Jim Coleman Conference Semi-Finals - New Jersey Swamp Devils (1) vs Milwaukee Admirals (4)

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BEST OF SEVEN FORMAT


NJ Swamp Devils (1 Seed)


Coach: Dick Irvin

Sweeney Schriner - Joe Sakic (A) - Bill Cook
Sid Abel (C) <-> Joe Malone - Helmuts Balderis
Johnny Gottselig - Jonathan Toews - Marian Hossa
Rusty Crawford - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Rene Robert
Bernie Morris, Bruce Stuart

Ching Johnson - Doug Harvey (A)
Babe Siebert - Bill Gadsby
Mark Giordano - Red Dutton
Flash Hollett

Johnny Bower
Tony Esposito

One goal down: Schriner - Sakic - Cook - Harvey - Gadsby. Extra skater: Malone

PP1: Sweeney Schriner - Joe Malone - Bill Cook - Joe Sakic - Doug Harvey
PP2: Sid Abel - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Helmuts Balderis - Rene Robert - Bill Gadsby

PK1: Jonathan Toews - Johnny Gottselig - Ching Johnson - Doug Harvey
PK2: Vyacheslav Starshinov - Marian Hossa - Babe Siebert - Red Dutton
PK spares: Rusty Crawford, Bill Gadsby


VS

Milwaukee Admirals (4 Seed)​

Milwaukee Admirals (4 Seed)

Coach Pete Green
Assistant Coach - Roger "Captain Video" Neilson

Aurel Joliat - Howie Morenz - Martin St. Louis
Jere Lehtinen - Joe Thornton - Teemu Selanne
Rick Martin - Ron Francis (A) - Alf Smith
Craig Ramsay - Don Luce - Blake Wheeler
Blair Russel

Moose Johnson - Red Kelly (C)
Lionel Conacher - Jan Suchy
Harvey Pulford (A) - Red Horner
Sergei Gonchar

Glenn Hall
Ed Giacomin

PK1: Ramsay - Luce - Conacher - Kelly
PK2: Lehtinen - Francis - Johnson - Pulford

PP1: Joliat - Morenz - St. Louis - Johnson - Selanne*
PP2: Martin - Thornton - Francis - Kelly - Suchy
PP2b: (when 7 dmen dressed): Kelly - Gonchar

* Selanne played the point on the powerplay.

Captaincy: Kelly is listened to in the locker room as he was a leader of two dynasties; Francis handles the refs as he was a 12-year captain; Pulford tough talks the bench as he captained the Silver Seven dynasty.

When leading by 2 goals: Lehtinen - Francis - Smith
Or when leading late 3rd: Ramsay - Luce - Lehtinen
When trailing by 2 goals: Martin - Thornton - Selanne
Or when trailing by 2 goals: Martin - Francis - Wheeler

EXTRA NOTES:

1. Lehtinen & Selanne won 4 Olympic medals as wingers on the same line with an undrafted Habs pivot much less skilled than Thornton; Selanne is easily the most prolific Olympic scorer in hockey history on that very line with Lehtinen.
2. Red Horner is a HHOF-inducted defenseman PRAISED by multiple sources for his passing. He isn't just a fighter/goon. Think Sprague Cleghorn but with less extreme off the handle play. Horner is the 6th greatest Leaf defenseman ever on the top 100 all-time Leafs list.
3. Moose Johnson was better than Ching Johnson with the puck. Hockey history is clear on this.

Click to read more...

 

[VanIslander]

As well, if anyone mistakes Red Dutton for Red Horner, then shame on you.

 

[VanIslander]

Will the 4th greatest goalie (who also won the Conn Smythe on a lame-*** defensive team - and was the most frequent puck stopper not named Hasek) lose to the 19th greatest goalie?

I assume Tony O isn't starting.

The conference final is at stake.

 

[VanIslander]

Milwaukee has two of the most successful pp performers ever and arguably the greatest pk duo ever and a much more successful pk goalie.

And while the first two regular lines are competitive, the third line in a smaller draft (we ain't a 32-teamer) is clearly a Milwaukee advantage.

The other team had an earlier first round pick (Harvey!). Period. (Oh, the other team also has a GM with better social skills, which matters in hockey history, eh?)

I have little faith in humanity and less in ATD voting. I have never made an ATD final. That's okay. I have won four MLD titles (though that POPULARITY vote may have been in effect - those who organize/administer drafts often get appreciation votes).

I would love someone to say: " F u but i vote for your team cuz it's better." It will happen to someone some day. That makes me smile.

The heart of the matter (where mosquitoes never reach) is that the ATD is essentially about the process of drafting not the votes thereafter. We learn and enjoy the process of picking.

Lament every 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th losing an opening round "playoff" series against every 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th team despite the NHL NEVER EVER having done that (in fact UPSETS ARE THE NORM in the NHL: the skills of playoff hockey is different than the regular season).

A new rule should be: everyone must vote for ONE upset in round 1 (1 & 2 ideally in the future) of the playoffs! The thought experiment: WHICH TEAM IS BETTER BUILT FOR THE SPEED, INTENSITY, EXPERIENCE AND CLUTCH PLAY OF THE PLAYOFFS? (The answer may not be the one with the 5th or 6th best guys on dynasty teams.)

That might generate regular season vs. playoff season commentary, clutch skills, experience, how important one particular guy was to a dynasty, etc.

An idea.

 

[Sturminator]

My questions for this series:

1. What sort of style is Milwaukee playing? Is this kitty-bar-the-door (i.e. one attack and then get back and defend the neutral zone) style hockey? I guess I could see that working...Milwaukee isn't really set up with the wings to foreckeck anyway, but it's just not entirely clear to me what style of hockey Milwaukee intends to play.

2. Will Sid Abel be effective checking Milwaukee's speedy right wings?

3. Does the leadership gap matter here? One team has a captain who barely wore the C in his real career, and the other has so much leadership they didn't bother giving Bill Cook a letter (which I disagree with, but whatever).

4. It's clear enough to me what role Milwaukee's 4th line will play, but much less so with New Jersey. What are the devils trying to get out of that 4th line? What is the matchup they're seeking?

 

[VanIslander]

Forecheck?

In what universe is Joliat, Lehtinen, Smith & Ramsey not going into the offensive early looking to cause turnovers?

And puckhounds at center Morenz, Francis and Luce are ready at mid ice.

There are only three better teams in this draft at forechecking. Maybe only two.

 

[VanIslander]

Leadership?

Kelly gets the C HERE because he was central to the Wings dynasty and then as important as Bower to the Leafs last dynasty. He has won ridiculously more than the others so when he talks one would expect him to be respected. Milwaukee's alternate captains are stellar experienced: one captained a dynasty and the other is Mr.Franchise for his dozen years of captaincy.

 

[Sturminator]

Forecheck?

In what universe is Joliat, Lehtinen, Smith & Ramsey not going into the offensive early looking to cause turnovers?

I'm under the impression that this is not really the way Pete Green's teams played. Forechecking didn't become a thing until well after his retirement as a coach.

I also think your 2nd line may be open to quick counterattacks if Lehtinen is diving in hard in the offensive zone, but it's your team.

 

[VanIslander]

Koivu's father said everyone watches Selanne but Lehtinen is the reason the line works (they won medals in 4 Olympics in a modern world of Canada, USA, Russia, Czech, Sweden).

"The work ethic, what he does, on the ice, the work he puts in for every game," Mikko said. "Then, when I had a chance to play with him, you realize how true it is and how much he actually works for the team."

His brother Saku played a long time with Lehtinen on the national team and said Lehtinen was the reason they got the puck.

I personally am VanIslander, my Vancouver Canucks drafted Michael Peca, then we traded him during his awesome rookie year for ****'n goal-scoring Mogilny and when Peca was up for - i think - his 2nd Selke, i was yapping over hot wings in a sports bar that my Peca will win but i strenuously said that mf-er guy from Finland in Dallas, Texas should win it, but he won't. Ten minutes later he did. And for just the 2nd time in my life i had to buy a full round of drinks to save face and burn my student loan (over $300 that night. Gawd.)

 

[VanIslander]

GL whatever.

 

[VanIslander]

My regular season vote predicted this 1 vs. 4 matchup. I just thought it in reverse seeding.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Johnny Bower has a much better playoff record than Glenn Hall

A. The basic stats

Bower: 74 GP, 35 W, 34 L, 0.924 save percentage, 2.47 GAA, led the playoffs in save percentage 3 consecutive years (1961, 1962, 1963)

Hall: 115 GP, 49 W, 65 L, 0.911 save percentage, 2.79 GAA, led the playoffs in save percentage 1 time (1961)

B. Career playoff goals above replacement for O6 HHOF goalies (1953 is the first year of the stat, which is a bit rough on Sawchuk but perfectly fair to Bower and Hall).

GAR is kind of like adjusted save percentage times number of games played. So if save percentage is analogous to points-per-game, GAR is analogous to total points.

Source = hockeygoalies.org

1. Jacques Plante 94.4 (in 112 GP)
2. Johnny Bower 64.9 (in 74 GP)
3. Glenn Hall 50.4 (in 115 GP)
4. Gump Worsley 35.0
5. Terry Sawchuk 15.2 (Sawchuk had fabulous results in 1954, 1955, and 1967, but was negative in most other years. His presumably stellar 1952 is sadly not included)

If Bower's regular season case rests largely on a per-game stat - 6 time NHL save percentage champion - his playoff record does not.

C. Bower regularly beat his backups/tandem partners in save percentage, so his gaudy results are NOT merely a results of team effects.

Yes, this is based on the regular season (there wouldn't be a big enough sample size in the playoffs - Bower was generally the man there, except in 1967, when he tandemed with a temporarily-great-again Sawchuk).

QPQ posted this in the HOH Top 200 project and it really helped sell me on Bower:

Would it be fair to say that Bower drew more statistical separation from his tandem partners than (Billy) Smith did? In his six times leading the league in save percentage, here is how it was split between Bower and the Leafs goaltender with the next highest GP:

	Bower
1960	.919 (66 games)	.889 (4 games)
1961	.922 (58 games)	.928 (7 games)
1964	.932 (51 games)	.894 (21 games)
1965	.924 (34 games)	.915 (36 games)
1966	.930 (35 games)	.903 (27 games)
1967	.925 (27 games)	.917 (28 games)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bower even nearly led the league for a 7th time in 1968, (.934 in 43 games), but tandem partner Bruce Gamble (.934 in 41 games) edged him out narrowly in the final game of the season (not that anyone knew about it at the time).

By comparison, Smith spent a decade usually within .003 of Melanson or Resch, and sometimes noticeably behind them.

I don't find Bower's regular season record to be problematic at all. Tandem goaltender at times, yes, but he could have a great season as a clear-cut #1. I think he definitely had trouble getting credit because of how great the Leafs were, and because bookkeeping for goaltenders was rubbish prior to 1984.

I butted heads with QPQ quite a few times in the project, but this is one area where I really felt I learned from him.

D. What does it mean?

Glenn Hall has the better regular season record than Bower, without a doubt. There is obviously something big to be said for playing all those games in a row at a high level - as a Devil's fan, I am a big fan of goalies who could do just that. I don't think we should ignore Hall's stellar regular season record in comparing them, even in the ATD playoffs. The regular season is a bigger sample size than the playoffs, after all.

But whatever gap VI might have in goal certainly narrows in the playoffs.

And for the minority of GMs who wish to prioritize looking at the NHL playoffs when discussing the ATD playoffs, well, I'm not going to be one to talk you out of it.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The biggest difference between these teams is NJ's advantage on the blueline.

A. NJ's #1 > Milwaukee's #1

I think Red Kelly is consistently in competition for best value pick of the first round, but he's no Doug Harvey. Need I saw more?

B. NJ's #2 >>>>>>> Milwaukee's #2

I see Bill Gadsby as a key pick for my team, the last of the ATD's "traditional #1s" to be selected. He would probably be a poor #1 in an 18 team draft, but here he's an elite #2.

Whereas #2 defenseman is a pretty big hole on Milwaukee. Conacher and Johnson are generally considered unspectacular #2s in a normal draft, and I think they are quite weak as #2s in an 18 team draft. I think this is Milwaukee's biggest weakness from a talent perspective.

Anyway, it's obvious Gadsby is more highly regarded by a lot, so again, not worth spending much time here.

C. NJ's #3 >> Milwaukee's #2!!!!

NJ's biggest advantage as a team is our "Big 3 on defense." Indeed, Ivan Johnson, NJ's 3rd best, is a noticeable step up from whomever of Moose Johnson or Lionel Conacher is Milwaukee's #2

This is what I want to focus on most

Argument 1: Ivan Johnson vs Lionel Conacher All Star records:

These men played at almost the same time. Here are their respective All-Star records from the people who watched them play. I'm including the GM-voted Teams for 1926-27 to 1929-30:

Ivan Johnson: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 6, ?
Lionel Conacher: 1, 4, 4, 4, 6* 8, 8

The ? indicates Johnson received votes from GM in 1929-30, but we don't have full rankings (see his profile for details.

* means based on Hart voting

To put it another way:

Ivan Johnson: 3x 1st Team All-Star, 3x 2nd Team All-Star
Lionel Conacher: 1x 1st Team All-Star, 3x 2nd Team All-Star

I don't think they are in the same league as players.

These are the guys we should be comparing Ivan Johnson with in terms of awards record:

Johnson: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 6, ?
Stewart: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12 (missed 2 years to WW2)
Lapointe: 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6
Langway: 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 9, 10, 11
Niedermayer: 1, 2, 2, 5, 9, 10, 12

Lionel Conacher was a great player, but he wasn't in this league.

Argument 2: Ivan Johnson regularly placed on Pre-WW2 All-Time All-Star lists from NHL insiders. Moose Johnson and Lionel Conacher did not.

All Time Best Players - Lists by their contemporaries

I always found it interesting to hear what was said about the hockey players of the early era (Pre World War II). Naturally we know the least about these players as we have very limited footage available from games, a few 30 second clips here and there. Very few people are alive today who...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Most times mentioned by a hockey insider as an all-star defenseman on a pre-WW2 list:

Eddie Shore 20
Eddie Gerard 10
Sprague Cleghorn 10
Ivan Johnson 9
Dit Clapper 6
Hod Stuart 5
Lester Patrick 5
King Clancy 5
Georges Boucher 4
Earl Seibert 4

Lionel Conacher placed on 2 lists. Moose Johnson on none.

Argument 3: Moose Johnson was just not thought of as highly as other notable defensemen on retrospective lists:

Not only did he not get a single vote on one of the above all-time all-star lists, he also finished below Lester Patrick, Art Ross, and Bullet Joe Simpson on MacLean's 1925 poll of hockey insiders for their All-Time All-Star team:

1st Team: Sprague Cleghorn, Hod Stuart
2nd Team: Eddie Gerard, George Boucher
3rd Team: Joe Simpson, Lester Patrick/Art Ross (equal votes)

D. #4s - Siebert and Suchy are hard to compare, but seem close

Both men had very short very high peaks, with a lot of years as merely "very good" players mixed in

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

As for the bottom pairings, I'm not sure who is the best of the 4, it's between Harvey Pulford and Mark Giordano. I'm pretty sure Giordano peaked the highest, as he was voted the best defenseman in the world once, and was the favorite another year before getting hurt. Harvey Pulford was Derian Hatcher like rock in the playoffs with a really long career for a guy of that era, but I'm pretty sure he was never thought to be better than Hod Stuart.

Mark Giordano Norris record: 1, 6, 8, 10

Giordano is as close to an even strength specialist as you'll find in the NHL. In the ATD, I consider Pulford something of a PK specialist like Derian Hatcher (though more effective at even strength as a shut down guy than Giordano would be at either special team).

Basically, I would draft Pulford first, but a large part of that is as a PK guy, at even strength, I honestly think Giordano might be more effective here. Hard to say for sure.

And yeah, I have long considered Pulford like a really really early era Derian Hatcher in both style and quality (but I'm also fairly high on Hatcher).

The Two Reds:

Red Horner spent his entire career in the NHL. Here is his All-star record: 5, 7, 8, 8, 10

Red Dutton's NHL All-Star record is 5, 6, 8, however Red Dutton didn't join the NHL until he was 29 years old. By contrast, Red Horner retired after his age 30 season.

Before joining the NHL, Dutton was a 1st Team All-Star twice in the WCHL (though once when it was a very weak league), and Mickey Ion (the guy who selected the PCHA All-Star Teams) would have selected Dutton a WCHL 1st Team All-Star a 3rd Time (right after the WCHL absorbed the PCHA and was quite strong).

In my opinion, Dutton's record in the WCHL in his 20s more than makes up for Horner's additional 8th and 10th place finishes in All-Star voting in the NHL.

Summary

Giordano has the highest peak of any of these 4. In terms of overall ATD value, I'd still take Harvey Pulford, but Giordano might just have the advantage at even strength.

Among the #6s, Dutton is the superior Red based on his WCHL record.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

My questions for this series:

1. What sort of style is Milwaukee playing? Is this kitty-bar-the-door (i.e. one attack and then get back and defend the neutral zone) style hockey? I guess I could see that working...Milwaukee isn't really set up with the wings to foreckeck anyway, but it's just not entirely clear to me what style of hockey Milwaukee intends to play.

2. Will Sid Abel be effective checking Milwaukee's speedy right wings?

3. Does the leadership gap matter here? One team has a captain who barely wore the C in his real career, and the other has so much leadership they didn't bother giving Bill Cook a letter (which I disagree with, but whatever).

4. It's clear enough to me what role Milwaukee's 4th line will play, but much less so with New Jersey. What are the devils trying to get out of that 4th line? What is the matchup they're seeking?

2. Take step back into the current NHL - wing-on-wing checking is obsolete. In fact, it's barely been used since the 1980s, maybe 1990s. In a man-on-man system, defensemen cover wingers. And the center helps provide defensive support.

This current iteration of the Swamp Devils is built with a modern defensive scheme, where the defensemen and centers take primary defensive responsibility (though Abel is of course defensively responsible despite his lack of speed in the 2nd half of his career).

Of course, wing-on-wing checking is very viable in the ATD, as it was for the majority of hockey's history. But by now, it certainly shouldn't be required. I mean, maybe it would be an issue if I ever faced a team with a true superstar ATD winger like Howe or Hull or Richard, but this isn't that.

The primary responsibility for Teemu Selanne will be by LDs Doug Harvey or Babe Siebert, both of them good skaters.

But yes, this is weird for me too... I usually have a shadow winger type somewhere in my lineup.

3. Cook probably should be a leader over Harvey, but since a big part of an A's role is to yap at the refs when the C isn't on the ice, I hate having 2 letters on the same line. And Cook is playing virtually every shift with Sakic. But yes, this might be the best group of leaders I've ever put together. I sort of did it on purpose, after feeling like leadership was a weakness of my team last year.

4. Crash and bang hockey baby! The one way my team is traditional is by having 2 scoring lines, a checking line, and a crash and bang line. Though I made sure all 4 of my lines could score somewhat (and defend somewhat).

All 3 of my guys are physical players; indeed it's the only reason I took Robert over Bobby Rousseau as my RH shot for the PP point.

In terms of scoring, it's basically "Starsh in front of the net, the wingers throw the puck in front." It is a crash-and-bang line afterall. Rusty Crawford has a sneaky good assists record, and Robert was fairly balanced between goals and assists, so I think it works that way.

All that said, Starshinov and Robert were drafted more for their specialized roles on the PP than ES, so I feel like this line will see limited ES minutes.

 

[VanIslander]

Dutton is the superior Red based on his WCHL record.

Red Horner is worse than Red Dutton?

The HHOFer top-6 ranked Leaf dman ever is WORSE than the every-ATD-much-much-lower drafted WCHLer?

That's melting icing on your hot takes.

 

[Sturminator]

Red Horner is worse than Red Dutton?

The HHOFer top-6 ranked Leaf dman ever is WORSE than the every-ATD-much-much-lower drafted WCHLer?

That's melting icing on your hot takes.

I'm not sure it's that hot of a take, but I do value the fact that Horner is in the hall of fame - and made it in the 60s, meaning that the people who voted him in saw him play. How much should we weigh that fact? I dunno, but it does matter to me.

 

[VanIslander]

Line by line: Milwaukee is clearly the better team. Every. Single. Line.

Penalty killing is also a clear Milwaukee advantage.

Goaltending is a huge career advantage for Milwaukee but the 6th-or-7th-best-player role on a dynasty makes up some of the gap.

(Jan Suchy is apparently chopped liver but Giordano is an ATD star? Huh.)

And don't get me started on the powerplay units! Just look.

"But the other team has Harvey." Yeah, a higher 1st round position. Lucky duck. To counter: Howie Morenz AND Red Kelly (both top-10ish ever worthy players! was my attempt to counter in the 18-team ATD.)

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm not sure it's that hot of a take, but I do value the fact that Horner is in the hall of fame - and made it in the 60s, meaning that the people who voted him in saw him play. How much should we weigh that fact? I dunno, but it does matter to me.

Red Dutton made the HHOF in 1958. Red Horner didn't make it until 1965, after a shit ton of guys made it in 1961 and 1962.

Hockey Hall of Fame Inductees | Hockey-Reference.com

Get the list of all the Hockey Hall of Fame Inductees on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

The big caveat is that Dutton probably got bonus points as something of a player/builder hybrid.

 

[Sturminator]

Red Dutton made the HHOF in 1958. Red Horner didn't make it until 1965, after a shit ton of guys made it in 1961 and 1962.

Hockey Hall of Fame Inductees | Hockey-Reference.com

Get the list of all the Hockey Hall of Fame Inductees on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

The big caveat is that Dutton probably got bonus points as something of a player/builder hybrid.

Hmmm...hadn't realized Dutton was even in the hall. Ah yeah, the big 1958 class with Dick Irvin in it, who also got in as a player probably partially because of his role as coach/builder. I don't know how much that really tells us. With Irvin, I've always been skeptical that he'd have made it just as a player.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Hmmm...hadn't realized Dutton was even in the hall. Ah yeah, the big 1958 class with Dick Irvin in it, who also got in as a player probably partially because of his role as coach/builder. I don't know how much that really tells us. With Irvin, I've always been skeptical that he'd have made it just as a player.

Yes, I thought of using "Dutton got into the HHOF well before Horner" as part of my argument above, but decided against it because of the whole player/builder thing for Dutton.

 

[VanIslander]

I am embarrassed to be here.

Dutton PERFORMED over Horner?

Not anywhere close in my universe.

"Red" has wisely been drafted SEVERAL rounds Horner in favor of distant Dutton, but suddenly not.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I am embarrassed to be here.

Dutton PERFORMED over Horner?

Not anywhere close in my universe.

"Red" has wisely been drafted SEVERAL rounds Horner in favor of distant Dutton, but suddenly not.

Appealing to past ATD order is the lamest argument on this board.

When "ATD canon" was established, we didn't have anything close to complete NHL all-star records. So we knew basically nothing as to how these guys were thought of by their peers. Horner was drafted high as a "tough guy Maple Leaf with big time PIMs and decent scoring!"

But at least we knew something of Horner; we barely knew anything about WCHL players; we certainly didn't have WCHL all-star teams.

IMO, WCHL stars might be the last group of players in the ATD to finally get their due. A few of us spent many hours fleshing out Duke Keats in the last few years, but he's not the only WCHL star. I was hoping to draft Bullet Joe Simpson this time, as I think he's probably the most underrated WCHL star here. But Red Dutton is probably the next step down from Simpson as a player from that league.

When you look at all the non-HHOFers from the later weaker years of the PCHA who usually get drafted over WCHLers who are in the HHOF, it doesn't seem right (though this definitely started to change this draft with Simpson going higher than he ever did).

 

[VanIslander]

One is a HHOFer and top-6 ranked all-time defenseman of the Toronto Maple Leafs and the other is a pimped guy from popular poster TDMM.

I cry uncle.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

One is a HHOFer and top-6 ranked all-time defenseman of the Toronto Maple Leafs and the other is a pimped guy from popular poster TDMM.

I cry uncle.

They are both HHOFers

Horner isn't close to being a top 6 all time Leafs defenseman.