Is Swiss development now ahead of some of the "big 7"?

[Pokechecker]

Niederreiter and Bartschi are both far from even holding down a roster spot in the NHL, they look like good prospects with lots of potential(seen lots of both) but they still have their work cut out for them. There are Czechs and often times Slovaks drafted pretty much every year with their potential or atleast similar potential and I would guess based on what I know that there will be much more talented players coming from those two countries in the next few years then Switzerland. I do think Niederreiter will be a NHL player, he is far from guaranteed to be a steady top 6 player yet alone a major impact player but im confident he will have a NHL career and he does have the potential to be a impact player on his team. Bartschi is also looking good but he is still young and its hard to judge but the potential is there, though at this point I wouldent bet my life on a NHL career yet, mind you I wouldent do that on probably 90% of the prospects going in to most drafts.

What im saying is to get things in perspective because Swiss hockey still has a long way to go and you will be disappointing if you get ahead of your selves. But I gotta say they are on the right track and if things continue the way they have been its very possible that sometime in the distant future they will surpass Czech republic and Slovakia maybe even this decade.

Like this fortune cookie I had a few years back.

"Keep your expectations low to avoid disappointments"

I don't dare to put Czech and Slovak hockey into the same category-level. Although compared to their glory past and great history both countries have real problems in their junior-development-program. But it's still more or less clear that Czech junior-hockey is better than Slovak-junior-hockey and the Swiss is on the Slovak-junior-hockey-level right now, probably even a tiny little bit better but the Czechs are still ahead of Switzerland - the gap is closer compared to a couple of years ago but it's still a gap. Czech No. 6, Swiss No. 7a and Slovak No. 7b - just my words.
Thomas Roost

 

[james bond]

I think more likely than this scenario is there will be just top2 or top3 countries in 2020.

Unfortunately, you are probably right.

 

[zorz]

I don't dare to put Czech and Slovak hockey into the same category-level. Although compared to their glory past and great history both countries have real problems in their junior-development-program. But it's still more or less clear that Czech junior-hockey is better than Slovak-junior-hockey and the Swiss is on the Slovak-junior-hockey-level right now, probably even a tiny little bit better but the Czechs are still ahead of Switzerland - the gap is closer compared to a couple of years ago but it's still a gap. Czech No. 6, Swiss No. 7a and Slovak No. 7b - just my words.
Thomas Roost

This is pretty much also my opinion.

 

[smitty10]

I don't dare to put Czech and Slovak hockey into the same category-level. Although compared to their glory past and great history both countries have real problems in their junior-development-program. But it's still more or less clear that Czech junior-hockey is better than Slovak-junior-hockey and the Swiss is on the Slovak-junior-hockey-level right now, probably even a tiny little bit better but the Czechs are still ahead of Switzerland - the gap is closer compared to a couple of years ago but it's still a gap. Czech No. 6, Swiss No. 7a and Slovak No. 7b - just my words.
Thomas Roost

I agree with this to an extent, but I still believe that Slovakia is ahead of Switzerland overall (outside of junior hockey). With Gaborik, Chara, Hossa, Halak, etc. they still have the upper hand IMO. I also think that there is a chance that Panik, Jurco, Tatar and Marincin will be better than Niederreiter, Bartschi, Sbisa and Josi.

Just my opinion though.

 

[swissexpert]

Unfortunately, you are probably right.

I don't think so. Of course, Canada will always be the favourite, but on this high level, everything is possible.
I see those groups over the next decade:

A: Canada, Russia, USA, Sweden
B: Finland, Czech Rep.
C: Slovakia, Switzerland
D: Germany, Belarus, Denmark, Latvia
HM: Norway, France

 

[zorz]

I don't think so. Of course, Canada will always be the favourite, but on this high level, everything is possible.
I see those groups over the next decade:

A: Canada, Russia, USA, Sweden
B: Finland, Czech Rep.
C: Slovakia, Switzerland
D: Germany, Belarus, Denmark, Latvia
HM: Norway, France

The point is we don't exactly know how deep will be gaps beetween those groups.

 

[james bond]

Mr Roost,
we have had somewhat of a similar discussion before. Until the IIHF can provide a proper transfer agreement, nations will only temporarly rise and fall. Once all the nations top prospects leave or are poached, programs usually fade. If there was a soccer/futball type system in place for development and transfer fees, the sport may have chance. As per right now, the notion is "spend millions of dollars developing and recruiting players, when the player is 16,17 or 18 send them to the CHL where the clubs can take over from there and receive the NHL development fees."
It will be interesting to see how Russia fares with its new system going forward. Perhaps in a perfect storm things could come together and other nations could participate (at a high level). Of course, that is highly unlikely as the core fan base of hockey does not have any desire to see the sport grow.

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

I don't think so. Of course, Canada will always be the favourite, but on this high level, everything is possible.
I see those groups over the next decade:

A: Canada, Russia, USA, Sweden
B: Finland, Czech Rep.
C: Slovakia, Switzerland
D: Germany, Belarus, Denmark, Latvia
HM: Norway, France

It is pretty hard to predict this things, although this seems a fair representation of what may happen. It definitely seems like International hockey is going through a very large transitional stage right now ; a stage which may define international hockey for quite along time. These are obvious very critical times for Slovakia and the Czechs, but i think the progress of Finland will be also interesting. There is no reason why Finland can't evolve into a min Sweden at the Junior level if they get the fundamentals right within the system. Obviously Russian developments will be very interesting ; how will the continuing NHL/KHL conflict define youth progression and how the implementation of the MHL will change the nature of the Russian development system.

Mr Roost, do you have insight on the progression of hockey in Germany, Belarus, Norway and Denmark? I had heard that Belarus was investing alot in infrastructure (not sure if this is still happening) and considering the supposed passion for hockey there and the links to Russia, one could surely consider them a potential riser in the distant future?

 

[james bond]

It is pretty hard to predict this things, although this seems a fair representation of what may happen. It definitely seems like International hockey is going through a very large transitional stage right now ; a stage which may define international hockey for quite along time. These are obvious very critical times for Slovakia and the Czechs, but i think the progress of Finland will be also interesting. There is no reason why Finland can't evolve into a min Sweden at the Junior level if they get the fundamentals right within the system. Obviously Russian developments will be very interesting ; how will the continuing NHL/KHL conflict define youth progression and how the implementation of the MHL will change the nature of the Russian development system.

Mr Roost, do you have insight on the progression of hockey in Germany, Belarus, Norway and Denmark? I had heard that Belarus was investing alot in infrastructure (not sure if this is still happening) and considering the supposed passion for hockey there and the links to Russia, one could surely consider them a potential riser in the distant future?

Hungary and Latvia are also looking to invest in infrastructure. At best in 25 years, Belarus, Latvia and Hungary could be what Slovakia was 10 years ago. But I dont seem them afire sending Canada, Russia or the US running for thar hills.

 

[0123456789*]

Hey but if you mean if their system is better then yeah it probably is at this point in time as they are producing more and more talented players year over year while Czech republic and Slovakia have seen a steady decline. But it wont last for ever and they are already starting to make changes as far as I can see, one thing that they have begun to do is ban players like Mrazek and Polasek from the national teams, this alone should give incentive for future players to leave the country as juniors under contract so their teams can in that way get payed for their investment while there is no transfer agreement in place. This is good as it brings in much needed money that NA teams otherwise get unfairly for European players, not to mention that it adds incentive to the programs to better develop their players as it reduces the risk of losing your whole investment.

In the long run im sure the trend will reverse, Czech republic and Slovakia might never reach their glory years again but they will be able to compete with the other powers. Also its important to keep in mind that Slovakia is a much smaller country then Czech republic and Switzerland, plus its economy and ability to invest in to sports is not even close to the Swiss and although catching up is still behind the Czech republic.

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

Hungary and Latvia are also looking to invest in infrastructure. At best in 25 years, Belarus, Latvia and Hungary could be what Slovakia was 10 years ago. But I dont seem them afire sending Canada, Russia or the US running for thar hills.

Latvia simply isn't big enough. Hockey is pretty popular there, and although i have no knowledge of the development system there, the quality of the coaches etc, it is sage to assume that Latvia in its current guise is where it will likely remain. Hungary is from what i know much further back than Belarus etc. Again small steps may be going on there, but firstly i assume Hockey and its registered totals is TINY and secondly its investment is small. In a best case scenario (which obviously should be basically disregareded) Hungary could be where Belarus is now 20 years from now. Slovakia was also an elite nation at every level 10 years ago.

Belarus is the interesting case here. It has a big enough hockey pedigree and passion, it has a population of enough proportions, is building ice rinks and of course most importantly, is closely linked with Russia. I'd be very curious to hear from somebody with knowledge on the current Belarussian hockey climate.

As for the original thread ; Switzlerland are clearly on the same level as Slovakia at the Youth level. I believe Switzlerland has much more registered players as well. Any results between the two is now based on the cyclical nature of talent and draft classes rather than anything else. The Czechs are clearly a slightly different proposition and are still stronger than both at all levels. I'd say it is unlikely that the Swiss overtake the Czechs at any level for a sizeable period of time in the future.

 

[Pokechecker]

It is pretty hard to predict this things, although this seems a fair representation of what may happen. It definitely seems like International hockey is going through a very large transitional stage right now ; a stage which may define international hockey for quite along time. These are obvious very critical times for Slovakia and the Czechs, but i think the progress of Finland will be also interesting. There is no reason why Finland can't evolve into a min Sweden at the Junior level if they get the fundamentals right within the system. Obviously Russian developments will be very interesting ; how will the continuing NHL/KHL conflict define youth progression and how the implementation of the MHL will change the nature of the Russian development system.

Mr Roost, do you have insight on the progression of hockey in Germany, Belarus, Norway and Denmark? I had heard that Belarus was investing alot in infrastructure (not sure if this is still happening) and considering the supposed passion for hockey there and the links to Russia, one could surely consider them a potential riser in the distant future?

Yes, I have some sort of insight but by far not as deep as I have in the Swiss/German development and because of the very good relations between the Slovak and Swiss federation, they play each other several times every year with different age-group-teams, so I really dare to judge there.

I definitely see also improvements in the mentioned countries (Germany: Very close to Swiss but the Swiss program and hockey-education seems to be still a little bit better than in Germany although Germany produces a similar amount of very good players but the depth in Switzerland is better). Belarus has a lot of money in their program, build rinks but right now there are not improving much yet but this is just a question of time. Also countries like Denmark, Norway are improving and Austria, Latvia and Hungary, Slovenia also do better than in the past. They are all improving and gap between these countries and Swiss/Slovak is smaller than the gap between the Swiss/Slovak and the best in the world. I would go like this at this point: Player-ages 15-25:
1. CAN 95 out of 100 points
2. USA/Sweden 93
4. RUS 88
5. FIN 86
6. Czech 85
7. Swiss 79
8. Slovaks 78
9. Germany, Belarus 76
11. Denmark, Norway 75
13. Austria, Hungary, Slovenia 70
maybe I did forget some smaller countries who are close to 13 (e.g. France, maybe Italy, England)

Any comments?

Enjoy the day

Thomas

 

[Czechexpert]

Hey but if you mean if their system is better then yeah it probably is at this point in time as they are producing more and more talented players year over year while Czech republic and Slovakia have seen a steady decline. But it wont last for ever and they are already starting to make changes as far as I can see, one thing that they have begun to do is ban players like Mrazek and Polasek from the national teams, this alone should give incentive for future players to leave the country as juniors under contract so their teams can in that way get payed for their investment while there is no transfer agreement in place. This is good as it brings in much needed money that NA teams otherwise get unfairly for European players, not to mention that it adds incentive to the programs to better develop their players as it reduces the risk of losing your whole investment.

Mrazek and Polasek broke nothing, they were without contract and refused to sign another one as offered contract was ridiculous and also would prevent them to leave for NHL in future. That´s all. Basically Cervenka did same thing, didn´t extend contract with Slavia and signed with Omsk. Difference is that Slavia got financial compensation from Omsk by contrast to Vitkovice. However it´s not Mrazek and Polasek´s fault. It´s a fault of former members of Czech hockey federation, people like Kusy or Cernik(by the way chief executive of Vitkovice...) who refused to sign contract with NHL. Reversely, Czech hockey federation should ban all Vitkovice players from youth national teams until Vitkovice changes their policy. Their players would push club to change it because they would leave club to be able to play for national teams.
Czech hockey needs to get rid of people like Cernik immediately, otherwise there will be no progress.

 

[alko]

Ok, lets see to the facts -

SWI - SVK in U20 (all games i can found)
44 games played - 18 wins for SVK, 6 tied, 20 wins for SWI

SWI - SVK on U20 WCH
10 games - 4 wins for SVK, 1 tied, 5 wins for SWI

And dont forget, that almost all players from this year SWI WCH U20 roster play regularly in NLA between seniors!

So, im not happy with my conclusion, but it seems, that SWI hockey is comming to our place.

 

[torero]

Impressive how this beer/bar/internet board discussion turned into a very interesting and informative thread.

Great posts Pokechecker !

When you are not busy criticizing Swiss hockey on TV, you write very interesting things
(hfboards and hockeyfans and other places ...)

 

[swissexpert]

Any comments?

Enjoy the day

Thomas

I would rank Russia about equal to Sweden. I haven't any insight of course, but they've such a big hockey market and a big boost coming in the Olympics 2014. Or do you think the KHL-way of developing young players is much worse than than NA style? If we look at the impact in NA, Sweden has the edge, but on international competition I wouldn't bet on the Swedes in that confrontation.
I'd probably rank them both slightly under USA long-term.

Since you're already here, could you share your opinion on that topic?: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=852675
I opened this thread because I enjoy watching Genoni as much as I enjoyed Hiller in Davos. And because he's still pretty young and did well at the national team too, I made this comparison.
I know you're not a goalie Scout, but do you also think he'll never make it to NA because of his lack of size and potential and do you see his ceiling already reached by being a NLA staerter?
Does he really have less potential than Manzato, Berra or Stephan?

 

[Pokechecker]

Impressive how this beer/bar/internet board discussion turned into a very interesting and informative thread.

Great posts Pokechecker !

When you are not busy criticizing Swiss hockey on TV, you write very interesting things
(hfboards and hockeyfans and other places ...)

I don't agree that I did criticize Swiss hockey on TV, I actually admire Swiss hockey, I have fully respect for what Swiss hockey has achieved and I have deepest respect for all our junior-coaches who spend and spent thousands of hours trying to learn our boys playing this great sport of hockey. I just regret that I didn't point to this strongly enough on TV.

What I did criticize and I still do - and I still do very strongly - is the expectations of medals. It is a partly media- and public-opinion that we are so good that medals should be now expected on the different levels. Swiss TV did ask me about medals and I heavily criticize this because we are realistically quite far away from medals as long as CAN/SWE/USA are that much better than we are and as long as RUS/FIN/CZE are still noticeably better than we are. Not even one single lucky exception did break this rule of simple logic. Not even one single exceptional medal since ages in Senior- or junior-hockey is on our side although we have Championships every year but some still think that we are world-class; we are not but we are good!

 

[FiveForDrawingBlood]

Who was the Swiss goalie in World Junior? They said he was undrafted. i thought he was pretty good. Could be a steal of a pick up on draft day

 

[swissexpert]

Benjamin Conz, went undrafted twice.
Has had another amazing season and WJC, but the main reason for not considering him is his size.
He's just 5'10. I still think he's worth a late round pick without a high risk...

 

[smitty10]

Benjamin Conz, went undrafted twice.
Has had another amazing season and WJC, but the main reason for not considering him is his size.
He's just 5'10. I still think he's worth a late round pick without a high risk...

I have a feeling he will go undrafted again. If he continues to develop then he may be picked up by an NHL team in the future, but I just can't see any team using a pick on a 5'10 goalie. Had Conz been about 6'2 with his current skill-set, I think he'd probably have been drafted in the top 15 of his draft year.


Also, Great posts Pokechecker! You bring a lot of knowledge to every discussion you enter.

 

[MBTendy]

I have a feeling he will go undrafted again. If he continues to develop then he may be picked up by an NHL team in the future, but I just can't see any team using a pick on a 5'10 goalie. Had Conz been about 6'2 with his current skill-set, I think he'd probably have been drafted in the top 15 of his draft year.


Also, Great posts Pokechecker! You bring a lot of knowledge to every discussion you enter.

But I mean using a 7th round pick on Conz won't hurt? I also don't see 5'10 being the main reason. There are lots of goalies who are 5'10 and are very good.

 

[Jaysfanatic*]

Love the Swiss.

Thank you for watches, chocolates, banks, army knives, cheese and Roger Federer.

Hope their hockey program becomes a super power.

 

[ponder]

Excellent post pokechecker, can't believe I actually read the whole thing! But I agree, Swiss hockey has come a long way, they're definitely an up and coming hockey nation, but still have a long way to go when it comes to getting to the level of the top nations.

 

[FiveForDrawingBlood]

Benjamin Conz, went undrafted twice.
Has had another amazing season and WJC, but the main reason for not considering him is his size.
He's just 5'10. I still think he's worth a late round pick without a high risk...

I'd gamble our last pick on him. That is how we got Mark Streit. Thought he was top goalie in tourny.

 

[Pokechecker]

I would rank Russia about equal to Sweden. I haven't any insight of course, but they've such a big hockey market and a big boost coming in the Olympics 2014. Or do you think the KHL-way of developing young players is much worse than than NA style? If we look at the impact in NA, Sweden has the edge, but on international competition I wouldn't bet on the Swedes in that confrontation.
I'd probably rank them both slightly under USA long-term.

Since you're already here, could you share your opinion on that topic?: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=852675
I opened this thread because I enjoy watching Genoni as much as I enjoyed Hiller in Davos. And because he's still pretty young and did well at the national team too, I made this comparison.
I know you're not a goalie Scout, but do you also think he'll never make it to NA because of his lack of size and potential and do you see his ceiling already reached by being a NLA staerter?
Does he really have less potential than Manzato, Berra or Stephan?

I'm walking on thin ice when talking goalies because this is the most unpredictible position in hockey in my eyes. Goalies sometimes come out of nowhere and are from one day to the other in the NHL-spotlight. Who did predict before the season what did happen to James Reimer and Kevin Poulin, maybe very soon Cédric Desjardins will join these two surprises? Jonas Hiller was not even a Swiss junior-national-team goalie as a junior and today... one of the hottest NHL-goalies at this point of the season.

Coming back to Swiss goalie-prediction: Yes, I think that Genoni and Conz have a chance to become NHL-goalies but this is not a bold prediction because there are dozens of goalies not playing in the NHL who have this theoretical chance. Genoni and Conz are both so called match-goalies. If you divide them into single pieces the result wouldn't be very good. Genoni is not the biggest, looks sometimes awful in practice, goes down sometimes too early and is vulnerable in the top-corners if the shooter decides to slow-down his shot for a split-second. Conz is also small and he is not an athlete and stylewise doesn't look the smoothest at all. But....they stop the puck! Both are excellent match-goalies! Potential-wise Genevas Tobias Stephan is the best young Swiss goalie and second-best is Reto Berra. Stephan is big, has excellent smooth and silky movements, technically very sound - the same goes for a lesser extent for Reto Berra - but Stephan and Berra are not yet as good match-goalies as Conz and especially Genoni is. The learning-curve of Stephan and Berra looks slower than the ones of Conz and Genoni but still...if Stephan and Berra would be able to become mentally tougher, more confident and if they improve - what is stilll possible - in the "reading the game-category", I guarantee you that Stephan and Berra will be the best Swiss goalies very soon (except Hiller). The question is: Will they take this next step??? Genoni and Conz already play on a high-level in terms of reading the game and in terms of being mentally tough in clutch-situations and according games. So, what will be the future? I'll be honest and tell: I don't know... I just know that on the goaltending-position there are a lot of potential-NHL-goalies playing in different leagues and whether they will make it depends on a lot of things, it also depends more than in every other hockey-position on being lucky to be the right guy in the right team at the right time.

Thomas / Pokechecker