Post-Game Talk: Jets 4 - Canucks 2

[Jets 31]

The mean Cole prevents better then most on the team in terms of actual and metrics. He just doesn't do it the same way.

But I digress, it seems all I get is flack for my views.

Anyhow go Jets go, I hope they crush the Avs.

Most of your views are fine , better than fine actually, i just think the infatuation with Perfetti is a little over the top. I noticed that you didn't post much since Perfetti was pulled from the lineup, now you could have been too busy to post but sometimes it seems like you like Perfetti better than the Winnipeg Jets. Keep posting because you have good thoughts .

 

[Jet]

Yup. A busy player but no substance to his game.

Yet I feel like he's been unlucky a few times and could have at least a few goals/ points. I'm disappointed for him and I think he'll be in tough to Crack this lineup going forward especially with what we're seeing from the youngins behind him.

Next tc is going to be massive for him.

Talking about Cole's usage in this game is one thing, talking about whether he is disgruntled, wants out of winnipeg and what his agent is scheming and other conspiracy theories belongs in his own thread and not a PGT.

Yes so I can summarily put that thread on ignore.

 

[jungles]

I just don't understand the "f*** the metrics" attitude. All the metrics do is show what a player has ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISHED with his time on the ice in a more meaningful and reliable way than the old eye test. Nobody anywhere is claiming that switching a couple players gives us a 10 or 15% better chance of winning any given game or series. Hockey is pretty damn close to a coin flip game most of the time...all you're trying to do is increase your odds by fractions of a percent. But whatever...feel free to run around pointing and yelling "nerrrrrrrrrrds!!!!" all you want lol.

Serious question. Did James Wright have good metrics? Because if he did I would push back on the phrase "actually accomplished".

 

[SensibleGuy]

Serious question. Did James Wright have good metrics? Because if he did I would push back on the phrase "actually accomplished".

I have no idea.
It's easy to say "such and such a team of good metrics players got swept because they didn't have enough guys to do the dirty work" but what if they got swept because they got swept? What if it's just one team getting hot for a series and sweeping them? Maybe the good metrics team wins 58 out of 100 games against that dirty workers team instead of 55...if a guy doing the dirty work ends up with the puck in his D zone more than the guy with the good metrics, what is the real value of his dirty work?

 

[surixon]

f*** the 'metrics'. To me, that just underlines how flawed they are. It's also more than simply prevention, it's forecheck pressure, physicality, wearing teams down with the cycle, disrupting breakouts and a host of other things that aren't glamorous but are hugely important in terms of momentum.

Also, never stop pushing your opinions, we need all sides on this board to make it interesting

It's why I also said actual numbers as I know you don't care much for metrics. Actual goals against 1.81 per 60 for Perfetti and 1.84 for Gus. So you aren't losing anything if the goal is to prevent as you said.

At the end of the day hockey is about outscoring and imo it's depth scoring in the playoffs that ultimately lead teams to cups.

 

[Potrzebie]

Bleacher Report had this gem from October 2021 - Analyzing Every NHL Teams Worst Contract:

Winnipeg Jets: Josh Morrissey​

32 OF 32

1. 
   
   
   
   Chris Carlson/Associated Press
   Year Signed: 2019
   Seasons Remaining: Seven
   Cap Hit: $6.25 million
   Eight years is a long time to figure out exactly what kind player you have on your hands. That's essentially what the Winnipeg Jets committed to doing when they handed this $50 million pact to Josh Morrissey.
   When he went from skating with Jacob Trouba to being asked to haul around random replacement-level defenders, his on-ice contributions took a massive hit. While his cap hit doesn't suggest that he should be a No. 1 blueliner, it does imply that he should be a strong No. 2.
   Is that what the Jets have here?
   After beefing up their backend over the summer, Winnipeg will have its answer by this time next year. As of now, though, Morrissey has been routinely crushed by his tough assignments. While we feel for him because of the various situations he's been placed in, the truth is that he simply hasn't been up to the tasks at hand.
   
   
   https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2949585-analyzing-every-nhl-teams-worst-contract

So......The "experts" were wrong. Who would have thunk it?!?!

Bleacher Report is basically fan fiction. I wouldn't consider anyone who "writes" for them an expert

 

[Jet]

I just don't understand the "f*** the metrics" attitude. All the metrics do is show what a player has ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISHED with his time on the ice in a more meaningful and reliable way than the old eye test. Nobody anywhere is claiming that switching a couple players gives us a 10 or 15% better chance of winning any given game or series. Hockey is pretty damn close to a coin flip game most of the time...all you're trying to do is increase your odds by fractions of a percent. But whatever...feel free to run around pointing and yelling "nerrrrrrrrrrds!!!!" all you want lol.

I say f*** the metrics because I don't trust the science behind many of the metrics. Keep in mind that data and metrics are different things.

The collection of some metrics used are subjectively compiled with I have a real issue with. Additionally, hockey is not an ideal sport for metrics like this simply due to the chaotic nature of the games and incredibly diverse set of inputs.

Then you add in the way people cherry pick and selectively use metrics to support a narrative and, yeah, f*** the metrics.

Just so you know, I am not a data scientist but the industry in in relies heavily on data and metrics. I've seen first hand issues with data collection, scientific purity of metrics and manipulation of both to tell a story.

 

[SensibleGuy]

I say f*** the metrics because I don't trust the science behind many of the metrics. Keep in mind that data and metrics are different things.

The collection of some metrics used are subjectively compiled with I have a real issue with. Additionally, hockey is not an ideal sport for metrics like this simply due to the chaotic nature of the games and incredibly diverse set of inputs.

Then you add in the way people cherry pick and selectively use metrics to support a narrative and, yeah, f*** the metrics.

Just so you know, I am not a data scientist but the industry in in relies heavily on data and metrics. I've seen first hand issues with data collection, scientific purity of metrics and manipulation of both to tell a story.

so you're saying you haven't seen manipulation of the eye test to tell a story?

 

[Jet]

It's why I also said actual numbers as I know you don't care much for metrics. Actual goals against 1.81 per 60 for Perfetti and 1.84 for Gus. So you aren't losing anything if the goal is to prevent as you said.

At the end of the day hockey is about outscoring and imo it's depth scoring in the playoffs that ultimately lead teams to cups.

Ok that's fine but especially with the sample size and the incredibly unsterile nature of the environment how much stock can you put on that?

Additionally, a lot of the things that gus does are not measured or coveted.

PS, I wouldn't have Gus in over Petfetti.

 

[TS Quint]

#BONES 4 JACK ADAMS!

An absolutely amazing job as a Head Coach on every level. He got a group of player who on these boards thought were an impossible group to lead and took them to 2nd in the West and 4th overall.

 

[Jet]

so you're saying you haven't seen manipulation of the eye test to tell a story?

Oh of course!!! We all have our bias. I may have done that a time or two as well

 

[Jets 31]

Go Jets Go.

 

[TS Quint]

I just don't understand the "f*** the metrics" attitude. All the metrics do is show what a player has ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISHED with his time on the ice in a more meaningful and reliable way than the old eye test. Nobody anywhere is claiming that switching a couple players gives us a 10 or 15% better chance of winning any given game or series. Hockey is pretty damn close to a coin flip game most of the time...all you're trying to do is increase your odds by fractions of a percent. But whatever...feel free to run around pointing and yelling "nerrrrrrrrrrds!!!!" all you want lol.

The problem is that the stats don’t explain why things are happening on the ice. Applying averages to specific players leaves a lot of room for error.

 

[Jets 31]

#BONES 4 JACK ADAMS!

An absolutely amazing job as a Head Coach on every level. He got a group of player who on these boards thought were an impossible group to lead and took them to 2nd in the West and 4th overall.

Absolutely agree.

 

[surixon]

Ok that's fine but especially with the sample size and the incredibly unsterile nature of the environment how much stock can you put on that?

Additionally, a lot of the things that gus does are not measured or coveted.

PS, I wouldn't have Gus in over Petfetti.

I believe that, but you could say the same about Cole. They are cut from the same cloth in that they rely on smarts, positioning and timing to make an impact without the puck.

I think the conversation morphed into who got in for Barron if he couldn't go on Sunday. I have no doubt Bones will play Morgan if he is able to go.

For positives, after being a bit disappointed with Monohan his first dozen games or so, he's really ratcheted it up and has been very good the last 15 or so. Still am very meh on Tyler, haven't felt he's brought much.

 

[ps241]

If I'm remembering correctly the love for Morrissey hasn't been universal on this site. Ever.

When he was drafted there were some that loved the pick and many that panned it.

He then spent the better part of two years before becoming an NHL regular and took quite a lot of heat from this board, many saying he was a bust.

He then came into the NHL and while not stellar, played as an excellent defensive partner with Trouba up until the latter abandoned ship, so to speak.

A rough year or two and he took a great deal more heat, less so from this board than around the league. His contract was by some listed as one of the ten worst contracts in the league. Then we found out that his father was fighting for his life against cancer, only to lose the battle. Not surprisingly that took a substantial toll on Josh.

The last couple of years he's been most excellent and has really come into his own. This board pretty universally loves him, but still relatively little respect around the league among other fanbases.

That is a really good recap buggs.

I will never forget the draft party at Shark Club when it seemed like Jets fans really wanted Max Domi and when the pick of Morrissey dropped there were draft papers thrown in the air and a mass exodus of fans that were pissed off..................so it began.

I will be honest I was less award of him but once I saw the video on draft night I really liked the pick.

I think he went back to PA for two full seasons, then he played a full season in the AHL. He started with the Jets in his draft +4 season. The only going knock on him was size and "its taking too long, and I don't think he will make it".

The good news is his 1st season in the NHL was really good and he became a reliable top 4 defender almost immediately (if I recall correctly).

He did get hung out to dry when we turned over all our D core except him, then that was compounded by his fathers health issues. He certainly went through that worst contract in the NHL phase which was tough.

Speaking for myself, watching Josh grow into not only a clear cut #1 franchise defenseman, but also one of the top 10 in the league that is just outside Norris trophy finalist level in back to back seasons playing beside a guy like DeMelo has been amazing. There use to be that who is better Trouba or Morrissey and that is no longer a debate.

Couldn't have happened to a better guy either. f*** the haters on draft night and the doubters along the way. Seattle's imaginary loss is our gain.

 

[JetsUK]

Guys are gonna get banged up in the playoffs, having a 20 goal scorer ready to sub in is huge

Yep -- when was the last time a healthy 20-goal scorer was kept out of a PO lineup for the Jets (I'm mentally X-ing out Kevin Hayes, who was all but PB'd whilst still in the lineup)?

I've had Cole pencilled in as a Stats 2.0 for a while now (with a Gilmore Lite as an upper-echelon poss), and despite his travails this year, I still expect it.

Great to see Chibby and Lambo translating their AHL games to the bigs in their first evert attempt, and last night's scrappy but fun game reminded me of those runs a very young and very talented Jets team had in 2015-17. Sure, garbage time, but you could see what was on its way.

To have "what's on its way" alongside a 110 point, 4th place OA, Jennings-trophy winning team is pretty exciting.

And I hope the team and/or Helle invests a few $$ with a local trophymaker to get LB a Jennings of his own, with both names on it. I get that the 25 game rule was invented for mortal starters, but that award is every much LB's, whose high-end play in relief allowed for team momentum and Helle resets all season long. Good luck to him in his next starters/ tandem gig -- he deserves a real shot.

I hear you have a little snow there -- good time for an Avalanche, I suppose.

I believe that, but you could say the same about Cole. They are cut from the same cloth in that they rely on smarts, positioning and timing to make an impact without the puck.

I think the conversation morphed into who got in for Barron if he couldn't go on Sunday. I have no doubt Bones will play Morgan if he is able to go.

For positives, after being a bit disappointed with Monohan his first dozen games or so, he's really ratcheted it up and has been very good the last 15 or so. Still am very meh on Tyler, haven't felt he's brought much.

Toffoli is the same player he's always been -- only slower.

Not a great fit with the Jets' speed and aggression, but fine as another shooter who can clean up what Ehlers and Monahan create. Honestly anyone with some IQ and hands on that line is going to do fine in the Toffoli spot -- but glad we didn't spend a MTL second on him.

 

[SensibleGuy]

The problem is that the stats don’t explain why things are happening on the ice. Applying averages to specific players leaves a lot of room for error.

well, the goal is to try and find things that do explain why things are happening on the ice. The people working on analytics aren't dummies right? I mean we can come up with what we think might be issues with the metrics they are coming up with, but there's a pretty good chance they've already come up with those same issues and looked at them in relation to the metrics and determined the impact those issues may or may not have on the validity of a given metric. It's not like any of us here are the only people smart enough to think "hey you need guys willing to do the dirty work" to win.

 

[JetsUK]

So that's game 82. Helluva season. 8 game win streak to end it off. 2nd in the west. While I've been on board with critiquing some of Bones' decisions, tonight I want to embrace what we've accomplished with Bones at the helm.

One thing I want to call out is Morrissey's evolution under Bones. Even though Bones is known for a stifling defensive game overall, he also has a vision that every player on the ice is responsible for both defense and offense. The forwards need to think defensively. When they don't, we see what happens. But he also opened the floodgates for our D to step into an offensive role, because our forwards cover for them when they do. And Morrissey has gone from pretty f***ing good, to absolutely dominant under Bones. To whatever extent Bones as an old coach is a dinosaur or old skool, he also sees every player on the ice as part of a coehsive unit that scores goals and stops goals. And Morrissey, to both their credit, has become the player he was meant to be in that system.

Great post, agree on the Morenaissance. So promising as a young D, excellent as a D-first foil to Trouba's 1 RD, withered on the vine as a D-only last man back under Mo and until DD's arrival, and then had to play an hour a game as one of 1-3 above-replacement D during the Dark Years of D Plugs, with a revolving cast of fuhgedaboutits and Top Pair Beaulieu.

If Bones had done nothing else but help JMo unlock his Norrissey self, he'd go down as one of the most important coaches of Jets 2.0.

 

[Jet]

I believe that, but you could say the same about Cole. They are cut from the same cloth in that they rely on smarts, positioning and timing to make an impact without the puck.

I think the conversation morphed into who got in for Barron if he couldn't go on Sunday. I have no doubt Bones will play Morgan if he is able to go.

For positives, after being a bit disappointed with Monohan his first dozen games or so, he's really ratcheted it up and has been very good the last 15 or so. Still am very meh on Tyler, haven't felt he's brought much.

I just think about what exactly you want from your fourth line. I do think a line of Cole, Namestnikov and Iafallo can fulfil the objectives of the 4th line, albeit differently. They won't be as heavy as the alternative - so they might not wear the other team down as much, however, I don't think they hurt you defensively AND they have the added bonus of being a threat to score.

Moneyhands has been, well, money. People said he was slow and not good defensively, maybe they were getting their opinions of him from when his hips were giving him problems. I see a guy who's quick enough, with some pretty good puck-on-stick speed and is really defensively sound.

I think the Toffoli payoff is coming. His playoff experience I believe will come in to play and he might be a dark horse in terms of timely scoring for us.

well, the goal is to try and find things that do explain why things are happening on the ice. The people working on analytics aren't dummies right? I mean we can come up with what we think might be issues with the metrics they are coming up with, but there's a pretty good chance they've already come up with those same issues and looked at them in relation to the metrics and determined the impact those issues may or may not have on the validity of a given metric. It's not like any of us here are the only people smart enough to think "hey you need guys willing to do the dirty work" to win.

That all may very well be true, but we are totally blind as to the methodologies, credentials of those working on analytics, and any bias or lack of experience they may have. Additionally, the subjective nature of the inputs of some of these metrics in my mind is the biggest concern.

 

[Buffdog]

The mean Cole prevents better then most on the team in terms of actual and metrics. He just doesn't do it the same way.

But I digress, it seems all I get is flack for my views.

Anyhow go Jets go, I hope they crush the Avs.

OK, I'm not trying to be a dick (for a change), but of you didn't have numbers and metrics, how would ypu contrast Cole's game vs say Barron or Gus based soley on watching them play?


There are tons of little plays that don't end up anywhere on a stats sheet, including advanced metrics. Board battles that get pucks out (or keep pucks in) that lead to line changes, smart puck management in danger zones, etc. For bottom six guys (especially 4th line guys), that's the stuff that coaches want them to be elite at. It's not their job to score, it's to be dependable where they're out there

Those little things are examples of what Gus has been doing surprisingly well this season. That said, his strengths don't belong in the top six because their role is different

 

[Jet]

Great post, agree on the Morenaissance. So promising as a young D, excellent as a D-first foil to Trouba's 1 RD, withered on the vine as a D-only last man back under Mo and until DD's arrival, and then had to play an hour a game as one of 1-3 above-replacement D during the Dark Years of D Plugs, with a revolving cast of fuhgedaboutits and Top Pair Beaulieu.

If Bones had done nothing else but help JMo unlock his Norrissey self, he'd go down as one of the most important coaches of Jets 2.0.

I agree. Watching Josh play these past 2 seasons is an absolute marvel. I'll get flack for this, but I take him over Quinn Huges, because as dynamic as he is, I really do not see a weakness in Josh's game. He does it all, and at an elite level.

It's a f***ing shame that the Norris is a D scoring title trophy. It should be, as it's defined, the BEST defenseman.

I don't know why there aren't more trophies for D. There should be highest scoring, best defensive and overall best.

 

[SensibleGuy]

That all may very well be true, but we are totally blind as to the methodologies, credentials of those working on analytics, and any bias or lack of experience they may have. Additionally, the subjective nature of the inputs of some of these metrics in my mind is the biggest concern.

True enough I suppose. I still value the information and find it often quite interesting. Most of the teams have analytics people working for them. I'd imagine it's like any other thing - people who don't do good work generally don't get too far...although of course nothing in life is perfect.

 

[Jet]

True enough I suppose. I still value the information and find it often quite interesting. Most of the teams have analytics people working for them. I'd imagine it's like any other thing - people who don't do good work generally don't get too far...although of course nothing in life is perfect.

For the record - I don't think analytics are useless or total trash - I think there's some good things to learn from them, especially as sample size grows. I was probably a little provocative with the 'f*** metrics' comment so I totally understand your response

 

[SensibleGuy]

For the record - I don't think analytics are useless or total trash - I think there's some good things to learn from them, especially as sample size grows. I was probably a little provocative with the 'f*** metrics' comment so I totally understand your response

This discussion did not go the way internet discussions are supposed to go!