Value of: Jakob Silfverberg at UFA next year

Discussion in 'Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk' started by mymerlincat, Sep 22, 2018.

  1. mymerlincat

    mymerlincat Moderator

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    Just curious what people think teams would be willing to give him in UFA if he continues his past performance in the regular season as well as being an elite playoff player.
     
  2. mymerlincat

    mymerlincat Moderator

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    Personally, I have a feeling his contract will be one of the worst signed next year. I could easily some team giving him near 6 million for 6 years given his playoff performances.
     
  3. LatvianTwist

    LatvianTwist Global Moderator

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    Beleskey 2.0
     
  4. mymerlincat

    mymerlincat Moderator

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    I wouldn't go that far. Silfverberg was a much better player than Beleskey, especially in the playoffs.
     
  5. BatVader

    BatVader Dark Sith Knight

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    I’d say right now he’s looking at 5-5.5 mil, but if he has a good season, (and possibly playoffs), then I can see him getting over 6.
     
  6. LatvianTwist

    LatvianTwist Global Moderator

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    Yeesh, I just looked at Beleskey’s stat-line. I thought he was doing better than that :laugh:

    I don’t really see someone giving him 6M. I think the Eriksson’s and Ladd’s of a couple years ago have taught the league to be more conservative with non-scoring wingers (and UFA contracts in general). I could see $5M for 4 years somewhere, though. Frolik might be a better comparable. Someone who gets paid what seems like a lot but is really about as fair of a contract for both sides as you can get.
     
  7. Czarchuk

    Czarchuk Go Flames Go!

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    How old will he be when he's a UFA?
     
  8. mymerlincat

    mymerlincat Moderator

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    He will turn 29 at the beginning of the 2019-20 season
     
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  9. crowi

    crowi Registered Loser

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    I expect him to get a decent raise from his current $3.75M. Maybe around $5M, because it's UFA.
     
  10. LMFAO

    LMFAO Registered User

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    5×5
     
  11. Satan

    Satan Roman Polak Believer

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    Poor take- Silf's a volume shooter and reliable defensively.

    Beleskey turned in an unsustainable shooting percentage for a big ticket.
     
  12. simon IC

    simon IC Registered User

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    I would take him on the Blues in a heartbeat! We may have to make some moves to fit hin in though.
     
  13. mymerlincat

    mymerlincat Moderator

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    Really? Your forwards seem set without him
     
  14. simon IC

    simon IC Registered User

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    Not really. Tarasenko is our only natural RW. (And he shoots left). Schwartz, Fabbri and Steen are LW's, and even though Perron is a RHS, he plays better on the left. Maroon plays both wings, but is a LHS. Although we added offence in Maroon, Bozak and Perron, we lost defensive players like Brodziak, Upshall and Berglund, and now our PK is a big question mark. ROR, of course, will help that, but I think we will miss the aforementioned players more than many fans will admit. Silfverberg is a natural RHS RW who is good defensively and can PK. As I said, I would take him on St. Louis in a heartbeat!
     
  15. Getz2perry

    Getz2perry Registered User

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    I feel like he would be a great fit on blues.... kinda like a 2nd line mark stone
     
  16. Dr Quincy

    Dr Quincy Registered User

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    Elite? He's .65 ppg in the playoffs. That's pretty good, not elite.

    But if you look at it: he had 2 really good playoff runs in '15 and '17. In those 2 playoffs he was 13-19-32 in 33 games. That is elite.

    But in his other 4 playoff appearances(I won't include his 2 game appearance in his 1st actual NA games, which would be unfair and would bring his points/g down a little bit) he is 5-8-13 in 34 games. That is mediocre.

    So sure, if you look at his 2 absolute best performances in the playoffs he's great. If you look at his 4 (or 5) other appearances he is a 3rd liner level scorer.

    That's the thing with calling someone a great playoff performer (Bruins fans used to do this with Krejci all the time because he had 2 great runs in the playoffs and about 6 "meh" runs): It's a small sample size and over time it likely regresses back to the player's mean.
     
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  17. Juicy Pop

    Juicy Pop The Eye of Hextall

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    He's worth around 5M IMO. He's a consistent 20g/20a, two-way 2nd liner with a solid playoff resume.
     
  18. mymerlincat

    mymerlincat Moderator

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    I would be shocked if he got under 5
     
  19. CapnZin

    CapnZin Registered User

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    I see a lot of 5M shooting around here. Typically, 7-8g and about 10a is a million a piece. Silf is your typical 20-20-40 player. Looking around that you can expect around 4.75-5.50M for medium term (3-5 years).
     
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  20. heusy_79

    heusy_79 9 - 20 - 8

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    I don't think he's "your typical" 20/20/40 player in that he's also one of the better defensive players in the league at his position and can put up those numbers in a more defensive role, also a great PKer. So he's not your average 40 point middle six forward but one you're also going to target to play key defensive minutes - he would be highly coveted.

    Barring unforeseen circumstances I'd definitely predict that player to get paid at the highest end of your scale, especially given that he'll still be on the good side of 30 when signing.
     
  21. CapnZin

    CapnZin Registered User

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    I agree... he’s good defensively, although, premiums for defensive attributes are really only applicable if that’s what they stand out for (Kopitar, Bergeron, Couturier, Stone, O’Rielly, Zajac, Backlund, Jordan Staal a bit ago, Ryan Kesler some time ago, etc...) while still producing well. Centers get the most attention for this, so we can focus on defensively responsible wingers being Nino Niederreiter, Mark Stone, Jaden Schwartz, and a couple others.

    Wingers don’t have as much of a defensive responsibility. If you can stop gap the NZ, take up shooting lanes inside the mid blue line area, good along the boards, decent with your stick (poke checks, stick lifts, checks), along with having the ability to play down low... you’re considered a good defensive winger. Players like these are Scott Laughton, Cal Clutterbuck, Brenden Perlini, etc... the main difference between them and Silf is their point production.

    2-way ability isn’t a luxury anymore in the NHL... it’s expected. The premium, to which you’re referring to, is if their 2-way play makes them a luxury. That’s also coupled with point production.

    40 points is your prototypical M6 point production teetering towards the upper echelon, but marginal from the middle of the pack. Your M6 players are also your best stop gap players and checkers who can back check. It’s expected from all lines, but again, your M6 is thought of as your players who can produce and play defense.

    While I may have been a little overzealous saying Silf is your prototypical M6/20-20 Player, anyone with a DZ% stat of 60+ is expected to be that. Most of your checkig lines are going to have ~50-57.50 DZ%. That’s their role.

    I’m not trying to say Silf isn’t good defensively, but I would hold off on using a defensive minded player causing that value to become exorbitant. All of us, I do it sometimes too, overvalue expected contingencies in the game. Mainly because we’re fans :)!

    EDIT: With his production and player attributes, he’s close to your prototypical M6 winger. He’ll get in the 5M range. Just depends how long someone wants him.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2018

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