Hank Chinaski
Registered User
Looking at a few of the other threads, there seems to be this perception that our defense corps has regressed from last season. This might be a fair characterization on paper, as the Jets have lost Ron Hainsey (no matter what you think of him, he's at the very least a decent bottom-pairing guy) and have gained Adam Pardy (who is typically described as an ok #7 guy, nothing more).
My question is this - what about Jacob Trouba? Should we completely dismiss his chances of bolstering the top 4? Or does he have a fighting chance of replacing Ron Hainsey's minutes?
I decided to do a little study. For the sample, I took all defensemen drafted since 2006 that made their NHL debut in the second season after being drafted, just like Jacob Trouba will. I then used their TOI/60 ranking (courtesy of behindthenet.ca) on their respective teams in that season to get a rough estimation of their usage. Note that players who made their debut in these circumstances and were subsequently sent back to junior (eg. Alex Pietrangelo) were also omitted, as this won't be Trouba's fate.
"FIRST PAIRING" USAGE
2008 (#12) - Tyler Myers - 82 GP - #1 TOI/60
2011 (#10) - Jonas Brodin - 77* GP - #2 TOI/60
"SECOND PAIRING" USAGE
2006 (#1) - Erik Johnson - 69 GP - #4 TOI/60
2007 (#5) - Karl Alzner - 30 GP - #3 TOI/60
2009 (#14) - Dmitri Kulikov - 72 GP - #3 TOI/60
"THIRD PAIRING" USAGE
2008 (#20) - Michael Del Zotto - 80 GP - #5 TOI/60
2008 (#15) - Erik Karlsson - 60 GP - #5 TOI/60
2009 (#16) - Nick Leddy - 46 GP - #6 TOI/60
2010 (#3) - Erik Gudbrandson - 72 GP - #6 TOI/60
2011 (#9) - Dougie Hamilton - 72* GP - #5 TOI/60
"SHIELDED THIRD PAIRING" USAGE
2007 (#27) - John Carlson - 22 GP - #8 TOI/60
2009 (#6) - Oliver Ekman-Larsson - 48 GP - #8 TOI/60
PRIMARILY IN AHL
2011 (#14) - Jamie Oleksiak
2011 (#16) - Nathan Beaulieu
*GP is pro-rated for an 82 game schedule
I realize this is a pretty small sample size, and doesn't really make a convincing case one way or the other. I just wanted to do the research myself, and see what we could realistically expect from Trouba based on past precedent.
So what do you think? Any chance Trouba could surprise us and be a first-pairing stud like Myers and Brodin were?
My question is this - what about Jacob Trouba? Should we completely dismiss his chances of bolstering the top 4? Or does he have a fighting chance of replacing Ron Hainsey's minutes?
I decided to do a little study. For the sample, I took all defensemen drafted since 2006 that made their NHL debut in the second season after being drafted, just like Jacob Trouba will. I then used their TOI/60 ranking (courtesy of behindthenet.ca) on their respective teams in that season to get a rough estimation of their usage. Note that players who made their debut in these circumstances and were subsequently sent back to junior (eg. Alex Pietrangelo) were also omitted, as this won't be Trouba's fate.
"FIRST PAIRING" USAGE
2008 (#12) - Tyler Myers - 82 GP - #1 TOI/60
2011 (#10) - Jonas Brodin - 77* GP - #2 TOI/60
"SECOND PAIRING" USAGE
2006 (#1) - Erik Johnson - 69 GP - #4 TOI/60
2007 (#5) - Karl Alzner - 30 GP - #3 TOI/60
2009 (#14) - Dmitri Kulikov - 72 GP - #3 TOI/60
"THIRD PAIRING" USAGE
2008 (#20) - Michael Del Zotto - 80 GP - #5 TOI/60
2008 (#15) - Erik Karlsson - 60 GP - #5 TOI/60
2009 (#16) - Nick Leddy - 46 GP - #6 TOI/60
2010 (#3) - Erik Gudbrandson - 72 GP - #6 TOI/60
2011 (#9) - Dougie Hamilton - 72* GP - #5 TOI/60
"SHIELDED THIRD PAIRING" USAGE
2007 (#27) - John Carlson - 22 GP - #8 TOI/60
2009 (#6) - Oliver Ekman-Larsson - 48 GP - #8 TOI/60
PRIMARILY IN AHL
2011 (#14) - Jamie Oleksiak
2011 (#16) - Nathan Beaulieu
*GP is pro-rated for an 82 game schedule
I realize this is a pretty small sample size, and doesn't really make a convincing case one way or the other. I just wanted to do the research myself, and see what we could realistically expect from Trouba based on past precedent.
So what do you think? Any chance Trouba could surprise us and be a first-pairing stud like Myers and Brodin were?