I know basic maths.
But what’s the outlier: 1 ppg in Oct or 0.25 in Jan? When career avg is 0.41.
surprised you cant see he has slowed down.
I’ll help you out:
Oct 7 pts in 9g 0.78 ppg pacing for 64pts… 26 shifts
Nov 7 pts in 15g 0.47
Dec 6 pts in 14g 0.43
Jan 3 pts in 12 g 0.25 pacing for 20 pts 21 shifts
With all these meaningless games remaining.
Not arguing 35 or 37 pts.
Arguing he is not pacing good.
CBJ have only scored 29 goals in January - half a goal less than what their season average is per game. A lot of guys hurt. I think he is pacing fine. 1 month pacing at 10.3% of team goals when the team isn’t scoring is NBD. Thats not the outlier?
By month with CBJ:
Oct - 30% 2.55 GPG in 9GP
Nov - 15.6% 3 GPG in 15GP
Dec - 15% 2.85 GPG in 14GP
Jan - 10.3% 2.41 GPG in 12 GP
CBJ *should* score around 95 goals the rest of the way, Provorov factoring in on 15% of them, would give him 14 more points which then would have him end up at 37 (just above the 15% involvement mark 36.45 points). If he scores at 10.3%, he would end up with 33 -> equating to 13.5% over the season (which would be his 2nd worst as an NHLer). Not sure I buy that tbh.
2023 - 15.5% involved in CBJ goals
2022 - 12.1% involved in Flyers goals
2021 - 14.7% involved in Flyers goals
2020 - 15.5% involved in Flyers goals
2019 - 15.5% involved in Flyers goals
2018 - 10.7% involved in Flyers goals
2017 - 16.3% involved in Flyers goals
2016 - 13.9% involved in Flyers goals
* * *
All this to say, Provorov could score 30 points and I still think he would have value at the TDL.