1. It kind of is. It may be a gamble but that's exactly what it is the longer the deal the more annual cap it's going to take. You're insuring that Ivan is locked up though his prime years. On what it think would be a reasonable contract when he hits his prime.
Buying UFA years from an RFA isn't the same as a UFA contract. In one case, it's beneficial for a player to take a little less per UFA year X number of years from now, given the potential for injury, stagnation, decline, etc., because it's guaranteed money way down the line. In the other case, there's no such longterm benefit for the UFA. It behooves him to maximize his value here and now for as long and as high as possible.
2. Again you don't answer any question I pose to you. It's actually quite frustrating. I'm trying to understand why you don't think a GM would offer him stupid money if he were on the open market. Again every one of those D men you listed Ivan is better than except for maybe Jones, and that's right now not in the future. If Provo were on PP1 what do you think his numbers last year would look like? He was playing 23 min a game while not being utilized on PP1 that's a ridiculous number for a 21 year old in the NHL. He also tied for the league lead in goals, again while not being on the first unit. He would have ran away with it if he was. The reason I asked how many number 1 dmen in the NHL are under 23 on a playoff team is to show you his value. You won't answer because the is only 1 and it is him.
So a calder trophy gets you 7.5 but none of which I stated doesn't.
I've answered your question several times, you just (intentionally?) didn't understand my answer. Let me be as plain as possible.
It doesn't matter. It's a bullshit question. Why does being a number 1 dman on his playoff team under the age of 23 equal 9 million per? It's a completely arbitrary set of criteria that sounds more meaningful than it actually is.
Why under 23? Is there some special significance there or is it merely a cherry-picked number to exclude guys like Seth Jones, Jaccob Slavin, Hampus Lindholm, etc.?
Why number 1 on a playoff team? Does that mean that Provorov is suddenly worth more than Karlsson? If the Flyers miss the playoffs next season, is Provorov suddenly worth less?
Why a number 1 on his team? Does that mean if Provorov had been drafted by the LA Kings or Tampa Bay Lightning that he wouldn't be worth 9 million per, because he wouldn't be the number 1 on either team?
Are all number 1s on playoff teams worth 9 million per? I know Morgan Rielly is 24, so I guess he gets docked some AAV because he's over the magical 23 years old line, but surely he's vastly underpaid at 5 million per. He should be up around 8 million or so by your line of thinking, right?
And why 9 million per? Why not 8 million per? Or 10 million? Or 11 million? You're just pulling a number out of your ass.
There's no evidence that being your team's #1 D on a playoff team under the age of 23 means you are worth 9 million per! Your best argument is Ekblad, but he was a former first overall, won a major award, and he's a unicorn in the world of hockey in that he's a top pairing righthand shot defenseman and he "only" makes 7.5 million per. Never mind that I specifically want to stay the hell away from giving out a contract like that.
3. Manning contact is relevant because I'm not comparing thier UFA/ RFA status. It's just to say a lot of NHL GM's aren't very bright when handing out contracts. Would you pay Manning 2 mil per to be on this team? I would pay 2 mil per for another team to take him.
I was refuting your argument that no one would offer him 9 million on the open market. I believe you are very wrong.
I'm confused, the open market where he's an RFA that a team would offer-sheet and give up additional assets in order to sign if the Flyers didn't just match anyway (aka, aka a scenario that is exceedingly rare) or the magical world where Provorov suddenly is able to turn himself into a UFA right now. You know, the world that doesn't actually exist.
Manning being overpaid has no bearing on Provorov. Two completely, totally, entirely different markets with different market pressures that drive the negotiations between the team and the player.
I mean, after all, if the Oilers are going to pay Milan Lucic 6 million per, they're surely going to have to offer McDavid a max contract. Wait a second...
That’s a pretty good way of putting it
@deadhead. That’s 6.5 cap hit. With a climbing cap it could look like 7x8. I think everyone is pretty much on board with the concept that 6-8 over 8 years is to be expected, it’s just a matter of how he performs this year and what the rest of the market does between now and him signing.
Dude, he's arguing AGAINST your point of view and what he said is pretty much exactly what I've been saying. You just magically turn 6.5 million into 8 million, chalk it up to "cap going up", and then hope no one notices that you've inflated the value of the contract by 12 million dollars.
Also, who saw this plot twist coming: Deadhead being the lucid person in a debate?
So for the past few years Couturier has been worth what other fans offered? He wasn’t worth more to us than he would have been in a trade? Because that’s exactly what we said as a board and it’s identical to the scenario posited here.
*Checks Couturier's AAV on CapFriendly* Yep, still 4.33 million per.
He’s not Hedman/Doughty, but he’s also above all of those defensemen you listed. He sort of is a unique case and it’s unfair to say otherwise. All of those players had just broken out and their breakouts still don’t have most of them as de facto number one’s on their team. Provorov will have been a number one for three years at the time of his signing.
I don’t understand how some can say JVR at 7 “is just market value. It’s where salaries are going”, but think that Provorov, in a more valuable position, in a more valuable role, with zero replacement opportunity will be less than 6. Even as a RFA. RFA deals in recent history have been prove it contracts, or pay it contracts. What does he need to prove? Does he need to play 28 minutes instead of 24? 20 goals with little PP time instead of 17?
I’ll leave it at this, i predict 7x8. Give or take .5m. If he’s less than 6.5 on an 8 year deal I’ll let HFFlyers set the terms of how i absolve myself of the shame.
He's absolutely in that tier of defenseman that were listed, i.e. he's not nearly as unique as you want him to be. He's a great young defenseman. Drew Doughty he is not.
And JVR? *sigh* It's completely irrelevant.
And then you move the goal posts downwards. I've been saying 6.5 on an 8 year deal this entire time. I'm calling bullshit on the 8 or 9 million per claims.
