Jake Gardiner - The NHL's most underrated defensmen?

[Kamiccolo]

So I get that this is going to draw some controversy, however if you do not believe that he is a good player, I would think you have not watched him and are basing your views on him as a few years ago.

Jake was the Leafs best defender last two seasons. He played as our #1 D down the stretch and did an amazing job, and kept it going through the playoffs. His stat line

GP 82 G 9 A 34 P 43 +/- 24

I think he is actually a premier two way D in the NHL. I was actually looking into some stats with him compared to other "elite" D, and while I get he is not the best, I was actually surprised just how well he stacked up against some of these guys.

Doughty:

Keith:

Weber:

Pietrangelo:

McDonagh:

So my question is, if the stat line pass, the advanced stats pass, what is stopping him from viewed as a premier defender in the NHL?

Only thing I could find is minutes being played is less than other D, and I thought that he faced lesser quality of competition. Reading up on it, I found this

And yet if you look at their Corsi quality of competition, the gap looks small. Gardiner’s Corsi QoC is 49.9% and Rielly’s is 50.6%. It’s not nothing, but it’s certainly much smaller than the gap in Corsi Rel between the two players, which is about 3%. So if it looks in the above charts like Rielly is being given way tougher minutes, why isn’t it showing up in the tables above?

One reason is that QoC is based on all five opponents on the ice, so even if you play against a top centre, the overall QoC can be brought down if some of the other players on the ice aren’t as good. It’s also true that the ice time listed here is only a fraction of the total played by each player. If you add up all the players above who Rielly played against far more than Gardiner did, you’re only accounting for about 20% of his total time on ice. Maybe Rielly plays tougher minutes in some situations, but the overall spread remains small because such a huge portion of each player’s ice time is played against everyone else.

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/03/...and-the-importance-of-quality-of-competition/

What this says is that QoC when you dive into it, really isn't as huge of a factor as many people believe it is. Regardless, he still faced a ton of hard matchups throughout the season, and during the hardest stretch of hockey (the last month before the season).

So I suppose outside of playing slightly less minutes which is normal for a Babs coached team (He rolls forward lines and D pairings pretty evenly), there really isn't much we can point to that separates him from a lot of star NHL D.

So what is it about him that doesn't have the appeal these other guys do? Is it because he is a late bloomer? Or am I missing something?

Happy to have someone provide some stats I do not know about to counter my points, but remember that Gardiner has a ton of stats to backup this point, so pulling one random stat that shows something different does not necessarily negate the points I am making.

Click to read more...

 

[DonnyG33]

If you're going to compare Gardiner to others in primarily offensive stats and call him elite, you should probably compare him to elite offensive defensemen, like Hedman, Burns or Karlsson. Not cherrypicking more defensive defensemen to try and prove your point.

 

[Morlu]

Gardiner is just prone to a lot of stupid mistakes. If he can ever become "Playoff Gardiner" all the time he could be a #1 or #2. In both playoff series Boston/Washington he was like a different player.

 

[Kamiccolo]

If you're going to compare Gardiner to others in primarily offensive stats and call him elite, you should probably compare him to elite offensive defensemen, like Hedman, Burns or Karlsson. Not cherrypicking more defensive defensemen to try and prove your point.

That's just it, I am not pointing to offensive stats. It's all in the OP, I compared all stats. Gardiner stacks up well against other two way D. Gardiner is not an offensive D, this is the type of misunderstanding I am talking about.

He is just as much a good shutdown D as he is a good PMD who can put up points.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Gardiner is just prone to a lot of stupid mistakes. If he can ever become "Playoff Gardiner" all the time he could be a #1 or #2. In both playoff series Boston/Washington he was like a different player.

See, this is another thing. Every D makes mistakes, and Gardiner makes some, but not nearly as much as he used too. A lot of people think he is still the guy who makes 2-3 terrible plays a game, but this last season it was more like 1 head scratcher every 3 or 4 games.

I think it's just his style, he makes plays. We see guys like Subban do it, yet he draws hardly any critiscm on it.

 

[DonnyG33]

That's just it, I am not pointing to offensive stats. It's all in the OP, I compared all stats. Gardiner stacks up well against other two way D. Gardiner is not an offensive D, this is the type of misunderstanding I am talking about.

He is just as much a good shutdown D as he is a good PMD who can put up points.

So goals, first assists, shot generation and primary points per 60 aren't offensive metrics?

 

[Viqsi]

See, this is another thing. Every D makes mistakes, and Gardiner makes some, but not nearly as much as he used too. A lot of people think he is still the guy who makes 2-3 terrible plays a game, but this last season it was more like 1 head scratcher every 3 or 4 games.

I think it's just his style, he makes plays. We see guys like Subban do it, yet he draws hardly any critiscm on it.

I want to live in that world. It would be a much nicer world.

 

[Skipee]

Gardiner can have all the fancy numbers that he has, he still never passes the eye test whenever I watch him play.

 

[Mugzy97]

I like him and hope we keep him around. He's not a #1D but he has been on our team. If he's not a #2D then he is an amazing #3D. That's my view of him.

 

[Henkka]

Can't this HERO chart crap just die?

It tells nothing important about defencemen.

 

[garyturner3]

On one hand I agree that Gardiner is ridiculously underrated on these forums and the bashing he gets is usually from fans that either haven't watched him recently or fans that focus on the one mistake they saw him make that game instead of the rest of his contributions. That's why advanced stats are so valuable in my opinion; they allow us to judge a player's value over the course of a game and not just focus on the things that stand out like a single giveaway. Gardiner was by far our best d-man last season and the numbers back it up.

But having said that, I think the big difference in your comparisons and separating him from the guys you mentioned is ice time. There's all sorts of advanced stats heroes in the league that only get these numbers because of lower ice time and sheltered minutes. Even some bottom pairing guys have better advanced stats than Doughty. When you get into the tier of a Drew Doughty type player, that ice time column in your hero charts is near the top. When that happens it's impossible to get sheltered minutes so you know the shot suppression and shot generation numbers are the real deal. If we started playing Gardiner in the same situations as Doughty plays, the shot suppression/generation numbers most likely drop.

I'm very high on Gardiner and I think he's worst case a top tier #3 guy now, and more likely a low end #2. But unless he proves he could put up these numbers with more ice time in all situations, he's got a ways to go before he reaches the level of your top tier guys.

 

[LaymanX]

Yes, yes he is.

It's ludicrous how underrated he is. He's being tossed around as a throw in for Hamonic, Tanev, Dumba (!!!) when he's superior to all these guys.

As for the brain freezes, every dman makes the occasional mistake (Doughty, Karlsson, Burns). We just like to really really focus on those mistakes in TO.

Thanks OP, great thread

 

[Cams]

Gardiner is just prone to a lot of stupid mistakes. If he can ever become "Playoff Gardiner" all the time he could be a #1 or #2. In both playoff series Boston/Washington he was like a different player.

This..... this sums up Gardiner as a whole. He is NOT elite, he is certainly not a stud defensively. Here are (off the top of my head at least) pros/cons of Gardiner....

Pros:
1 - very good skater
2 - eats lots of minutes
3 - veteran presence (at least for the team)
4 - can skate well with puck

Cons:
1 - makes rookie mistakes (coverage/giveaways) too often
2 - does not shoot even though having what seems like a pretty good shot
3 - does not use his size (6'2", 200+ lbs)/soft in his own end
4 - despite his tools, which say he is an offensive dman, he puts up low point totals

If we can have playoff Gardiner more often in the regular season.....things would be much calmer on the back end. Of course nobody is going to be top notch each and every game. However, with him being a veteran of over 400 reg season games now, at times he still leaves you wondering how he can make whatever mistake(s).

 

[57special]

Of course the Leafs just happen to have the most underrated Dman in the league. Such a mousy little unreported team that nobody pays attention to, and all their players fly under the radar.

 

[lomiller1]

GAR and rank amoung NHL D for each of these players:
Webber 12.9 7th for
Mcdonagh 12.3 9th
Doughty 11.4 14th
Gardiner 7.4 40th
Keith 6.9 53rd

Aside from Keith who had a really down year Gardiner is well behind all these even when he has a career year.

 

[57special]

Keith at his absolute worst if five times the player Gardiner is at his best. And this is from a Keith hater, because he is a dirty POS.

To even mention Gardiner in the same breath as the Dmen above is ludicrous.

 

[ijuka]

Gardiner is a good player but what those graphs likely miss are his frequent, awful plays like giving a free breakaway pass to an opponent, unforced giveaways etc. that are very common for him for some reason and this is a big reason for why I wouldn't really include him with any of those top guys.

 

[StevenB]

If Toronto really had 2 #3s, a number 4, and the rest depth guys they would have not have made the playoffs after Freddy's start to the season. The leafs defense is underrated. IMHO, this season Rielly and Gardiner played like 2s (albeit Rielly getting the tougher minutes). Zaitsev was shaky at times, but looked like a solid 2nd pairing dman. Carrick was meh (#5 who could step into the second pairing if needed. Polak And Hunwick stepped it up at the end of the season and looked like a solid 3rd pairing we're just missing that last guy that can play top four minutes, and I think we should get a stop gap until Liljegren is ready to step into that role (probably not another 3-5 years depending on his development)

I know I went off topic and don't want to hijack the thread, but if you say Gardiner played like anything less than a #2 this year, you're clueless

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Keith at his absolute worst if five times the player Gardiner is at his best. And this is from a Keith hater, because he is a dirty POS.

To even mention Gardiner in the same breath as the Dmen above is ludicrous.

What is this based on?

Gardiner is amazing. Try to watch him under Babcock. Rarely makes mistakes and generates a ton of shots and suppresses shots very well as the numbers show.

The "eye test" doesn't match up with the numbers at all, because Gardiner is as good as the numbers show. He's a #1/2 dman.

 

[DJJones]

Future Hall of Fame candidate imo

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

If Toronto really had 2 #3s, a number 4, and the rest depth guys they would have not have made the playoffs after Freddy's start to the season. The leafs defense is underrated. IMHO, this season Rielly and Gardiner played like 2s (albeit Rielly getting the tougher minutes). Zaitsev was shaky at times, but looked like a solid 2nd pairing dman. Carrick was meh (#5 who could step into the second pairing if needed. Polak And Hunwick stepped it up at the end of the season and looked like a solid 3rd pairing we're just missing that last guy that can play top four minutes, and I think we should get a stop gap until Liljegren is ready to step into that role (probably not another 3-5 years depending on his development)

I know I went off topic and don't want to hijack the thread, but if you say Gardiner played like anything less than a #2 this year, you're clueless

It's just people hate the Leafs so much on HF, its unlike anything I've ever seen. Just last year there were people who said Yamamoto>Matthews.

You're right, if Toronto didn't have a single top pair dman they would have been a lottery team, not a playoff team, moreso a good playoff team that could have easily beat the caps.

 

[Kamiccolo]

On one hand I agree that Gardiner is ridiculously underrated on these forums and the bashing he gets is usually from fans that either haven't watched him recently or fans that focus on the one mistake they saw him make that game instead of the rest of his contributions. That's why advanced stats are so valuable in my opinion; they allow us to judge a player's value over the course of a game and not just focus on the things that stand out like a single giveaway. Gardiner was by far our best d-man last season and the numbers back it up.

But having said that, I think the big difference in your comparisons and separating him from the guys you mentioned is ice time. There's all sorts of advanced stats heroes in the league that only get these numbers because of lower ice time and sheltered minutes. Even some bottom pairing guys have better advanced stats than Doughty. When you get into the tier of a Drew Doughty type player, that ice time column in your hero charts is near the top. When that happens it's impossible to get sheltered minutes so you know the shot suppression and shot generation numbers are the real deal. If we started playing Gardiner in the same situations as Doughty plays, the shot suppression/generation numbers most likely drop.

I'm very high on Gardiner and I think he's worst case a top tier #3 guy now, and more likely a low end #2. But unless he proves he could put up these numbers with more ice time in all situations, he's got a ways to go before he reaches the level of your top tier guys.

Very good points. I think some of it may come from "over scouting" where people focus on his flaws instead of his strengths.

I want to touch on your time on ice points. A bottom pairing D usually plays 10-15 min a night. Gardiner plays usually 17-21 a night, and Doughty plays usually 20-25 a night. My question is, how much difference is there between that ice time? I would argue that it is less significant than 10 more minutes Doughty would play over a bottom pairing D.

Great post.

This..... this sums up Gardiner as a whole. He is NOT elite, he is certainly not a stud defensively. Here are (off the top of my head at least) pros/cons of Gardiner....

Pros:
1 - very good skater
2 - eats lots of minutes
3 - veteran presence (at least for the team)
4 - can skate well with puck

Cons:
1 - makes rookie mistakes (coverage/giveaways) too often
2 - does not shoot even though having what seems like a pretty good shot
3 - does not use his size (6'2", 200+ lbs)/soft in his own end
4 - despite his tools, which say he is an offensive dman, he puts up low point totals

If we can have playoff Gardiner more often in the regular season.....things would be much calmer on the back end. Of course nobody is going to be top notch each and every game. However, with him being a veteran of over 400 reg season games now, at times he still leaves you wondering how he can make whatever mistake(s).

Mid 40's is low offensive totals? I'd be curious if you could find D who produce in the mid 40's who are as good defensively as he is. I think the list would be shot.

I agree with the mistakes thing, but that is really the only thing people have on him, and the truth is he barely makes them anymore yet people act like I said in the OP, like he does that 4 or 5 times a game.

Of course the Leafs just happen to have the most underrated Dman in the league. Such a mousy little unreported team that nobody pays attention to, and all their players fly under the radar.

Unnecessary post. It's possible for a team to have several over rated players and several under rated players. I would argue Gardiner is among the most under rated in the NHL, hence the thread.

Do you have something to add, or just wanted to throw some poo at the Leafs?

GAR and rank amoung NHL D for each of these players:
Webber 12.9 7th for
Mcdonagh 12.3 9th
Doughty 11.4 14th
Gardiner 7.4 40th
Keith 6.9 53rd

Aside from Keith who had a really down year Gardiner is well behind all these even when he has a career year.

Hmm, I've never heard of GAR. I need to read into what this takes into account, does it incorporate multiple stats? Or is this just like a random stat? Could you find some bad D with those numbers? How accurate is it and who made it.

I'll be back once I read more on this. Thanks.

 

[Pestilence]

Playing on the most watched team in the league I was prepared to say that nah, probably not, but boy those Hero charts proved me wrong.

So to continue the list.

Most underrated defenseman in the NHL
T.J. Brodie
Jake Gardiner

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

In what way does this contribute to the thread? Instead of posting a bunch of smilies why don't you try and respond to anything? You made a ridiculous claim, atleast back it up.

 

[Kamiccolo]

So far there have been a lot of myths being repeated and some bashing, but only one post that has contributed anything to back up arguments that he is not as good as the OP indicates.