Value of: Jakob Silfverberg at UFA next year

[MMC]

Just curious what people think teams would be willing to give him in UFA if he continues his past performance in the regular season as well as being an elite playoff player.

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[MMC]

Personally, I have a feeling his contract will be one of the worst signed next year. I could easily some team giving him near 6 million for 6 years given his playoff performances.

 

[LT]

Beleskey 2.0

 

[MMC]

Beleskey 2.0

I wouldn't go that far. Silfverberg was a much better player than Beleskey, especially in the playoffs.

 

[BatVader]

I’d say right now he’s looking at 5-5.5 mil, but if he has a good season, (and possibly playoffs), then I can see him getting over 6.

 

[LT]

I wouldn't go that far. Silfverberg was a much better player than Beleskey, especially in the playoffs.

Yeesh, I just looked at Beleskey’s stat-line. I thought he was doing better than that

I don’t really see someone giving him 6M. I think the Eriksson’s and Ladd’s of a couple years ago have taught the league to be more conservative with non-scoring wingers (and UFA contracts in general). I could see $5M for 4 years somewhere, though. Frolik might be a better comparable. Someone who gets paid what seems like a lot but is really about as fair of a contract for both sides as you can get.

 

[CraigsList]

How old will he be when he's a UFA?

 

[MMC]

How old will he be when he's a UFA?

He will turn 29 at the beginning of the 2019-20 season

 

[crowi]

I expect him to get a decent raise from his current $3.75M. Maybe around $5M, because it's UFA.

 

[LMFAO]

5×5

 

[Satan]

Beleskey 2.0

Poor take- Silf's a volume shooter and reliable defensively.

Beleskey turned in an unsustainable shooting percentage for a big ticket.

 

[simon IC]

I would take him on the Blues in a heartbeat! We may have to make some moves to fit hin in though.

 

[MMC]

I would take him on the Blues in a heartbeat! We may have to make some moves to fit hin in though.

Really? Your forwards seem set without him

 

[simon IC]

Really? Your forwards seem set without him

Not really. Tarasenko is our only natural RW. (And he shoots left). Schwartz, Fabbri and Steen are LW's, and even though Perron is a RHS, he plays better on the left. Maroon plays both wings, but is a LHS. Although we added offence in Maroon, Bozak and Perron, we lost defensive players like Brodziak, Upshall and Berglund, and now our PK is a big question mark. ROR, of course, will help that, but I think we will miss the aforementioned players more than many fans will admit. Silfverberg is a natural RHS RW who is good defensively and can PK. As I said, I would take him on St. Louis in a heartbeat!

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Not really. Tarasenko is our only natural RW. (And he shoots left). Schwartz, Fabbri and Steen are LW's, and even though Perron is a RHS, he plays better on the left. Maroon plays both wings, but is a LHS. Although we added offence in Maroon, Bozak and Perron, we lost defensive players like Brodziak, Upshall and Berglund, and now our PK is a big question mark. ROR, of course, will help that, but I think we will miss the aforementioned players more than many fans will admit. Silfverberg is a natural RHS RW who is good defensively and can PK. As I said, I would take him on St. Louis in a heartbeat!

I feel like he would be a great fit on blues.... kinda like a 2nd line mark stone

 

[Dr Quincy]

Just curious what people think teams would be willing to give him in UFA if he continues his past performance in the regular season as well as being an elite playoff player.

Elite? He's .65 ppg in the playoffs. That's pretty good, not elite.

But if you look at it: he had 2 really good playoff runs in '15 and '17. In those 2 playoffs he was 13-19-32 in 33 games. That is elite.

But in his other 4 playoff appearances(I won't include his 2 game appearance in his 1st actual NA games, which would be unfair and would bring his points/g down a little bit) he is 5-8-13 in 34 games. That is mediocre.

So sure, if you look at his 2 absolute best performances in the playoffs he's great. If you look at his 4 (or 5) other appearances he is a 3rd liner level scorer.

That's the thing with calling someone a great playoff performer (Bruins fans used to do this with Krejci all the time because he had 2 great runs in the playoffs and about 6 "meh" runs): It's a small sample size and over time it likely regresses back to the player's mean.

 

[Juicy Pop]

He's worth around 5M IMO. He's a consistent 20g/20a, two-way 2nd liner with a solid playoff resume.

 

[MMC]

I would be shocked if he got under 5

 

[CapnZin]

I see a lot of 5M shooting around here. Typically, 7-8g and about 10a is a million a piece. Silf is your typical 20-20-40 player. Looking around that you can expect around 4.75-5.50M for medium term (3-5 years).

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I see a lot of 5M shooting around here. Typically, 7-8g and about 10a is a million a piece. Silf is your typical 20-20-40 player. Looking around that you can expect around 4.75-5.50M for medium term (3-5 years).

I don't think he's "your typical" 20/20/40 player in that he's also one of the better defensive players in the league at his position and can put up those numbers in a more defensive role, also a great PKer. So he's not your average 40 point middle six forward but one you're also going to target to play key defensive minutes - he would be highly coveted.

Barring unforeseen circumstances I'd definitely predict that player to get paid at the highest end of your scale, especially given that he'll still be on the good side of 30 when signing.

 

[CapnZin]

I don't think he's "your typical" 20/20/40 player in that he's also one of the better defensive players in the league at his position and can put up those numbers in a more defensive role, also a great PKer. So he's not your average 40 point middle six forward but one you're also going to target to play key defensive minutes - he would be highly coveted.

Barring unforeseen circumstances I'd definitely predict that player to get paid at the highest end of your scale, especially given that he'll still be on the good side of 30 when signing.

I agree... he’s good defensively, although, premiums for defensive attributes are really only applicable if that’s what they stand out for (Kopitar, Bergeron, Couturier, Stone, O’Rielly, Zajac, Backlund, Jordan Staal a bit ago, Ryan Kesler some time ago, etc...) while still producing well. Centers get the most attention for this, so we can focus on defensively responsible wingers being Nino Niederreiter, Mark Stone, Jaden Schwartz, and a couple others.

Wingers don’t have as much of a defensive responsibility. If you can stop gap the NZ, take up shooting lanes inside the mid blue line area, good along the boards, decent with your stick (poke checks, stick lifts, checks), along with having the ability to play down low... you’re considered a good defensive winger. Players like these are Scott Laughton, Cal Clutterbuck, Brenden Perlini, etc... the main difference between them and Silf is their point production.

2-way ability isn’t a luxury anymore in the NHL... it’s expected. The premium, to which you’re referring to, is if their 2-way play makes them a luxury. That’s also coupled with point production.

40 points is your prototypical M6 point production teetering towards the upper echelon, but marginal from the middle of the pack. Your M6 players are also your best stop gap players and checkers who can back check. It’s expected from all lines, but again, your M6 is thought of as your players who can produce and play defense.

While I may have been a little overzealous saying Silf is your prototypical M6/20-20 Player, anyone with a DZ% stat of 60+ is expected to be that. Most of your checkig lines are going to have ~50-57.50 DZ%. That’s their role.

I’m not trying to say Silf isn’t good defensively, but I would hold off on using a defensive minded player causing that value to become exorbitant. All of us, I do it sometimes too, overvalue expected contingencies in the game. Mainly because we’re fans !

EDIT: With his production and player attributes, he’s close to your prototypical M6 winger. He’ll get in the 5M range. Just depends how long someone wants him.