Is it time to rebuild?

[Xanadude]

Again, realistically we're going to be weaker on paper than the heavy hitters in our division and a serious injury to a Binnington/ROR/Parakyo could turn us into a bubble team at best. Still we have players signed and in their primes and I would be flabbergasted if this ownership group, spending to the cap, decided to reconstruct the roster before at least trying a coaching change or core shakeup trade.

Should we rebuild? Probably, as we need a Dallas/Montreal/2017 Nashville or Ottawa kind of run in order to go deep...but I don't think a rebuild happens for at least another year, even if we bottom out.

 

[The Note]

Regardless of whether you think they should rebuild or not, it is almost certainly not happening this year, given everything we have heard from DA and Stillman. I am at least interested to see what the team looks like on the other side of ED, UFA, draft but it would certainly take a series of moves - at least one of which that would need to be substantial - to consider this team a true contender and I remain skeptical that will happen.

 

[Spektre]

So you would feel better watching a worse team? I really don't get this line of thinking from a fan perspective. This team has invested a lot of time, money and energy to build this team yet fans want them to tear it down just two years after winning a Cup because they are so eager to start a rebuild? That's a head scratcher for me. Being a fan of any team requires having a bit of faith, and it seems like a portion of this fan base has none whatsoever.

I don't think teams need to always follow the "tear it down and rebuild" approach. And if you haven't noticed, it's far from a guarantee of success. If the team keeps trending downward after this year, then we can talk but the Blues aren't going to abandon their long term plan just because of one disappointing, injury-riddled season. You want to alienate ROR, Schenn, Parayko, Binner, and the rest of the team by waving the while flag right now? Not to mention a large portion of the fan base who aren't HF nerds, and aren't always trying to outthink Armstrong and the front office.

Feel free to disagree with some moves he's made, but it's silly when fans act like Armstrong doesn't know what he's doing as if he somehow lucked into his current position. The team is still a business and they have to make smart business moves, and I fail to see how starting a rebuild right now is good for business.

I never said I would feel better watching a team we know isn't competing. I also never surmised Army doesn't know what he's doing. Rebuilds are all but inevitable at some point. The question becomes is it better to start the rebuild now or 2-4 years from now?

It's going to be an interesting off-season. I don't see a realistic way Army puts together a roster that is substantially better than last year but we'll see.

 

[TruBlu]

I've not seen any comments from DA or Stillman since the news broke about Tarasenko wanting out in regards to whether we are still going to be cup competitive. Of course he's going to say that, but the reality is that our cupboard is bare and our core is incomplete. There are quite a few holes to fill, and Tarasenko just compounds that. I'm not sure DA isn't waiting to see how the expansion/reg draft plays out before making a decision which route we are going to go. We are potentially losing Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Hoffman. That's a lot of scoring to remove from the roster without knowing who will be replacing it. We weren't exactly in the top tier category of offensive teams. That, in addition to the step back defensively last year, probably puts us at the bubble or even out of the playoffs depending on injuries, etc. I hate to waste Parayko and ROR's prime years, but it may be time to start stocking draft picks and moving in cost effective players and prospects. Ideally, last year I thought we probably had a couple years left to push for a cup. I'm leaning more to a rebuild now. I just don't see any way to address all of the holes in a flat cap situation that puts us anywhere in a position to be anything other than a wildcard.

 

[Blueston]

I've not seen any comments from DA or Stillman since the news broke about Tarasenko wanting out in regards to whether we are still going to be cup competitive. Of course he's going to say that, but the reality is that our cupboard is bare and our core is incomplete. There are quite a few holes to fill, and Tarasenko just compounds that. I'm not sure DA isn't waiting to see how the expansion/reg draft plays out before making a decision which route we are going to go. We are potentially losing Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Hoffman. That's a lot of scoring to remove from the roster without knowing who will be replacing it. We weren't exactly in the top tier category of offensive teams. That, in addition to the step back defensively last year, probably puts us at the bubble or even out of the playoffs depending on injuries, etc. I hate to waste Parayko and ROR's prime years, but it may be time to start stocking draft picks and moving in cost effective players and prospects. Ideally, last year I thought we probably had a couple years left to push for a cup. I'm leaning more to a rebuild now. I just don't see any way to address all of the holes in a flat cap situation that puts us anywhere in a position to be anything other than a wildcard.

They obviously knew that Tarasenko wanted out well before the story broke. Don't think this changes anything.

 

[TruBlu]

They obviously knew that Tarasenko wanted out well before the story broke. Don't think this changes anything.

True, but they aren't going to just put that information out there. It would have reduced any return we would have gotten on him. They are going to parrot that "cup window" mantra whether they believe it or not until the gig is up. Under the current circumstances it seems pretty clear to me that the whole league knows the gig is about up.

 

[Blueston]

True, but they aren't going to just put that information out there. It would have reduced any return we would have gotten on him. They are going to parrot that "cup window" mantra whether they believe it or not until the gig is up. Under the current circumstances it seems pretty clear to me that the whole league knows the gig is about up.

We shall see. We have lots of flexibility and cap space at the moment and an aggressive GM. I don't see any reason to burn it all down.

 

[TruBlu]

We shall see. We have lots of flexibility and cap space at the moment and an aggressive GM. I don't see any reason to burn it all down.

I'm not advocating for a fire sale yet. A rebuild that features a transition to a younger core around guys like Thomas, Kyrou, etc. would be more prudent and would have us back in a position for another cup window in a couple of years. The cap space won't be the issue. The issue is that we have several holes to fill on the forward side, a solid defender on the back end, and still in dire need of a backup goalie. With no real prospects to sweeten the pot we are basically down to a middle first round pick as the only thing of value. Anyone we get that will have value out of free agency means massive term and money. Those are things we need to be steering clear of right now. I worry that a fire sale is on the horizon if we continue to neglect the farm and trade our draft picks away.

 

[Brian39]

I'm not in rebuild mode at the moment. I don't think that ripping the bandaid off today gets us to the end of a rebuild any faster than if we wait at least 6 months. The flat cap and tangible financial losses from a (mostly) fanless season makes this summer more of a buyer's market than any summer for as long as I can remember. Kicking off a rebuild now by selling our assets at pennies on the dollar seems foolish. The draft is a gigantic crapshoot this year, so I'd rather focus on acquiring 2022 draft picks anyway. A successful rebuild isn't just getting into the top 5 at the draft once or twice. It is also about selling the valuable assets you currently have for other assets that will help when your window is reopening.

Jeff Marek has spent a lot of time over the past couple weeks talking about the wisdom of using time when you have it. I think you spend this summer doing what appears to be a re-tool by shedding any bad contracts you can and creating cap flexibility. Use that cap to buy a couple short-term UFAs (even on inflated AAVs) that can make the current roster competitive. And then focus on extending Parayko. If Parayko extends, then the focus is on maximizing the current core's window. If Parayko wants to explore UFA, then you trade him at the deadline and (probably) move those short-term UFAs you brought in. Retain some salary to maximize your asset value and look towards a huge 2022 draft.

For me, the true decision point of a full blow rebuild doesn't need to be made right now, so we shouldn't commit to it. Given the overall landscape around the league, I just don't see a rebuild now actually speeding the process up than one that starts later.

 

[Stealth JD]

I'm not in rebuild mode at the moment. I don't think that ripping the bandaid off today gets us to the end of a rebuild any faster than if we wait at least 6 months. The flat cap and tangible financial losses from a (mostly) fanless season makes this summer more of a buyer's market than any summer for as long as I can remember. Kicking off a rebuild now by selling our assets at pennies on the dollar seems foolish. The draft is a gigantic crapshoot this year, so I'd rather focus on acquiring 2022 draft picks anyway. A successful rebuild isn't just getting into the top 5 at the draft once or twice. It is also about selling the valuable assets you currently have for other assets that will help when your window is reopening.

Jeff Marek has spent a lot of time over the past couple weeks talking about the wisdom of using time when you have it. I think you spend this summer doing what appears to be a re-tool by shedding any bad contracts you can and creating cap flexibility. Use that cap to buy a couple short-term UFAs (even on inflated AAVs) that can make the current roster competitive. And then focus on extending Parayko. If Parayko extends, then the focus is on maximizing the current core's window. If Parayko wants to explore UFA, then you trade him at the deadline and (probably) move those short-term UFAs you brought in. Retain some salary to maximize your asset value and look towards a huge 2022 draft.

For me, the true decision point of a full blow rebuild doesn't need to be made right now, so we shouldn't commit to it. Given the overall landscape around the league, I just don't see a rebuild now actually speeding the process up than one that starts later.

Yep. They're not ready for a full rebuild yet; but they could find themselves looking at a major overhaul in a hurry if they get off to a bad start or find out their supposed #1D man plans to test free agency.

 

[Thallis]

I'm not in rebuild mode at the moment. I don't think that ripping the bandaid off today gets us to the end of a rebuild any faster than if we wait at least 6 months. The flat cap and tangible financial losses from a (mostly) fanless season makes this summer more of a buyer's market than any summer for as long as I can remember. Kicking off a rebuild now by selling our assets at pennies on the dollar seems foolish. The draft is a gigantic crapshoot this year, so I'd rather focus on acquiring 2022 draft picks anyway. A successful rebuild isn't just getting into the top 5 at the draft once or twice. It is also about selling the valuable assets you currently have for other assets that will help when your window is reopening.

Jeff Marek has spent a lot of time over the past couple weeks talking about the wisdom of using time when you have it. I think you spend this summer doing what appears to be a re-tool by shedding any bad contracts you can and creating cap flexibility. Use that cap to buy a couple short-term UFAs (even on inflated AAVs) that can make the current roster competitive. And then focus on extending Parayko. If Parayko extends, then the focus is on maximizing the current core's window. If Parayko wants to explore UFA, then you trade him at the deadline and (probably) move those short-term UFAs you brought in. Retain some salary to maximize your asset value and look towards a huge 2022 draft.

For me, the true decision point of a full blow rebuild doesn't need to be made right now, so we shouldn't commit to it. Given the overall landscape around the league, I just don't see a rebuild now actually speeding the process up than one that starts later.

The finances may be so, but I think Seattle will be using its blank slate to be the cap relief du jour for a lot of these strapped teams. If I'm Tampa and Colorado, I'm trying to figure out which big contract to move to them so I can keep the guys I really want. Could give a lot more flexibility to teams to make moves

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

We shall see. We have lots of flexibility and cap space at the moment and an aggressive GM. I don't see any reason to burn it all down.

My thoughts exactly. With the amount of cap space and favorable environment for UFA, the Blues have an opportunity to retool adequately to be in the mix. I find it a little dramatic to be adamant about a rebuild at this point. We can't predict what the roster looks like by training camp, but it could be significantly more appealing than the half-full roster we see when projecting a bunch of guys walk. If ever there was a season for Armstrong to hit a homerun, this is it. The Blues' fortunes could swing either direction significantly depending on his moves.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

I don't think full-on rebuild is needed, either. Sure, our roster leaves something to be desired right now. It's not that we are devoid of talent or that our talent is seeing the sand run out of the hour glass of their careers (yet), we have just added talent that does not fit the mold of the team.

It's easy to say change the character of the team, but the formula we had in 2019 (strong defense, opportune offense) works in the playoffs. It always has. How many times during the playoffs did the game announcers point out our defense was not nearly the same as it was two years prior?

Binnington is not a sieve, but he's not vintage Roy, Brodeur, Hasek, Dryden, or any other stonewall between the pipes. He can make saves that remind us of those guys, but he also gives up rebounds and needs a defense that can either collect them, keep opposing forwards away from them, or push them into harmless territory. It sounds basic, but we were not good at that this past year. We weren't good at keeping people out of prime scoring areas relatively undefended, either. In 2019, we were pretty good at those things as well as blocking shots. We need to bring back part of that.

I've said this before, but we correctly assumed we could not stand still after 2019. The problem, IMO, is we tried to get better on offense in a way that compromised our defense an equal amount or more.

If you have Vasilevski, Varlamov or vintage Price, maybe you have that luxury. But, we are more like the Avalanche, where Grubauer looks a lot more like those guys when their defense is holding up their end of the bargain, limiting shots (including blocking them) and clearing out rebounds. That is true for all but a small handful of teams.

Our offense needs to come primarily from the forwards and the defense needs to defend. That is boring during the regular season, but it looks like gold in the playoffs. The goal is to win in the playoffs, not fixate on the President's Trophy. I think that is still achievable, although if we keep adding pieces that compromise the defensive effort, it won't be forever. As it is, we have some work to do, but it is not yet at a point where you trade ROR and start over, or something similar. It is a large retool and some hope that players like Krug will mesh better next year than they did last. But, the alternative is waving the white flag, and that is no guarantee of success down the road, either.

 

[Brian39]

The finances may be so, but I think Seattle will be using its blank slate to be the cap relief du jour for a lot of these strapped teams. If I'm Tampa and Colorado, I'm trying to figure out which big contract to move to them so I can keep the guys I really want. Could give a lot more flexibility to teams to make moves

Completely agree. I think it is far from certain that Seattle would take one of our big contracts if they were exposed. I think it is more likely that they would avoid them since teams are probably chucking assets at them to take dead weight. However, my thinking is that I'd be happy to see them take a big contract and then if they don't take one then that means we successfully protected a few extra depth guys so that the player we do lose is slightly less impactful than we would have lost had we protected the big contracts. If they pass on Krug because they are using all of their "disposable" cap space for cap dump trades, then the outcome is that we still protected Dunn by exposing Krug.

If I was Seattle, I would not be trying to build a win-now team. Barring an appearance in the Final, they won't live up to the lofty expectations of the first Vegas season. Moreover, I don't think that they need to be a top team right off the bat in order to be financially successful. People are starved for things to do coming out of this pandemic and they sold out their season tickets quickly. I think they can do just fine financially if they are merely a competitive bubble team in the first couple years. With all that in mind, I would be focusing on stockpiling as many futures assets as possible while retaining maximum cap flexibility for 2022 and beyond. Given the reality of a flat cap, I don't think it is unrealistic that Seattle could wind up sitting on four or five first round picks in the 2022 draft plus a number of 2nds/3rds. If I were them, I would avoid most big money deals that will age poorly and focus on getting picks in return for taking contracts that are dead money for the next 1-2 years. I think they can still build a good team for 2021/22 with that as the primary goal.

 

[Brian39]

Binnington is not a sieve, but he's not vintage Roy, Brodeur, Hasek, Dryden, or any other stonewall between the pipes. He can make saves that remind us of those guys, but he also gives up rebounds and needs a defense that can either collect them, keep opposing forwards away from them, or push them into harmless territory. It sounds basic, but we were not good at that this past year. We weren't good at keeping people out of prime scoring areas relatively undefended, either. In 2019, we were pretty good at those things as well as blocking shots. We need to bring back part of that.

Absolutely spot on.

The way our D was constructed in 2019 perfectly limited the number of times Binner's stylistic weaknesses were able to be exploited. My biggest concern about the contract we gave Binner is that the organization has constructed the D to a group that no longer excels at hiding his weaknesses. (Almost) all goalies have holes and it is not a knock on Binner to say that he has holes. He is borderline elite at stopping the first shot when he has the confidence that he can aggressively challenge because the D will clear rebounds, take away the back door and cover wrap around attempts. When the D isn't doing all those things, he has to adapt his game and the holes get exposed.

Our offense needs to come primarily from the forwards and the defense needs to defend. That is boring during the regular season, but it looks like gold in the playoffs. The goal is to win in the playoffs, not fixate on the President's Trophy. I think that is still achievable, although if we keep adding pieces that compromise the defensive effort, it won't be forever. As it is, we have some work to do, but it is not yet at a point where you trade ROR and start over, or something similar. It is a large retool and some hope that players like Krug will mesh better next year than they did last. But, the alternative is waving the white flag, and that is no guarantee of success down the road, either.

Not sure I fully agree with this. Part of our strength in 2019 is that the D defended exceptionally well AND chipped in a good chunk of offense. We had 11 goals and 45 assists from the blue line during the 2019 playoffs. Petro scored at a 60 point pace, Parayko scored at a 37 point pace, Dunn scored at a 32 point pace, Eddy scored at a 26 point pace and Bo scored at a 22 point pace. That's top 10 offensive contribution from your blue line. The identity/style needs to be about defending first, but you also need the talent to chip in offensively while doing that.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Our Cup-Winning D was built on excellent skating, size/reach, and the ability to quickly transition the puck up the ice via either passing or skating. We are severely lacking players that have two, much less three, of those traits now.

 

[Thallis]

Yeah we have worse offense from D now than we did in 2019. The offense from our forwards has always been more acceptable than exceptional.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Absolutely spot on.
Not sure I fully agree with this. Part of our strength in 2019 is that the D defended exceptionally well AND chipped in a good chunk of offense. We had 11 goals and 45 assists from the blue line during the 2019 playoffs. Petro scored at a 60 point pace, Parayko scored at a 37 point pace, Dunn scored at a 32 point pace, Eddy scored at a 26 point pace and Bo scored at a 22 point pace. That's top 10 offensive contribution from your blue line. The identity/style needs to be about defending first, but you also need the talent to chip in offensively while doing that.

My statement on our ideal D role was probably more absolute than I intended. A lot of goals start life at the blue line. The first two goals in Game 7 of the 2019 SCFs either started at the blue line (the ROR deflection) or by an attacking D (Petro). But, our D needs to be "D First" since the goalie needs a little help back there. I think Faulk could find the sweet spot in this equation, if he isn't in it somewhere, already. I hope Krug can, but that remains to be seen.

I do not discount the impact of how the last two seasons have been played and prepared for (for 2020, the playoffs, for 2021, the entire thing) on player transitions into new environments and systems. I think we have defensive problems, but I don't feel like I really know the extent. We know the numbers, but at times our D looked like the Keystone Kops out there, and that could have been a result of the way the seasons were conducted. It was a bad time to be breaking in new players, even veterans from other teams.

 

[Frenzy31]

My statement on our ideal D role was probably more absolute than I intended. A lot of goals start life at the blue line. The first two goals in Game 7 of the 2019 SCFs either started at the blue line (the ROR deflection) or by an attacking D (Petro). But, our D needs to be "D First" since the goalie needs a little help back there. I think Faulk could find the sweet spot in this equation, if he isn't in it somewhere, already. I hope Krug can, but that remains to be seen.

I do not discount the impact of how the last two seasons have been played and prepared for (for 2020, the playoffs, for 2021, the entire thing) on player transitions into new environments and systems. I think we have defensive problems, but I don't feel like I really know the extent. We know the numbers, but at times our D looked like the Keystone Kops out there, and that could have been a result of the way the seasons were conducted. It was a bad time to be breaking in new players, even veterans from other teams.

I feel like our system was also different. We played far more man to man this past year. When we won the cup, the first thing Chief did was dump the man to man and crowded the front of the net that kept the shot down and allowed the D to clean up rebounds. The few months prior to Chief they tried the man to man thing and it failed spectacularly.

I understand the concept of 5 man units, but I don't think it works very well for this team.

 

[MissouriMook]

I feel like our system was also different. We played far more man to man this past year. When we won the cup, the first thing Chief did was dump the man to man and crowded the front of the net that kept the shot down and allowed the D to clean up rebounds. The few months prior to Chief they tried the man to man thing and it failed spectacularly.

I understand the concept of 5 man units, but I don't think it works very well for this team.

Part of this is on the goalie, too. For all of his strengths, Binny gives up way too many rebounds and doesn't seem particularly good at directing them away from the high danger areas. He needs to work on his shot absorption and the stick and blocker techniques of moving pucks away to low danger areas.

 

[Ranksu]

How Army has played his cards we arent re-build mode yet. It will come sooner if he and Stillman thinks we are Cup Contenders. We are Pretenders.

I would hope and I would see as possibility for quick re-tool. Trade away pending UFA's. Schwartz, Hoffman, Bozak at TDL. At least get something return. Ofc not all of them would get traded,but at least one of them.

Re-tool in fly and play smart.

Re-evaluate Krug and Faulk.

Re-evaluate what is team identity? I have now idea what it is. Coach say hard forecheck and grind style and our f d-core is weak as hell.

If you keep midgets then fix your coaching staff, add there coach who get best of Krug and Faulk Use their best attributes. Dont force them to play where they are worst. Dont force them to play what they are paid for.

Whole team is such a mess now. I dont know does even Army know what he is pushing for.

But if we continue Bleeding our best players away for nothing it's going to be re-build and veeeeeeeeery deeeeeeeepressing decades.

And yes I will say 'I told you so' and those Army lovers can crawl back their fox holes.

Letting Pietro walk was this franchise worst move by all time.

 

[boots legrand]

The prospect pool is extremely slim. The roster is built to kill with a 1000 cuts vs superstars. I don’t see how the team will have the depth going forward to really be a serious contender. I expect it to be a very busy offseason but I can’t envision how Army makes the roster better overall.

I know Army won’t do so but I would feel better if the rebuild started sooner rather than in another couple of years.