Post-Game Talk: Jets beat the Kings 2-1. Win the Scorsi and the Corsi!

[KingBogo]

I am officially challenging the title of the thread. It didn't pass the eye test to me. My impression was that we stuck with our usual formula of 'Screw the Corsi, Win the Scorsi'. I was right. Straight up all situations CF% we lost 48.1 to 51.9. Source: Winnipeg Jets at Los Angeles Kings Box Score — November 22, 2017 | Hockey-Reference.com

I would like an official apology and the thread name to be corrected to reflect factual history and the 2017 Jets going down in history as the worst Corsi team in history to win the Stanley Cup!

OK, I don't really want an apology.

OK, you don't have to change the thread title if you don't want to.

But what is that Corsi VooDoo chart that you posted? Straight up Corsi, looks like we lost.

At least 5-5 corsi measures something. 5-5 close is a better measure. Once you go to all situations corsi it becomes pretty meaningless.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Hockey players pay income taxes in the jurisdictions in which they earn their salary. So for a Jet, they'd pay Canada/Manitoba tax on 50% of their income and the other 50% would be taxed at different rates depending on where they play (they'd pay more tax in Minnesota and California than they do in Winnipeg, and pretty close to the same in New York, New Jersey and Washington, DC).

A salary of $3,000,000 USD earned in Florida would be taxed at the US Federal rate and (assuming a single filer, no dependents) would pay about $1.2M in income tax.
In Manitoba, that salary would taxed approximately $1.5M.

But actually only 50% of that salary would be taxed in the home jurisdiction, so the difference would only be about $150,000. The road game income tax would average out to about the same.

So he's doing this for $150k/year? Come on....

One of the reasons Stamkos structured his contract the way he did was for lockout protection. But beyond that it has the added benefit of ensuring 100% of his SB money is taxed in Florida and not subject to Out of state income taxes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He might not be that good of a goalie, but I'd still take him 100 times out of 100 over Pavs

OK, but I don't know why you would even suggest he is not a good goalie. The evidence says that he is. Over Pavs? Mason isn't Pavlecian - he is more Hellebuyckian.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If you want to make this argument re Mason, then you also need to apply the same logic to Quick. Why is he immune to the “what-ifs” and hypothetical scenarios?

I think the point is how close that is. 1 less mistake by Quick and 1 more by Mason and we have the opposite result. Just 1 of those 2 and we have a tie. That is very close considering how small those mistakes can be.

 

[KingBogo]

The first day is the worst one. Hang in there! 11 yrs, 4 mos, 23 days, so far. But who's counting.

No one ever regretted getting off tobacco. No one. EVER.

October 9th made it 16 years for me

 

[GNP]

Pro athletes have to pay income tax based on each city that they play in. So even if you live in a state with no income tax, you have to pay income tax for each away game that you play in a state or province with income tax.

And in any event you have your tax rates wrong. Manitoba's income tax rate is only 17.4% on amounts over $64,000. Yes there is also a federal tax rate of 33% on amounts over $202,000, but then again you'd also have to factor in the US federal income tax rate of 39.6% on amounts over $413,000.

So there is a tax advantage to living in Florida, but it's nowhere near as big as you make it out to be. In any event Trouba's not so good he can basically dictate which team takes him. I do believe he wants out and his days in Winnipeg are numbered, but the Jets should be able to trade him to any of a wide range of teams.

Excellent post Yukon !!! you are right on, and it's true I made this out to be bigger than it is. Your also right both the US and Canada have Federal tax--so we'll call that a "wash"

As you say Trouba would "not" have to pay 17.4 % Manitoba tax or similar on any "home games" which we'll say is 40 games roughly. ( thanks for the 17.4 % figure)

So at 1/2 the games being at home ( in a zero tax state) Trouba would save as follows
.174%/ 3.,000,000 = $ 522,000 /2 = $ 261,000 dollars in tax savings. If he got a contract for $ 6 mil - you can double his tax savings to $ 522,00o per year. and over 10 years that's 10 * $ 522,000 = $ 5.2 million over a 10 year period. ( big bucs)

Note- this is a rough calculation that only saves "on home games" - not road games, cuz as you say, when you play elsewhere, you pay tax in accordance to the State or Province where you play.

Please understand- as a life long Winnipeger, I hate to see a guy using our home team, and trying to mess with us, and I believe this is what Trouba is doing. I think the Jet's should dump him now, while his value is high.

2 examples come to mind to "force the play"

Eric Lindros- drafted by Quebec said he wasn't going to play in the NHL unless he got traded--and he got his way. His rights were traded to the Flyers. ( Philly)

John Elway ( NFL) - drafted by the Colts--said he would not play for them, and would not play football in the NFL unless his rights were traded. He got his way, and was traded to Denver.

This is what's happening here !!! -- I have "no doubt" it makes sense $$$$$

 

[KingBogo]

Fake news!

Some posters won't be happy until the Jets go on a 5 game losing streak and they can open the tank thread.

Delighted with a gritty road win and very happy for mason. hope he gets the Ducks game as he earned it. Just need 2 - 2 on this 4 game trip.

I have no doubt about this

 

[10Ducky10]

Why is it "beyond ridiculous"--if Trouba wants out ( like I think ) he'll just keep playing really badly--so what are the Jet's going to do ??? Refer to my post # 331 above for the answer as to why this makes sense for Trouba.-"he want's out"

Chevy probably told him he was going to try and trade him, and Trouba sees nothing happening. If Trouba will go to any means to get out, his strategy will work here.

I think the Trouba camp is playing TNSE - and Jet's management, and is a lot smarter than people think. He's "forcing the play here"

Important - Florida is one of the 5 US states that has no state or provincial tax. Manitoba's is around 30% and .30 / $ 3mil = $ 900,000 dollars of tax savings. That's why Tiger Woods and these guys moved to Florida. ( Texas is another state-tax free) If that doesn't make sense, I don't know what does.

Proof will be, if his terribly bad play continues-"you'll know what's up"

But you think Myers is our best D man.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Would prefer:

Perreault Copp Armia
Matthais Lowry Tanev (would really prefer Lemieux over Matthais)

Lowry is a great possession player but he is where offence goes to die. Copp has much better hands but still a nice 200ft game.

I think you exaggerate Lowry's offensive weakness but I agree that Copp seems to have a little more scoring potential. I would try each way for a 10-15 game stretch. Copp deserves a chance.

 

[GNP]

But you think Myers is our best D man.

Hey Ducky- I don't think Myers is our best D-man--I think Buff is, and right now, I think Myer's is our second best D-man. Trouba is purposely playing badly IMO and is trying to force the Jets to trade him. Trouba played great last year though--so why can he not make a simple pass out of his own end now. This Trouba guy is playing the Jets, and this story is just starting to play out, and I don't want to see the Jets get the short end of the stick.

This is a "money issue"--see my post # 331 - it explains my reasoning.

PS- I do have an affection for Myers- I like his attitude, and like his offensive skills, but I don't think he's better than Buff.

 

[KingBogo]

This is the Scheifele scenario.
Since January 2015 all we've heard is his scoring rates aren't sustainable.
You would think a season + a half season + a quarter season would perhaps be enough sample size to dispel some of this.

What is even more interesting is his shooting% is actually going up over that span rather than regressing. 14.9% in 15-16, 20% in 16-17 and 27.5% so far this season. We will see how Scheifele ends the year, but he has a mind set that you don't waste shots that have a low chance of scoring.

 

[GNP]

What if none of those low tax states decides they have enough cap space to sign him as a UFA? Then what?

Avco-- it doesn't matter -- if they trade us a guy that their paying $ 4mil per year to--they free up $ 4 million cap space, and they can take Trouba on at $ 3 mil on his bridge deal. It's basically a wash.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Avco-- it doesn't matter -- if they trade us a guy that their paying $ 4mil per year to--they free up $ 4 million cap space, and they can take Trouba on at $ 3 mil on his bridge deal. It's basically a wash.

He's gonna demand a hell of a lot more than $3M once he becomes a UFA. More like they'd have to clear $7 or $8M and that's something they would have to plan for well in advance of that UFA season.

My point being just because Trouba may want to play in Florida it does not mean that one of the Florida teams would be willing or able to take him on in two years. And no guarantee that any other low tax state team would have the cap room to do it either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

October 9th made it 16 years for me

But who counts, eh?

It was a real battle for me. I used a lot of substitutes. Took a year until I was able to wean off of them but after the first week I never wanted to smoke again. I just wish I had quit 30 years sooner. No wait, make that 45 years. Still get an occasional random little craving. Comes and goes in seconds, almost nostalgic.

 

[GNP]

He's gonna demand a hell of a lot more than $3M once he becomes a UFA. More like they'd have to clear $7 or $8M and that's something they would have to plan for well in advance of that UFA season.

My point being just because Trouba may want to play in Florida it does not mean that one of the Florida teams would be willing or able to take him on in two years. And no guarantee that any other low tax state team would have the cap room to do it either.

I most certainly see your point Avco --and it's a good one, and a difficult situation for the Jets.

The Jets would have to aquire a hi- priced defenceman to make this work- like the PK Subban trade for Webber ( Nashville-Montreal)

Do you not agree with me Avco ??? that Trouba is trying to "force a trade here" ???

 

[Aavco Cup]

I most certainly see your point Avco- and it's a good one, and makes for a more difficult situation for the Jets.

In order to do this the Jet's would have to trade for a "high priced" defenceman in order to make this work.-- like the PK Subban / Webber trade ( good example)

Do you not agree with me Avco--that Trouba is trying to "force a trade here" ???

No not at all. I haven't changed my thinking.

I still believe.

1) Trouba completes his contract.
2)Trouba files for arbitration
3) Trouba signs a lucrative long term contract prior to the arb hearing.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

@ps241

100% agree what I would propose is we keep the PHA line together as is but drop down either Little or Scheifele once in a while to double shift them so MP and Army can get their 5v5 minutes up a bit and we can keep Hendricks 5v5 time as is. If they did this once per period it would be more than enough.

That's an interesting and probably viable idea. If Maurice is not going to make changes to the first or third line, this could be the way to go. Otherwise, we don't have a roster change that we could pull off to get Perreault and Armia to play more minutes.

This idea is pretty brilliant. Pro teams generally don't do this outside of benching players, injuries etc... but it could work really well. Give MP and Armia 3 or 4 shifts a game with Scheif or Little and it's like we all of a sudden have 3 top 6 lines (potentially).

Either way MP and Armia are currently playing in a way that demands more minutes. I think Hendricks can be most effective when used in limited fashion. It keeps him fresher and faster (he can't afford to get slower) and he can still contribute on PK and in cases where we are rolling 4 lines because we are protecting bigger leads. This idea increases the chance of us having those bigger leads.

Nice problems to have.
Remember when we were trying to rely on Mittens to score goals????

 

[GNP]

No not at all. I haven't changed my thinking.

I still believe.

1) Trouba completes his contract.
2)Trouba files for arbitration
3) Trouba signs a lucrative long term contract prior to the arb hearing.

Well I disagree- if he is intending to file for arbitration- he's doing a very poor job performance wise, to increase his bargaining power at the arbitration table.-right??

The answer will lie, in how he's playing over the next 20-30 games. If he's playing like he is right now- "he's definitley trying to force a trade" We will see what happens.

Only other reason would be a "bad injury" ( doubt that) or some psychological issue going on with him right now.

 

[jefferoni]

But who counts, eh?

It was a real battle for me. I used a lot of substitutes. Took a year until I was able to wean off of them but after the first week I never wanted to smoke again. I just wish I had quit 30 years sooner. No wait, make that 45 years. Still get an occasional random little craving. Comes and goes in seconds, almost nostalgic.

May 4, 2011 for me (yeah, "may the fourth be with you"... hokey, I know). Did it cold turkey after smoking for 35 years. I watched a video by Allen Carr that explained the science behind smoking and how your body and mind react during quitting. I found it easier to deal with quitting by knowing exactly what to expect.

Good luck to you, LucianoBorsato... believe it or not, the hard part is over... it only gets easier now!

P.S. (to avoid being totally OT)... I'm loving our Jets right now. They seem to be showing maturity by sticking to their gameplan regardless of the score. I've followed and supported the Winnipeg Jets since the WHA days (heck, back in '75 I was an usher and popcorn seller in the old arena) and I can honestly say that I'm more optimistic about this team now than I've ever been about any previous Jets team.

P.P.S. Our chances of making the playoffs are now 85.5%! wooot!!!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

if the Jets lose the seventh game of the Stanley cup final series, the critics on here will feel vindicated. it says a lot about them and their motivations really.

Bit of hyperbole here I think. There are valid criticisms in spite of the winning record. I think some of them are being overstated - especially in the winning context. But they are valid. That doesn't mean they are correct. It means there is enough there to warrant looking at them.

Its a good thing that the returns of Lowry and MP have jump-started our bottom 6 because our top 6 is not doing much recently. Should changes be made? Or should it just be waited out? Questions worth discussing.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Well I disagree- if he is intending to file for arbitration- he's doing a very poor job performance wise, to increase his bargaining power at the arbitration table.-right??

The answer will lie, in how he's playing over the next 20-30 games. If he's playing like he is right now- "he's definitley trying to force a trade" We will see what happens.

Only other reason would be a "bad injury" ( doubt that) or some psychological issue going on with him right now.

His on ice performance is not tied to his intentions regarding his contract. Why would that be the case?

 

[10Ducky10]

Well I disagree- if he is intending to file for arbitration- he's doing a very poor job performance wise, to increase his bargaining power at the arbitration table.-right??

The answer will lie, in how he's playing over the next 20-30 games. If he's playing like he is right now- "he's definitley trying to force a trade" We will see what happens.

Only other reason would be a "bad injury" ( doubt that) or some psychological issue going on with him right now.

If y ou dont' think Trouba will file for arbitration, I have nothing else to say.
I think he is nursing an injury.Along with Lowry, MP and someone else I can't remember, he missed a practice about a week or so ago...anyone know why?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jets' bottom 6 were really outstanding.

A lot of that is a result of putting 1 top 6 winger on the 4th line. Didn't work nearly that well when PMo put Perreault on the 4th line last year but different linemates that time.

I think Tanev's speed + hard work is contributing also. A little ketchup with my crow. I was right about him last year but quite wrong this off-season. He is earning his spot on the roster the old-fashioned way.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I blame some of this on a two referee system. When you have one ref like is soccer it’s easier to get consistency because one ref can call a game the way he wants to. Are we going to let the teams play or reel them all in and call it tight type scenario. When you have two refs they can each call the same game differently one guy can let them play while the other guy wants to be more letter of the law and that leads to an inconsistent **** show.

But the 2nd ref was brought in as a progressive move because the one ref was missing too much. What's the solution? Make one of the 2 the head ref and he can tell the 2nd ref how to call a game? IDK, it isn't easy.

I hate to subscribe to any of the conspiracy theories but anecdotally they seem to have some substance. I prefer to think of complaining about officiating as whining by losers and that it all evens out. I'm beginning to question that though.

 

[Aavco Cup]

If y ou dont' think Trouba will file for arbitration, I have nothing else to say.

Would be interesting for sure and take away a lot of his leverage. He would then be left with threateneing to sit out the season again. No way Chevy signs him to a one or two year deal this time round.