Player Discussion Jake Virtanen | XVI

[PetterssonSimp]

Virtanen hasn't busted yet.

He is, however, on a trajectory that suggests he will.

This is about the most realistic outlook for the kid right now.
I was a big supporter of him in summer of 14, once we drafted him I was ok with it since he would crush people and score pretty damn nice one shot goals. Then he had that crap draft+1 season and I tempered my expectations from ootenaital 30 goal guy to hoping he could Hansen his career up. Quality energy 20 goal RW in the middle 6. Showed some better potential at the end of the year but did nothing to help himself in his draft+2 summer which was probably his most important. By the AHL stint I was hoping for a Raffi Torres like career, but he doesn't and hasn't crushed people like he used too in forever. So a possible 10-15 goals a year Raffi with 150 hits is unlikely. Looking more along the lines of a 10/5 Jack Skille than either the Hansen or Torres comparisons.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

This is about the most realistic outlook for the kid right now.
I was a big supporter of him in summer of 14, once we drafted him I was ok with it since he would crush people and score pretty damn nice one shot goals. Then he had that crap draft+1 season and I tempered my expectations from ootenaital 30 goal guy to hoping he could Hansen his career up. Quality energy 20 goal RW in the middle 6. Showed some better potential at the end of the year but did nothing to help himself in his draft+2 summer which was probably his most important. By the AHL stint I was hoping for a Raffi Torres like career, but he doesn't and hasn't crushed people like he used too in forever. So a possible 10-15 goals a year Raffi with 150 hits is unlikely. Looking more along the lines of a 10/5 Jack Skille than either the Hansen or Torres comparisons.

This.

 

[Verviticus]

there was a pretty involved convo on jake coming 8th in the prospect thread and this was posted by a pretty bright guy today



its only a sample of 15 games, randomly picked, and theres obviously plenty of reasons for possible variation, but thats definitely better than the team average, pretty high for the AHL overall it seems and is at least a data point in the argument that he might be able to carve out that higgins style possession forward as a career

so theres a positive indicator for some of you, at least

 

[rune74]

Further to the last post:

http://theprovince.com/sports/hocke...tm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=almasmeherally

 

[DL44]

Further to the last post:

http://theprovince.com/sports/hocke...tm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=almasmeherally

One of the reasons I think he actually sticks longer than Boeser to start the season.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

there was a pretty involved convo on jake coming 8th in the prospect thread and this was posted by a pretty bright guy today



its only a sample of 15 games, randomly picked, and theres obviously plenty of reasons for possible variation, but thats definitely better than the team average, pretty high for the AHL overall it seems and is at least a data point in the argument that he might be able to carve out that higgins style possession forward as a career

so theres a positive indicator for some of you, at least

Assuming it is simply as described, I am pretty stunned that anyone with access to such data would try to even imply that such a thing is even remotely meaningful.

 

[iceburg]

Further to the last post:

http://theprovince.com/sports/hocke...tm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=almasmeherally

Where's Y2K when you need him?

 

[Samzilla]

One of the reasons I think he actually sticks longer than Boeser to start the season.

what's your stance on gaunce?

 

[me2]

One of the reasons I think he actually sticks longer than Boeser to start the season.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had good corsi numbers but less impessive High Danger corsi numbers. In his better NHL year (1st) he had close to 51% corsi but only 45% High Danger. Burn down the wing, fire a weak shot on goal, get off.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

I wouldn't be surprised if he had good corsi numbers but less impessive High Danger corsi numbers. In his better NHL year (1st) he had close to 51% corsi but only 45% High Danger. Burn down the wing, fire a weak shot on goal, get off.

That was my thought as well. Lots of shots from way out and terrible angles.

 

[Verviticus]

Assuming it is simply as described, I am pretty stunned that anyone with access to such data would try to even imply that such a thing is even remotely meaningful.

its about as many samples as his shots/points and it shows he's not getting his teeth kicked in. of course its "remotely meaningful". at this point it probably has more value in predicting his future success than his 40+ goal draft year

thats all that was presented. he didnt make any arguments and im only making a minor one. dl44 using this as a predictor that he'll stick in the nhl longer than boeser is insane. im just saying that there's a sliver of information pointing towards "virtanen will never be a goal scorer but he might be a play driver"

One of the reasons I think he actually sticks longer than Boeser to start the season.

this is the bad way to read the information

That was my thought as well. Lots of shots from way out and terrible angles.

probably, but its still pretty hard to be above 60% but below your competition

what's your stance on gaunce?

im gonna say that its probably highly inconsistent with his stance on virtanen

 

[Wo Yorfat]

This isn't data. It's a fart in the wind.

 

[DL44]

what's your stance on gaunce?

Not a fan.

Move him.

Just lacks the skill for him to be any sort of contributor.
Skates well which gets him chances. void of vision and iq in terms of positioning and letting the puck come to him.
Get rid of him. Type of player you cycle thru and keep bringing players like him to see if you win a lottery of one of them figuring it out. I don't see it with Guance. Do you?

 

[y2kcanucks]

Where's Y2K when you need him?

He's right here, smirking at people who think a 15 game sample size is enough to draw any sort of conclusion from.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Not a fan.

Move him.

Just lacks the skill for him to be any sort of contributor.
Skates well which gets him chances. void of vision and iq in terms of positioning and letting the puck come to him.
Get rid of him. Type of player you cycle thru and keep bringing players like him to see if you win a lottery of one of them figuring it out. I don't see it with Guance. Do you?

He was our best defensive C last season.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

its about as many samples as his shots/points and it shows he's not getting his teeth kicked in. of course its "remotely meaningful".

No it does not. It is far too heavy-handed and noisy of a metric for 15 games of it to show anything. He could absolutely be getting his teeth kicked in and still post that number over 15 games.

probably, but its still pretty hard to be above 60% but below your competition

No it is not; not over 15 games. This is especially true if it is unadjusted, which I implied in my original post. Raw corsi over a 15 game stretch is less than worthless. It measures nothing of value and should not be taken to indicate anything.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

I mean, Virtanen managed to lead the team in CF% over 55 games at the NHL level the season prior.

 

[iceburg]

He's right here, smirking at people who think a 15 game sample size is enough to draw any sort of conclusion from.

Yeah you're right...but better than the opposite. If the number was 45% everybody would be all over it saying it confirms he's a bust.

 

[settinguptheplay]

What were Virtanen's under lying numbers in the NHL 2 seasons ago. That would have been the largest single sample size available I would imagine. If they show similar to the 15 game sample size last year I would fairly assume some accuracy. But if he was a bad possession player than I would agree a 15 game sample size in the AHL is pretty meaningless.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Yeah you're right...but better than the opposite. If the number was 45% everybody would be all over it saying it confirms he's a bust.

Flagrantly false.

This has nothing to do with Virtanen, who I was defending in the latest debate. It is about a metric that tries to measure players effectiveness in such an indirect fashion that it requires like 500 minutes of play to suss out any meaning, and even then pretty much only when accounting for score effects and zone starts.

 

[iceburg]

Flagrantly false.

no, not really unfortunately.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

no, not really unfortunately.

Baseless accusations that cannot be confirmed because they are premised on a hypothetical alternate reality of posters behaviour are even more worthless than 15-game corsi and in no way contribute to or further any topic of conversation.

"If X had happened you guys would be saying Y!" <- No way to prove or disprove this, does not help anything, and absolutely pointless to post it. It is spam, it is trolling, and it is worthless garbage.

I was one of the tools who voted for Virtanen in the #8 thread and was defending him to y2k, so my thoughts on this have nothing to do with my stance on Virtanen.

 

[Verviticus]

I mean, Virtanen managed to lead the team in CF% over 55 games at the NHL level the season prior.

ya. this was one of the highlights from that year

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

ya. this was one of the highlights from that year

The guy with the best possession stats was Chris Higgins, and he was bought out and never heard from again. Because those numbers even over 33 games simply do not measure anything useful about any individual players.

 

[me2]

What were Virtanen's under lying numbers in the NHL 2 seasons ago. That would have been the largest single sample size available I would imagine. If they show similar to the 15 game sample size last year I would fairly assume some accuracy. But if he was a bad possession player than I would agree a 15 game sample size in the AHL is pretty meaningless.

NHL season 1 qA nearly 51% overall but weak on High Danger. I haven't found AHL more advanced stats yet so Utica fans might need post about Jake's game.