon

PK1
Don Luce-John Madden
Hod Stuart-Mike Grant

PK2
Troy Murray-Larry Aurie
Borje Salming-Mike Grant

PK3
Don Luce-John Madden
Gary Bergman-Glen Harmon

VS.

VICTORIA SALSA​

Head Coach: Punch Imlach
Captain: Jean Beliveau
Alternate Captains: Alex Delvecchio, Earl Seibert


Doug Mohns - Jean Beliveau (C) – Rod Gilbert
Alex Delvecchio (A) – Mickey MacKay – Vic Stasiuk
Don Marshall - Ralph Backstrom –Claude Provost
Camille Henry - Ivan Hlinka - Cully Wilson


Doug Wilson - Earl Seibert (A)
Barry Beck – Alexei Kasatonov
Carol Vadnais - Jamie Macoun

Spares: Eric Staal - C, Dave "Tiger" Williams - LW, Stan Smyl - RW, Brian Engblom - D


Martin Brodeur
Mike Vernon



PP1
Camille Henry - Jean Beliveau – Rod Gilbert
Alex Delvecchio – Doug Wilson

PP2
Doug Mohns – Ivan Hlinka - Mickey MacKay
Barry Beck – Carol Vadnais


PK 1
Don Marshall – Claude Provost
Earl Seibert - Alexei Kasatonov

PK 2
Alex Delvecchio - Mickey MacKay
Jamie Macoun – Barry Beck
​

Click to read more...

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Look forward to a good series, Mark. I look forward to a civilized and well thought out debate.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Look forward to a good series, Mark. I look forward to a civilized and well thought out debate.

Pffft..

 

[Velociraptor]

Look forward to a good series, Mark. I look forward to a civilized and well thought out debate.

This should be good.

 

[markrander87]

Good luck Billy, looking forward to the series.

First off I am happy we get to meet. After you drafted Bobby Hull and were in my division I knew i'd have to beat you if I wanted to go deep this year.

If any player was known to shut down Bobby Hull it is Claude Provost. Provost to me was the best strategy pick over this entire draft. Having a RW like Provost will payout massive dividends when playing a team like yourself.

 

[markrander87]

From first glance these 2 teams are very close. The biggest difference is in the 3rd lines. Philly has a good 3rd line but Victoria has the clear edge here. Is Luce going to be able to handle Beliveau?

 

[markrander87]

Although his point men on PP 1 are great, Dany Heatley-Vladimir Petrov-Theo Fleury has got to be one of the weaker 1st unit PP forward groups in the league.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Fight Fight Fight Fight

 

[BillyShoe1721]

1st Lines

Hull: 107.1
Petrov: 85.65
Fleury: 82.3

Mohns: 60.6
Beliveau: 105.9
Gilbert: 80.2

Philadelphia total: 275.05
Victoria total: 246.7

Here is what HR has for Mohns in terms of VsX scores and positions:

53-54(LW): 44
54-55(LW): 43
56-57(LW): 56*
59-60(LW): 56*
61-62(D/RW): 54*
65-66(LW): 63
66-67(D): 86*
67-68(LW): 63

*Year that doesn't pass the smell test. In 56-57, his stat line of 6 goals and 34 assists screams "defenseman". Unless he was doing crazy corner and board work, I think it's safe to say he's a defenseman. He was also 5th in Norris voting that season, so it's safe to say he was a defenseman. He was also 5th in Norris in 61-62, and 8th in 59-60, where he was listed as a D/RW and LW, respectively. For 66-67, Mohns was definitely not a defenseman; he was on the Scooter line with Mikita and Wharram at that point. Right now, the score above is a 7 year VsX of all seasons; if you do VsX of just seasons where he was a forward(or partially in the case of 61-62), his score over 6 seasons is 51.61.

I'm open to logical alterations to this formula to make sense of him as a forward. Regardless, he is clearly the worst offensive player on either line. As I said in assassinations, there's a reason he was used as a defenseman in three of the past four ATDs before this one (and the one where he was used as a forward it was to reunite him with Mikita). His value as a defenseman is clearly better than as a winger.

In terms of defensive play, neither line stands out. I'd say Philadelphia is the more physical group; all three bring some toughness to the table whereas Mohns is the only physical player from Victoria. Chemistry-wise, both lines fit together fine. One thing to note is that Jean Beliveau is the real bellcow of this line, which is something he never really had to do in real life. He's a rare case in the ATD that is actually playing with worse linemates. In real life, he regularly played with Dickie Moore, Bert Olmstead, and Boom Boom Geoffrion.

Overall, first lines are an advantage to Philadelphia due to a pretty clear offensive advantage.

 

[markrander87]

1st Lines

Hull: 107.1
Petrov: 85.65
Fleury: 82.3

Mohns: 60.6
Beliveau: 105.9
Gilbert: 80.2

Philadelphia total: 275.05
Victoria total: 246.7

Here is what HR has for Mohns in terms of VsX scores and positions:

53-54(LW): 44
54-55(LW): 43
56-57(LW): 56*
59-60(LW): 56*
61-62(D/RW): 54*
65-66(LW): 63
66-67(D): 86*
67-68(LW): 63

*Year that doesn't pass the smell test. In 56-57, his stat line of 6 goals and 34 assists screams "defenseman". Unless he was doing crazy corner and board work, I think it's safe to say he's a defenseman. He was also 5th in Norris voting that season, so it's safe to say he was a defenseman. He was also 5th in Norris in 61-62, and 8th in 59-60, where he was listed as a D/RW and LW, respectively. For 66-67, Mohns was definitely not a defenseman; he was on the Scooter line with Mikita and Wharram at that point. Right now, the score above is a 7 year VsX of all seasons; if you do VsX of just seasons where he was a forward(or partially in the case of 61-62), his score over 6 seasons is 51.61.

I'm open to logical alterations to this formula to make sense of him as a forward. Regardless, he is clearly the worst offensive player on either line. As I said in assassinations, there's a reason he was used as a defenseman in three of the past four ATDs before this one (and the one where he was used as a forward it was to reunite him with Mikita). His value as a defenseman is clearly better than as a winger.

In terms of defensive play, neither line stands out. I'd say Philadelphia is the more physical group; all three bring some toughness to the table whereas Mohns is the only physical player from Victoria. Chemistry-wise, both lines fit together fine. One thing to note is that Jean Beliveau is the real bellcow of this line, which is something he never really had to do in real life. He's a rare case in the ATD that is actually playing with worse linemates. In real life, he regularly played with Dickie Moore, Bert Olmstead, and Boom Boom Geoffrion.


Overall, first lines are an advantage to Philadelphia due to a pretty clear offensive advantage.

Not so fast Billy...

For starters the Vsx numbers which you built and drafted your team around can only take you so far. Defensively Victorias First line is head and shoulders better then Phillys. Who will be covering for Hull? Petrov? (lol at his vsX number where did that come from) surely Theo Fleury will not be the defensive presence on the line nor the primary puck winner. Sure he is feisty, but that will only go so far especially against Earl Seibert and the rest of my top 4.

Who will be winning the pucks for Bobby? Fortunately for me the guy he needs (Mohns) is on my roster.

Are Petrov and Fleury the linemates required to get the most out of Bobby Hull?

You are criminally underrating Jean Beliveau he was known to be used in any situation and was also well known as making any linemate who played with him infinitely better. Also don't sleep on Beliveaus toughness, his size was one of his biggest assets.


The Vsx argument will not work in this series, Bobby Hull is in for a world of hurt with Claude Provost, Earl Seibert and Co. Can you elaborate on how this line will function? Is Petrov both the puck winner and defensive presence?

 

[BillyShoe1721]

2nd Lines

Bucyk: 86.3
Ratelle: 88.5
Heatley: 81.5

Delvecchio: 84.9
MacKay: 83.85 (proxy average of the two centers above and below him in the centers project, Savard and Sundin)
Stasiuk: 66.5

Philadelphia total: 256.3
Victoria total: 235.25

The number for MacKay is being pretty generous considering a good bit his value is derived from defensive play.

In terms of physicality, Philadelphia probably has a slight advantage. Stasiuk and Bucyk are the only tough ones on either line, and Bucyk was more physical than Stasiuk. Chemistry-wise, both lines fit together pretty well.

Victoria definitely has an advantage in defensive play from their line. MacKay was a strong two-way player, Stasiuk was an above average defensive player, and Delvecchio brings some defensive ability. I think Delvecchio's defensive abilities have been overrated in the past. I originally wanted him to center Bobby Hull, but was scooped one pick early. In my research of him, I found pretty much nothing about his two-way play in terms of quotes. Nothing from LOH or Pelletier, and in a fairly in-depth Google book and archive search, I found nothing. All I can find is him being named in the 1958 Coaches' Poll as someone receiving votes for "Best Defensive Forward, Checker". Red Sullivan had the most votes, followed by Olmstead, Mickoski, and Delvecchio. That's a very interesting group to be named best defensive forward, "checker". Around these parts, none of those guys have ever been really highly regarded as great defensive players. Sullivan was an annoying agitator that was a good penalty killer, Olmstead the ultimate mucker and grinder in the corners, and Mickoski another corner-man with some defensive ability. Not to cast doubt on NHL coaches from the time; they certainly saw more of these guys than we did. But from what I can see, they may have taken a different approach to defining "checker" considering three of those four, excluding Delvecchio, were known more for their physicality and board work than defensive prowess. So in a roundabout way, I think Delvecchio's defensive abilities have been overrated in the past.

Philadelphia has the advantage in second lines due to a clear offensive advantage that isn't overcome by Victoria's defensive edge.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Not so fast Billy...

For starters the Vsx numbers which you built and drafted your team around can only take you so far. Defensively Victorias First line is head and shoulders better then Phillys. Who will be covering for Hull? Petrov? (lol at his vsX number where did that come from) surely Theo Fleury will not be the defensive presence on the line nor the primary puck winner. Sure he is feisty, but that will only go so far especially against Earl Seibert and the rest of my top 4.

The number for Petrov is an average of the 7 year VsX of the NHL center directly above and below him in the HOH Top 60 Centers Project. In this case, Denis Savard & Dale Hawerchuk. I used that methodology the past two rounds to nobody's objection, so I think it's at least a good proxy, the best we've got. I disagree that your first line is "head and shoulders" above defensively. Mohns brings solid two-way play, but other than that, I'm not seeing it. Gilbert has no defensive resume to speak of, and Beliveau is a plus defensive player at this level. While they aren't defensive experts, Petrov and Fleury are small defensive pluses at this level. As I said, neither of these lines are world-beaters defensively. They're here for their offense, which Philadelphia's is much better at.

Who will be winning the pucks for Bobby? Fortunately for me the guy he needs (Mohns) is on my roster.

Are Petrov and Fleury the linemates required to get the most out of Bobby Hull?

They absolutely are. Hull, himself, has said that he was most comfortable playing with Phil Esposito and Chico Maki. This line is modeled after both the linemates that made Hull successful, and the ones that Petrov played with in the Soviet Union. Petrov is a strong goal-scoring center that was an underrated playmaker (just like Esposito) and Fleury is a speedy complement with some physicality. Hull, like Kharlamov, is a puck-dominant left winger that loved to carry the puck through the neutral zone himself. Petrov is Petrov; he's used to playing with a puck hog at left wing, and Fleury plays the role of Mikhailov, a physical (albeit smaller) goalscorer. With Esposito at Hull's side (3 years from 64-65 to 66-67), Hull led the league in goals-per-game every year, and led the league in goals twice. They won't be a dump-and-chase, cycling, muck it out line. That's not the game Hull played, and I tailored it around making him successful.

The Vsx argument will not work in this series, Bobby Hull is in for a world of hurt with Claude Provost, Earl Seibert and Co. Can you elaborate on how this line will function? Is Petrov both the puck winner and defensive presence?

See above on how the line will function. I'll give you credit for having the foresight to draft a defensive specialist at right wing to play the stronglright wingers in our division; it was a smart strategic move. However, just having Provost doesn't nullify the best left winger ever. Seibert is an average #1 defenseman that was physical, but is not a world beater. Just saying these guys are going to tear Hull apart doesn't mean they will.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

3rd Lines

Marshall and Madden are both strong third line wingers with very good defensive resumes and adequate offense. Marshall has the advantage in 7 year adjusted ES scoring with 35.97 to Madden's 33.13. Defensively, Marshall was rewarded two Retro Selkes by UH, and Madden won once Selke(when he is listed as a left wing, mind you), was second two other times, and has a fifth and tenth place finish as well. It's a close matchup, but I'd give the slight advantage to Marshall due to his offensive advantage.

Similar to the left wings, these two guys are very close as well. In 7 year adjusted ES, they are essentially even with Luce slightly ahead of Backstrom, 45.47 to 45.36. However, beyond seven years Backstrom has much stronger longevity compared to Luce, giving Backstrom an advantage in offensive ability. Defensively, I think Luce has a bit of an edge. He was known as one of the best defensive centers of his day, whereas I see Backstrom as a very strong two-way player, but looking at quotes the only time he was ever considered the "best" was talking about the 1974 Summit Series roster. I'll give Backstrom the slight advantage because his offensive longevity is clearly better than Luce's, and it's hard to quantify how much better defensively Luce was.

Provost is a legendary defensive right wing, maybe the best ever so he's got a very clear defensive advantage over Aurie here. I can't do a true ES comparison for Aurie since we don't have his numbers, but looking at the rosters of the teams he played on, I'd venture to guess he did not receive a lot of PP time until 1933-34, when his offense sees a big spike. He was usually not the top scoring RW (behind Cooper or Carson) until then. At that point in the NHL, I'm pretty sure the first unit played the entire two minutes on the PP. Aurie will be playing the PP here, so his total offensive contribution will be close to his 7 year VsX of 72.7, maybe slightly less. Provost's 7 year VsX is 66.9, and won't be playing the PP. In his career, 84% of his offense came at ES. I'd give Aurie the slight offensive advantage, but it's not enough to overcome Provost's defensive advantage, so Provost is the superior player.

Overall, the third lines are an advantage to Victoria. They've got a slight advantage offensively, and a decent sized advantage defensively because of the presence of Provost.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

4th Lines

Henry doesn't play a typical fourth line game, but is certainly a strong offensive player for a 4th line. His real value here is on the PP, so at even strength his effectiveness is going to be limited considering he'll see few minutes other than the PP. Secord plays a typical physical 4th line game, but doesn't have the offensive resume of Henry. Secord will be more effective at even strength, Henry will be useful to Victoria on the PP.

Hlinka is better offensively than Murray, Murray better defensively. Hlinka will contribute on the power play and is not a typical fourth liner at ES, Murray contributes on the PK and plays a typical fourth line game. They contribute to the team in different ways.

Finally, two guys that actually play like 4th liners in Ward and Wilson. Wilson is a goon that had a little offensive ability; Ward was a jack of all trades that was a good two-way player, could chip in offense, and had some sandpaper to his game. I'd say Ward is the better overall player.

At even strength, the Philadelphia group will be more effective because they play a grinding, two-way style throughout. Victoria's will be more useful on their PP, as their 4th line is more of a group of specialists than one unit. They're both effective in different ways.

 

[markrander87]

It's tough to argue with most of the above Billy that was well done. I will say that Ralph Backstrom is more then just a "good two0way player". Check out his Bio:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=60983033&postcount=126 and http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=24314773&postcount=65


My third line is the perfect set up to slow down Bobby Hull. There are numerous quotes of Claude Provost being able to shut him down:


An example:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Saskatooon Star-Phoenix

Bobby Hull had high praise Tuesday night for Montreal's Claude Provost, who has limited the great Chicago winger to five shots on goal in two Stanley Cup final games. He described Provost as a "hell of a good skater, strong, and dedicated."

Provost was Hull's master again Tuesday night, keeping the blond winger to four shots on net as the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Chicago Black Hawks 2-0 for a two-game lead in the series.

Asked if it was Provost's labors - or his own ineptness - that has prevented him from breaking out, Hull replied: "I imagine it's Provost."

It has already been proven that Provost by all accounts was able to easily shut down Bobby Hull. This massive advantage cannot be understated.

Will Luce have the same effectiveness with Jean Beliveau?


In terms of 4th lines I had mentioned in the roster thread that alex Delvecchio will be double shifted at times to play on the 4th line as well. He is use to huge minutes so an advantage I have with putting him on my 2nd line is that he can eat 3-4 more ES minutes per game on my 4th line making it:

Delvecchio - Hlinka - Wilson

Don't sleep on Cully Wilson, he is one of 70's favorites for a reason. If you want to talk about a grinding style then look no further:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=24877529&postcount=147

I'd like to point out that Wilson elevated his game in the playoffs:

He was also a great play-off performer:
- Led Toronto with 3 goals in the 1914 Finals
- Led Seattle with 4 assists in the 1917 Finals
- Led Calgary with 5 goals in the 1924 Finals

 

[markrander87]

I'd like for some voters who are viewing this series to way in. I admit this is a very very tight 2 teams top to bottom. Am I wrong in stressing a important Provost will be in this series?

 

[BraveCanadian]

It has already been proven that Provost by all accounts was able to easily shut down Bobby Hull. This massive advantage cannot be understated.

I think you're massively overstating it.

Hull had 7 points on Chicago's 16 total goals for vs. Provost and Montreal in '61, including 4 points on the final 6 goals by Chicago as they shutout Montreal 3-0 in the final two games to clinch the series.

He had 6 points in 6 games against them in '62 as they again beat Montreal and Provost in the first round. Chicago again shutting Montreal out in the deciding game.

If I am counting correctly that is 13 points in 12 games those two series in which Chicago beat Montreal coming immediately after Montreal won 5 Cups in a row.

I'm sure Provost will do as good a job as anyone matched against Hull but lets not pretend he completely negates him. I mean its Bobby Hull!

I mean I have my trio of Balon / Otto / Westfall for very similar strategic reasons but I'm not going to claim they are going to completely zero out the opposition.

 

[markrander87]

I think you're massively overstating it.

Hull had 7 points on Chicago's 16 total goals for vs. Provost and Montreal in '61, including 4 points on the final 6 goals by Chicago as they shutout Montreal 3-0 in the final two games to clinch the series.

He had 6 points in 6 games against them in '62 as they again beat Montreal and Provost in the first round. Chicago again shutting Montreal out in the deciding game.

If I am counting correctly that is 13 points in 12 games those two series in which Chicago beat Montreal coming immediately after Montreal won 5 Cups in a row.

I'm sure Provost will do as good a job as anyone matched against Hull but lets not pretend he completely negates him. I mean its Bobby Hull!

I mean I have my trio of Balon / Otto / Westfall for very similar strategic reasons but I'm not going to claim they are going to completely zero out the opposition.

You are correct, perhaps "easily shutting down Hull" was hyperbole. what my point is that I still stand by is that Provost (even stated by Hull below) was the best at shadowing him. There is no questioning the facts. Sure Hull is still going to score, but his overall value takes a big hit here. How often in an ATD playoff series is there documented proof straight from the horses mouth that one team has the best player to shadow another teams top scorers.

But he respects Claude Provost and thinks he does the most effective job of covering him….Provost stays close, yet he gets the odd goal himselfâ€

http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...58tAAAAIBAJ&sjid=sJ8FAAAAIBAJ&pg=5404,2782580

Some other examples of Provost on Hull:

Provost was married to Hull for 12 seasons

http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...5cuAAAAIBAJ&sjid=kKEFAAAAIBAJ&pg=4287,1129712

1965 Cup win Provost was praised for shutting down Hull in the finals

http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...Z0tAAAAIBAJ&sjid=YJ8FAAAAIBAJ&pg=7172,1014604

 

[markrander87]

Who is the better playoff goaltender?

Although Glenn Hall had an excellent career his playoff resume is very thin. I know there are more factors but as a whole Martin Brodeur has a much better playoff resume with 3 cups compared to Halls one.

Also looking at GAA

- Brodeurs career Regular seasons GAA was 2.24 - Career Playoff was 2.02

- Halls career regular season GAA was 2.49 - Career playoff was 2.78


Was Hall able to elevate his game during the Playoffs? Who is the better, proven goaltender?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I think you're massively overstating it.

Hull had 7 points on Chicago's 16 total goals for vs. Provost and Montreal in '61, including 4 points on the final 6 goals by Chicago as they shutout Montreal 3-0 in the final two games to clinch the series.

He had 6 points in 6 games against them in '62 as they again beat Montreal and Provost in the first round. Chicago again shutting Montreal out in the deciding game.

If I am counting correctly that is 13 points in 12 games those two series in which Chicago beat Montreal coming immediately after Montreal won 5 Cups in a row.

I'm sure Provost will do as good a job as anyone matched against Hull but lets not pretend he completely negates him. I mean its Bobby Hull!

I mean I have my trio of Balon / Otto / Westfall for very similar strategic reasons but I'm not going to claim they are going to completely zero out the opposition.

I have no idea what the numbers are but when looking at how one player checked another you should really only be looking at even strength scoring.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I have no idea what the numbers are but when looking at how one player checked another you should really only be looking at even strength scoring.

When the there is a blanket claim that one player is going to easily shut down another player I don't think it matters.

And in any case Provost and Hull will also meet on their respective first PK and PP here.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

When the there is a blanket claim that one player is going to easily shut down another player I don't think it matters.

And in any case Provost and Hull will also meet on their respective first PK and PP here.

Making a claim is fine but if you're going to use numbers to support the argument they should be even strength (for me personally there seems to be enough anecdotal evidence here that I don't really need numbers). No one shadows another player on the PK tho, it is a team system. The team can cheat towards a particular threat like teams today taking away stamkos shot on the PP but you can't have one player just follow another on the PK like you can at ES. If someone were to do that the player being covered could take advantage and open up huge holes for his teammates.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Making a claim is fine but if you're going to use numbers to support the argument they should be even strength (for me personally there seems to be enough anecdotal evidence here that I don't really need numbers). No one shadows another player on the PK tho, it is a team system. The team can cheat towards a particular threat like teams today taking away stamkos shot on the PP but you can't have one player just follow another on the PK like you can at ES. If someone were to do that the player being covered could take advantage and open up huge holes for his teammates.

It is always a team effort.

I don't care enough to bother digging into it any further. The claim that one player was going to easily shut down Bobby Hull is just false -- although Provost may in fact do as good a job as anyone could.

In those couple of series that I did bother to count up, Hull was presumably playing against Provost at ES and on the PP just as he is here and he scored more than a point per game.

 

[markrander87]

It is always a team effort.

I don't care enough to bother digging into it any further. The claim that one player was going to easily shut down Bobby Hull is just false -- although Provost may in fact do as good a job as anyone could.

In those couple of series that I did bother to count up, Hull was presumably playing against Provost at ES and on the PP just as he is here and he scored more than a point per game.

Where are you trying to get at with this? Are you arguing that Provost is not the best player of all time to match up against Hull?

Victoria has the best RW in the history of hockey to match up against Phillys top scorer.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Where are you trying to get at with this? Are you arguing that Provost is not the best player of all time to match up against Hull?

Victoria has the best RW in the history of hockey to match up against Phillys top scorer.

That is not what I said at all

However, your bolded is another hyperbolic claim.

How many top checking RWs through hockey history were contemporaries of Hull and even had a chance to play against him?

It is nice for you that Provost has some proven success slowing Hull down but why do you have to try to turn it into something it isn't?