JFresh Standings Predictions for 2023-24

[WeThreeKings]

I don't think that Jackeye regresses one bit unless they mess with his game, that kid is a bulldog and isn't likely to slow down, the same goes for RHP, too much desire in those guys to take a step back. Monty is also showing signs of breaking out as an NHL goalie, he's probably going to add to his play from last year. If the team is healthy they will compete and I stand by the 80-point prediction.

It isn't necessarily anything to do with will etc. for them to take a step back.

NHL teams just had an entire off-season to watch tape and game plan to attack their weaknesses. That's why the 2nd year is typically a struggle, you don't surprise anyone anymore and they gameplan against you and that's when you adapt your game to be more well rounded or find ways to put your tools to use.

It's just common.

 

[Habaneros]

Montreal will finish with 17 pts...and end up with 3rd overall pick .

 

[Team_Spirit]

Montreal will finish with 17 pts...and end up with 3rd overall pick .

 

[Frank Drebin]

Montreal will finish with 17 pts...and end up with 3rd overall pick .

And... Draft another dman

 

[JT3]

Even with stagnant development from the young players, it's possible we pick up an extra 8-10 points just by being healthier. Caufield and Matheson the two big ones, as well as Dach, hopefully Monahan, and even Gallagher if he can stay in the lineup. Add continued development from the young guys and honestly I feel there is some potential for us to surprise a bit. Not saying it's likely, I do think we are probably in that 5-8 range, but I can see a world where we hang around in the bubble spot until February or so before falling out. I'm not convinced this team is as bad as people think anymore, but we'll see.

 

[Colezuki]

Let's say realistically we shouldn't finish about more than 1 team in the Atlantic.

So if we are bottom 2 in the Atlantic, who are the 7ish other teams across the league that you project to finish lower than us?

I think it is a worthwhile exercise, not bashing your opinion, I've seen it from a few people and I think we are probably in that 5-8 range.

Ill bite,

My for sures
CHI, ANA, PHI, SJ, ARI

My group where I think we end up in
WSH, PITT, STL, NSH, Calgary, Vancouver (+1 underachieving atlantic team)

puts us between 6-13

 

[General Fanager]

edit: error

 

[BLONG7]

If we are able to keep the injuries in check and some of our kids continue to show progress it's possible for this team to be in the 80-point range.

Absolutely..............thinking if they can stay healthy, and Monty carry the mail, we could get 80 pts.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

I don't think that Jackeye regresses one bit unless they mess with his game, that kid is a bulldog and isn't likely to slow down, the same goes for RHP, too much desire in those guys to take a step back. Monty is also showing signs of breaking out as an NHL goalie, he's probably going to add to his play from last year. If the team is healthy they will compete and I stand by the 80-point prediction.

This feels more like misplaced optimism than realistic projection. RHP not regressing is possible, but highly unlikely. No player has ever realistically sustained a 24% shooting percentage, regardless of their "desire".

As for Monty, he was 12th in the league for GSAx per 60 among goalies with 30+ games. That's borderline elite goaltending for the span of 1 year, which is rarely sustained except by the very best: there are only 5 goalies who were top-15 for that stat in 21-22 AND 22-23, and they're exactly who you would expect: Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, Saros, Vasilevskiy and Sorokin. Goaltending is volatile, and history suggests a regression to the mean for Monty.

What you suggest is possible, but unlikely.

 

[JianYang]

It's going to be tough sledding again, but if some key guys stay healthier this year like Guhle, matheson, caufield and monahan, that's worth a few points increase in itself.

Monahan probably will get hurt though, and I thought our forward group really broke down from a depth standpoint when he went out.

 

[TesseractPrice]

While next year's edition will probably be better than last one's, the rank the team will finish at is mostly dictated by how the other teams perform. In that regard the 5-8th last ranking sounds very reasonable. Here's how I think it will unfold

Terrible teams (almost bottom 2 guaranteed): Sharks and Hawks
Less-terrible (next 4 teams, low fluctuation): Jackets, Habs, Yotes, Flyers
High fluctuation (higher highs than above tier but equal lows): Blues, Preds, Caps, Flames, Canucks, one mistery team

So I'd say my prediction for ranking is a normalish distribution with a range of 30th to 21st with a most likely ending at 28th to 26th.

IMO, to finish 21st, the Habs would need breakout performances from both Slaf and Newhook with heatlhy seasons from Monahan, Matheson and Guhle and average performances from Allen and Montembault. It seems pretty unlikely

Whatever happens, I'm sure the Habs will have one point fewer than the Yotes and take the guy they wanted at the draft, it's become a tradition at this point

 

[SlafySZN]

Realistically, we're not finishing above any team in the Atlantic. Ottawa, Detroit and Buffalo have all made moves towards competing, and should continue to do so. It will be apparent in player usage and coaching strategy all year.

As for the rest of the league, I'm only confident in 2 teams finishing below us; Chicago and Philly. You could potentially add San Jose as well. Otherwise, Anaheim, Colombus and even Arizona should all have improved and should rival us for that top-5 spot. The weird group of Nashville, Washington, St-Louis, Calgary and Vancouver should still be clear.

Some of our players will be better, and we'll get less injuries. However, we had all-time high shooting luck from plugs (and Suzuki for 2 months) and that should regress to the mean. Same thing for goaltending. We were still playing for .500 on December 20th last year, I don't see it happening this year.

This.

 

[Ezpz]

These models don't really take progression into account for younger players. That's why teams who added vets jumped a lot in points. Detroit isn't going to make the playoffs.

 

[Trabdy2]

I see us finishing between 8th and 12th last. We have a lot of young players who are progressing, and without a pile of injuries we should be taking a step forward in the standings, but I don't see us very close to the playoffs this year. Scenarios where we make the playoffs or finish in the bottom 5 would surprise me about equally.

 

[Takeru]

These models don't really take progression into account for younger players. That's why teams who added vets jumped a lot in points. Detroit isn't going to make the playoffs.

Nor regression. I doubt BOS gets above 100pts this season. Also what the heck is up with WPG and LAK? Guess we really dodged a bullet with PLD, seems like he was an anchor, Jets dumped him and will claim division while Kings fall out of POs lmao.

 

[Captain97]

I'm okay with them finishing the year with 69 pts

- signed A Guy Whose Mind Is in the Gutter

Hear me out you keep the thermostat at 69 Fahrenheit so that way if anyone complains about it being cold you can just say not it's Very Nice.

 

[LaP]

I don't think that Jackeye regresses one bit unless they mess with his game, that kid is a bulldog and isn't likely to slow down, the same goes for RHP, too much desire in those guys to take a step back. Monty is also showing signs of breaking out as an NHL goalie, he's probably going to add to his play from last year. If the team is healthy they will compete and I stand by the 80-point prediction.

I like RHP but expecting him to not regress is ... i'm not sure how to call this but kind of foolish tbh.

He had 14 goals and 20 points in 34 games. That's a pace of 34 goals and 48 points. 34 goals would have put him 39th in the whole league. Our only player who can realistically score 34 goals on a regular basis is Caufield. Again i like the kid but expecting more than 15-20 goals and 35-40 points is having unrealistic expectations. He will regress that's almost certain and i would be schocked if he does not.

Same for Belzile. He is not with us anymore but the guy replacing him in our bottom 6 will have unreal expectation to fullfill. He had 6 goals and 14 points in 31 games. That's 16 goals and 37 points over 82 games. From a bottom 6 playing 11 minutes a games that's extremely hard to do and unfair to the guy who will replace him to expect the same kind of production.

 

[Captain97]

Models like this are why I am considering starting doing hockey stats projects on the side and try to make money on them.

I have Data Science background and am certain I could build better stuff than most of these people.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Models like this are why I am considering starting doing hockey stats projects on the side and try to make money on them.

I have Data Science background and am certain I could build better stuff than most of these people.

You'd be surprised at the complexity of these models. It's very hard to come up with things that are like super accurate due to the inherently variant nature of hockey, and the limitations that come with data. They can give us good ideas.

The best 95% ICs (jfresh doesn't show them) you're going to get is probably like ±10-15 points, theoritically.

Amongst other complexities is trying to project 1) new players coming into the league, 2) how younger players will progress, 3) how older players will regress, etc. As we all know, most players don't follow anything linear. For all we know Tage could drop down to being a 60-70 points player as soon as next season for the Sabres, for example.

It's, as you might expect, far more complicated than just doing simple regressions. There's a lot of work that goes into these behind the scenes, with a whole community even hosting seminars presenting their research/results/etc. like you'd see in academic fields. There's generally also a lot of back-validation done but that comes with its own caveats since we only have relevant data going back to 07-08. Splitting your data so you can "train" on a batch and verify on another can be quite challenging.

 

[OldCraig71]

I like RHP but expecting him to not regress is ... i'm not sure how to call this but kind of foolish tbh.

He had 14 goals and 20 points in 34 games. That's a pace of 34 goals and 48 points. 34 goals would have put him 39th in the whole league. Our only player who can realistically score 34 goals on a regular basis is Caufield. Again i like the kid but expecting more than 15-20 goals and 35-40 points is having unrealistic expectations. He will regress that's almost certain and i would be schocked if he does not.

Same for Belzile. He is not with us anymore but the guy replacing him in our bottom 6 will have unreal expectation to fullfill. He had 6 goals and 14 points in 31 games. That's 16 goals and 37 points over 82 games. From a bottom 6 playing 11 minutes a games that's extremely hard to do and unfair to the guy who will replace him to expect the same kind of production.

You could have replied without this. There is nothing wrong with me saying that I don't think that RHP or Xhekaj will regress, it's just a fan site with no weight attached to anything we say here.

This feels more like misplaced optimism than realistic projection. RHP not regressing is possible, but highly unlikely. No player has ever realistically sustained a 24% shooting percentage, regardless of their "desire".

As for Monty, he was 12th in the league for GSAx per 60 among goalies with 30+ games. That's borderline elite goaltending for the span of 1 year, which is rarely sustained except by the very best: there are only 5 goalies who were top-15 for that stat in 21-22 AND 22-23, and they're exactly who you would expect: Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, Saros, Vasilevskiy and Sorokin. Goaltending is volatile, and history suggests a regression to the mean for Monty.

What you suggest is possible, but unlikely.

I won't lose sleep over it if I am wrong, it's just a game.

 

[AHShadow]

What I'm hoping is that most of our kids score more points, but we still somehow finish at the bottom.

IMO, we are clearly the worst team in the Atlantic with only Detroit possibly being worst than us (although they shouldn't be). Buffalo and Ottawa should be competing for a playoff spot.

The other teams that should be worse than us are probably Chicago, Philly and possibly SJ, Anaheim and Arizona. Columbus should be better with Fantilli coming in.

Assuming one of the 5 do better than expected and realistically 2 teams we thought would be good imploding, I think we're still in the lower half of the top 10 with a realistic chance of being top 5 again this year.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

I won't lose sleep over it if I am wrong, it's just a game.

Indeed it is. I just gave you the facts, now you can keep up the optimism if you feel like it.

 

[Captain97]

You'd be surprised at the complexity of these models. It's very hard to come up with things that are like super accurate due to the inherently variant nature of hockey, and the limitations that come with data. They can give us good ideas.

The best 95% ICs (jfresh doesn't show them) you're going to get is probably like ±10-15 points, theoritically.

Amongst other complexities is trying to project 1) new players coming into the league, 2) how younger players will progress, 3) how older players will regress, etc. As we all know, most players don't follow anything linear. For all we know Tage could drop down to being a 60-70 points player as soon as next season for the Sabres, for example.

It's, as you might expect, far more complicated than just doing simple regressions. There's a lot of work that goes into these behind the scenes, with a whole community even hosting seminars presenting their research/results/etc. like you'd see in academic fields. There's generally also a lot of back-validation done but that comes with its own caveats since we only have relevant data going back to 07-08. Splitting your data so you can "train" on a batch and verify on another can be quite challenging.

Agreed, train/test split would be difficult given data only goes back so far and the style of game changes so quickly that data pre 2012 lockout is probably useless.

But some of these models provide such outrageous results. I'm actually going to try and start working on a project and try and develop a model to do contract pricing/aav value on a two fold front.

Value in regular season and value in playoffs. And try and determine a $ value to net positives and negatives based on what is needed to make the playoffs and advance through rounds of the playoffs based on position (probably exclude goalies as they are too few + have too many outlier years).

If I fail so be it, but I used to build models to price complex financial derivatives. It'll be interesting to see whats harder.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I have no idea why people use this idiot, or any other idiot.

This dude doesn't understand hockey in the slightest.

Just don't use his "statistics"

 

[Goldenhands]

My thoughts:

I think it undersells us a little bit.. and it overrates Detroit too much while underrating Buffalo.

Islanders look super overrated.

Columbus is being slept on too much, not accounting for the injuries they had last year.

and uhh how does WPG get that projection?

Agree and our young fowards will take another step ahead. 6-10 seems fair IMO.