Player Discussion Jakub Lauko

Dr Hook

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that's the narrative, despite me always responding by stating that it is generally relative plus/minus and save percentage. your formulae might consider zone progress/loss, "quality" of others, penalty commit/draw rate, workload burden....measuring output, success, winning points. the narrative is outside of my grasp. assume it's unexplained whatever.

Okay then, in the spirit of openness, the issue has never been that you wouldn't say what you posted above, but answering how you are defining your terms, which is what you've never done. What is relative plus/minus? Relative to what? How are you defining 'quality' of others. or workload burden? Those things you have steadfastly refused to explain when asked. But maybe you could now? I and others would be interested in how exactly you are getting these ratings, especially in cases where they are far afield from any other analytic measures out there. Like having Mitchell our second most effective D man that is not injured.
 
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bruinsfan1968

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I don't want to get into the exact blend within the mix my numbers are made of, but you can think of it very basically as something quite like +/- ÷ 60 plotted on a US school grading system chart, where an even zero player is found around 75. a failing grade is 59 and lower, while extra credit happens above the mastery level at 100. a goalie is essentially his save percentage, maxing out at like 130. any player repping a negative number is a serious problem in the lineup. asterisks denote likely outliers (low minute totals). relativity is basically a view into if the team does better or worse with(out) them. for more than that, please make your own to lay bare first. I'm'a keep churning them out and I'm unlikely to stop trying to share them. Lauko has greatly improved since being a full-on minus player. if he is leveled off, that's not good enough. it kind of needs to be Lohrei back left, but front left has other fourth-line options.
Capfriendly now provides ratings for every player on an NHL team as well.
 

24giovanni

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because his touted improvement pretty much leveled off -- and needs to begin again -- Lauko's thread is getting these in-season player effectiveness grades again:

MAR 71 - COY 84 - PAS 94
DeB 90 - GEE 84 - HEI 103
van 77 - POI 78 - FRE 79
LAU 41 - BEE 49 - STE 84
LIN 90 - MIT 99
GRZ 69 - CAR 103
LOH 44 - SHA 64
SWA 96
ULL 88

ZAC 80 - BOQ 71* - BRO 70* - LUC 48*
FOR 105 - WOT 69* - McA 67
Bum, why all the abbreviations on the names. Just use numbers if it is too hard to spell full names..
 

Dr Hook

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Thanks for sharing at least a little bit @Bumper. I won't share my ratings because I don't have any- doing stuff like this on the creation side is just not my thing. I do like looking at what people have done along these lines especially when it contradicts what I believe I am seeing with my eyes (not that the eye test is always right, mind).

One last point/question: I am assuming by effectiveness you are measuring the player in that role and with that amount of ice time, linemates etc. and not measuring overall value to the team? To put it another way, you are not claiming Steen has been better than Marchand, for example, or are you?
 

MarchysNoseKnows

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it doesn't consider salary, but it does kind of say that they have gotten more from Steen than Marchand within this season. it does kind of say that Mitchell was recently better than McAvoy. Steen and Mitchell don't usually face top lines, so I attempt to curate a balance between where a top-liner slumps to versus where a bottom-feeder reaches. I absolutely love seeing the roles switched. I like to see LAU/ZAC/PAS as a first line and MAR/FRE/STE as a fourth. these numbers may be a relic to Julien days where he would tell Zevon to his face that Jeannie does not need a shooter. dipsy-do all you want in the awe-fencive zone -- my numbers are going to call you out for stacking minuses and affecting the demonstrable ability to operate efficiently within the currency of the sport.
Model aside, do you really think the Bruins have gotten more from Steen than Marchand this year?
 

Dr Hook

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Model aside, do you really think the Bruins have gotten more from Steen than Marchand this year?

That's why I was curious about how relative this all is, because I am pretty sure if you reversed roles and icetime, Marchand would give you far more on the fourth line, and Steen far less on line 1 or 2.
 

MarchysNoseKnows

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That's why I was curious about how relative this all is, because I am pretty sure if you reversed roles and icetime, Marchand would give you far more on the fourth line, and Steen far less on line 1 or 2.
I mean Steen has given you 1 point in 14 games
 
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Dr Hook

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I mean Steen has given you 1 point in 14 games

I could almost buy an argument from relativity, that the 4th line with Steen on it has been a better line for what it does and should do more consistently than a line that Marchand has been on, but I am struggling to see how that would translate into anything meaningful.
 

yazmybaby

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COLUMBUS, Ohio — Fourth liners often can get overlooked over the course of 60 minutes. They play fewer shifts and minutes than the top three lines.
Lately, Jakub Lauko is making it hard to miss him.
The Bruins left winger has been making the best of his fourth-line twirls over the last week-plus, using his quickness and fearlessness to win loose-puck chases and create opportunities.
Lauko is rounding into the form he flashed last year after getting derailed earlier this season. On Oct. 24 in Chicago, Lauko suffered a facial fracture and a nasty gash across the bridge of his nose when he was hit by a skate blade.

He returned to the lineup two weeks later with a full cage and has continued to wear it.

“I’m feeling good,” Lauko said Monday, a small scar near his left eyebrow the only remaining evidence of the horrific incident.

Lauko has been making his presence felt lately, playing like a confident puck hunter.


“Yeah, I started the season slow and just a little stretch before the injury and right after the injury, I kind of didn’t have many looks, I just didn’t feel confident on the puck,” said Lauko, who didn’t factor into the scoring in Monday night’s 5-2 loss to the Blue Jackets but had two assists over his previous three games. “I didn’t have much faith in my ability. So, the last few games I’m trying to be like, ‘OK, let’s forget about it and just try to play.’


“So, I think still there’s a lot of room for improvement, I’m not going to say there isn’t, but I feel a little bit better than I started the season and the first month, let’s say.”

Jim Montgomery has noticed an uptick in Lauko’s play.

“His speed, his ability to win foot races really, and win one-on-one battles,” said the coach, when asked what the second-year pro brings to his attack. “I think his game has really started to trend in the direction that we saw a lot of glimpses of last year and I think you can see he’s getting confident because he’s hanging onto pucks.”
Lauko cannot be sent down to the AHL without clearing waivers, so I guess he is here to stay for a while, until someone else can prove they deserve a chance on the 4th line. I can't see him getting more than 6-8 goals a year, and if Monty is fine with this, let him play.
 

MarchysNoseKnows

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I could almost buy an argument from relativity, that the 4th line with Steen on it has been a better line for what it does and should do more consistently than a line that Marchand has been on, but I am struggling to see how that would translate into anything meaningful.
While relative plus minus is used (not going to go deep into how effective that is as a metric), the numbers are nominal. So it’s not saying how Steen performed in his role - it’s literally saying Steen has been a better hockey player than Marchand for the Bruins this year.
 
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Dr Hook

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While relative plus minus is used (not going to go deep into how effective that is as a metric), the numbers are nominal. So it’s not saying how Steen performed in his role - it’s literally saying Steen has been a better hockey player than Marchand for the Bruins this year.

Well then that gets a downvote from me, because that is patently BS :laugh:
 
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Gee Wally

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Tomorrow’s Globe:


“When I was young,” said a smiling Jakub Lauko, age 23 and working on mysteries, figuring out the clues, “I got used to scoring goals, so … ”

The NHL life comes at players fast. One day, like Lauko, they are teenagers with a thick mop of curls, their draft number in hand, their futures boundless. The days in the journey that await look like an infinite string of oysters, each filled with a black pearl the shape of a puck.

A third-round pick (No. 77) in the 2018 draft, the eager and effervescent kid from Czechia spoke optimistically on draft day about making the Bruins’ roster in short order and proving to one and all he should have been a first- or second-round pick. It was not hubris. It was the confident, refreshing, somewhat reconfirming talk of an 18-year-old counting down the seconds to liftoff, ready to rocket his way to stardom.

What Lauko didn’t know then, and what he knows nearly six years later, is that success so often comes down to finding a fit. It appears he’s found it. With only 50-something games on his NHL career list, and with but six goals, he has reshaped his enthusiastic game into that of a speedy, bottom-six energy forward. He can forecheck. He can rattle the boards with frequent, solid hits. He can make his way as a critical support player.

As for goals, assists, and marquee standing, well …

“I kind of realized over the years that I am not as talented as the guys around me,” Lauko said the other day, following a workout on a trio that these days regularly puts him at left wing with Morgan Geekie at center and Trent Frederic at right wing. “So for me it was like making a change in how I play and how I want to play.”

As simple or basic as that might sound, such self-realizations can be tricky, elusive, sometimes impossible. The kids with speed and slick skills, frustrated when those oysters bear no pearls, often can’t recast their games and reset their career path. They stick around for a year or two, maybe sample life playing in Europe (see: Zach Senyshyn of the Wild Wings in Schwenningen, Germany) and by the age of 23, 25, 28, or maybe a little later, surrender their dream to a 9-to-5 life on dry land.

“I kind of realize, like, I cannot take Pasta’s place,” Lauko said, referring to David Pastrnak, he of 61 goals last season who is reporting this coming week to NHL All-Star festivities in Toronto. “Or I can’t take Marchy’s [Brad Marchand’s] place. They’re on a different skill level than me.”

What Lauko does bring, sometimes in big dollops, is abundant speed (right there with Jake DeBrusk) and the ability to hit consistently and with conviction. In recent wins over Colorado and Montreal, Lauko was the Bruins’ top hitter, collecting a total of 11 smacks. Prior to Saturday’s matinee in Philadelphia, he had 71 hits for the season, second on the team only to Frederic (84).

“Hey, I cannot pretend to be someone that I’m not,” said Lauko, recounting his moment of “self-realization” last season in Providence. “So it took me a longer time. I took a big look at my game and changed. I started at zero again and just changed it all the way.”

Lauko, said Montgomery, is a “great example” of a player willing to change attitude “and change how hard they are to play against.” That switch, he added, often can be the key to “hatching” their career.

“There are only so many top-six players in the world,” mused Montgomery, who has two of the best in Marchand and Pastrnak. “Everybody’s a top-six player when they get to the NHL. And the guys that stay are the guys that are no longer top-six players and can adjust and become third- and fourth-line players. It doesn’t matter who you talk about, they were all leading scorers or go-to players, playing 18-20 minutes a night prior to getting here.”

Montgomery, a prolific scorer in his days with the powerhouse University of Maine Black Bears, experienced limited success as an NHL stick carrier. He finished with 122 career games and 34 points in the NHL during a pro career that lasted 12 seasons.

His first NHL games with the Blues, Montgomery recalled recently, were spent on a grind line with Basil McRae, who by then had played more than 500 games in the league. The points weren’t coming for Montgomery. He was 24 years old, just a year older than Lauko is today, and those early days were an immediate revelation for the former Maine star.


“It’s hard sometimes,” mused Montgomery, reflecting on the NHL reality that hits most players. “Like the best line ever, after a week of playing with [McRae], I’m like, ‘Man, this is a lot different — you know, in college, I played first power play.’ And he said, ‘I played first power play in junior, too.’ ”

Some 30 years later, Montgomery got a big laugh out of that memory.

“This league,” he said, “it humbles you.”

Or, for those like Lauko, who “got used to scoring goals” in his youth, it can become a master class in self-assessment and adaptation.

“It took me longer,” he said, “but I am just happy where I am right now.”
 

Hookslide

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Tomorrow’s Globe:


“When I was young,” said a smiling Jakub Lauko, age 23 and working on mysteries, figuring out the clues, “I got used to scoring goals, so … ”

The NHL life comes at players fast. One day, like Lauko, they are teenagers with a thick mop of curls, their draft number in hand, their futures boundless. The days in the journey that await look like an infinite string of oysters, each filled with a black pearl the shape of a puck.

A third-round pick (No. 77) in the 2018 draft, the eager and effervescent kid from Czechia spoke optimistically on draft day about making the Bruins’ roster in short order and proving to one and all he should have been a first- or second-round pick. It was not hubris. It was the confident, refreshing, somewhat reconfirming talk of an 18-year-old counting down the seconds to liftoff, ready to rocket his way to stardom.

What Lauko didn’t know then, and what he knows nearly six years later, is that success so often comes down to finding a fit. It appears he’s found it. With only 50-something games on his NHL career list, and with but six goals, he has reshaped his enthusiastic game into that of a speedy, bottom-six energy forward. He can forecheck. He can rattle the boards with frequent, solid hits. He can make his way as a critical support player.

As for goals, assists, and marquee standing, well …

“I kind of realized over the years that I am not as talented as the guys around me,” Lauko said the other day, following a workout on a trio that these days regularly puts him at left wing with Morgan Geekie at center and Trent Frederic at right wing. “So for me it was like making a change in how I play and how I want to play.”

As simple or basic as that might sound, such self-realizations can be tricky, elusive, sometimes impossible. The kids with speed and slick skills, frustrated when those oysters bear no pearls, often can’t recast their games and reset their career path. They stick around for a year or two, maybe sample life playing in Europe (see: Zach Senyshyn of the Wild Wings in Schwenningen, Germany) and by the age of 23, 25, 28, or maybe a little later, surrender their dream to a 9-to-5 life on dry land.

“I kind of realize, like, I cannot take Pasta’s place,” Lauko said, referring to David Pastrnak, he of 61 goals last season who is reporting this coming week to NHL All-Star festivities in Toronto. “Or I can’t take Marchy’s [Brad Marchand’s] place. They’re on a different skill level than me.”

What Lauko does bring, sometimes in big dollops, is abundant speed (right there with Jake DeBrusk) and the ability to hit consistently and with conviction. In recent wins over Colorado and Montreal, Lauko was the Bruins’ top hitter, collecting a total of 11 smacks. Prior to Saturday’s matinee in Philadelphia, he had 71 hits for the season, second on the team only to Frederic (84).

“Hey, I cannot pretend to be someone that I’m not,” said Lauko, recounting his moment of “self-realization” last season in Providence. “So it took me a longer time. I took a big look at my game and changed. I started at zero again and just changed it all the way.”

Lauko, said Montgomery, is a “great example” of a player willing to change attitude “and change how hard they are to play against.” That switch, he added, often can be the key to “hatching” their career.

“There are only so many top-six players in the world,” mused Montgomery, who has two of the best in Marchand and Pastrnak. “Everybody’s a top-six player when they get to the NHL. And the guys that stay are the guys that are no longer top-six players and can adjust and become third- and fourth-line players. It doesn’t matter who you talk about, they were all leading scorers or go-to players, playing 18-20 minutes a night prior to getting here.”

Montgomery, a prolific scorer in his days with the powerhouse University of Maine Black Bears, experienced limited success as an NHL stick carrier. He finished with 122 career games and 34 points in the NHL during a pro career that lasted 12 seasons.

His first NHL games with the Blues, Montgomery recalled recently, were spent on a grind line with Basil McRae, who by then had played more than 500 games in the league. The points weren’t coming for Montgomery. He was 24 years old, just a year older than Lauko is today, and those early days were an immediate revelation for the former Maine star.


“It’s hard sometimes,” mused Montgomery, reflecting on the NHL reality that hits most players. “Like the best line ever, after a week of playing with [McRae], I’m like, ‘Man, this is a lot different — you know, in college, I played first power play.’ And he said, ‘I played first power play in junior, too.’ ”

Some 30 years later, Montgomery got a big laugh out of that memory.

“This league,” he said, “it humbles you.”

Or, for those like Lauko, who “got used to scoring goals” in his youth, it can become a master class in self-assessment and adaptation.

“It took me longer,” he said, “but I am just happy where I am right now.”
Excellent read, that is the type of player every successful team needs..........
 
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I am Bettman

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NHL just adjusted a bunch of stats for the season, Lauko is now 25th in the league in hits per 60 mins. His production isn’t great this season, but I like that he is still finding ways to contribute.
 

Dr Hook

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I know some are bummed out by his lack of production, but there is a reason that Monty keeps him in the lineup these days: he brings something the Bruins need and not anyone else can do reliably or responsibly (we don't need Brad doing the Lauko thing). I wish he had more goals, but he has a really good shot, so I feel like it's a matter of time.
 
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Hookslide

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I know some are bummed out by his lack of production, but there is a reason that Monty keeps him in the lineup these days: he brings something the Bruins need and not anyone else can do reliably or responsibly (we don't need Brad doing the Lauko thing). I wish he had more goals, but he has a really good shot, so I feel like it's a matter of time.
You are right, give the kid sometime, he is doing what everyone was complaining about no one else was doing, using his body and sticking his nose in those uncomfortable places ..........
 

PB37

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He had an awful start IMO but his play has progressively gotten better as the season has gone on. I wish he could find a way to produce a few more points - he seems to have a decent shot.
 
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