Jets in “good” company

[Howard Chuck]

In the end, shot metrics describe things, but don't do a good job of explaining them. They are also predictive, but not as predictive as is sometimes implied. They are often misused or misunderstood to make judgements on players that are overly simplistic.

Just to take one snippet out of context (and I hope that's ok), this is where I stand on hockey stats. I know as humans all we can do is look at what has happened historically and extrapolate into the future based on that, or try to make adjustments to get an advantage over an opponent in a league that has such parity.

I appreciate the work that goes into to the advanced stats, and agree that generally they are good thing, but there are so many random events that happen in a game as fast as hockey, with so many moving parts. They are a tool, and a useful tool, but not the whole toolbox. There are unorthodox players that will come along every once in a while that won't fit any previous mold, but will be very successful, so you don't want to lose that potential by eliminating a player because they don't fulfill any prerequisite stats.

Anyway, interesting (and respectful) discussion.

 

[Gm0ney]

Corsi has us middle of the pack/slightly below average
Scoring chances % has us middle of the pack/slightly above average
GAR has us middle of the pack/slightly below average
xG % has us near bottom

Jets fans: let's focus on xG%!!!

I think eye-test confirms the first three, and that xG% is due for some regression

Yeah everything is going so well except for the xG...well, and the PK (29th), and the actual goals-for (29th), and the powerplay (23rd). But hey, they're near the top of the bottom third of the league in Corsi!

This team has 4 regulation wins in 19 games. The only thing going well for the Jets is Hellebuyck's save percentage and 3v3 where they get to open it up and not play Maurice's godawful prevent D. Everything else is shit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah everything is going so well except for the xG...well, and the PK (29th), and the actual goals-for (29th), and the powerplay (23rd). But hey, they're near the top of the bottom third of the league in Corsi!

This team has 4 regulation wins in 19 games. The only thing going well for the Jets is Hellebuyck's save percentage and 3v3 where they get to open it up and not play Maurice's godawful prevent D. Everything else is ****.

You make this sound so terribly negative. Unfortunately it is also true.

Both the PK and the PP have been better recently so there is some hope. Why in hell can't this high powered offensive team score?! We just took 40 shots on a not particularly good AHL goalie and couldn't get 1 past him.

 

[Spock]

Just to take one snippet out of context (and I hope that's ok), this is where I stand on hockey stats. I know as humans all we can do is look at what has happened historically and extrapolate into the future based on that, or try to make adjustments to get an advantage over an opponent in a league that has such parity.

I appreciate the work that goes into to the advanced stats, and agree that generally they are good thing, but there are so many random events that happen in a game as fast as hockey, with so many moving parts. They are a tool, and a useful tool, but not the whole toolbox. There are unorthodox players that will come along every once in a while that won't fit any previous mold, but will be very successful, so you don't want to lose that potential by eliminating a player because they don't fulfill any prerequisite stats.

Anyway, interesting (and respectful) discussion.

Speak for yourself.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

You make this sound so terribly negative. Unfortunately it is also true.

Both the PK and the PP have been better recently so there is some hope. Why in hell can't this high powered offensive team score?! We just took 40 shots on a not particularly good AHL goalie and couldn't get 1 past him.

I think that goalie has a future in Accounting.

 

[voyageur]

Ahhhh made up stats

Seriously, though - the eyes confirmed the Jets were bad after Christmas last year, and so far this year, I feel like especially with the lack of top 4 D we have, and outside a couple of stinkers the team has been pretty decent. The team has looked better as of late so hopefully that is the trend and not a blip.

The stat that sticks out to me is the big minus beside Morrissey. That's our #1 d-man getting torched on a regular basis, mathematically almost 2 out of 3 games being on the - side of the ledger. And really that's where I see the problem. We can look at the team that played without Buff last year. Morrissey-Trouba played a lot. Kulikov-Myers played significant minutes. And then Chiarot-Niku were steady, after a few bumps in the road. Well Kulikov-Pionk is doing the same as Kulikov-Myers did last year as a top 4. Sbisa is an adequate replacement for Chiarot. Beaulieu in for Niku isn't quite the same dynamic offensively, but Beaulieu is probably a little better defensively. So we are essentially missing Trouba's role, which Poolman has not grown into. And it is probably not the right role for him.

I'd like to see Niku get a look along side Morrissey. If Nashville can win games with Josi-Ellis, I don't think Morrissey-Niku is that far off. We would have a top 4 at least, little bit green, but at least 3 great skaters in it. Defensemen who can push the pace, join the rush, and push the play behind the goal line, are the key to creating and sustaining possession.

Then you can have a competition between bottom pairs, Beaulieu-Sbisa, Bitetto-Poolman.

Right now that is what we have. Samberg is an end of season aspiration for the top 4. Kovacevic could develop into an NHL regular by the end of the year, with lots of reps.

For all the talent we claim to have, we are really just running 2 scoring lines, and a checking/possession line too.
Apples and Bourque are 4th line energy guys, who can play up the lineup a line, but the 4th line hasn't been a factor since Perreault-Gustafsson-Bourque were together.

The salary cap and trades have really thinned us out at forward, and with Little out for awhile, the talent margin is not necessarily in our favour, if you come across a good defense that can stifle our speed.

Going to have to be scrappy all year to get to the playoffs.

 

[MardyBum]

Yup.

The thing is, though, that while Hellebuyck has been fantastic, the Jets are still only 11th in SV% with a .912, 11th in ES sv% with a .920 and 27th in AS shooting at 8.26% (as a team with two players who are career 15% shooters). Regression goes two ways.

Well, because Brossoit has sucked.

Hellebuyck is leading the league in GSAA, meanwhile Bro is 5th or so worst, even worse than Hutch.

It's worrying that we're being carried by goaltending. This is an even worse version of how 17-18 started. Lets hope we get an even better turnaround

 

[Ggg99]

Yeah everything is going so well except for the xG...well, and the PK (29th), and the actual goals-for (29th), and the powerplay (23rd). But hey, they're near the top of the bottom third of the league in Corsi!

This team has 4 regulation wins in 19 games. The only thing going well for the Jets is Hellebuyck's save percentage and 3v3 where they get to open it up and not play Maurice's godawful prevent D. Everything else is ****.

This is an excellent summary of where we are at. I also appreciate the fancy stats but as has been said, the short summary is that Helly has been the huge positive counter to the crappy xG.

What really strikes me is only 4 regulation wins in 19 games and we are still in a playoff spot clinging to the second wildcard. And only 15 days from the all important US Thanksgiving.

But don't see how we can hold a playoff spot long term if regulation wins don't pick up and the underlying team numbers continue to suck.

Smoke and mirrors with waiver wire pick-ups and a side of great Helly can only work so long.

 

[JetsFan815]

In the 2019 calendar year which now includes 63 games, the Jets are dead last in league in xGF%- worse than teams like Ottawa, Detroit and LA, that seems like a pretty long sample size for things to be that bad. I am starting abandon hope that things are going to get any better with the Jets in their current configuration.

 

[Gm0ney]

In the 2019 calendar year which now includes 63 games, the Jets are dead last in league in xGF%, that seems like a pretty long sample size for things to be that bad. I am starting abandoned hope that things are going to get any better with the Jets in their current configuration.

Apparently this team was always just a Byfuglien away from being total crap...

 

[surixon]

Its incredible how our offense has regressed over the last two years:

Here is the trend from 17-18:

To now:

No wonder this team is having issues scoring.

Also our defense has also declined over the last three years:

to this:

Maurice's choice to overcompensate isn't at all having the type of impact on defense that he wants it to and its crushing our offense to boot.

 

[Whileee]

Jets well ahead of the Blues in CF% and virtually tied in xGF%.