Is Mueller a 2006 top contender?

[turnbuckle*]

I had an interesting chat with an NHL head scout a couple months ago about the draft, and he was much more excited about next year's top group of prospects. Based on that conversation, and a subsequent one with another scout, my early line for the top six in 2006 would be:

1/ Kessel (without question he's ranked no. 1 right now)
2/ Frolik
3/ Toews
4/ Vasyunov
5/ Mueller
6/ Joensuu

I mentioned Little to them, and they weren't overly enthralled. The ol' "lack of size and subsequent breakaway speed" concerns that has dogged high-scoring junior players since the Dino Ciccarelli days. Corey Locke and Kyle Wellwood are other recent examples. The head scout is notoriously opposed to drafting Russians, but he really likes Vasyunov (as he did Ovechkin and Malkin). He is really high on Toews, and thinks he may end up being the second overall pick if he continues to develop at his present pace.

 

[mercury]

Not that it couldn't happen, but I'd like to hear the rationale for putting Frolik ahead of Kessel. Kessel (at least according to the IIHF) is bigger, more skilled, and has out produced Frolik at the last two tournaments they were both a part of. In fact, he had four times the number of points Frolik did at the u18s. I guess Frolik could go gangbusters this year, but enough to surpass Kessel? I don't see it.

The only thing I disagree with here is that Kessel is in no way bigger than Frolik. Kessel is usually estimated at 5'11" or 6'0" and 170 lbs., and Frolik is 6'0", 175-180 lbs.

 

[gamblor]

1. M. Frolik
2. P. Kessel
3. P. Mueller
4. J. Staal
5. J. Joensuu
6. B. Little
7. A. Vasyunov
8. J. Sheppard
9. N. Backstrom
10. D. Kveton
11. J. Toews
12. K. Okposo
13. N. Foligno
14. B. Maxwell
15. D. Brassard

Mentions: T. Marcinko, J. Tlusty, J. Bernier, B. Brault, J. Armstrong, E.Johnson, R. White, R.McDonough, B. Hughes, J. Hughes, J.Legault, J. Azevedo.

These lists are bound to change dramatically by the end of next years seasons though.

I know of all of them except for "J. Armstrong". Who's that? Where does he play? American or Canadian?

 

[Anthony Mauro]

I know of all of them except for "J. Armstrong". Who's that? Where does he play? American or Canadian?

He's a 6'1''/6'2'' 180 lb center who plays for Plymouth, OHL. He was invited to Canada's U18 camp in July-August.

http://www.plymouthwhalers.com/JohnArmstrong.html

 

[Rabid Ranger]

The only thing I disagree with here is that Kessel is in no way bigger than Frolik. Kessel is usually estimated at 5'11" or 6'0" and 170 lbs., and Frolik is 6'0", 175-180 lbs.

That might very well be. I was just going by the IIHF listings for them. Personally, Kessel seemed bigger than he was listed when I saw him at the WJC's.

 

[turnbuckle*]

1. M. Frolik
2. P. Kessel
3. P. Mueller
4. J. Staal
5. J. Joensuu
6. B. Little
7. A. Vasyunov
8. J. Sheppard
9. N. Backstrom
10. D. Kveton
11. J. Toews
12. K. Okposo
13. N. Foligno
14. B. Maxwell
15. D. Brassard

Mentions: T. Marcinko, J. Tlusty, J. Bernier, B. Brault, J. Armstrong, E.Johnson, R. White, R.McDonough, B. Hughes, J. Hughes, J.Legault, J. Azevedo.

These lists are bound to change dramatically by the end of next years seasons though.

Nice list Balej - I like Sheppard and Staal as the top Canadian hopefuls at this point. I expect Little to rack up the points next season; hopefully he reaches his full scoring potential and is a top pick and contibutor to Canada's WJC team in the future as well, I just don't think it will be this season unless he really dominates the O in scoring. Sutter likes the big, two-way players, and also will lean toward 19 year-olds and drafted 18-year-olds. All three of those guys should be key contributors on the 2007 WJC team, however.

Niklas Backstrom is an intriguing prospect. He was compared to Peter Forsberg by an overzealous coach at the under 18s. Still, he was impressive when I saw him - a smart two-way player, not overly big but a good skater, and competitve.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Mueller is a bit slow. He is big for his age. He should be a high school junior next year. Is excelerating his studies to go to college a year early. And at 6 feet+ and 200+ he is doing just fine. His speed is good, his agility is sub par compared to faster devolpers. Once he fills out and gets used to his body he could be a great player. All around game with size and a great attitude.

And just because i like this stat. Kessel, Mueller, E.Johnson, and Okoposo all future gophers and all should go top 20 in the 06 year.

If Kessel is entering U of Minny this year, and Mueller is only heading there for the 2006-07 season, there is a chance the two of them will never play together again--until the first time they both make the A) NHL All-Star Game or B) U.S. World Cup of Hockey or IIHF World hockey championship squad.

If Kessel dominates the college game as expected, he'll go No. 1 overall in next year's draft and will probably turn pro. In the 'new NHL era', rookies who can hold their own in a more wide-open league will be far more valuable than they would have been in, oh say, 2003-04.

Just my opinion.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Nice list Balej - I like Sheppard and Staal as the top Canadian hopefuls at this point. I expect Little to rack up the points next season; hopefully he reaches his full scoring potential and is a top pick and contibutor to Canada's WJC team in the future as well, I just don't think it will be this season unless he really dominates the O in scoring. Sutter likes the big, two-way players, and also will lean toward 19 year-olds and drafted 18-year-olds. All three of those guys should be key contributors on the 2007 WJC team, however.

Niklas Backstrom is an intriguing prospect. He was compared to Peter Forsberg by an overzealous coach at the under 18s. Still, he was impressive when I saw him - a smart two-way player, not overly big but a good skater, and competitve.

Thanks, .

Good thoughts, but what makes Little so unique is the kid has been doing well since the first time he stepped into the O, which was in 2003-2004. It wasnt like he tore it up, but he was playing like a 2-3 year vet. He disregarded any typical rookie season, no need for breaking in, and put up 58 points in 64 games with 10 points in 12 playoff games.

 

[orangeandblack]

If Kessel is entering U of Minny this year, and Mueller is only heading there for the 2006-07 season, there is a chance the two of them will never play together again--until the first time they both make the A) NHL All-Star Game or B) U.S. World Cup of Hockey or IIHF World hockey championship squad.

If Kessel dominates the college game as expected, he'll go No. 1 overall in next year's draft and will probably turn pro. In the 'new NHL era', rookies who can hold their own in a more wide-open league will be far more valuable than they would have been in, oh say, 2003-04.

Just my opinion.

if the us brass is smart theyll play together again in dec/jan. i also was expecting kessel to look smaller amongst older players at last years wjc's but he looked bigger then alotta guys, hes defintely not 5-10 160, the 6 185 seemed more realistic. its still early, but it looks like the us might have as many top prospects for the 06 draft as canada for the 1st time ever.

 

[Le Golie]

Wow, take a good look at this draft class folks - it has a chance to be one of the best in a long, long time. It is heavily loaded with potential franchise players. There are at least 8-10 dynamite producers here.

In no particular order -
Kessel
Frolik
Mueller
Toews
Sheppard
Okposo
Joensuu
Little
Vasyunov
Staal
Maxwell

Shiite.

 

[turnbuckle*]

Thanks, .

Good thoughts, but what makes Little so unique is the kid has been doing well since the first time he stepped into the O, which was in 2003-2004. It wasnt like he tore it up, but he was playing like a 2-3 year vet. He disregarded any typical rookie season, no need for breaking in, and put up 58 points in 64 games with 10 points in 12 playoff games.

Sounds a lot like Cleary. Stats are stats; the most important ones to scouts being he is under 6-0 tall and doesn't do the fastest lap in the races, unfortunately. Eric Himelfarb came into the OHL and put up solid numbers right away, same with Wellwood and Locke, and lots others (Aaron Brand?) through he years.

I appreciate your opinions, and as I said I hope the scouts are underestimating him. Unfortunately where there's smoke there's usually fire, and if some scouts aren't thrilled about his size and speed, then I'd be really surprised if Little is considered for the top 10. Name the last top ten pick 5-10" or smaller that didn't have superior wheels - Chistov, Weiss, etc. all have good speed.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

if the us brass is smart theyll play together again in dec/jan. i also was expecting kessel to look smaller amongst older players at last years wjc's but he looked bigger then alotta guys, hes defintely not 5-10 160, the 6 185 seemed more realistic. its still early, but it looks like the us might have as many top prospects for the 06 draft as canada for the 1st time ever.

orangeandblack,
thanks for the clarification. Obviously, Mueller could join Kessel in Vancouver for the 2006 WJC.

 

[fastforward]

The only thing I question re: Mueller in the original poster's description is 'very good skater'. I have had very limited viewing of him, but he seemed to me to be a step slower than the other players at the World U-18 tournament. It didn't hurt him too much at that level, and his hand/eye coordination is phenomenal, but I would be a little worried about that skating ability right now. He does have some Dave Andreychuk in him, skating wise, and as we all know that isn't a career-killer but is something to monitor.

The way the NHL wants to open things up, it may be hard for Mueller to get noticed more than Kessel or Frolik before next year's draft.

Peter has exceptional breakaway speed and he turns it on when he has to. I'm not sure what World U-18 tournament you were watching, but he was clearly making plays based on his speed, typically to set up his team mates or taking the shot if he had the opportunity. In addition, Peter is also one of the first forwards back on defense and he is terrific at stopping a developing scoring opportunity of the opposing team. If you are looking for pure break away speed, just ask some of the NCAA Division 1 Coaches Peter and his team mates played against including Michigan State where he easily went around defenders to make the play or score. What makes Peter unique is that he will always make the play, including waiting for the play to develop which in turn creates a higher percentage scoring opportunity for his team versus forcing a play with a fancy move around a defender (looks great when it works....but clearly the odds are low of turning into a scoring opportunity when you do it alone). What I find interesting in these forums is how people usually end up promoting their favorite player while trying to find weaknesses in other players. I'm no exception. I'm a big Peter Mueller fan. He will go high in the draft because of who he is and how he plays the game.

 

[fastforward]

Mueller is a bit slow. He is big for his age. He should be a high school junior next year. Is excelerating his studies to go to college a year early. And at 6 feet+ and 200+ he is doing just fine. His speed is good, his agility is sub par compared to faster devolpers. Once he fills out and gets used to his body he could be a great player. All around game with size and a great attitude.

And just because i like this stat. Kessel, Mueller, E.Johnson, and Okoposo all future gophers and all should go top 20 in the 06 year.

Peter Mueller's agility for a 6'2" 200+ centerman is exceptional. It is clearly one of his biggest assets. You cleary have not followed Peter or his progression (probably haven't seen Peter skate in two years when he left Minnesota High School hockey. Peter plays a pro style game. He turns the speed on when he has to and his vision of making a play and letting a play develop is exceptional. Anyone who understands hockey can clearly see this. From what I'm told, that's why his team mates love to be on Peter's line....he will get them the puck if they have a better opportunity. As far as speed, I'm not sure where you are coming from. If you are a Gopher fan, if I recall, Mueller had 3 assists in the U-18 game against Minnesota. 2 of the assists came from exceptional speed bypassing Minnesota defenders and making a play to set up easy one-timers. His other assist came off the Power-play (back door pass for a Kessel one-timer). I agree with you he is doing fine, however, give the kid some credit for his exceptional skills versus misinformation to promote your favorite Gopher (or future Gopher) whoever that is. Peter will go high in the draft because of who he is and how he plays the game.

 

[Blind Gardien]

I appreciate your opinions, and as I said I hope the scouts are underestimating him. Unfortunately where there's smoke there's usually fire, and if some scouts aren't thrilled about his size and speed, then I'd be really surprised if Little is considered for the top 10. Name the last top ten pick 5-10" or smaller that didn't have superior wheels - Chistov, Weiss, etc. all have good speed.

Does Brule, really? The others that come to mind were Upshall and Langkow, who are listed above 5-10, technically, although it would have been hard to prove that to me on draft day. And Bouchard. Anyway, I don't disagree with your basic premise: Little is probably not a top-10 pick as of today. Alex Bourret might sneak in this year too. But the thing with Brule, Langkow, Bourret and Upshall is that they bring something else to the table to make up for any lack of blazing speed: some grit and aggressiveness. Little doesn't bring that. P.M Bouchard is perhaps the only comparable I can think of, in terms of diminutive stature, not special speed, and no particular mean streak. So it can happen, but it's rare. Is Little going to make it in? If he was up for this year's draft, I'd bet no. If the league's rule changes make some GMs rethink the game, and if some smaller softer non-speedy forwards suddenly have great success under whatever rule changes emerge this year, then who knows.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Peter Mueller's agility for a 6'2" 200+ centerman is exceptional. It is clearly one of his biggest assets. You cleary have not followed Peter or his progression (probably haven't seen Peter skate in two years when he left Minnesota High School hockey. Peter plays a pro style game. He turns the speed on when he has to and his vision of making a play and letting a play develop is exceptional. Anyone who understands hockey can clearly see this. From what I'm told, that's why his team mates love to be on Peter's line....he will get them the puck if they have a better opportunity. As far as speed, I'm not sure where you are coming from. If you are a Gopher fan, if I recall, Mueller had 3 assists in the U-18 game against Minnesota. 2 of the assists came from exceptional speed bypassing Minnesota defenders and making a play to set up easy one-timers. His other assist came off the Power-play (back door pass for a Kessel one-timer). I agree with you he is doing fine, however, give the kid some credit for his exceptional skills versus misinformation to promote your favorite Gopher (or future Gopher) whoever that is. Peter will go high in the draft because of who he is and how he plays the game.

http://www.usahockey.com/servlets/F...3BA5FE009/peter mueller 04 ntdp v nhl 800.gif

Looks like a fine skater with exceptional balance to me.

 

[MN_Gopher]

I was at the gopher game. The gophers had 3 freshman D men. O minded of late Vanneli, Chris all i wanted to do was hit Kessel in the open ice and PJ i just got back. I could have had open ice in that game. At least if Judd had played there might have been some D. So Mueller rushing up the ice was more of a result of our D pinching rather than his speed. Our D combined for 1g and 3a. We weren't exactly sitting back. What i mean by lack of mobility is pretty much the same thing for all big or power type players. Along with Mueller, Kris Chucko and Blake Wheeler i put in the same category. They have great skills. Speed and puck handling. But in traffic they get poke checked or just fumble. They are to big and do not have that fluid motion yet. I know u can point out that one game when he did that great move. Its not a knock on them. It just means they are big teenagers and are stil growing. Kessel is a guy who has his body. Mueller has the potential to be a great player. If he had that fluid motion and could stick handle in traffic, and still play as smart as he is. There would be no question that he would go #1 instead of Kessel or Frolik.