Jack Hughes vs Kirby Dach

[Machinehead]

We were talking about the top picks in the draft today on HFNYR because the Rangers stink, and this thought sort of came up. I wanted to see what others thought.

Hypothetically speaking, you can have Kirby Dach -that's it, take it to the bank- or a shot at Jack Hughes.

Basically, you sign up for Kirby Dach right now, or you take your chances in the standings and the lottery.

Let's say your team is, well, as bad as the Rangers. (conservatively, bottom 10)

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[talitintti]

Kaapo Kakko

 

[A4T1L6]

Maybe Jack Hughes, cause I still have a shot at players better then Dach (figuratively)

 

[Machinehead]

Kaapo Kakko

 

[ESH]

This seems flawed because if you have a chance at Hughes then obviously you have a pretty good chance at Dach if you don’t get Hughes anyways.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I don’t see how you don’t secure Dach. Only one team is getting Hughes and the team with the best odds still has over an 80% chance on missing out. I guess it depends on what you think of Dach, but I seriously doubt he is available at say 5. Look at Vancouver finishing 2nd worst in back to back years and ending up 5th both times.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I voted "definitely Kirby Dach" but I dont really get the premise - if I'm a team that places dead last, I'll pick shot at Jack Hughes because my odds are better than if I had the 10th pick, and I'll get the 4th overall pick at worst, which is conceivably good enough to get Dach. It would be better if you cleared it up, e.g. 33% shot at Hughes or you pick 8th overall, or something.

 

[lawrence]

Hughes rather easily. He is elite offensive potential
Kirby Dach is good but he is top 6 potential there are like 4 other guys I take before Dach even, let alone a Hughes vs Dach.

 

[Scholarships]

If I was 10th overall I would take Dach for sure.

If I was the rangers I would go for Jack Hughes

 

[cgf]

Gimme the chance of getting Hughes over the guarantee of not getting him.

 

[Josepho]

I might prefer Dach over Hughes anyways...

 

[Lays]

Hughes rather easily. He is elite offensive potential
Kirby Dach is good but he is top 6 potential there are like 4 other guys I take before Dach even, let alone a Hughes vs Dach.

Dach has elite offensive potential as well

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I’ll take Dach unless I’m bottom-2

 

[snipes]

Dach is such a good player. Hard to pass up that size/speed/skill combo.

Hughes is massively overrated anyways.

 

[The Abusement Park]

If you have a shot at Hughes, chances are you still have a really good shot at getting Dach as well? I mean if your a top 4-7 pick Dach will be in that range? So wouldn’t you want the shot at Hughes? Then if you don’t get him then you still have a great shot at getting Dach.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Answer depends entirely on how you rate Dach. Many people have Dach 6-10. More and more people seem to have him as high as 3rd though. If you think he's 3rd and consensus will view him as such in June, you'll need to win the lottery to get him anyway. Given how lottery odds are currently set up, I'd take shot at #1 OA (not sure if that will stay Hughes if his production continues to lag compared to last year) over guaranteed #3 OA only if I finished with worst record in the league. Second worst in league has 61% chance to pick 4th or 5th, and only 13.5% chance to pick 1st. Gap between 1st and 3rd will be much bigger than 3rd and 5th, but your odds of winning are quickly dwarfed by your odds of dropping below 3rd pick.