Is the "tear down" complete?

[HockeyGuruPitka]

I was curious to see if Kadri for Druin gained any momentum. Tampa is win now and Druin is a top 3 pick.

I think there will be some tire kicking in the summer.

I have no interest in Drouin. Rather keep Kadri.

Entitlement is something that has been plaguing the leafs organization for the last decade. I'm a proponent of the phrase "when life gives you lemons, make lemonade" not "when life gives you lemons, **** the lemons and bail". Drouin needs to suck up his pride and earn a damn spot on the lightning.

 

[AppsSyl]

I think we are nearing the end of the tear down, and it will likely be completed in the offseason as mentioned in an earlier post.

Pieces that I think are gonna be moved out before training camp:

JVR (As you can see with kids coming up we have lots of promise at forward, and they won't let the NTC kick in, especially when his contract year I think coincides with the Tavares, Price year and he will want a raise. We will want to maximize the return for a yound D, while his sweet contract still has term.)

Bozak (If we sign Stamkos, there is no room at C especially if we draft Matthews or keep Kadri.)

Lupul (He will either disappear a la Robidas, or somehow be shipped out via some sort of Lou Lam wizardry.)

Pieces we might move depending on circumstance:

Kadri (If we end up with Stamkos in FA and draft Matthews, both Kadri and Bozak are gone for sure.)

Gardiner (We are thin on the blueline right now, but for the right piece, i.e. a younger D I could see us trading him.)

Safe Players
Rielly
Komarov
Nylander
Marner
Kapenen

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Komarov is probably gone within a years time. He talked about wanting to win. He's not young and he's in his prime, if not at the edge of it all ready. Lamoriello might have said he's a core player but Komarov is ready to win and the Leafs are not there yet.

Babcock and Lamoriello talked that Phaneuf was ready to win, but the Leafs are not. That's why he was dealt. This is the exact same scenario with Komarov to me.

I like the guy but we have to cash in while his value is at it's highest. It could/should be an Andrew Ladd kind of return here we're talking about. This is the kind of trade that could give us a core player for 10 years, not just a couple years because he's good in the locker room...

We had super awesome "leadership" guys in the room that did absolutely nothing over the last few years. I think people need to understand how overrated it is.

The Leafs wants to get in a position to win asap. They said a lot of stuff about Dion but I think that was mostly NHL politics, what was expected of them to say. Dont think they where impressed with his leadership and did not view him as a core piece moving forward. With Komarov it is very different. He is in many ways the opposite of Phaneuf. He is some one who not just talk about bringing it but who actually goes out and perform to the best of his ability nigh in and night out. He can teach the young ones everything there is about the grind of being an NHL player.

 

[seanlinden]

Komarov is probably gone within a years time. He talked about wanting to win. He's not young and he's in his prime, if not at the edge of it all ready. Lamoriello might have said he's a core player but Komarov is ready to win and the Leafs are not there yet.

Babcock and Lamoriello talked that Phaneuf was ready to win, but the Leafs are not. That's why he was dealt. This is the exact same scenario with Komarov to me.

I like the guy but we have to cash in while his value is at it's highest. It could/should be an Andrew Ladd kind of return here we're talking about. This is the kind of trade that could give us a core player for 10 years, not just a couple years because he's good in the locker room...

We had super awesome "leadership" guys in the room that did absolutely nothing over the last few years. I think people need to understand how overrated it is.

We should be clear....

Phaneuf was traded because the Leafs were afraid of what his contract would look like in 2 years, and not wanting to have a Lupul-type they're trying to get rid of at that point. It had little to do with "he was ready to win". With Komarov, that's a non-concern.

If the Leafs had any intent of "cashing out" on Komarov, they would've done so with 2 years left at $3m.

Guys like Bozak, Kadri, JvR, Gardiner, Komarov, Hunwick, will only be pushed out, if better options come along.

 

[Prince N]

1) draft lottery position
2) If we get Pits 1rst round pick
3) If Stamkos really signs in TO

These will be better indicators as to how many more guys are moved.

 

[Suntouchable13]

The Leafs wants to get in a position to win asap. They said a lot of stuff about Dion but I think that was mostly NHL politics, what was expected of them to say. Dont think they where impressed with his leadership and did not view him as a core piece moving forward. With Komarov it is very different. He is in many ways the opposite of Phaneuf. He is some one who not just talk about bringing it but who actually goes out and perform to the best of his ability nigh in and night out. He can teach the young ones everything there is about the grind of being an NHL player.

It will be interesting to see how much Komarov will want on his next contract in 2 years from now. It will also be interesting if he is even going to be the same player he is now. Players that play his style usually decline faster, see Darcy Tucker. By the time we become a perennial playoff team, he might be barely a 4th line or out of this league. That's why I am confused why they think of him as a core piece moving forward. He is not 23. I question his effectiveness 2 years from now.

 

[Puckstuff]

I may be in the minority and i'm not sure where others stand but I think we could be competitve even next year.

Generally you need to develop 4 or 5 players in the top 6 and you can probably even trade for 1 or 2 - ie: JVR. You need to develop 2 or 3 defencmen and can trade and sign for bottom pairing guys and bottom 6 players in your forward group.

so top 6 : Marner, Nylander, JVR, and potentially one of Stamkos/Laine/Mathews. We also have Kadri and Komorav. I think we already have some good options in the bottom 6 espicially Komorav.

top 4 defence: Rielly, Carrick, Percy and some other Intriguing options. I think we may have 2 or 3 of our future 4.

Goalie I think you can always trade for quite easily ie: Reimer.

I wouldn't see tanking next year as benneficial and I defintley don't think we will be bottom 10 next year with the amount of skill.

Remember that year TB drafted Hedman at 2nd overall and the next season they made the playoffs?

Or When Montreal tanked and picked Galchenyuk at #3 and made the playoffs the next year?

I likely see a 360 turn around for us under Babs next season. But securing 2 top 6 forwards this June/July is essential and It's pretty obvious who we're targeting.

 

[SprDaVE]

The Leafs wants to get in a position to win asap. They said a lot of stuff about Dion but I think that was mostly NHL politics, what was expected of them to say. Dont think they where impressed with his leadership and did not view him as a core piece moving forward. With Komarov it is very different. He is in many ways the opposite of Phaneuf. He is some one who not just talk about bringing it but who actually goes out and perform to the best of his ability nigh in and night out. He can teach the young ones everything there is about the grind of being an NHL player.

That's your opinion. I think they are in the same kind of situation. Komarov's contract will not be pretty when it's up. He wants to win. Leafs are doing something else.

I don't think the Leafs need to have him as a veteran when they have a couple other players that fit that role. Having Robidas, Clarkson, Komisarek, Armstrong, etc over the years didn't help or make us better. Right now we have Michalek, Laich, Bozak, Lupul, Hunwick... I don't know why Komarov would make a difference there either. The guys love him but it's a business and we have to think with our heads, not our hearts. If value is there for us to get better long-term, you do it.

We should be clear....

Phaneuf was traded because the Leafs were afraid of what his contract would look like in 2 years, and not wanting to have a Lupul-type they're trying to get rid of at that point. It had little to do with "he was ready to win". With Komarov, that's a non-concern.

If the Leafs had any intent of "cashing out" on Komarov, they would've done so with 2 years left at $3m.

Phaneuf's contract and where the Leafs are in their rebuild is why he's gone. I thought that was pretty simple.

At this point it's all a matter of opinions. Many teams that would have wanted Komarov were cash strapped. A trade for Komarov in the summer makes a whole lot more sense for many teams. I'm not against keeping Komarov but if I'm offered something between the Russell and the Ladd trades, I do it and move on. It's that simple.

 

[seanlinden]

At this point it's all a matter of opinions. Many teams that would have wanted Komarov were cash strapped.

A trade for Komarov in the summer makes a whole lot more sense for many teams.

I'm not against keeping Komarov but if I'm offered something between the Russel and the Ladd trades, I do it and move on. It's that simple.

Komarov makes $3m. His cap hit would've been a non-issue for the large majority of teams, and will probably be a bigger issue in the offseason as teams struggle with a flat-cap.

I get that you'd move him, but that's clearly not the approach that Lou has taken.

 

[selltrade]

You need vets, Shanaplan knows not to rush the kids. Nylander and Leivo will be full time next year, but I believe Leipsec, Hyman, Sosh, Brown, KK will all be up and down next year before becoming fulltime. The question is will the top pick this summer, Johnson and Marner get some time as well. Next year will be very interesting.

Same on D, Loov can go back down but Harrington, Percy and Carrick are all out of options. Lou and company will either have them on the squad or trade them, cant see them being lost on waivers.

Hopefully next years deadline is a little more robust and that Greening, Laich, Hunwick are all attractive to teams and the following year Bozak, Lupul and Komarov. Ideally they would like to probably rid themselves of Lupul now but it will be a tough one. Maybe 1 year he gets healthy and can help. The nice thing to see is the depth the Leafs are building up, we wont be able to keep them all but some can be flipped in a package for a Ryan O'Reilly type of deal or dealt for picks to keep the pipeline producing like the Hawks do.

 

[SprDaVE]

Komarov makes $3m. His cap hit would've been a non-issue for the large majority of teams, and will probably be a bigger issue in the offseason as teams struggle with a flat-cap.

I get that you'd move him, but that's clearly not the approach that Lou has taken.

Not many teams yesterday wanted a forward at 3M without having to give some back. Leafs probably didn't want to trade one of their top veterans for much salary back nor would they have retained salary there. Also, it's doubtful any team were offering what the Leafs wanted at the time.

That's clearly not the approach Lou and the Leafs have taken... yet. I have no doubt in my mind that Komarov will be traded as soon as they think they are getting good value back. Both for our sake and his. Maybe not this off-season, but I'd say by this time next year, there's a strong chance we will be saying bye bye to the Finn.

 

[seanlinden]

I may be in the minority and i'm not sure where others stand but I think we could be competitve even next year.

Generally you need to develop 4 or 5 players in the top 6 and you can probably even trade for 1 or 2 - ie: JVR. You need to develop 2 or 3 defencmen and can trade and sign for bottom pairing guys and bottom 6 players in your forward group.

so top 6 : Marner, Nylander, JVR, and potentially one of Stamkos/Laine/Mathews. We also have Kadri and Komorav. I think we already have some good options in the bottom 6 espicially Komorav.

top 4 defence: Rielly, Carrick, Percy and some other Intriguing options. I think we may have 2 or 3 of our future 4.

Goalie I think you can always trade for quite easily ie: Reimer.

I wouldn't see tanking next year as benneficial and I defintley don't think we will be bottom 10 next year with the amount of skill.

Remember that year TB drafted Hedman at 2nd overall and the next season they made the playoffs?

Or When Montreal tanked and picked Galchenyuk at #3 and made the playoffs the next year?

I likely see a 360 turn around for us under Babs next season. But securing 2 top 6 forwards this June/July is essential and It's pretty obvious who we're targeting.

While I actually agree with your overall sentiment, I think you're off on the priorities for the summer.

With JvR, Kadri, Bozak, Komarov, Lupul, Michalek, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen and Leivo all in place, the Leafs likely have most of the pieces required to score a lot more than they did this year.

Even if we assume some natural progression from the likes of Rielly & Gardiner, we're still woefully weak at the top of our blueline. Then of course there's the goalie question.

Suggesting that they'll be outside the top 10 is pushing it. Realistically, they should probably be outside of the top 5.

 

[seanlinden]

Not many teams yesterday wanted a forward at 3M without having to give some back. Leafs probably didn't want to trade one of their top veterans for much salary back nor would they have retained salary there. Also, it's doubtful any team were offering what the Leafs wanted at the time.

That's clearly not the approach Lou and the Leafs have taken... yet. I have no doubt in my mind that Komarov will be traded as soon as they think they are getting good value back. Both for our sake and his. Maybe not this off-season, but I'd say by this time next year, there's a strong chance we will be saying bye bye to the Finn.

Toronto has shown more than a willingness to take salary back to make a deal work... at $3m, the salary the Leafs would've had to take back is totally non-consequential.

The simple reality is -- nobody was offering what the Leafs would've wanted, because the Leafs view him as a core piece. That's not going to change in the summer. In a year, do the Leafs sour on him? potentially so, but that's a long way's away.

 

[BackHandShelf22]

I don't think the Leafs need to have him as a veteran when they have a couple other players that fit that role. Having Robidas, Clarkson, Komisarek, Armstrong, etc over the years didn't help or make us better. Right now we have Michalek, Laich, Bozak, Lupul, Hunwick... I don't know why Komarov would make a difference there either. The guys love him but it's a business and we have to think with our heads, not our hearts. If value is there for us to get better long-term, you do it.

Robidas, Clarkson, Komisarek, and Armstrong were good people off the ice, but never contributed on the ice to a level that was expected of them. Or to a level that was expected from a replacement level type player. So comparing him to those players would be an odd line of thinking.

The leafs have enough picks in the next two drafts. To the extent that they should probably package/deal them for players or pick upgrades on draft day. They can also downgrade and create picks like they did last draft. The appeal of a late 1st, which is what you'd be getting from a team seeking Leo, isn't as strong when you consider those factors. Again, not against it. But it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Especially when he's playing a brand of hockey that's both consistent and in-line with what the coach demands on a daily basis. His value to the team is worth more imo than the late 1st/2nd rounder/prospect.

 

[SprDaVE]

Toronto has shown more than a willingness to take salary back to make a deal work....

The simple reality is -- nobody was offering what the Leafs would've wanted, because the Leafs view him as a core piece. That's not going to change in the summer. In a year, do the Leafs sour on him? potentially so, but that's a long way's away.

Only one way to find out. All a matter of gut feelings and opinions.

 

[SprDaVE]

Robidas, Clarkson, Komisarek, and Armstrong were good people off the ice, but never contributed on the ice to a level that was expected of them. Or to a level that was expected from a replacement level type player. So comparing him to those players would be an odd line of thinking.

The leafs have enough picks in the next two drafts. To the extent that they should probably package/deal them for players or pick upgrades on draft day. They can also downgrade and create picks like they did last draft. The appeal of a late 1st, which is what you'd be getting from a team seeking Leo, isn't as strong when you consider those factors. Again, not against it. But it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Especially when he's playing a brand of hockey that's both consistent and in-line with what the coach demands on a daily basis.

Clarkson and Komisarek were signed to a massive contracts. They were supposed to be these super leadership guys with truculence and bleeding blue. They were brought in for their massive intangibles. They were expected to produce and lead... they did neither.

Armstrong and Robidas were signed to mild contracts but expected to be big time leaders. They were actually signed for what Komarov signed, by the way. They played the game hard, good guys in the locker room and they were expected to 'teach' our kids stuff or whatever. What a waste of time, no?

Now I'm not saying Komarov is a bad player. His contract is fine for now, and he's producing decently well. To me, he's not a long-term player though and this is where it becomes hard to keep him around.

I'm thinking long-term and Komarov to me isn't here beyond his current contract. His value will probably never be as high considering his all-star appearance and career stats. I'm hopeful the Leafs sell high on him if there's good interest. That's my line of thinking.

 

[seanlinden]

Only one way to find out. All a matter of gut feelings and opinions.

Or, we can use some critical thought and understand the situation.

Komarov is a guy that Toronto wants to set an example for the young players. He's somebody who is physical, can play in any situation, any position, and fits very well on a team who has a fair bit of uncertainty in who's going to make it / who's going to play where.

Komarov, much like Polak, is also the exact type of player that teams love to add at the deadline, because of his ability to score 20 goals, but also play a typical 3rd line grinder's role, and get under the skin of the opposition. With him pacing at 30 goals, and only a $3m cap hit, a team would've loved to add him at this year's deadline, and take on the risk of this year being a "one off" for $3m in each of the next 2.

Would they have had to send a salary back? likely. Washington would've sent Laich (Leafs keep Winnik), Chicago would've sent Bickell... anybody else could've accomplished this by sending a guy like Ben Smith.

In the offseason, the confidence & energy that Komarov can bring to a team (pacing at 30 goals) goes away. Not only that, but giving up a boatload of futures, to pay somebody $3m for a full season, makes much less sense, especially in an environment where you're already struggling to keep your current core together.

The simple fact is, in the equation of futures versus players, players are always most valuable (relative to futures) at the deadline because of the reduced salary commitment.

While it's certainly possible that over the next 11 months, somebody can come in, and push Komarov down the lineup, making him not a core player, the Leafs simply aren't going to value him at that lower level until that happens. Same situation with Bozak and Kadri.

 

[SprDaVE]

Or, we can use some critical thought and understand the situation.

Komarov is a guy that Toronto wants to set an example for the young players. He's somebody who is physical, can play in any situation, any position, and fits very well on a team who has a fair bit of uncertainty in who's going to make it / who's going to play where.

Komarov, much like Polak, is also the exact type of player that teams love to add at the deadline, because of his ability to score 20 goals, but also play a typical 3rd line grinder's role, and get under the skin of the opposition. With him pacing at 30 goals, and only a $3m cap hit, a team would've loved to add him at this year's deadline, and take on the risk of this year being a "one off" for $3m in each of the next 2.

Would they have had to send a salary back? likely. Washington would've sent Laich (Leafs keep Winnik), Chicago would've sent Bickell... anybody else could've accomplished this by sending a guy like Ben Smith.

In the offseason, the confidence & energy that Komarov can bring to a team (pacing at 30 goals) goes away. Not only that, but giving up a boatload of futures, to pay somebody $3m for a full season, makes much less sense, especially in an environment where you're already struggling to keep your current core together.

The simple fact is, in the equation of futures versus players, players are always most valuable (relative to futures) at the deadline because of the reduced salary commitment.

You're missing the big point though. Regression. We've all ready seen it in Komarov this season alone. He hasn't scored in how many games?

He's not a long-term player. If he's not a long-term player, you trade him while his value is high, which to me it's now or at least in the short-term. I doubt you'll see another incredible first half of season from him. Teams get to have him at a decent cap hit and still a contributor to their playoff team. It's a win win.

Players like that regress faster than you can blink. He even said himself that he's not getting any younger and he wants to win, which is a pretty normal attitude to have. He never said "I want to be here for the rest of my life". We're not that for him, so I'm sure there will be a time this off-season or during the season when we are still bad that we will do what's best for us AND Komarov. Gain future assets and potential core players that will be here for a decade.

We're turning in a circle now though. Let's move on, shall we?

 

[BackHandShelf22]

I don't understand your line of thinking in regards to comparing Komo and Clarkson to Leo. So I'm just going to move on.

And as a side note, it's impossible to measure 'leadership'. So while those players tanked miserably, it's tough to say what they brought to the table in that regard. Leo produces on the ice. Not just offensively, but in the neutral zone, in the corners and on the PK. That's the biggest difference that sets him apart from those players.

Tough to see what's down the line in 3 years time. All I'm saying is the advantages to trading him and assets gained, won't really be worth it. That's my opinion.

 

[zeke]

well, there's not much more to tear down.

We probably see something like this for next year:

Trade: Bozak

LTIR Shenanigans: Horton, Lupul, Robidas

Try to maximize deadline trade value: Michalek, Laich, Greening, Hunwick, Bernier


VanRyk - Kadri - Marner
Komarov - Nylander - Matthews/Laine/Puljarvi
Michalek - Holland - Leivo
Laich - Froese - Greening
Hyman - Smith - Soshnikov

Gsrdiner - Rielly
Hunwick - Carrick
Marincin - Corrado
Harrington - Percy

Sparks
Bernier


Marlies

Johnson - Leipsic - Brown
Lindberg - Gauthier - Kapanen
Timashov

Loov - Valiev
Dermott - Nielsen

Bibeau

but to be honest I think more of those guys listed as marlies will deserve a shot. I'd be fine with finding away to ditch the 1yr contract guys without worrying about trade deadline stuff. even if that's just waiving them to the minors.

Leivo - Kadri - Matthews/Laine/Puljarvi
VanRyk - Nylander - Kapanen
Komarov - Holland - Marner
Hyman - Froese - Soshnikov
Leipsic - Smith - Brown

Gardiner - Rielly
Marincin - Carrick
Harrington - Corrado
Loov - Percy

Sparks
Bernier

not a very good team, but all of them deserve an nhl shot next year imo.

Marlies

Lindberg - Gauthier - Timashov

Nielsen - Valiev
Dermott

Bibeau


and some may want to slot in the likes of Zaitsev and Stamkos, of course.

 

[BackHandShelf22]

You're missing the big point though. Regression. We've all ready seen it in Komarov this season alone. He hasn't scored in how many games?

Regression in terms of shooting percentage, yes. That doesn't mean he's regressing 'as a player'.

 

[TorontoTrades]

Trade Bozak on the draft floor is the final move IMO.

after that they're ready... trading Kadri is an option but I think they sign him to be that 3C (or 2C is Stamkos or Matthews both don't end up in Toronto)

JVR and Komarov will stay cause they're good leaders and on good contracts. Gardiner will certainly stay, he's been our best DMan and should be our #3 for the foreseeable future.

I still think they'll try and flip some guys for picks however I do think they are entering the rebuild stage this off season. You saw it last night.. the excitement of the future... the kids putting on the blue and white... not 1 year vets signing cheap for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th chance. Assuming they get a top 3 pick this year they'll be adding a substantial piece to Nylander and Marner... all 3 of which will be NHL ready for opening night 2016-17.

 

[SprDaVE]

Regression in terms of shooting percentage, yes. That doesn't mean he's regressing 'as a player'.

I'm anticipating him regressing overall. It's normal, especially for a player his ilk. Maybe not over this year but by the end of his contract.

So keeping that in mind, do you sell him at his highest value, or keep him and trade him (or even let him walk for nothing) for what is likely to be a lesser return in 2 years time? Is it worth keeping Komarov just because he's a good 'leader' in the room versus a couple good future assets? Can't we find good 'leaders' for 1 or 2 year deals like Winnik and Hunwick to replace the loss?

 

[leafsfan2]

Don't mind moving Komorav. He shouldn't be part of core player . If we can get 1st good prospect I would be all over it. Maybe 2nd and A prospect. Any lower and I just keep for development. If someone wants to overpay definitely gone.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I may be in the minority and i'm not sure where others stand but I think we could be competitve even next year.

Generally you need to develop 4 or 5 players in the top 6 and you can probably even trade for 1 or 2 - ie: JVR. You need to develop 2 or 3 defencmen and can trade and sign for bottom pairing guys and bottom 6 players in your forward group.

so top 6 : Marner, Nylander, JVR, and potentially one of Stamkos/Laine/Mathews. We also have Kadri and Komorav. I think we already have some good options in the bottom 6 espicially Komorav.

top 4 defence: Rielly, Carrick, Percy and some other Intriguing options. I think we may have 2 or 3 of our future 4.

Goalie I think you can always trade for quite easily ie: Reimer.

I wouldn't see tanking next year as benneficial and I defintley don't think we will be bottom 10 next year with the amount of skill.

Remember that year TB drafted Hedman at 2nd overall and the next season they made the playoffs?

Or When Montreal tanked and picked Galchenyuk at #3 and made the playoffs the next year?

I likely see a 360 turn around for us under Babs next season. But securing 2 top 6 forwards this June/July is essential and It's pretty obvious who we're targeting.

Montreal was an okay team that just had a bad year when they got Galchenyuk. They made the playoffs the following year because Markov finally was healthy and Subban was almost a PPG player.

Tampa Bay drafted Brett Connolly the year after drafting Hedman so they didn't make the playoffs. They made the playoffs 2 years after drafting Hedman largely on the backs of St. Louis who finished 2nd overall in league scoring and Stamkos who finished 5th overall in league scoring.

Next year will be another painful year for this team!