Value of: Jake Evans, any interest?

[Mrfenn92]

I think it depends on if he wants to test UFA next year or stay in Montreal for relatively low money

That’s a bridge your team can wait for. No reason to move him for a mid round pick or a low second.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

He's a smart player, but shouldn't make more than what he is, so I'd trade him for a pick.

 

[Mrfenn92]

He's a smart player, but shouldn't make more than what he is, so I'd trade him for a pick.

Your team has lots of picks. Still need guys to play the actual nhl minutes. In a years time he’s probably still worth the same pick.

 

[CanadienShark]

For the Avs, I would rather give a shot at Gignac. Gignac has great wheels and has been ok on FO in his debue (1st game 50% - 2nd game 100%). Maybe we can use him a bit like JT Compher was.

To Colorado

Gignac + 7th

To Montreal

SEA 2024 5th

Uh dude, no.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Your team has lots of picks. Still need guys to play the actual nhl minutes. In a years time he’s probably still worth the same pick.

True, but he's one of those players you see a lot of and he does his job and he's an NHLer, but you know he isn't there for the long-teem and you're kind of tired of seeing him, if thar makes sense.

If they trade him in the offseason, or next deadline, so be it, maybe his offense gers back, well the goal scoring part and you can get a little more.

 

[Jared Dunn]

That’s a bridge your team can wait for. No reason to move him for a mid round pick or a low second.

100% no reason to trade him this season considering the team's center depth unless someone loses their mind and trades a 1st for him. If they get a sense he's looking to get a big-ish raise you can maybe trade him in the offseason and go after vet centers in UFA

 

[Mrfenn92]

True, but he's one of those players you see a lot of and he does his job and he's an NHLer, but you know he isn't there for the long-teem and you're kind of tired of seeing him, if thar makes sense.

If they trade him in the offseason, or next deadline, so be it, maybe his offense gers back, well the goal scoring part and you can get a little more.

I understand that. Have plenty of guys on the hawks team I see that way also. I think it’s a good call to keep him unless the habs get active acquiring actual centers which makes him redundant.

100% no reason to trade him this season considering the team's center depth unless someone loses their mind and trades a 1st for him. If they get a sense he's looking to get a big-ish raise you can maybe trade him in the offseason and go after vet centers in UFA

A first would be fantastic obviously for the habs but very much doubtful.

 

[HabsAddict]

I think it depends on if he wants to test UFA next year or stay in Montreal for relatively low money

By mid year next season we better have Ylonen, Beck and Roy ready to match or push him aside or our development coaching and drafting will be exposed for what i fear it may be.

 

[HabsAddict]

I understand that. Have plenty of guys on the hawks team I see that way also. I think it’s a good call to keep him unless the habs get active acquiring actual centers which makes him redundant.


A first would be fantastic obviously for the habs but very much doubtful.

It's more then redundant in center position. Centers can play wing far easier then wingers playing centers. So it's not just getting centers, it's having players that are better then him.

If he's the bottom of our scoring because we have a slew of NHL ready youngsters moving into the bottom 6 then next TD he's on the block.

 

[samsagat]

So.... the Habs trade Evans have a total of 1 x NHL center remaining (Suzuki) for the remainder of the season.

Great idea!

In a tanking logic? Sure...

For now, Habs aren't in the "winning games" business but rather in the "draft the highest possible" business...

 

[Junohockeyfan]

In a tanking logic? Sure...

For now, Habs aren't in the "winning games" business but rather in the "draft the highest possible" business...

Habs also have a responsibility to develop the young players during a rebuild. Having 1 x NHL quality C is counter to that.

Trading anyone for anything is a stupid way to rebuild.

 

[samsagat]

A 3rd round draft pick has 13% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL. Likely an Evans like player.

That's what a 237 game 78 point Evans overcame to play in the NHL

So you trade an existing NHL player for a 1 in 8 chance in 5 years that you will get the same type of player.

Make sense to anyone?

A 3rd or 4th line center already in the NHL has more value then that. But hey, all the NHL2000 professional hockey GMs already knew that.

Your 13% chance of drafting a 100 games player in the 3rd Rd comes from the graph you shared?

Well, I think you misinterpreted the graph as it's not the probability of drafting 100 games players for each round but rather the proportion of actual NHL players that played 100 games for each round.

If you add all the % of the graph it gives you 100%.

 

[HabsAddict]

Your 13% chance of drafting a 100 games player in the 3rd Rd comes from the graph you shared?

Well, I think you misinterpreted the graph as it's not the probability of drafting 100 games players for each round but rather the proportion of actual NHL players that played 100 games for each round.

If you add all the % of the graph it gives you 100%.

Reread what you just wrote.

 

[Apoplectic Habs Fan]

Delete

 

[samsagat]

Reread what you just wrote.

Why?

Because you think it's the same thing?

Well it's not...

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Probably worth a 3rd but better off keeping him

 

[Djp]

Look at this. Study it. Look at it again. Study it harder.

Then ask yourself if what you are about to say make sense in term of an offer for an existing NHL player.

View attachment 818049

Without the source and definitions this is garbage.

All this means of those who make it to 100 games --what round they were drafted. It doesnt measure the quality of the players nor the draft picks.

If you invest in a first pick you are going to give them more opportunities and if say cut or traded someone else may give them more opportunities so the odds of a 1st rounder getting to 100 game is inherently more likely..

if they arent given a spot on the NHJL team as an 18/18 yr oold without the option of AHL then they are more inclined to play more games in the NHL than if they go to the AHL.

usually 1st round players make the team in their 20 yr old season unless they came from europe where they might be given some time in the AHL to adjust to NA. over the 3 years in their ELC they are likely gettinhg the priority call ups for injuries where they can easily do 60+ games over an ELC. then on a 1-2 yr bridge they can get to 100

On the flip side....those drafted in 6th and 7th round are flyers. If they do make it to the NHL they earned it and proven better than where they were drafted and are higher liklihood of if they get to the NHL its for 100+ games. teams generally dont do call ups on 7th round players on their ELC just because they were drafted. if they were long time AHL vets they may give them some nhl games as a courtousy for their career.

In the chart above around 45% of those who make the NHL and 100+ games were outside the first two rounds.

Whats missing in this is its not factoring undrafted players or player pick when there wre more rounds.

This has nothing to do with pick values.

yes unlike say the NFL, in the NHL there is a significant drop off.

the top 5 usually have long careers at top 6 player on the roster
6-13 are expect to be core players who may be stars
14-22 should have solid NHL career in middle lines and middle pairings.
23-40 is very hit and miss in drafted players where some are 200+ career players while others get the chances to be 100+ just because of where they got drafted (GM pride)
41-90 are also very hit and miss. not many become core players. some have non name careers hitting 100+ games
beyond 90--they are likely not to make the nhl beyond a 50 games. If they do they can have careers in the league.

 

[ole ole]

I don't think this guy has any value, to be honest. We'll give you Kampf, one for one.

Yet he still have twice the amount of Kamph who is a pure capdump. You better be adding some picks.

 

[Miller Time]

Your team has lots of picks. Still need guys to play the actual nhl minutes. In a years time he’s probably still worth the same pick.

Exactly.

Odds are miniscule that a team would offer enough at this deadline for it to be even remotely worthwhile for the Habs to move him.

 

[Scintillating10]

I know that the name of Jake Evans won't make HFboarders make wet dreams.

But if you've watch actual Habs games this year, you know the guy is a great 4th line center that any contender team would want aboard...

Specially NHL coaches/GMs, 'cause those guys know the value of that kind of players when it comes to playoffs tight style of play.

To win it all you need a great top 6, of course. But you need solid bottom 6 too..

He's a RHC, he wins faceoffs, he's very (very) smart, so he brakes a lot of play because of his anticipation capacity. He's very good defensively while being able to contribute a little offense (4th line level).

He's been good in the Habs '21 run to the finals. He has experience.

There's no hurry to trade him, he's got one more year on his (1,7 mil) contract. So Hughes won't give him away, he's not on the trade list unless a good payback.

Not a 1st of course, a 3rd? A 2nd (with some additional assets on MTL side?)?

Is there any HFboard interest?

Just for fun as Mtl is pretty slim on centers, and Evans is certainly a player MSL like.

Habs short on centers, doubt he is available. Won't return nothing, why trade him?

 

[Whalers Fan]

By mid year next season we better have Ylonen, Beck and Roy ready to match or push him aside or our development coaching and drafting will be exposed for what i fear it may be.

Beck is still playing in juniors. Expecting him to be ready to push others aside next season is a little optimistic. Ylonen an Roy are wingers. The team still needs center depth, which Evans provides.

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

Realistically he'd be a mid to late pick. He'd be a 4C on a playoff team, and a solid one at that, but ultimately he's replaceable and there are quite a few players who could do the same job, so the demand won't be high to drive up the price.

 

[HabsAddict]

Without the source and definitions this is garbage.

All this means of those who make it to 100 games --what round they were drafted. It doesnt measure the quality of the players nor the draft picks.

If you invest in a first pick you are going to give them more opportunities and if say cut or traded someone else may give them more opportunities so the odds of a 1st rounder getting to 100 game is inherently more likely..

if they arent given a spot on the NHJL team as an 18/18 yr oold without the option of AHL then they are more inclined to play more games in the NHL than if they go to the AHL.

usually 1st round players make the team in their 20 yr old season unless they came from europe where they might be given some time in the AHL to adjust to NA. over the 3 years in their ELC they are likely gettinhg the priority call ups for injuries where they can easily do 60+ games over an ELC. then on a 1-2 yr bridge they can get to 100

On the flip side....those drafted in 6th and 7th round are flyers. If they do make it to the NHL they earned it and proven better than where they were drafted and are higher liklihood of if they get to the NHL its for 100+ games. teams generally dont do call ups on 7th round players on their ELC just because they were drafted. if they were long time AHL vets they may give them some nhl games as a courtousy for their career.

In the chart above around 45% of those who make the NHL and 100+ games were outside the first two rounds.

Whats missing in this is its not factoring undrafted players or player pick when there wre more rounds.

This has nothing to do with pick values.

yes unlike say the NFL, in the NHL there is a significant drop off.

the top 5 usually have long careers at top 6 player on the roster
6-13 are expect to be core players who may be stars
14-22 should have solid NHL career in middle lines and middle pairings.
23-40 is very hit and miss in drafted players where some are 200+ career players while others get the chances to be 100+ just because of where they got drafted (GM pride)
41-90 are also very hit and miss. not many become core players. some have non name careers hitting 100+ games
beyond 90--they are likely not to make the nhl beyond a 50 games. If they do they can have careers in the league.

It was posted on this site several days ago.

Read the article. This article corresponds with another i read a few yesrs ago also calculating the odds vs draft position.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

If you want to analyze the points vs draft position and your work checks out by all mean, then I'll quote you.

 

[dirtydanglez]

4th rounder maybe. with another year on his contract habs should just keep him and hope he's more valuable next year.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Can he play RW at all?
Has he been tried on 3rd line?
His numbers in 21-22 looked promising.
Better linemates that year/bigger role?