WingsMJN2965
Registered User
- Oct 13, 2017
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Ehlers is not a clearly better player and it's laughable to suggest Larkin is.
Fire away. Also feel free to support your point!
Ehlers is not a clearly better player and it's laughable to suggest Larkin is.
Only Pens homers would take Guentzel here. It’s fine to like your guy- and he’s a really good player- but this is separate tier territory.
I think this thread won't go well, not because of the players being discussed but because of something else. How you decide which one is better is based almost solely on what sample size you look at, instead of actually comparing the players. The reason for this? Because Larking was really bad in 2016-2017, to the point where Guentzel outscored him in 40 games as a pure rookie (as in a rookie to all of professional hockey, not just a NHL rookie) when Larkin played in 80.
If you look at a sample size since Guentzel has been in the NHL, Guentzel kicks the crap out of Larkin in terms of production because of that 2016-2017 season. The problem is if you don't include 2016-2017, it's a comparison that hurts Guentzel, because Guentzel had 30 ES points in 40 games in 2016-2017. If you take out 2016-2017, Guentzel's 5v5 points/60 falls from 15th in the NHL (2.43) to 38th (2.28). With taking out 2016-2017, Larkin rises from 137th in 5v5 points/60 (1.77) to 75th (2.02). The problem is you're also comparing a center to a winger, Larkin has 12 more ES points (24 goals and 78 points to 29 goals and 66 points for Guentzel) in basically the same amount of games, but he also plays 3 more minutes a night.
I would take Guentzel based solely on his playoff production, and just say that it's too tough to compare a winger to a center for me to argue about them in the regular season.
Larkin was 20 years old in 16/17 compared to Guentzel, who was 22... That's a stark difference at that age. That'd almost be like comparing one of MacKinnon's lackluster early years with Panarin's rookie year and calling him the better player.
Per 60 stats with Larkin (Especially this year) are going to be brutal because he's on a dog **** team and is pretty much being thrown out 20+ minutes a night to shut down the opposing team's top line. Additionally, roughly half of that, "Extra three minutes" is PK time.
Moreover, consider this:
18-19 Guentzel OZ Starts - 61%
18-19 Larkin OZ Starts - 52%
17-18 Guentzel OZ Starts - 62%
17-18 Larkin OZ Starts - 48.5%
16-17 Guentzel OZ Starts - 60%
16-17 Larkin OZ Starts - 53%
That combined with the fact that Guentzel has spent his entire career with a most common linemate being Sidney Crosby. Larkin is spending 18-19 with Nyquist. Last year his most common was Tatar. The year before that, when he had his "Down year" his most common linemate was JUSTIN ABDELKADER.
So it's hard to argue that Larkin is being better placed to succeed offensively than Guentzel. On top of that, there's many Detroit fans that are under the impression Larkin's play this year is going to earn him Selke votes. (Note, nobody thinks he'll win or even be in the top 3)
So I’m really not convinced Guentzel is a play driver at all.
He’s still a good scorer (high end 2nd line scoring even away from Sid and I’d call him a borderline first line offensive player overall) but he’s not really a positive play driver. Hard to say whether or not Larkin is one but he appears to be this season, and Larkin’s offense > Guentzel’s offense away from sid.He's not, he's a good complimentary piece. This poll (and the Nylander one that Guentzel is actually leading!) will look really bad a year or two from now.