Jim Robson Division 2nd Round - Halifax Citadels vs. Philadelphia Flyers

[Hawkey Town 18]

Halifax Citadels

GM: Stoneberg
Coach: Pat Burns
Captian: Armstrong
Alternate Captains: Smith, St. Louis

Roster
Roy Conacher - Marcel Dionne - Wayne Cashman
Alf Smith (A) - Bernie Morris - Martin St. Louis (A)
Bruce Stuart - Edgar Laprade - George Armstrong (C)
Rick Nash - Pete Mahovlich - Mario Tremblay

Ching Johnson - Eddie Shore
Allan Stanley - Terry Harper
Frank Patrick - Kimmo Timonen

Terry Sawchuk
Alec Connell

Spares: Reggie Fleming - F/D, Jack Portland - D, Jaroslav Jirik - W, Art Chapman - C

1st PP Unit
Conacher - Dionne - Smith
Patrick - Shore

2nd PP Unit
Nash - Morris - St. Louis
Stanley - Timonen

PK Forwards
Laprade - Armstrong
Mahovlich - St. Louis

PK Defensemen
Johnson - Harper
Stanley - Shore

VS.

Philadelphia Flyers
Coach: Jack Adams
Captain: Johnny Bucyk
Assistant Captains: Jim Schoenfeld, Larry Aurie

Bobby Hull-Vladimir Petrov-Theo Fleury
Johnny Bucyk-Jean Ratelle-Dany Heatley
John Madden-Don Luce-Larry Aurie
Al Secord-Troy Murray-Jimmy Ward
Lynn Patrick, Ken Linseman, Tom Anderson

Borje Salming-Mike Grant
Hod Stuart-Jim Schoenfeld
Gary Bergman-Glen Harmon
Miroslav Dvorak, Tom Anderson

Glenn Hall
Mikka Kiprusoff

PP1
Dany Heatley-Vladimir Petrov-Theo Fleury
Borje Salming-Bobby Hull

PP2
Johnny Bucyk-Jean Ratelle-Larry Aurie
Hod Stuart-Glen Harmon

PK1
Don Luce-John Madden
Hod Stuart-Mike Grant

PK2
Troy Murray-Larry Aurie
Borje Salming-Mike Grant

PK3
Don Luce-John Madden
Gary Bergman-Glen Harmon​

Click to read more...

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Best of luck, Stoneberg. I know you aren't around too often, but hopefully you can chime in with some comments. At first glance, this is going to be a battle of my advantage at forward against your advantage at defensemen, with both units being backstopped by elite goaltenders.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

First Lines

Hull: 107.1
Petrov: 85.65
Fleury: 82.3

R. Conacher: 88.8 (85.4 when you make Sturminator's adjustment to the sketchy assist recording season)
Dionne: 103.2
Cashman: 65

Philadelphia total: 275.05
Halifax total: 253.6

In the playoffs, some type of downward adjustment should be made for Dionne. Typically in the ATD, he is not the centerpiece forward of the team. He either has an elite winger flanking him, or he is made the #2 center where the pressure is not as great on him. Neither is the case here. What would be a realistic downgrade? The decline from his regular season to postseason production in real life (30%) would be too much IMO. What about a number like 94 or 95?

From a chemistry perspective, both lines bring all the necessary components, but do it in a different way. Physically, Cashman was ultra-tough, and his two linemates are about average. Philadelphia's line has three guys that had some grit and toughness, but weren't close to Cashman. Defensively, I think Halifax's first line is lacking. I see Cashman as a guy that would hustle back defensively, but that's about it. Petrov and Fleury were known as small plus defensive players in their careers. Neither line will be great defensively, but Philadelphia's should be better.

Overall, Philadelphia has an advantage in first lines. They are better offensively (especially when making an adjustment for Dionne's playoff struggles), and are slightly better defensively as well.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

2nd Lines

Bucyk: 86.3
Ratelle: 88.5
Heatley: 81.5

Smith: 69.4
Morris: 83.5
St. Louis: 92.9

Philadelphia total: 256.3
Halifax total: 245.8

Calculating the numbers for Smith and Morris is tough. For Smith, he is the glue guy of the line, so I took the VsX of the two glue guys selected nearest to him in the draft (Dean Prentice & Steve Shutt). It comes out to 69.4, which is probably about right for him. It's slightly above Cashman, and considering Smith was pretty much the Cashman of the Silver Seven, it's close enough.

Using the same tactic to calculate Morris's scores is hard because he was selected late enough to the point where a number of third line centers were being selected around him. The closest guys to him that were essentially all-offense centers were Sundin, LaFontaine, and Sedin, which come out to 80.93. Since I think Morris is a little better than them, I gave him a score of 83.5.

You can dock Bucyk whatever amount you see fit, but Smith also played on a dynasty team with a lot of talent around him, so after adjustments I think Philadelphia still has an advantage offensively among second liners.

In terms of toughness, they're about the same. Two very tough left wingers, and pretty soft otherwise on both lines. Defensively, they're probably about equal. Morris and Heatley are both non-factors, and Ratelle/Bucyk and St. Louis/Smith were decent two-way players.

Philadelphia's group has the advantage offensively, and they're pretty much even in terms of toughness and defensive play. Halifax's group is a little playmaking-slanted and could use a little more goalscoring, but isn't a huge problem.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

3rd Lines

Madden and Stuart are effective in different ways. Any statistical comparison between them is pretty much impossible. Ideally, I think Stuart is more suited to 4th line duty in a 28 team draft. He brings some okay offense and toughness, but as far as I know doesn't really bring anything defensively. Especially next to a pair like Laprade and Armstrong, who are 2/3 of a good two-way shutdown unit, I don't think he fits. I'll take Madden over him due to vastly superior defense, and a better fit for his line.

Luce and Laprade are pretty similar players. Both physical two-way players, but Luce was much bigger (6'2" to 5'8"), even when you consider era. Here's a look at their best adjusted points seasons:

Luce: 66, 62, 61, 55, 54, 52, 39 (389)
Laprade: 69, 58, 51, 49, 47, 45, 31 (350)

A comparison of ES scoring would be the best, but we only have the numbers for the last 3 seasons of Laprade's career when he was a non-factor offensively. Even if Laprade received almost no PP time like Luce, Luce still comes out on top. Looking at the Rangers' rosters in Laprade's time there, I would guess he did play some PP. Luce is the better player.

Aurie and Armstrong are both pretty similar as well. Both were very physical and strong defensively, but Armstrong was much bigger (6'1" to 5'6"). Aurie's VsX is 72.7 (he's on the Flyers' PP here, but not the first unit where he probably played nearly the whole thing like in Detroit so I guess knock him down a point or two), and is clearly better offensively than Armstrong. Even though Armstrong was taken 38 picks earlier, I'm not really convinced he's better than Aurie. He's a better leader, and won a Retro Selke, but is his defensive play that much better than Aurie's to make up for a pretty big offensive gap? Physically, Armstrong is slightly better due to his size, but I don't think it's by much.

Philadelphia's line is better offensively (Luce over Laprade and Aurie over Armstrong) and defensively as well IMO. I think Armstrong and Aurie are about even, Luce is better than Laprade, and Madden a better third liner than Stuart. Halifax's group is bigger and more physical, but I don't think it's enough to give them an advantage.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

4th Lines

Secord is a prototypical 4th liner, Nash is more of a scorer being put on a fourth line here. He has a little grit, but not much. In a vacuum, Nash is clearly a better player. But for a fourth line role (considering the chemistry of each line), I think Secord is more effective.

Mahovlich and Murray are both strong two-way players. Mahovlich has a better peak (albeit with Guy Lafleur and playing minutes very different than he is here). They have similar PP usage (25% for Mahovlich; 24% for Murray) so a comparison of adjusted points should be fair. Mahovlich definitely has the advantage in that area. The Selke essentially didn't exist for Mahovlich's career, so it's hard to quantify their abilities defensively. Overall, Mahovlich is the better player.

Ward and Tremblay are pretty similar players. They're both physical and have some two-way play, with a little offense. However, I think Ward does each of them better. Ward's offense could pass as a second line glue guy considering his physicality and two-way play. Even when you consider Ward's production that probably came on the PP, he's still better offensively. Tremblay never broke a VsX of 60; Ward did it five times.

Fourth lines are probably about even. They bring about the same amount of grit and defensive play. Halifax has a slight advantage in offensive play, so that may give them a slight advantage.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Defensemen:

#1: Shore vs. Salming is a no contest, slam dunk win for Shore.
#2: Johnson vs. Stuart is a very close matchup, almost a toss-up depending upon what type of defenseman you want. Both were very physical and large for their era. In the Top Defensemen project, Stuart was ranked one spot ahead of Johnson. Might be the slightest of advantages to Philadelphia.
#3: Stanley vs. Grant is a close one. Both are strong #3s at this level. Going by the Top Defensemen project, Stanley was 59th and Grant 61st, so opinions will vary among voters. Probably the slightest of advantages to Halifax.
#4: Harper vs. Schoenfeld is pretty even. They played a similar style, and after re-examining the proper complete voting records, they're very similar.
AS
Harper: 6, 7, 9, 10, 13, 13, 15, 16, 17
Schoenfeld: 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

#5: F. Patrick vs. Bergman is a tough one. In terms of #5 defensemen, both guys are very good and could pass as #4s. Patrick's peak is definitely better, but it's really all he has. He played six real seasons, and was a star in his four full seasons in the PCHA, a two-time first team AS and one time second team. Bergman's AS record is: 8, 8, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15. If you value peak over longevity (which I usually do), you'd give a slight advantage to Patrick here, which I think is fair.
#6: Timonen vs. Harmon is a moderate advantage to Harmon. Timonen has one strong voting finish of 5th in AS voting, but only received token votes in other years. Harmon has two second team AS finishes in 1945 and 1949 (discount the one for the war), and finishes of 5, 7, and 10 on top of that.

#1: Halifax (very big advantage)
#2: Philadelphia(very small advantage or wash)
#3: Halifax(very small advantage or wash)
#4: Philadelphia(pretty big advantage)
#5: Halifax(slight advantage)
#6: Philadelphia(decent sized advantage)

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Goalies

There are two elite goalie squaring off in this matchup. They were picked just one spot apart in the draft, and are #4 (Hall) and #5 (Sawchuk) in the Goalies project. Here is how they stack up in AS and Hart voting:

AS
Hall: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2
Sawchuk: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2

Hart
Hall: 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 8
Sawchuk: 3, 4, 4, 4, 7

Both appear to be a pretty clear advantage to Hall. These are two of the best goalies of all time, but I think Hall gives Philadelphia a slight edge here. Backups are irrelevant with these two as far as I'm concerned.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I'll take Sawchuk with his head screwed on properly over Hall personally.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Terry Harper's actual All-Star record (min 2 votes)

63-64: 7th
66-67: 6th
67-68: 16th
69-70: 17th
72-73: 10th
73-74: 13th
74-75: 9th
75-76: 15th
77-78: 13th

Hockey-reference.com obviously has a lot of work to do before they can be trusted to have complete records.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

PP

Heatley: 81.5
Petrov: 85.65
Fleury: 82.3

Conacher: 85.4
Dionne: 103.2
Smith: 69.4

Philadelphia total: 249.45
Halifax total: 258

Alf Smith sticks out as a pretty big weak spot on a first unit ATD power play. Halifax has the advantage, but if you knock Dionne down because of his playoff struggles to 95, they're essentially even.

In terms of pointmen, Philadelphia holds a sizable advantage due to Bobby Hull. I'd take Salming over Patrick, and Hull over Shore. First units are an advantage to Philadelphia due to superior pointmen and essentially even forwards.

Bucyk: 86.3
Ratelle: 88.5
Aurie: 72.7

Nash: 63.5
Morris: 83.5
St. Louis: 92.9

Philadelphia total: 247.5
Halifax total: 239.9

Knock Bucyk down a bit as much as you want, probably leaves Philadelphia with a slight advantage at forward. At the point, Stuart is better than Stanley and Timonen is better than Harmon. They're probably about a wash.

Second PP units are very close to even. Philadelphia has a slight advantage at forward, and the defensemen are pretty even.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Terry Harper's actual All-Star record (min 2 votes)

63-64: 7th
66-67: 6th
67-68: 16th
69-70: 17th
72-73: 10th
73-74: 13th
74-75: 9th
75-76: 15th
77-78: 13th

Hockey-reference.com obviously has a lot of work to do before they can be trusted to have complete records.

Wow, they weren't even close. I'll edit the post in that case.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

PK

Madden and Luce are both legendary PKers, second and third highest usage post-1968 among all forwards, and the PKs they did it for were both extremely good. Laprade and Armstrong are good first unit guys, but Madden and Luce are elite here. Stuart and Johnson is pretty much a wash, and I think Schoenfeld is an upgrade over Harper. (The first PK unit in the OP for me should be Stuart-Schoenfeld on defense).

For the second units, Mahovlich>Murray and Aurie>St. Louis, overall pretty much even. Shore>Salming and Stanley>Grant. Halifax's advantage at defense gives them the superior second unit.

One note about Halifax's penalty kill is that three of the four defensemen on it had a propensity to take a lot of penalties. Shore, Johnson, and Harper all have multiple top 10 finishes in penalty minutes. So, it's likely that those pairings could be thrown off every once in awhile. In addition, for a group that will take a lot of penalties, the supporting forwards that will be killing penalties is not all that great.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

So, you should vote for Philadelphia because:

-Superior first, second, and third lines
-Slight advantage in an elite goaltending matchup
-Superior first and second PP units
-Superior first PK unit

-Halifax's biggest asset is their defensemen, and other than at #1 (Shore vs. Salming), they're very close to even. Stuart was one spot ahead of Johnson in the HOH Top Defenseman project, and Grant was two spots behind Stanley, making #2s and #3s pretty much a wash. Philadelphia has an advantage in #4 and 6, Halifax has an advantage at #5. Shore over Salming is not enough to overcome the big advantage that Philadelphia has at forward.
-Philadelphia has the necessary enforcers (Secord, Schoenfeld, and Stuart if necessary) to keep the physical Halifax defense from taking liberties with our forwards.
-Halifax will take a lot of penalties (especially their defense, with Shore, Johnson, and Harper all having multiple top 10 finishes in PIM), and Philadelphia's advantage at power play will come through.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Philadelphia Wins in 6 Games