Jim Robson Division 1st Round - Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Eskimos

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Philadelphia Flyers
Coach: Jack Adams
Captain: Johnny Bucyk
Assistant Captains: Jim Schoenfeld, Larry Aurie

Bobby Hull-Vladimir Petrov-Theo Fleury
Johnny Bucyk-Jean Ratelle-Dany Heatley
John Madden-Don Luce-Larry Aurie
Al Secord-Troy Murray-Jimmy Ward
Lynn Patrick, Ken Linseman, Tom Anderson

Borje Salming-Mike Grant
Hod Stuart-Jim Schoenfeld
Gary Bergman-Glen Harmon
Miroslav Dvorak, Tom Anderson

Glenn Hall
Mikka Kiprusoff

PP1
Dany Heatley-Vladimir Petrov-Theo Fleury
Borje Salming-Bobby Hull

PP2
Johnny Bucyk-Jean Ratelle-Larry Aurie
Hod Stuart-Glen Harmon

PK1
Don Luce-John Madden
Hod Stuart-Mike Grant

PK2
Troy Murray-Larry Aurie
Borje Salming-Mike Grant

PK3
Don Luce-John Madden
Gary Bergman-Glen Harmon

VS.

Edmonton Eskimos

Coach : Jacques Lemaire
Assistant coach: Pete Muldoon

Captain - Lanny McDonald
Alt : Adam Foote, Woody Dumart

Woody Dumart --- Stan Mikita --- Cam Neely
Vincent Damphousse --- Peter Stastny --- Lanny McDonald
Harry Watson --- Igor Larionov --- Marian Gaborik
George Mantha --- Pit Lepine --- Jerry Toppazzini

Ex - Glen Skov (C/LW), Billy Boucher (RW)

Bill Quackenbush --- Tim Horton
Si Griffis --- Adam Foote
Hamby Shore --- Gennady Tsygankov

Ex - Wade Redden (D)

Ed Belfour
John Vanbiesbrouck

PP1: Si Griffis - Bill Quackenbush - Peter Stastny - Stan Mikita - Lanny McDonald
PP2: Hamby Shore - Tim Horton - Marian Gaborik - Igor Larionov - Cam Neely

PK1: Bill Quackenbush - Tim Horton - Pit Lepine - Jerry Toppazzini
PK2: Gennady Tsygankov - Adam Foote - Stan Mikita - Woody Dumart
​

Click to read more...

 

[ResilientBeast]

Just some early thoughts, I think our top lines are comparable except Dumart > Fleury. Hull is the best goalscorer on either top line, but I think Mikita might be close to his equal as an all round offensive force. Petrov based on your bio kinda sounds like a poor mans Mikita but Mikita's list of individual accomplishments helps tip the scale. If you had someone besides Fleury on your top line it would be different but advantage me.

Neely <<< Hull
Mikita >>> Petrov
Dumart > Fleury

Then compairing our top pairings, as you said in the assassinations I win this matchup clearly having two possible number 1's on my top pairing. Both of which can handle playing on both special teams.

I'll add some more later, exam break is coming up so i should probably stop researching hockey.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Top-7 weighted VsX for Right Wings (1926-2012):

Rank | Player | Rank
1 | Gordie Howe | 127.2
2 | Jaromir Jagr | 114.6
3 | Maurice Richard | 105.7
4 | Guy Lafleur | 104.9
5 | Andy Bathgate | 104
6 | Charlie Conacher | 97.1
7 | Bill Cook | 96.6
8 | Mike Bossy | 94.4
9 | Teemu Selanne | 92.9
10 | Bernie Geoffrion | 91.4
11 | Mark Recchi | 88.6
12 | Brett Hull | 88.2
13 | Jari Kurri | 88.1
14 | Gordie Drillon | 88.1
15 | Martin St. Louis | 87.7
16 | Jarome Iginla | 87
17 | Pavel Bure | 86
18 | Bryan Hextall | 84.5
19 | Marian Hossa | 82.6
20 | Daniel Alfredsson | 82.6
21 | Theoren Fleury | 82.3
22 | Bill Mosienko* | 82.2
23 | Dany Heatley | 81.5
24 | Ziggy Palffy | 80.6
25 | Rod Gilbert | 80.2
26 | Lorne Carr* | 80.2
27 | Ken Hodge | 79.9
28 | Hooley Smith | 78.8
29 | Cecil Dillon | 78.4
30 | Alexander Mogilny | 78.1
31 | Bobby Bauer | 76.2
32 | Bobby Rousseau | 76
33 | Alex Kovalev | 75.8
34 | Lanny McDonald | 74.6
35 | Dit Clapper # | 74.1
36 | Rick Middleton | 74
37 | Milan Hejduk | 73.8
38 | Yvan Cournoyer | 73.6
39 | Tony Amonte | 73.3
40 | Tod Sloan | 72.8
41 | Larry Aurie | 72.7
42 | Peter Bondra | 72.5
43 | Eddie Wiseman | 72.1
44 | Steve Larmer | 72.1
45 | Glenn Anderson | 71.9
46 | Joe Mullen | 71.4
47 | Johnny Gagnon | 71
48 | Ed Litzenberger | 70.8
49 | Kenny Wharram | 70.6
50 | Dave Taylor | 70.4
51 | Dino Ciccarelli | 69.9
52 | Marian Gaborik | 69.9
53 | Ebbie Goodfellow # | 69.8
54 | Rene Robert | 69.4
55 | Todd Bertuzzi | 69.2
56 | Jimmy Ward | 69
57 | Mike Gartner | 68.5
58 | Ace Bailey | 68.1
59 | Owen Nolan | 66.9
60 | Claude Provost | 66.9
61 | Vic Stasiuk | 66.5
62 | Shane Doan | 66.3
63 | Glen Murray | 66.2
64 | Wilf Paiement | 65.4
65 | Johnny Peirson | 65.2
66 | Joe Carveth* | 65.2
67 | Petr Sykora | 65.1
68 | Grant Warwick* | 64.7
69 | Bill Guerin | 64.5
70 | Pat Verbeek | 64.3
71 | John McKenzie | 63.9
72 | Cam Neely | 63.8
73 | Jean Pronovost | 63.2

* wartime star

# spent time as defenseman

See results (1926-2013):

Rank | Player | Rank
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 155.1
2 | Gordie Howe | 126
3 | Phil Esposito | 123.4
4 | Mario Lemieux | 120.4
5 | Jaromir Jagr | 114.6
6 | Bobby Orr | 109.3
7 | Stan Mikita | 108.1
8 | Bobby Hull | 107.1
9 | Jean Beliveau | 105.9
10 | Maurice Richard | 105.7
11 | Guy Lafleur | 104.9
12 | Ted Lindsay | 104.8
13 | Bill Cowley | 103.5
14 | Marcel Dionne | 103.2
15 | Howie Morenz | 102.8
16 | Andy Bathgate | 101.2
17 | Joe Sakic | 97.9
18 | Charlie Conacher | 97.1
19 | Bill Cook | 96.6
20 | Alex Ovechkin | 96.2
21 | Doug Bentley | 96.2
22 | Frank Boucher | 95.4
23 | Elmer Lach | 95.4
24 | Max Bentley | 94.9
25 | Mike Bossy | 94.4
26 | Steve Yzerman | 93.5
27 | Bryan Trottier | 93.5
28 | Joe Thornton | 93.3
29 | Syl Apps Sr | 93
30 | Teemu Selanne | 92.9
31 | Toe Blake | 92.6
32 | Martin St. Louis | 92.5
33 | Sweeney Schriner | 91.9
34 | Peter Forsberg | 90.9
35 | Nels Stewart | 90.5
36 | Sidney Crosby | 90.5
37 | Adam Oates | 90.2
38 | Bernie Geoffrion | 90.2
39 | Busher Jackson | 90
40 | Marty Barry | 89.9
41 | Mark Messier | 89.5
42 | Roy Conacher | 88.8
43 | Mark Recchi | 88.6
44 | Norm Ullman | 88.6
45 | Jean Ratelle | 88.5
46 | Peter Stastny | 88.3
47 | Brett Hull | 88.2
48 | Jari Kurri | 88.1
49 | Gordie Drillon | 88.1
50 | Syd Howe | 87.9
51 | Sid Abel | 87.8
52 | Paul Coffey | 87.7
53 | Bobby Clarke | 87.6
54 | Ron Francis | 87.6
55 | Milt Schmidt | 87.5
56 | Jarome Iginla | 87
57 | Dickie Moore | 86
58 | Pavel Bure | 86
59 | Dale Hawerchuk | 85.9
60 | Henri Richard | 85.6
61 | Frank Mahovlich | 85.5
62 | Paul Kariya | 85.4
63 | Denis Savard | 85.4
64 | Eric Lindros | 85.4
65 | John Bucyk | 85.3
66 | Alex Delvecchio | 84.9
67 | Gilbert Perreault | 84.6
68 | Bryan Hextall | 84.5
69 | Luc Robitaille | 84.4
70 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 84.3
71 | Darryl Sittler | 84.1
72 | Markus Naslund | 83.6
73 | Paul Thompson | 83.2
74 | Aurel Joliat | 83.1
75 | Henrik Sedin | 82.8
76 | Marian Hossa | 82.6
77 | Clint Smith | 82.6
78 | Daniel Alfredsson | 82.6
79 | Mats Sundin | 82.3
80 | Doug Gilmour | 82.3
81 | Theoren Fleury | 82.3
82 | Pierre Turgeon | 82.3
83 | Bill Mosienko | 82.2
84 | John LeClair | 82.1
85 | Pavel Datsyuk | 82
86 | Mike Modano | 81.7
87 | Jeremy Roenick | 81.5
88 | Ted Kennedy | 81.5
89 | Dany Heatley | 81.5
90 | Lynn Patrick | 81.2
91 | Sergei Fedorov | 81
92 | Evgeni Malkin | 80.7
93 | Ziggy Palffy | 80.6
94 | Bernie Nicholls | 80.3
95 | Rod Gilbert | 80.2
96 | Lorne Carr | 80.2
97 | Ken Hodge | 79.9
98 | Cooney Weiland | 79.4
99 | Brendan Shanahan | 79.3
100 | Michel Goulet | 79.3
101 | Patrik Elias | 79.3
102 | Keith Tkachuk | 79.3
103 | Pat LaFontaine | 78.8
104 | Hooley Smith | 78.8
105 | Doug Weight | 78.6
106 | Cecil Dillon | 78.4
107 | Eric Staal | 78.4
108 | Brad Richards | 78.4
109 | Alexander Mogilny | 78.1
110 | Phil Watson | 78.1
111 | Alexei Yashin | 77.6
112 | Daniel Sedin | 77.3
113 | Bernie Federko | 77.3
114 | Vincent Lecavalier | 77.2
115 | Henrik Zetterberg | 76.7
116 | Bun Cook | 76.6
117 | Bert Olmstead | 76.3
118 | Bobby Bauer | 76.2
119 | Joe Primeau | 76
120 | Bobby Rousseau | 76
121 | Alex Kovalev | 75.8
122 | Red Kelly | 75.7
123 | Herbie Lewis | 75.6
124 | Jacques Lemaire | 75.5
125 | Raymond Bourque | 75.3
126 | Jason Spezza | 75.2
127 | Pavol Demitra | 75.2
128 | Johnny Gottselig | 75
129 | Phil Goyette | 74.9
130 | Lanny McDonald | 74.6
131 | Denis Potvin | 74.3
132 | Vincent Damphousse | 74.2
133 | Bill Thoms | 74.2
134 | Brian Leetch | 74.1
135 | Dit Clapper | 74.1
136 | Rick Middleton | 74
137 | Marc Savard | 73.9
138 | Milan Hejduk | 73.8
139 | Don McKenney | 73.8
140 | Yvan Cournoyer | 73.6
141 | Woody Dumart | 73.5
142 | Tony Amonte | 73.3
143 | Neil Colville | 73.2
144 | Dave Keon | 73.2
145 | Gaye Stewart | 73.1
146 | Ray Whitney | 73
147 | Rod Brind'Amour | 72.8
148 | Larry Aurie | 72.7
149 | Peter Bondra | 72.5
150 | Alex Tanguay | 72.5
151 | Herb Cain | 72.2
152 | Eddie Wiseman | 72.1
153 | Steve Larmer | 72.1
154 | Glenn Anderson | 71.9
155 | Kent Nilsson | 71.7
156 | Dennis Maruk | 71.7
157 | Mike Ribeiro | 71.7
158 | Rick MacLeish | 71.6
159 | Tod Sloan | 71.5
160 | Ryan Getzlaf | 71.5
161 | Joe Mullen | 71.4
162 | Buddy O'Connor | 71.3
163 | Patrick Marleau | 71
164 | Johnny Gagnon | 71
165 | Steve Shutt | 70.8
166 | Al MacInnis | 70.6
167 | Kenny Wharram | 70.6
168 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 70.5
169 | Dave Taylor | 70.4
170 | Pete Mahovlich | 70.3
171 | Rick Martin | 70.2
172 | Anze Kopitar | 69.9
173 | Dino Ciccarelli | 69.9
174 | Marian Gaborik | 69.9
175 | Ebbie Goodfellow | 69.8
176 | Nicklas Lidstrom | 69.7
177 | Billy Taylor | 69.5
178 | Rene Robert | 69.4
179 | Dave Andreychuk | 69.4
180 | Baldy Northcott | 69.3
181 | Todd Bertuzzi | 69.2
182 | Paul Ronty | 69.1
183 | Bobby Smith | 69.1
184 | Jimmy Ward | 69
185 | Gus Bodnar | 68.7
186 | Sid Smith | 68.6
187 | Bill Barber | 68.6
188 | Miroslav Satan | 68.6
189 | Olli Jokinen | 68.5
190 | Mike Gartner | 68.5
191 | Ed Litzenberger | 68.5
192 | Robert Lang | 68.3
193 | Scott Gomez | 68.1
194 | Ace Bailey | 68.1
195 | Steve Sullivan | 68
196 | Martin Straka | 68
197 | Pit Martin | 67.9
198 | Craig Janney | 67.9
199 | Kevin Stevens | 67.8
200 | Camille Henry | 67.4
201 | Jason Allison | 67.2
202 | Dean Prentice | 67.1
203 | Brian Propp | 67
204 | Garry Unger | 67
205 | Syl Apps | 66.9
206 | Owen Nolan | 66.9
207 | Claude Provost | 66.9
208 | Butch Goring | 66.7
209 | Art Jackson | 66.7
210 | Rick Nash | 66.6
211 | Peter McNab | 66.5
212 | Petr Nedved | 66.4
213 | Shane Doan | 66.3
214 | Fred Stanfield | 66.2
215 | Glen Murray | 66.2
216 | Pierre Larouche | 66.1
217 | Art Chapman | 66
218 | Alex Zhamnov | 65.9
219 | Patrick Kane | 65.7
220 | Charlie Simmer | 65.5
221 | Wilf Paiement | 65.4
222 | Dennis Hull | 65.2
223 | Joe Carveth | 65.2
224 | Murray Oliver | 65.1
225 | Petr Sykora | 65.1
226 | Barry Pederson | 65
227 | Kirk Muller | 65
228 | Wayne Cashman | 65
229 | Walt Tkaczuk | 64.9
230 | Red Berenson | 64.9
231 | Brian Bellows | 64.9
232 | Vic Stasiuk | 64.8
233 | Phil Housley | 64.8
234 | Johnny Peirson | 64.7
235 | Thomas Vanek | 64.7
236 | Cory Stillman | 64.7
237 | Grant Warwick | 64.7
238 | Corey Perry | 64.7
239 | Neal Broten | 64.5
240 | Bill Guerin | 64.5
241 | Vaclav Prospal | 64.5
242 | Greg Adams | 64.5
243 | Bill Hay | 64.3
244 | Zach Parise | 64.3
245 | Pat Verbeek | 64.3
246 | Tom Lysiak | 64
247 | John McKenzie | 63.9
248 | Cam Neely | 63.8
249 | Michael Nylander | 63.7
250 | Eddie Shore | 63.7

Note that I haven't calculated a minimum score of 50 for each year.

Just some stuff I'll be adding to help fuel our debate, Neely's VsX suffers hard because of his short career, but my team is full of playoff performers who will step it up.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Looking forward to a good debate, I'll try to get working on some comparisons in the next few days. At first glance, I think Philadelphia's offensive advantage on the wings, superior bottom two defensive pairings, goaltending, and PPs will be big.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Looking forward to a good debate, I'll try to get working on some comparisons in the next few days. At first glance, I think Philadelphia's offensive advantage on the wings, superior bottom two defensive pairings, goaltending, and PPs will be big.

Contrasted with my vastly superior top pairing, far better center depth (if not the best in the whole draft), superior penalty killing, and the gap in goaltenders isn't big enough to be a real issue.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Just some early thoughts, I think our top lines are comparable except Dumart > Fleury. Hull is the best goalscorer on either top line, but I think Mikita might be close to his equal as an all round offensive force. Petrov based on your bio kinda sounds like a poor mans Mikita but Mikita's list of individual accomplishments helps tip the scale. If you had someone besides Fleury on your top line it would be different but advantage me.

Neely <<< Hull
Mikita >>> Petrov
Dumart > Fleury

Then compairing our top pairings, as you said in the assassinations I win this matchup clearly having two possible number 1's on my top pairing. Both of which can handle playing on both special teams.

I'll add some more later, exam break is coming up so i should probably stop researching hockey.

Disagree. If you want to compare Mikita and Hull (they are clearly the offensive drivers of their lines), then they are more or less even. That leaves Petrov and Fleury against Dumart and Neely. From an offensive standpoint, Petrov is easily better than Dumart and Neely.

Player|Soviet Finishes|International PPG|Draft Position
Kharlamov|1, 2, 3, 5, 5, 7|1.458 in 131|34
Petrov|1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10|1.352 in 128|159
Mikhailov|2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5|1.434 in 129|72

Domestically, Petrov's finishes are pretty clearly the best of his linemates. Internationally, his linemates are better. But is positional rarity, international play, and in Mikhailov's case intangibles (though Petrov was known as a tough player) enough to justify a 125 and 87 pick gap between the two and Petrov? No way, when you consider his superiority in domestic finishes. The big criticism of Petrov was his MVP finishes in the Soviet league, but after researching it, it appears those were influenced by international play, and were not Soviet League MVP votes.

Dumart was a top three point producer on his team just five times in his career (leading only once). In terms of his offense, he's a second liner in quality. Same deal with Neely. Both bring other things to the table, which is why people put them on first lines. But when both of them are on a first line, the offense from the wings will be lacking. In terms of VsX, it would be something like this:

Petrov: 85.65(average of the two centers directly before and after him in the Centers project, Savard and Hawerchuk)
Fleury: 82.3
Neely: 63.8
Dumart : 73.5

You would have to give Dumart a pretty decent bump for an O6 adjustment to get him to Fleury's level. Offensively, the Philadelphia group is better.

Edmonton certainly makes up ground in the toughness area and with two-way play from Mikita and Dumart. But is it enough to offset the above offensive advantage? All three Philadelphia forwards had some physicality themselves.

In terms of chemistry, the Philadelphia line is built around the one that was most successful with Bobby Hull. He liked playing with Phil Esposito and Chico Maki. Petrov is similar to Esposito in the sense that he's a physical, goal-scoring center that is an underrated playmaker (better than Kharlamov and Mikhailov). Fleury and Maki were both speedy, gritty complementary forwards. It also is built around the formula of the Kharlamov-Petrov-Mikhailov line. Kharlamov, like Hull, was the primary puck-carrier of the line through the neutral zone, so Petrov is used to playing with a puck-dominant winger. Mikhailov and Fleury were both goal-scorers with grit to them.

One of Mikita's biggest advantages is that he's supposed to be very easy to build around. However, I'm not sure this line will maximize his abilities. The Scooter line was built around speed, with Mohns and Wharram both being very fast skaters. Neither Dumart or Neely is a fast skater, with both probably being average in the ATD.

Philadelphia's line has the advantage offensively and in terms of chemistry, Edmonton has an advantage in two-way play and physicality. I think the offensive gap is too big to overcome with two-way play and some toughness.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Second Lines

7 year VsX

Bucyk: 86.3
Ratelle: 88.5
Heatley: 81.5
Damphousse: 74.2
Stastny: 88.3
McDonald: 74.6

Philadelphia: 256.3
Edmonton: 237.1

Defensively, they probably come out as about even. Bucyk would hustle on the backcheck, but wasn't known for any great defensive prowess. Ratelle was at least a decent two-way player. Damphousse was a good two-way player, and I have Stastny as average in an ATD context. His defensive resume seems to stem from his later years when his offense tapered off, leaving him somewhere in the middle of average. Both lines are adequate in the toughness department with Bucyk and McDonald. Both lines seem to work chemistry-wise as well.

The offensive advantage held by the Philadelphia group gives them the overall advantage due to them being essentially equal elsewhere.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Second Lines

7 year VsX

Bucyk: 86.3
Ratelle: 88.5
Heatley: 81.5
Damphousse: 74.2
Stastny: 88.3
McDonald: 74.6

Philadelphia: 256.3
Edmonton: 237.1

Defensively, they probably come out as about even. Bucyk would hustle on the backcheck, but wasn't known for any great defensive prowess. Ratelle was at least a decent two-way player. Damphousse was a good two-way player, and I have Stastny as average in an ATD context. His defensive resume seems to stem from his later years when his offense tapered off, leaving him somewhere in the middle of average. Both lines are adequate in the toughness department with Bucyk and McDonald. Both lines seem to work chemistry-wise as well.

The offensive advantage held by the Philadelphia group gives them the overall advantage due to them being essentially equal elsewhere.

Bucyk is a perfect example of a player who breaks this system of only looking at a player's best 7 years from a statistical standpoint.

The main reason is because Bucyk quite clearly wasn't the catalyst for his offensive peak - that was Bobby Orr. And to a lesser extent Phil Esposito on the PP. So his "true" 7 year value is going to be much less than his numbers show. Bucyk is a lot like Francis, actually, in that his stats went way up in his 30s when he started playing with generational talents.

The other reason is that Bucyk has a lot of value outside his best 7 years.

On the other hand, Peter Stastny apparently played in the most defensive division in the 80s, when there actually was a big difference between the divisions. That doesn't make Stastny anything special defensively, of course, but it means he would have had a tougher time scoring against the likes of Montreal and Boston than most players would.

I really, really hate what seems to be a new trend of just adding up Vs-X 7 scores as if it's a good proxy for the total offensive output of the line.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Bucyk is a perfect example of a player who breaks this system of only looking at a player's best 7 years from a statistical standpoint.

The main reason is because Bucyk quite clearly wasn't the catalyst for his offensive peak - that was Bobby Orr. And to a lesser extent Phil Esposito on the PP. So his "true" 7 year value is going to be much less than his numbers show. Bucyk is a lot like Francis, actually, in that his stats went way up in his 30s when he started playing with generational talents.

The other reason is that Bucyk has a lot of value outside his best 7 years.

How big of a downgrade would you suggest for Bucyk? He's at 86.3 right now. Bucyk certainly benefited from the arrival of Bobby Orr, but is it enough to bridge that VsX gap (even when you consider the Stastny thing, see below)? I don't think so.

On the other hand, Peter Stastny apparently played in the most defensive division in the 80s, when there actually was a big difference between the divisions. That doesn't make Stastny anything special defensively, of course, but it means he would have had a tougher time scoring against the likes of Montreal and Boston than most players would.

I really, really hate what seems to be a new trend of just adding up Vs-X 7 scores as if it's a good proxy for the total offensive output of the line.

It's true Stastny played in a tough division, but do we think his VsX scores deserve a boost? Taking an average of the two centers above him and two below him in the centers project, his VsX(88.3) is slightly above the average of 87.8. Seems like it's about right. Even if you think he deserves that boost, is it enough to bridge the otherwise clear offensive gap? I don't think so.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

How big of a downgrade would you suggest for Bucyk? He's at 86.3 right now. Bucyk certainly benefited from the arrival of Bobby Orr, but is it enough to bridge that VsX gap (even when you consider the Stastny thing, see below)? I don't think so.



It's true Stastny played in a tough division, but do we think his VsX scores deserve a boost? Taking an average of the two centers above him and two below him in the centers project, his VsX(88.3) is slightly above the average of 87.8. Seems like it's about right. Even if you think he deserves that boost, is it enough to bridge the otherwise clear offensive gap? I don't think so.

I think Stastny has a moderate but clear offensive advantage over Ratelle, all things considered (teammates, style of play/division, awards recognition, playoffs).

Your second line wingers are definitely quite a bit better offensively than his, it's hard to see even Bobby Orr causing a 10+ gap in VsX at this point. If you want to be more precise, you could try to do what I did for Francis in the centers project (with regards to Jagr). Assume that Bucyk's "true value" in his Orr years is the same as his best years without Orr.

 

[BraveCanadian]

It's true Stastny played in a tough division, but do we think his VsX scores deserve a boost? Taking an average of the two centers above him and two below him in the centers project, his VsX(88.3) is slightly above the average of 87.8. Seems like it's about right. Even if you think he deserves that boost, is it enough to bridge the otherwise clear offensive gap? I don't think so.

The perception generally was that the Adams was the "defensive" division for what that was worth in the 80s. Pretty sure the numbers would bear that out.

Particularly the Canadiens and the Bruins almost perennially and Buffalo for the early to mid-80s too. Occasionally Quebec was above average.

This held the players back a little offensively on those teams and made it tougher on offensive players if you were Nordique or especially if you were a Whaler.

What a fair adjustment would be for those players I have no idea.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The perception generally was that the Adams was the "defensive" division for what that was worth in the 80s. Pretty sure the numbers would bear that out.

Particularly the Canadiens and the Bruins almost perennially and Buffalo for the early to mid-80s too. Occasionally Quebec was above average.

This held the players back a little offensively on those teams and made it tougher on offensive players if you were Nordique or especially if you were a Whaler.

What a fair adjustment would be for those players I have no idea.

I also have no idea what a fair adjustment would be, either.

At some point, someone who enjoys playing with numbers better than I do could do a statistical comparison between the divisions.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

3rd Lines

These two lines are built for very different purposes. The Edmonton line is built as a third scoring line, and Philadelphia's is built as a shutdown line. The chemistry works for each line considering its respective purpose. Edmonton has the grinder-passer-shooter, and Philadelphia's line is based around the Ramsay-Luce-Gare formula. Madden is a very strong defensive winger (though not near the ES scorer than Ramsay was) and Aurie is an upgrade on Gare; better offensively, defensively, and similarly tough.

In a vacuum, Watson is a better player than Madden. Tougher and better offensively, but Madden has a significant advantage in defensive play. Similarly, Larionov is a better player than Luce due to a significantly better offensive resume (Larionov is playing the PP for Edmonton). Luce is tougher and much better defensively, however. I'd say Aurie is a better player than Gaborik. His 7 year VsX (since both are playing the PP here) is 72.7 to Gaborik's 69.9. In addition, Aurie is significantly better defensively and is much more physical.

Edmonton has the superior third line offensively, Philadelphia's is better defensively and is more physical. In a vacuum, the Edmonton line is better because they're pretty much a third scoring line (with Larionov providing some two-way play). But for the purposes that I wanted my line to serve, I'm very happy with their makeup.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

4th Lines

Secord and Mantha are both solid 4th liners here. Mantha brings speed and two-way play, Secord physicality and fighting ability. Neither was a real factor offensively in their careers. Probably equally effective as 4th liners, but in different ways.

Lepine is a better player than Murray. He's a very strong 4th liner here. Elite defensively, and not bad offensively(though I'm not sure how much time he spent on the PP).

Ward is a better player than Toppazzini. Jerry is better defensively, but Ward has a pretty big advantage offensively. Both are somewhat physical players.

Overall, I'd say the 4th line are pretty much even. The gap between Lepine and Murray is about the same as Toppazzini and Ward. Edmonton's may be slightly better due to Lepine.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Sorry I'll have some comments tomorrow to counter some of yours, final exams have arrived and I'm not ready lol

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Since we've decided to take different philosophies about structuring our pairings (you stacked your top pairing, I have my #1 and #2 on different lines), let's look at them one by one to get a better read on the top two pairings, and then analyze the bottom pairings.

#1s: Horton vs. Salming is an advantage to Horton. Salming is a better offensive defenseman, but Horton's stronger voting record gives him the advantage. Horton was 17th in the defenseman project, and Salming 22nd.
#2s: Quackenbush vs. Stewart is an advantage to Quackenbush. Quackenbush was 26th in the defenseman project, and Stuart was 36th.
#3s: Griffis vs. Grant is an advantage to Grant in a battle of the early era stars. From what I know, Griffis was never really in the conversation for the best of his era. He did play in a more advanced level, but in his time in the PCHA he was never once named to an all star team. He did start his PCHA career at 28, which is a bit late, but he should have still had a prime year or two left. Maybe he wasn't the same player after he took that break. Did he ever display elite play that makes him a worthy #3? Grant was pretty universally regarded as the best defenseman of his era, one of the only ones that could bring people to the seats just to see him play.
#4s: Foote vs. Schoenfeld is an advantage to Schoenfeld. Both play a similar style, but Schoenfeld's voting record is significantly better.

Foote: 11, 14, 20, 20
Schoenfeld: 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

#5s: Shore vs. Bergman is an advantage to Bergman. It isn't an easy comparison to make considering the era, but look at Bergman's voting record, and it just doesn't seem likely that Shore could match something like this:

Bergman: 8, 8, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15

#6s: Harmon vs. Tsygankov is tough to call. Tsygankov has two Soviet second team all stars in 1971 and 1973, Harmon has two second team all stars in the NHL in 1949 and 1945. Harmon has more supporting votes after that, and Tsygankov likely would but we don't have anything beyond the first and second teams. The war year and one of Tsygankov's is about a wash, but the 1949 season is better than Tsygankov's other season. I think it's a slight advantage to Harmon.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Goaltending

I think Glenn Hall is the third best goalie of all time. There is no question he's a superior goalie to Belfour, and it's a decent sized gap. Though it's not a perfect comparison, to put in perspective the difference, Hall has as many first and second team AS finishes (11) as Belfour has top ten finishes.

This is going to be a big advantage to Philadelphia, and one of the most important matchups in the series.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

PP

Heatley: 81.5
Petrov: 85.65 (proxy)
Fleury: 82.3

Total: 249.45

Stastny: 88.3
Mikita: 108.1
MacDonald: 74.6

Total: 271

Forwards on the first unit are an advantage to Edmonton, due to Mikita and stacking the line with Stastny on the wing. It's definitely easier to play a center at wing on the power play where they're basically stationary in the offensive zone, so I wouldn't knock Stastny's offense as result.

The defensemen are an advantage to Philadelphia. Salming has six top seven finishes in points among defensemen. I don't know what Griffis' finishes are, but I'm 99% sure they're not that good. Hull is a significantly bigger threat offensively than Quackenbush. His cannon from the point will be a huge asset on the power play. It's hard to do a straight comparison because of Griffis' league difference and Hull being a forward, but you can think about it this way: The difference in VsX of the forwards is 8.64%. Just based on the logic and eye test, I think it's safe to say the Philadelphia pointmen are more than 8.64% better than the Edmonton ones. So, I think the Philadelphia PP is slightly better because of the advantage in pointmen. How big the advantage is is how you perceive the difference between defensemen compared to forwards.

Since you stacked your first PP unit and took a number of two-way top six wingers, your PPs suffers.

Bucyk: 86.3
Ratelle: 88.5
Aurie: 72.7

Total: 247.5

Gaborik: 69.9
Larionov: 83.85 (average of Savard & Sundin, I think that's being generous to him)
Neely: 63.8

Total: 217.55

Forwards are definite advantage to Philadelphia. In terms of pointmen, Stuart>Shore and Horton>Harmon. They're probably around a wash. Due to an advantage forward, Philadelphia has the superior second unit.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Why to Vote for Philadelphia:

-Superior First Line
-Superior Second Line
-Superior #3, 4, 5, 6 defensemen
-Vastly superior goaltending (Hall vs. Belfour)
-Superior first and second PP units

 

[ResilientBeast]

Why Edmonton Deserves your Attention

-Superior Two Way Play Amongst the top 2 Lines
-Better Bottom 6
-Vastly Better Top Pairing
-Better Penalty Kill
-Coach That Meshes Well
-Playoff Warriors in Net
-Good Stylistically D Pairings

 

[MadArcand]

-Superior First Line

How? With Petrov as 1st line center?

 

[BillyShoe1721]

How? With Petrov as 1st line center?

Going by ResilientBeast's logic (compare drivers of the offense), Hull and Mikita are essentially a wash in terms of offensive ability. That leaves Petrov and Fleury vs. Dumart and Neely. From above:

Petrov: 85.65(average of the two centers directly before and after him in the Centers project, Savard and Hawerchuk)
Fleury: 82.3
Neely: 63.8
Dumart : 73.5

Flyers combo: 167.95
Edmonton combo: 137.3

Is that gap bridged by Edmonton's advantage in two-way play? I said no, and it appeared that nobody really disagreed. In terms of offense, Dumart and Neely are both suited, ideally, to second line duty.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Considering that every opposing team matched their best checkers against Hull, I think it's unlikely that Mikita was quite as good offensively, despite what the stats say

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

PHILADELPHIA WINS in GAME 5 OT

 

[ResilientBeast]

Thanks for a good first ATD Billy, sorry I had a busy week or I might have been able to extend the series a little longer. Good luck in the next round.

I will keep following the draft and voting of course and see some of you in MLD