Post-Game Talk: Jets 4 - Canucks 2

[JetsUK]

I wonder how many points Morgan Barron would have if he had Perfetti’s usage this year….

To be fair, quite a few here have been advocating for Barron to get a chance higher up the lineup to see what he can do there.

Instead, we got Iafallo, who is a great forechecker and pressure player but also a guy who lacks a scoring touch.

I'm a big fan of Barron, and think he can be a very useful digger and shooter on a skill line. But quite a lot of his scoring comes off of turnovers and rushes and while I think he's a high-value player for the Jets, he isn't putting up points at the level of a Perfetti, IMO, even with second (and 4th) line minutes.

Which is fine. Both kinds of player can be important parts of a winning team, and the Jets are lucky enough to have both.

I don't really have a bone to pick here. Perfetti will be back next season and I think he'll be better still. But I agree with many here that roster balance is a feature of all winning teams -- I like Names' game a lot, but I wouldn't want a team full of Names-like players. He also isn't a prototypical old skool 4th liner, since he brings real smarts and skill to the table. FWIW, I see Gus in that mold also -- low-event guy who is always doing a lot right. I think he's a better player than Iafallo, who is much more of a "always busy, sometimes effective" guy who is nonetheless a solid checker/ energy guy, and a whole lot better than the crap we ran for too long.

Agree with @surixon that Perfetti's D game is a strength, not a weakness and has been for a while. That's a situation where numbers are really helpful, because it's easy to see small = weak, contact-shy, easily intimidated off the puck and won't go in the dirty areas, def. But he ain't.

Again, Stats was a slower, smaller guy who had the career he had because of his vision and smarts -- he was where he needed to be at the right time and had a sneaky mean streak. I have complete faith that Cole will get there.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

The challenge is that you're cherry picking data just to support your perfetti crusade

The winning teams didn't have 'finesse' scoring fourth lines... they are formerly scoring vets and/or grit/character guys who have speed to forecheck.

Every team that wins has a hard hitting fourth line - one that is sent out to wear out the other team... you can dream that Tampa Bay had some magical scoring fourth line - but they didn't.


You've got two guys on there that are 175-180lbs.. Bones will end up benching them in a hard game

He's not cherry picking data. I challenge you to find any kind of data that says Gus/Barron are better players than Perfetti.

People think they are a better fit for a 4th line under Bones. Fine. I disagree completely, but I can at least understand you think that playing worse players who play a certain way is better than playing better players who play a different type of game.

IMO a 4th line of Barron/Iafallo - Names - Perfetti (whatever wings they play) is better than not having Perfetti there. Even if it is not a 'physical 4th line'. Plenty of teams won with skill all throughout the lineup. We will still have Lowry/Appleton/Niederreiter/Iaffalo as physical players. We still have size on defense.

 

[Jets 31]

Don't question an NHL headcoach with decades of experience! No Questioning!

I'm not saying that at all what i am saying is how much better would we be with another coach? I don't think any better than the great season we just had. So what we want is a young coach that plays all of our young players and we win the Cup ? I'm all for it if there is that said coach out there.

 

[WolfHouse]

He's not cherry picking data. I challenge you to find any kind of data that says Gus/Barron are better players than Perfetti.

People think they are a better fit for a 4th line under Bones. Fine. I disagree completely, but I can at least understand you think that playing worse players who play a certain way is better than playing better players who play a different type of game.

IMO a 4th line of Barron/Iafallo - Names - Perfetti (whatever wings they play) is better than not having Perfetti there. Even if it is not a 'physical 4th line'. Plenty of teams won with skill all throughout the lineup. We will still have Lowry/Appleton/Niederreiter/Iaffalo as physical players. We still have size on defense.

Ive said for a long time that Perfetti should be our 7th forward for the top six and Gus/Barron our 7th forwards for bottom six.

It's not 'me' saying it - its Bowness system... he needs a speed forecheck on the fourth line and Perfetti doesn't provide that. The end... guys just want to force him in because we read stats and see 19 goals.

Bowness has scoring 1, scoring 2, checking and energy line. Why would you force players into roles that they don't fit - just to keep the perfetti fanboys happy?

Barron is 6'4 220 - you need someone like that on the fourth - we already have Ehlers, Connor, Toffoli, Vilardi doing what Perfetti offers... just rest the guy in case theres an injury. This whole convo is ridiculous.

 

[surixon]

But the way the line is designed they are great defensively and are designed to fill the role. Whether they get used in that role is a different story, but, I’d rather see Barron and names paired up against the other team’s top or second line than schief and kc.
The way bottom line isn’t used does it matter if Gus gets the 3 minutes a game or perfetti?

That's fair and one way to do it bit it isn't the only way. That's all I'm trying to say. Also it's not like that fourth line combination has been that amazing for us.

On the Jets, that job is for Lowry's line. They're not gonna win the match ups vs other top teams lines, but it should create softer match ups for schief and monahan

BUT that leaves the 4th line. What kind of line do ypu want it to be? How will it be deployed? What happens of it does end up vs other teams top lines for a shift or two?

We definitely have the skill to run a "skilled light 4th" with Cole Names Iafallo but I'm not sure how you deploy that. If another team runs a big, quick heavy unskilled 4th, we could get hemmed in. I really don't know

That could happen, or they could take advantage of the skill gap and give us a big edge. My whole argument is based on having a team that is more fluid in it's thinking. If you need more grit in certain situations with certain matchups then do it. If more skill is required to get an edge then do it.

I just find and have found for a while that this org is very rigid in terms of roles. Top 6 scores, third line checks and fourth line grinds. I feel that this really only works when you have enough specialized pieces like we have had this year and 2018. When we haven't had those pieces this team has performed below expectations trying to force this rigid view instead of trying to adapt to what they had.

Maybe I'm not doing a great job explaining. I'm not pro skill, nor am i anti defense and grit. I'm pro balance. Josh Morrissey is my favorite Jet and he perfectly encompasses my ideals. He's excellent both offensively and defensively. The teams that have won multiple cups have largely been lead by those types; Toews and Keith in Chicago, Kopitar and Doughty in LA, Crosby and Letang in Pittsburgh, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg in Detroit. Even in Tampa they built balanced lines. They didn't just stock skill in the top 6 and defense and grit in the bottom 6. They had grit and defense in the top 6 in Killorn and Cirelli. They also had skill in the bottom 6 with Johnson and Gourde.

To me balance is having balanced players with balanced lines. I fond the Jets take a much more specialized approach to roster construction. Hopefully it pays off with another long run this year.

 

[Buffdog]

That's fair and one way to do it bit it isn't the only way. That's all I'm trying to say. Also it's not like that fourth line combination has been that amazing for us.

That could happen, or they could take advantage of the skill gap and give us a big edge. My whole argument is based on having a team that is more fluid in it's thinking. If you need more grit in certain situations with certain matchups then do it. If more skill is required to get an edge then do it.

I just find and have found for a while that this org is very rigid in terms of roles. Top 6 scores, third line checks and fourth line grinds. I feel that this really only works when you have enough specialized pieces like we have had this year and 2018. When we haven't had those pieces this team has performed below expectations trying to force this rigid view instead of trying to adapt to what they had.

Maybe I'm not doing a great job explaining. I'm not pro skill, nor am i anti defense and grit. I'm pro balance. Josh Morrissey is my favorite Jet and he perfectly encompasses my ideals. He's excellent both offensively and defensively. The teams that have won multiple cups have largely been lead by those types; Toews and Keith in Chicago, Kopitar and Doughty in LA, Crosby and Letang in Pittsburgh, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg in Detroit. Even in Tampa they built balanced lines. They didn't just stock skill in the top 6 and defense and grit in the bottom 6. They had grit and defense in the top 6 in Killorn and Cirelli. They also had skill in the bottom 6 with Johnson and Gourde.

To me balance is having balanced players with balanced lines. I fond the Jets take a much more specialized approach to roster construction. Hopefully it pays off with another long run this year.

Your opinion on this is mine as well

As for the rigidity, the only thing I can think of is that in terms of attracting talent, maybe that line up is easier to find players to fin into. 4th liners and guys like Appleton are a lot easier to come by than talented guys that fit into the fluid team you're trying to assemble. It makes it awkward for high end prospects though.

Beats me

 

[surixon]

Your opinion on this is mine as well

As for the rigidity, the only thing I can think of is that in terms of attracting talent, maybe that line up is easier to find players to fin into. 4th liners and guys like Appleton are a lot easier to come by than talented guys that fit into the fluid team you're trying to assemble. It makes it awkward for high end prospects though.

Beats me

Very well could be. I think over the years we've had a number of opportunities to try some different things but they haven't been taken ot for whatever reason. Would love to actually have this conversation with Chevy to see what his rationale is.

 

[MardyBum]

So close JFresh

 

[Jets 31]

I like Perfetti and think he will be a good player and also a really good depth piece if we get a injury in the top six but we just won 8 games in a row down the stretch against some very good teams without Perfetti in the lineup so I'm ok with this lineup going into the playoffs, better than ok actually.

 

[surixon]

I like Perfetti and think he will be a good player and also a really good depth piece if we get a injury in the top six but we just won 8 games in a row down the stretch against some very good teams without Perfetti in the lineup so I'm ok with this lineup going into the playoffs, better than ok actually.

? Perfetti was in the lineup for 5 of those wins. Him getting back in the lineup and posting 3 points was big in terms of the team ending its 6 game losing streak.

 

[DRW204]

So close JFresh

bu bu but No OnE hAd Us aS a PlAyOfF tEaM

 

[Jets 31]

? Perfetti was in the lineup for 6 of those wins. Him getting back in the lineup and posting 3 points was big in terms of the team ending its 6 game losing streak.

He last played on the 9th so he missed 3 games in a row before last night. So i was wrong sorry. He was in the lineup for 5 .

 

[Gm0ney]

bu bu but No OnE hAd Us aS a PlAyOfF tEaM

For the fully stats-based predictive models, if the playoff cutoff is 95 points, they were 6/6 on saying the Jets were a playoff team.

Eye test ("Voting avg" based on a Twitter fan vote): worst prediction -22 points. This may have been due to Montreal fans coping about PLD ("The Jets woulda been a lot better off with Gallagher and Dvorak!").

Bet365 (which I believe is influenced by betting sentiment - e.g. eye test): 2nd worst -18 points.

 

[DRW204]

For the fully stats-based predictive models, if the playoff cutoff is 95 points, they were 6/6 on saying the Jets were a playoff team.

Eye test ("Voting avg" based on a Twitter fan vote): worst prediction -22 points. This may have been due to Montreal fans coping about PLD ("The Jets woulda been a lot better off with Gallagher and Dvorak!").

Bet365 (which I believe is influenced by betting sentiment - e.g. eye test): 2nd worst -18 points.

View attachment 855301

thanks for the summary. i had tried keeping track of all the prediction models in the Central Division Prediction thread, but this is much cleaner. clearly, lots of the popular stats-based folks had us as a PO team.

i think their projected league rank may be better, since the top-end of team standing points appears to be really depressed.

 

[Jets 31]

52-24-6 for 110 points good enough for 4th overall in the entire NHL . Those are the numbers i like the most.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Win or lose in playoffs this was one of the most enjoyable years of hockey

I'd like to be able to say a first rd exit would ruin it (because that would mean we should be almost certain of a win). But I can't. Sort of another version of a good problem to have. We are going to have a tough series and it could go either way. Win or lose I will be happy as long as the Jets show up for all games. It has (mostly) been a very enjoyable season that doesn't need PO success to validate it. I say mostly because there was a stretch that activated my PTSD from last year. Looked like another second half season collapse. But this time, they managed to recover so it was just a mid-season slump.

Long winded way of saying I agree with you.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Really fun game and I was impressed by Lamberts two way play (he had a few great defensive stick plays) and Chibs goal and feistiness.

Nice to see Larry Bro finish an unbelievable season for him on a high note.

Monahan line was good again. Kupari just needs to simplify his game and quit trying to do too much.

Awesome season and I am jacked to start these playoffs

I was thinking about Kupari as I watched last night. So much potential. So little to show for it. I was pondering what coaching might do for him in the off-season. Does he need to hire himself a guru? Can the coaches work with him enough in TC?

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Ive said for a long time that Perfetti should be our 7th forward for the top six and Gus/Barron our 7th forwards for bottom six.

It's not 'me' saying it - its Bowness system... he needs a speed forecheck on the fourth line and Perfetti doesn't provide that. The end... guys just want to force him in because we read stats and see 19 goals.

Bowness has scoring 1, scoring 2, checking and energy line. Why would you force players into roles that they don't fit - just to keep the perfetti fanboys happy?

Barron is 6'4 220 - you need someone like that on the fourth - we already have Ehlers, Connor, Toffoli, Vilardi doing what Perfetti offers... just rest the guy in case theres an injury. This whole convo is ridiculous.

Needing an exact 'speed forecheck line' is my problem with it. If a line has better players and better results but isn't a 'speed forecheck line', why can't we do that instead? Does Bones whole system when the other 3 lines are on the ice fall apart because the 4th line isn't hitting quite as much?

This convo isn't ridiculous at all. Sitting Perfetti with no conversation is far more ridiculous than talking about it.

Anyway, I've said my piece here. Just wanted to provide Surixon with some support because felt like he was being ganged up on in here for having a different opinion.

I'll be cheering my tail off for the Jets on Sunday.

 

[Jets 31]

Needing an exact 'speed forecheck line' is my problem with it. If a line has better players and better results but isn't a 'speed forecheck line', why can't we do that instead? Does Bones whole system when the other 3 lines are on the ice fall apart because the 4th line isn't hitting quite as much?

This convo isn't ridiculous at all. Sitting Perfetti with no conversation is far more ridiculous than talking about it.

Anyway, I've said my piece here. Just wanted to provide Surixon with some support because felt like he was being ganged up on in here for having a different opinion.

I'll be cheering my tail off for the Jets on Sunday.

I don't care who is in or out of the lineup as long as we are playing well and winning games. Apparently we don't need Scheifele , Connor , Morrissey, Lowry ,Dillon or Helly in the lineup to win either going by last night.

 

[WolfHouse]

Needing an exact 'speed forecheck line' is my problem with it. If a line has better players and better results but isn't a 'speed forecheck line', why can't we do that instead? Does Bones whole system when the other 3 lines are on the ice fall apart because the 4th line isn't hitting quite as much?

This convo isn't ridiculous at all. Sitting Perfetti with no conversation is far more ridiculous than talking about it.

Anyway, I've said my piece here. Just wanted to provide Surixon with some support because felt like he was being ganged up on in here for having a different opinion.

I'll be cheering my tail off for the Jets on Sunday.

No he was ganged up on for spending an entire season taking shots at Bowness... the same guy that just led us to the Jennings and 110 points.

The answer for Bones' system is in a word 'yes' - it does start faltering if you don't have speed on that 4th line... AJF, Gus, Barron, even Toninato... all these guys know their role to cycle the puck deep and wreak havoc with the oppositions top lines

It's clear that Bones wants the fourth line to pin the opposition in their end - and then maybe get some dirty goals as a bonus. Then the first line comes on to take advantage and score the goal.

That's it - maybe its not how I'd run a team if I got to be armchair coach for a season but its the system that got us here.

Crying about Perfetti sitting because he has 20 goals... when a 30 goal scorer is replacing him is ridiculous. Apples, Barron, Iafallo, Names, etc are all on our PK... and all shutdown guys - Perfetti doesn't have the size to do that in the playoffs and he doesn't have the savvy to be a Marchand...

He's 22... the rest of the team is 24-25 and up. To bark that Perfetti is somehow going to call his agent in the offseason is straight up lunacy... he's in our top six next year - definitely not at C even though that delusion still exists on here... but he's there.

I don't care who is in or out of the lineup as long as we are playing well and winning games. Apparently we don't need Scheifele , Connor , Morrissey, Lowry ,Dillon or Helly in the lineup to win either going by last night.

Like Lambert comes in and looks like he belongs as an NHL centre and the following conversation is multiple pages of Bowness' is incompetent because Perfetti is scratched. The offseason nuthouse is starting early.

 

[10Ducky10]

That incompetent coach has us in 4th place overall and playing the best hockey Jets 2.0 has played.

 

[WpgSteve]

I think Bowness will be quick to scratch guys and shuffle the line up if we play bad. My guess is Perfetti slots in at some point when we run into adversity.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

This convo isn't ridiculous at all. Sitting Perfetti with no conversation is far more ridiculous than talking about it.

There's definitely a conversation to be had about it. I think the issue people are having is that post-game threads become Perfetti threads (for and against) driven by a few folks. There are player threads specifically set up for just this type of discussion.

There's lots of things we could be talking about from last night, but here we are.

My two cents on it.

 

[Jets 31]

I think Bowness will be quick to scratch guys and shuffle the line up if we play bad. My guess is Perfetti slots in at some point when we run into adversity.

Or a injury.

 

[WolfHouse]

There's definitely a conversation to be had about it. I think the issue people are having is that post-game threads become Perfetti threads (for and against) driven by a few folks. There are player threads specifically set up for just this type of discussion.

There's lots of things we could be talking about from last night, but here we are.

My two cents on it.

We're heading into a playoffs where if Jomo or Scheif get injured, its not an utter and complete catastrophe... we've never had that.

Helle and Bross are on fire. Getting scoring from the bottom six again. Seems to be total buy-in. Suddenly Stanley is an NHLer - Samberg is a 2nd pair - Miller looked solid. Our biggest problem is that Toffoli is 'slow' yet he has 4 points in the last 5.