Jake Guentzel vs. Dylan Larkin

[WingsMJN2965]

Ehlers is not a clearly better player and it's laughable to suggest Larkin is.

Fire away. Also feel free to support your point!

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[Empoleon8771]

I think this thread won't go well, not because of the players being discussed but because of something else. How you decide which one is better is based almost solely on what sample size you look at, instead of actually comparing the players. The reason for this? Because Larking was really bad in 2016-2017, to the point where Guentzel outscored him in 40 games as a pure rookie (as in a rookie to all of professional hockey, not just a NHL rookie) when Larkin played in 80.

If you look at a sample size since Guentzel has been in the NHL, Guentzel kicks the crap out of Larkin in terms of production because of that 2016-2017 season. The problem is if you don't include 2016-2017, it's a comparison that hurts Guentzel, because Guentzel had 30 ES points in 40 games in 2016-2017. If you take out 2016-2017, Guentzel's 5v5 points/60 falls from 15th in the NHL (2.43) to 38th (2.28). With taking out 2016-2017, Larkin rises from 137th in 5v5 points/60 (1.77) to 75th (2.02). The problem is you're also comparing a center to a winger, Larkin has 12 more ES points (24 goals and 78 points to 29 goals and 66 points for Guentzel) in basically the same amount of games, but he also plays 3 more minutes a night.

I would take Guentzel based solely on his playoff production, and just say that it's too tough to compare a winger to a center for me to argue about them in the regular season.

 

[Trade]

Only thing Larkin has on Guentzel is that Guentzel isn't the fastest skater in NHL history.


Guentzel is criminally underrated and he is not even close to being solely a product of Sid and anyone who thinks that has clearly just not watched him.

Sid benefits from Jake almost as much as Jake benefits from Sid.

Last year Jake could have easily had a more impressive point total in the regular season, but he was playing 3C for a while because we started the season with 3 NHL centers, one of them being Sheahan so Jake filled in.

 

[BKarchitect]

...and all that said, Larkin for me without question.

 

[Fatty McLardy]

gotta go with Larkin here, Younger, faster, higher upside, putting up similar stats on a terrible team.

But i will say Guentzel is something special in the playoffs, totally different player when its the post season. He takes over games in a way only the top superstars can.

 

[SenzZen]

Only Pens homers would take Guentzel here. It’s fine to like your guy- and he’s a really good player- but this is separate tier territory.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Only Pens homers would take Guentzel here. It’s fine to like your guy- and he’s a really good player- but this is separate tier territory.

Okay, what's the actual argument here? I'm fine with listening to an argument for Larkin here, I just want to see what that argument here is

Just calling anyone who doesn't take Larkin a Penguins homer isn't an argument. I want to see an actual argument here, because it's not supported statistically. Larkin is even Guentzel's best player comparable, according to Capfriendly. I just want something more than "I think Larkin is better, so you're a homer if you think Guentzel is better".

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I think this thread won't go well, not because of the players being discussed but because of something else. How you decide which one is better is based almost solely on what sample size you look at, instead of actually comparing the players. The reason for this? Because Larking was really bad in 2016-2017, to the point where Guentzel outscored him in 40 games as a pure rookie (as in a rookie to all of professional hockey, not just a NHL rookie) when Larkin played in 80.

Larkin was 20 years old in 16/17 compared to Guentzel, who was 22... That's a stark difference at that age. That'd almost be like comparing one of MacKinnon's lackluster early years with Panarin's rookie year and calling him the better player.

If you look at a sample size since Guentzel has been in the NHL, Guentzel kicks the crap out of Larkin in terms of production because of that 2016-2017 season. The problem is if you don't include 2016-2017, it's a comparison that hurts Guentzel, because Guentzel had 30 ES points in 40 games in 2016-2017. If you take out 2016-2017, Guentzel's 5v5 points/60 falls from 15th in the NHL (2.43) to 38th (2.28). With taking out 2016-2017, Larkin rises from 137th in 5v5 points/60 (1.77) to 75th (2.02). The problem is you're also comparing a center to a winger, Larkin has 12 more ES points (24 goals and 78 points to 29 goals and 66 points for Guentzel) in basically the same amount of games, but he also plays 3 more minutes a night.

I would take Guentzel based solely on his playoff production, and just say that it's too tough to compare a winger to a center for me to argue about them in the regular season.

Per 60 stats with Larkin (Especially this year) are going to be brutal because he's on a dog shit team and is pretty much being thrown out 20+ minutes a night to shut down the opposing team's top line. Additionally, roughly half of that, "Extra three minutes" is PK time.

Moreover, consider this:

18-19 Guentzel OZ Starts - 61%
18-19 Larkin OZ Starts - 52%
17-18 Guentzel OZ Starts - 62%
17-18 Larkin OZ Starts - 48.5%
16-17 Guentzel OZ Starts - 60%
16-17 Larkin OZ Starts - 53%

That combined with the fact that Guentzel has spent his entire career with a most common linemate being Sidney Crosby. Larkin is spending 18-19 with Nyquist. Last year his most common was Tatar. The year before that, when he had his "Down year" his most common linemate was JUSTIN ABDELKADER.

So it's hard to argue that Larkin is being better placed to succeed offensively than Guentzel. On top of that, there's many Detroit fans that are under the impression Larkin's play this year is going to earn him Selke votes. (Note, nobody thinks he'll win or even be in the top 3)

 

[Pyrophorus]

Once again Larkin's done it, in the regular season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Larkin was 20 years old in 16/17 compared to Guentzel, who was 22... That's a stark difference at that age. That'd almost be like comparing one of MacKinnon's lackluster early years with Panarin's rookie year and calling him the better player.



Per 60 stats with Larkin (Especially this year) are going to be brutal because he's on a dog **** team and is pretty much being thrown out 20+ minutes a night to shut down the opposing team's top line. Additionally, roughly half of that, "Extra three minutes" is PK time.

Moreover, consider this:

18-19 Guentzel OZ Starts - 61%
18-19 Larkin OZ Starts - 52%
17-18 Guentzel OZ Starts - 62%
17-18 Larkin OZ Starts - 48.5%
16-17 Guentzel OZ Starts - 60%
16-17 Larkin OZ Starts - 53%

That combined with the fact that Guentzel has spent his entire career with a most common linemate being Sidney Crosby. Larkin is spending 18-19 with Nyquist. Last year his most common was Tatar. The year before that, when he had his "Down year" his most common linemate was JUSTIN ABDELKADER.

So it's hard to argue that Larkin is being better placed to succeed offensively than Guentzel. On top of that, there's many Detroit fans that are under the impression Larkin's play this year is going to earn him Selke votes. (Note, nobody thinks he'll win or even be in the top 3)

None of this really refutes the stats I posted, they just add context to the numbers. Do I think Guentzel plays with better linemates in a much better opportunity to put up points? Hell yes, but he still has produced better (in terms of points/60). I think this just comes back to my original last sentence, they're different players that play different positions and have different jobs. Comparing them is a pretty difficult thing to do, because they're not comparable players. How you rate them depends on what you value in a player and how you evaluate stats vs context.

I'll stick by my original last sentence, I'd take Guentzel because he has been insane in the playoffs and just say they're too different to compare in the regular season.

 

[newfy]

This wont be close.

Guentzel is a solid, legit player but Larkin is better. Think of it this way as a comparison.. Larkin is his teams Crosby while Guentzel is his teams Nyquist right now. One is the go to guy, relied on in any situation and the other is a complimentary player to the do it all first line center. Still a really solid player but doesnt have the same responsibilities at all.

This is a situation where you can try to paint some kind of picture with stats but it just doesnt work. If we have to use points/60 to argue a player who has Crosby on his line as better than a guy who plays with Nyquist and Abdelkader than you lose the argument.

 

[LarKing]

They’re fairly similar production wise in the regular season. Guentzel has the advantage in the playoffs but Larkin hasn’t really had the chance there yet.

But then factor in defense, zone starts, linemates, etc. and it’s pretty clearly Larkin. I don’t think they’re super far apart though.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Imagine Larkin playing wing to Crosby.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Since start of 17-18:

Larkin: 1.48 p1/60, 7.57 oish%, 47.81 xGF%, +.83 rel xGF%,
Guentzel: 1.62 p1/60, 8.07 oish%, 52.94 xGF%, +1.6 rel xGF%

However Crosby is a 57.18% xgf% in that span (!). So I’m really not convinced Guentzel is a play driver at all. Guentzel is under 50% Corsi and Fenwick away from Sid while Sid remains over 54% corsi and 57% fenwick. Guentzel is sort of a possession liability. Also Guentzel is a 1.73 p1/60 dude when with Crosby. I will edit this post with his p1/60 away from Crosby in a sec. (edit: its 1.42). Considering their roles on their respective teams and Larkin’s noticeable defensive improvement this season, gimme Larkin.

 

[arrbez]

So I’m really not convinced Guentzel is a play driver at all.

He's not, he's a good complimentary piece. This poll (and the Nylander one that Guentzel is actually leading!) will look really bad a year or two from now.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

He's not, he's a good complimentary piece. This poll (and the Nylander one that Guentzel is actually leading!) will look really bad a year or two from now.

He’s still a good scorer (high end 2nd line scoring even away from Sid and I’d call him a borderline first line offensive player overall) but he’s not really a positive play driver. Hard to say whether or not Larkin is one but he appears to be this season, and Larkin’s offense > Guentzel’s offense away from sid.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

This year alone Larkin is an insane +9 rel xGF%, and I’m not convinced it’s a complete fluke. I think Larkin is making real strides as a play driver while retaining his offense. I do find him a bit overrated but he’s definitely improving.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Yet again, P/60 is going to be a horrible stat by which to gauge Larkin's performance, as he's pretty much being put out there 20+ minutes a night to shut down other team's top lines.

It's not like we have another option where we can roll two lines against a Crosby/Matthews/MacKinnon/McDavid and trust either one. Our #2C is FRANS NIELSEN.

Might I add that Larkin has done a pretty good job at shutting those lines down. Best evidence of that was the early December Toronto game where Babcock was deliberately trying to keep Matthews' line away from Larkin's.

 

[ColbyChaos]

A player who has not only outscored Guentzal so far this season and last season, plays with worse linemates, is actually someone who can run a line instead of being a leech, is faster, better defensively.

This one surely will be close

 

[Hellraising Senator]

As a neutral fan who see these guys a lot. Without a doubt I take Larkin all day. Better skater, better defensive acumen, better possession player etc.

Zero question Larkin is better then Guentzel. It is not overly close either. This is not to say Guentzel is not good either, just he is not as good a hockey player as Larkin who is just an all around better player.

Blah blah playoffs people say. Larkin has a team that doesnt allow playoffs yet. That brush used to paint up Guentzel holds no weight imo.

 

[780il]

Larkin easily

 

[SillyRabbit]

Larkin. He’s carrying the Red Wings.

Guentzel has been very impressive for the Pens but I don’t know if he could do what Larkin is doing for the Wings.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

If there situations were reversed this wouldn't be a discussion.
I'm biased, but truly believe Larkin is a beast