It's January 2015 And The Sabres Are Hovering Around .500 .....

[TimMcClure*]

Do you freak out? What does Tim Murray think of the situation and what does he do?

We know last year was an anomaly and unrepeatable. I've never seen a hockey team as incompetent relative to its' league competition as Ron Rolston's 2014 Buffalo Sabres. The team played markedly better for Ted Nolan, the results on the scoreboard were modestly improved. Pro-rated to a full 82 game schedule Nolan's Sabres would have finished 2013-14 with 67 points, 1 point ahead of Florida tied with Edmonton for 28/29th place. Nolan had a bunch of factors going against him, taking over a team partway through a season in complete disarray so mentally shot they couldn't complete 10 foot passes, an inherited coaching staff, key players with one foot out the door and others wondering where they'd finish the season and the one Nolan himself stressed many times, a lack of conditioning that could only be changed over an off season and training camp. I think the 2014-15 are 10 points better than Nolan's 2013-14 team which translates to 77 points and 27th place putting us in the 4 hole for the draft.

If you're a McDavid/Eichel or bust type fan than the enemy is Ted Nolan, Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford and possibly Sam Reinhart. Ennis and Stafford came alive under Nolan and I expect they'll pick up where they left off last season. There is a real possibility that Reinhart shines as a rookie and gives the team a lift. We don't finish last if Reinhart makes an impact and Ted Nolan does what he's done before, getting a team to play above its talent level.

I think Murray would be fine with the team improving and I wouldn't expect him to try to steer us into a tailspin.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[Karate Johnson*]

Stafford, etc will get moved.

Even if we're simply mediocre toward the end of the year there will be a purge of all tradable assets again.

I personally think anyone going into UFA is getting moved no matter what, and in addition anyone who is a "Darcy" guy could get moved (Hodgson) is a perfect example.


We will likely be awful down the stretch even if we are competitive most of the year.



I don't think we'll be any good though. I hope our young guys improve and our goaltending is awful. That's the road to McDavid

 

[Karate Johnson*]

Also, I really want to finish last. But if we finish 29th, 28th etc I think we will be plenty happy that the lottery is changing. Still have a decent shot.

 

[Selanne00008]

I would still be a seller at the deadline for sure. Perhaps make a few moves earlier (ie vanek trade but not That early) so we "ice" a less competative team. If we want to keep drew around that's fine, but if he is tearing it up, if we could package him for another '15 first, even if it's late I would pack his bags.

Probly a couple other guys we could move as well. Meszaros? Dump em early December/January, and ice the least competative team. IMO I would give Samson the try out and then leave him off the roster for the year.

Look what happened the last two times we set the bar. We got a haul for the Vanek trade, and even the Miller trade had the huge potential to be a steal.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Buffalo has the worst defensive center situation in the league unless Girgensons/Larsson are players. That's what will keep us at the bottom, and it's why a checking/PKing center was the one cagey vet Murray didn't target.

 

[TimMcClure*]

Stafford, etc will get moved.

Even if we're simply mediocre toward the end of the year there will be a purge of all tradable assets again.

I personally think anyone going into UFA is getting moved no matter what, and in addition anyone who is a "Darcy" guy could get moved (Hodgson) is a perfect example.


We will likely be awful down the stretch even if we are competitive most of the year.



I don't think we'll be any good though. I hope our young guys improve and our goaltending is awful. That's the road to McDavid

27th is awful, just not awful enough to guarantee McDavid/Eichel. I look at some other teams and I see them being equally awful as us. With the finish line in sight for the McDavid Sweepstakes I think teams out of the playoff hunt by the end of January are going to go into full tank mode the likes we haven't seen before.

 

[haseoke39]

Pro-rated to a full 82 game schedule Nolan's Sabres would have finished 2013-14 with 67 points, 1 point ahead of Florida tied with Edmonton for 28/29th place.... I think the 2014-15 are 10 points better than Nolan's 2013-14 team which translates to 77 points and 27th place putting us in the 4 hole for the draft.

17-36-9 record under Nolan, 43 points in 62 games, prorated to 56 points over a full 82 game season, not 67, still in last place by 10 points. So Ron Rolston cost us 4 points over what we would have achieved "pro-rated" under Nolan.

And if we improved by 10 points over what Nolan did last year, then, we'd be tied for last place.

 

[Karate Johnson*]

27th is awful, just not awful enough to guarantee McDavid/Eichel. I look at some other teams and I see them being equally awful as us. With the finish line in sight for the McDavid Sweepstakes I think teams out of the playoff hunt by the end of January are going to go into full tank mode the likes we haven't seen before.

I guess I'm just not that worse about it.

The prospects and young guys we have, in addition to 10% (or more after more trades) of the first 2 rounds next year, I think we'll be fine.

McEichel would be awesome. But we are going to be a cup contender in 4-5 years either way.

The most important factor in our rebuild is Murray, not any one specific player.

 

[TehDoak]

We are happy that our young players are developing and the team is progressing. If we finish last, its the expectation, we move on. We improve? It's a good thing, not bad.

Success is better for development than failure. You just need to look to Edmonton. If we are .500 team its because our young players have taken tremendous steps forward. Our 'veteran core' isn't good enough (purposefully) to field a competitive team.

Most 1st and 2nd year players fade as the year goes on as they aren't used to the rigors of the NHL and 82 game schedule. Add on top of that the likely trade deadline moving of veterans like Stafford, Stewart and Mezaros, you likely are going to see the team struggle down the stretch.

Purposefully trying to steer a team into a cliff is counter productive and can easily backfire.

 

[TimMcClure*]

17-36-9 record under Nolan, 43 points in 62 games, prorated to 56 points over a full 82 game season, not 67, still in last place by 10 points. So Ron Rolston cost us 4 points over what we would have achieved "pro-rated" under Nolan.

And if we improved by 10 points over what Nolan did last year, then, we'd be tied for last place.

Doh, I took the Nolan record from here:

"The Sabres (20-45-9) haven't done much better at 16-30-8 under Nolan and are ...... " didn't notice the date on the story was March 31st. To be honest those last 2 weeks of the season aren't worth considering considering the rent a goalie situation and the injuries and players dumped at the deadline.

 

[haseoke39]

But we are going to be a cup contender in 4-5 years either way.

We have, frankly, one guy in the system who projects to be a first line forward. And that guy, Reinhart, was noted by many draft observers to be better suited to a 2C role in the long run.

I don't think we turn into a cup contender with what we have in the forward stable.

 

[haseoke39]

Doh, I took the Nolan record from here:

"The Sabres (20-45-9) haven't done much better at 16-30-8 under Nolan and are ...... " didn't notice the date on the story was March 31st. To be honest those last 2 weeks of the season aren't worth considering considering the rent a goalie situation and the injuries and players dumped at the deadline.

I could argue that they're more relevant, because we won't have Miller going forward.

 

[Selanne00008]

Doh, I took the Nolan record from here:

"The Sabres (20-45-9) haven't done much better at 16-30-8 under Nolan and are ...... " didn't notice the date on the story was March 31st. To be honest those last 2 weeks of the season aren't worth considering considering the rent a goalie situation and the injuries and players dumped at the deadline.

While true, the same thing is going to happen this year all under nolan. The team iced in March will be less competative than the team in November. Same variables, just different names being moved.

We will be bad, I'm not too worried about it. Who are really really going to finish ahead of anyways?

 

[haseoke39]

To respond to OP, we should continue doing what we've been doing - sell off the pieces that don't belong here long term, fill their spots with plugs or waiver pickups.

If we do that and we're still not tanking, you've done the responsible thing to try and ensure a franchise forward, and now all you can do is watch. You don't sell off key pieces of the future.

 

[TimMcClure*]

I could argue that they're more relevant, because we won't have Miller going forward.

We won't be playing Nathan Lieuwen and Matt Hackett.

Point of the thread is we are this close to grabbing a generational talent. Letting that opportunity slip by without giving it your best(worst) shot could haunt us. I'd have been happy if Murray signed the worst players he could find to get to the cap floor. One more year of wretchedness isn't much to endure when the payoff is McDavid or Eichel.

 

[TimMcClure*]

While true, the same thing is going to happen this year all under nolan. The team iced in March will be less competative than the team in November. Same variables, just different names being moved.

We will be bad, I'm not too worried about it. Who are really really going to finish ahead of anyways?

Calgary and Ottawa worry me. Toronto, Carolina, Florida, Edmonton all merit consideration.

 

[haseoke39]

We won't be playing Nathan Lieuwen and Matt Hackett.

Point of the thread is we are this close to grabbing a generational talent. Letting that opportunity slip by without giving it your best(worst) shot could haunt us. I'd have been happy if Murray signed the worst players he could find to get to the cap floor. One more year of wretchedness isn't much to endure when the payoff is McDavid or Eichel.

I agree with your second para.

On the first, I think the difference between how Lieuwen and Hackett played down the stretch last year and what we can expect going forward is less than the difference between Enroth/Neuvirth and Ryan Miller circa first half of last year.

In other words, I think we'll be closer to our last twenty games than our first sixty in terms of the quality of netminding.

 

[MayDay]

We won't be playing Nathan Lieuwen and Matt Hackett.

Goaltending will be worse this year than last year on the whole.

Last year we had Miller for most of the year, playing extremely well. This year we have Enroth and Neuvirth.

And if one of those two get hurt, than Lieuwen or Hackett will absolutely be back up. And don't forget that one of Enroth or Neuvirth could be moved at the deadline.

I honestly don't see where the big improvement is supposed to come from. Looking at this roster compared to last year's, goaltending will be worse, offense will be about the same (dismal), and defense will be about the same.

There might be some marginal improvement resulting from internal improvement of young player (and/or Reinhart possibly making an impact), but not enough to make up the 14-point gap that separated the Sabres from 29th place last season.

And I don't buy the Nolan effect. The team played harder under Nolan than Rolston, I will admit that, but the record was hardly any better.

I'm pretty confident that this team is a bottom 3 team this year. And if they're better than that, it will be because our young players have taken big leap forwards in development, which I will be very happy about, so good for them. At that point I'll probably just root harder for the Isles' tank.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

Do you freak out? What does Tim Murray think of the situation and what does he do?

We know last year was an anomaly and unrepeatable. I've never seen a hockey team as incompetent relative to its' league competition as Ron Rolston's 2014 Buffalo Sabres. The team played markedly better for Ted Nolan, the results on the scoreboard were modestly improved. Pro-rated to a full 82 game schedule Nolan's Sabres would have finished 2013-14 with 67 points, 1 point ahead of Florida tied with Edmonton for 28/29th place. Nolan had a bunch of factors going against him, taking over a team partway through a season in complete disarray so mentally shot they couldn't complete 10 foot passes, an inherited coaching staff, key players with one foot out the door and others wondering where they'd finish the season and the one Nolan himself stressed many times, a lack of conditioning that could only be changed over an off season and training camp. I think the 2014-15 are 10 points better than Nolan's 2013-14 team which translates to 77 points and 27th place putting us in the 4 hole for the draft.

If you're a McDavid/Eichel or bust type fan than the enemy is Ted Nolan, Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford and possibly Sam Reinhart. Ennis and Stafford came alive under Nolan and I expect they'll pick up where they left off last season. There is a real possibility that Reinhart shines as a rookie and gives the team a lift. We don't finish last if Reinhart makes an impact and Ted Nolan does what he's done before, getting a team to play above its talent level.

I think Murray would be fine with the team improving and I wouldn't expect him to try to steer us into a tailspin.

Thoughts?

Cancel the rebuild and plan the parade, if this team is close to .500 after 3 months of the season.

 

[TimMcClure*]

If Toronto is scuffling come the new year as they should I expect them to set the Leafs ablaze as deliberately as any sports franchise has ever been torched. Nonis and Carlyle are already dead men walking. The allure of Connor McDavid the hometown boy playing for the Leafs will be too much. I think they'll trade away everybody and anybody except for Morgan Rielly for futures.

 

[JLewyB]

I would say that our veteran talent is equal or less especially with Miller gone, so if we are .500 halfway through the season that means some of our younger talent has made some serious leaps which will nearly offset the loss of getting McEichid. Also we could accelerate the rebuild if that's the case. Not the worse thing in the world

 

[JRiz13]

I agree with your second para.

On the first, I think the difference between how Lieuwen and Hackett played down the stretch last year and what we can expect going forward is less than the difference between Enroth/Neuvirth and Ryan Miller circa first half of last year.

In other words, I think we'll be closer to our last twenty games than our first sixty in terms of the quality of netminding.

Agree with this 100%. I think it's easy to forgot how many points Miller stole us last season.

 

[MayDay]

if we are .500 halfway through the season that means some of our younger talent has made some serious leaps which will nearly offset the loss of getting McEichid.

That's where I'm at too.

The rebuild can't depend on getting one of those two players. It just can't. You can't bank everything on such an uncertainty.

If we don't get one of those two players, it's because our young players are developing very well and very quickly, which is a good thing for the rebuild.

And even without McDavid or Eichel, we still have 3 first round picks in a very deep and strong draft. Which is awesome. I hope people don't freak out if we don't get one of those two guys.

I believe, and sure hope that, Tim Murray is planning a rebuild that can be successful with or without McEichel.

 

[Zip15]

Murray's already addressed this. He'll trade off the veterans (Stafford, Stewart, Meszaros, et al.). I really can't believe people are concerned that we'll even be average next season.

 

[TimMcClure*]

Murray's already addressed this. He'll trade off the veterans (Stafford, Stewart, Meszaros, et al.). I really can't believe people are concerned that we'll even be average next season.

No, not worried we'll be average, worried we'll be just a wee bit less horrible than 1-3 other bad teams.

When I said hovering around .500 I really meant like 5 games under which the way the league is these days is pretty close to the bottom in January.