Is Crosby overrated?

[Nalens Oga]

I think he's underrated. First player to fill the draft pick hype since the 80s. First player to dominate the league like Lemieux or Gretzky did since either of those two.

To be a star for 3 seasons in today's NHL is extremely impressive imo, to do it 6 yrs in a row and now so far ahead of anyone else is ridiculous. If he keeps playing like this for some more seasons then he'll go down as the 4th-10th best fwd to play the game for me.

 

[Big Phil]

Seriously? You think a broken jaw makes his career more Lindrosesque?

I don't know how that works, but this was a random occurrence that at the end of the day won't keep him out longer than 12 games, not a huge percentage from a career perspective.

Big Phil can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he used "Lindrosesque" to describe a player with unlimited potential but can't stay on the ice long enough to fill the trophy case. Between 1994 and 1997, Lindros was 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd in PPG. He has one Hart to show for it. Couldn't stay on the ice. Unfortunately we're seeing the same trend with Crosby. Bad luck? Probably. Reality? Yes.

Right Crease. It goes beyond a broken jaw for Crosby which may force him to sit out the rest of the season. Gobias, we saw this two other times with Crosby. This is the 3rd time he was leading the NHL in points when he went down with an injury. First was 2008 and what I thought was a little sloppy of a trip for him. Second was 2011. In 2011 he almost certainly was going to lead the NHL in points. 2008 he would have been in a cat fight with Ovechkin but still could have done it. Now in 2013 he is cruising along and has this happen. Not to mention 2011-'12 he plays 22 games and runs into his own teammate. Then in a series that was tailor made for him from an offensive standpoint they lose to Philly.

Yeah he's having a career closer to Lindros than anything right now.

 

[Epsilon]

Big Phil can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he used "Lindrosesque" to describe a player with unlimited potential but can't stay on the ice long enough to fill the trophy case. Between 1994 and 1997, Lindros was 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd in PPG. He has one Hart to show for it. Couldn't stay on the ice. Unfortunately we're seeing the same trend with Crosby. Bad luck? Probably. Reality? Yes.

Semi-OT, but even if he plays a full season in each of those years, I don't see him with any more than the one Hart trophy he has. Even with his pro-rated numbers, I don't see him beating Sergei Fedorov, Mario Lemieux, and Dominik Hasek in those seasons. With Crosby it's a bit of a different story (of course, with the caveat that beating Corey Perry and Patrick Kane is a lot easier than beating the three I just named).

 

[livewell68]

Seriously? You think a broken jaw makes his career more Lindrosesque?

I don't know how that works, but this was a random occurrence that at the end of the day won't keep him out longer than 12 games, not a huge percentage from a career perspective.

Right now this is all speculation. You don't know how long he will be out. As for the circumstances being different, regardless of the injury or the fact that it was a freak accident, missing time is missing time no matter how you look at it.

What some of us are trying to say is that so far he's been injury prone. Since his 3rd season in the NHL, he's only played one season in which he played a full 75 + schedule during the regular season (not even winning the Art Ross or Hart). That tells me that he's had injury problems.

How will fans respond when we lets say look back at his career and by the age of 30, he still has 1 Art Ross and 1 Hart?

 

[livewell68]

Semi-OT, but even if he plays a full season in each of those years, I don't see him with any more than the one Hart trophy he has. Even with his pro-rated numbers, I don't see him beating Sergei Fedorov, Mario Lemieux, and Dominik Hasek in those seasons. With Crosby it's a bit of a different story (of course, with the caveat that beating Corey Perry and Patrick Kane is a lot easier than beating the three I just named).

Not to mention throwing in Jagr into the mix as well.

Prorating numbers with players who tend to play less than 60 games can be too easy to do because they are so used to playing at high PPG's in short spurts that we automatically assume that their numbers would be that much more if they played a full season.

This is not necessarily true. In both 1996-97 and 1999-00 Jagr's PPG before his injuries was through the roof. Correct me if I'm wrong but for the first 50 games or so in 1996-97 his PPG was well above 1.60 which prorated over 82 games would give him the Art Ross over Lemieux.

In 1999-00 Jagr's PPG in his first 39 games was 1.82 which over 82 games would have given him 150 Pts (breaking his own record for points in a season by a winger and European player). History says though that his game was not the same when he came back.

You should also have a look at the "By the Numbers" thread that CzechyourMath started in which he proves that Crosby's so called half seasons or stretches (especially the overrated 2010-11 season) are not even close to being the best non Greztky, or non Lemieux/ Jagr half seasons of the last 30 years.

We should hold certain players like Forsberg, Lindros and Crosby to the same standard; we however don't and overrate them in terms of "dominating the competition" and place them in "what if healthy, they be winning every award" category.

 

[livewell68]

I think he's underrated. First player to fill the draft pick hype since the 80s. First player to dominate the league like Lemieux or Gretzky did since either of those two.

To be a star for 3 seasons in today's NHL is extremely impressive imo, to do it 6 yrs in a row and now so far ahead of anyone else is ridiculous. If he keeps playing like this for some more seasons then he'll go down as the 4th-10th best fwd to play the game for me.

I guess you've never heard of Lindros huh? The most hyped player possibly of all-time?

As for dominating, I guess you've never heard of Jagr, have you? The same player that won 5 Art Ross trophies, had 2 other top 2 finishes in scoring and 2 other top 5 finishes (where he missed 19 games and 13 games respectively). The same player that won 3 Pearson trophies, 1 Hart and was a Hart finalist a total of 6 times?

Comments like this are why people think Crosby is overrated. Either you don't really know the history of the NHL or you just have some selective memory where you block out the 90's.

 

[Merya]

What on Earth is this constant mention of Fedorov? Is it a 4chan meme? Before a month or two ago Fedorov was almost never mentioned here.

 

[JackFr]

Well let's see what he's got:

1 Hart (2007)
1 Art Ross (2007)
1 Maurice Richard (2010)
1 Pearson/Lindsay (2007)

1 WJHC (2005)
1 Stanley Cup (2009)
1 Olympic Gold Medal (2010)

What he presumably would have had barring injuries:

3 Harts (2008, 2011, 2013*)
3 Art Rosses (2008, 2011, 2013*)
1 Maurice Richard (2011)
3 Lindsays (2008, 2011, 2013*)

Given his production, you could argue that a third Hart and Art Ross could have come in 2012, but he didn't play enough to tell.

If we use PPG and prorate it (which I understand is inaccurate, but just for the sake of argument) you get:

2005-06 - 103 pts
2006-07 - 125 pts
2007-08 - 111 pts
2008-09 - 109 pts
2009-10 - 111 pts
2010-11 - 132 pts
2011-12 - 137 pts*
2012-13 - 127 pts

Or 955 points in 656 games

Adjusted that gives us:

2005-06 - 100 pts
2006-07 - 125 pts
2007-08 - 120 pts
2008-09 - 112 pts
2009-10 - 118 pts
2010-11 - 142 pts
2011-12 - 152 pts*
2012-13 - (no info, but probably around 140)

Adjusted, that's 1009 points in 656 games

 

[Rhiessan71]

What he presumably would have had barring injuries:

3 Harts (2008, 2011, 2013*)
3 Art Rosses (2008, 2011, 2013*)
1 Maurice Richard (2011)
3 Lindsays (2008, 2011, 2013*)

There is absolutely no presumption what so ever that he could have usurped OV's Ross, Lindsay and Hart in 2008, none what so ever!


And I had to cut the rest of your post because projecting the kind of numbers you were based on 63 of a possible 164 games or a mere 38% was quite simply ridiculous.

 

[JackFr]

There is absolutely no presumption what so ever that he could have usurped OV's Ross, Lindsay and Hart in 2008, none what so ever!


And I had to cut the rest of your post because projecting the kind of numbers you were based on 63 of a possible 164 games or a mere 38% was quite simply ridiculous.

My post was originally posted in a Penguins board thread about Crosby's lack of hardware hurting his legacy. The point was to illustrate how his trophy case could have possibly looked. It initially left out 2008, but someone asked that it be put.

In retrospect you're right about that season, I should have checked that. Ovechkin's PPG was higher, so that year doesn't belong on there.

The asterisk is on 2012 because it's the only season in which he played a very small chunk. Considering his bad (by his standards) starts to 2011 and 2013, it's not crazy to expect him to keep his paces for those seasons. Not to mention that I find it simply ridiculous to think that healthy Sid would lose the Art Ross in 2011 and 2013.

 

[Rhiessan71]

The asterisk is on 2012 because it's the only season in which he played a very small chunk. Considering his bad (by his standards) starts to 2011 and 2013, it's not crazy to expect him to keep his paces for those seasons. Not to mention that I find it simply ridiculous to think that healthy Sid would lose the Art Ross in 2011 and 2013.

I agree it's highly likely Sid takes the Ross in '11 and provided he doesn't miss too many games now, it's a good bet he takes it this year.
My issue was purely on the actual point projections. He HAS to do that for a full season first.
Even if we had 70-80% to play with then it gets more realistic but only 38% over 2 seasons or not even 50% over 3 seasons, that aint gonna fly IMO.

 

[Big Phil]

There is absolutely no presumption what so ever that he could have usurped OV's Ross, Lindsay and Hart in 2008, none what so ever!


And I had to cut the rest of your post because projecting the kind of numbers you were based on 63 of a possible 164 games or a mere 38% was quite simply ridiculous.

The Art Ross is a possibility in 2008. I have to say either way the Hart was going to Ovechkin. 65 goals and 112 points as well as a playoff position would have been hard to top. Considering Ovechkin won it in 2009 despite being outscored by Malkin then I think 2008 would have been no different.

Semi-OT, but even if he plays a full season in each of those years, I don't see him with any more than the one Hart trophy he has. Even with his pro-rated numbers, I don't see him beating Sergei Fedorov, Mario Lemieux, and Dominik Hasek in those seasons. With Crosby it's a bit of a different story (of course, with the caveat that beating Corey Perry and Patrick Kane is a lot easier than beating the three I just named).

I had to read this post twice. Then I got a cold shake. My goodness, Patrick Kane is one of a few Hart candidates now. Patrick Kane could win the Hart. There is a dark cloud in the NHL and over every taxi cab as well.

 

[Hardyvan123]

The Art Ross is a possibility in 2008. I have to say either way the Hart was going to Ovechkin. 65 goals and 112 points as well as a playoff position would have been hard to top. Considering Ovechkin won it in 2009 despite being outscored by Malkin then I think 2008 would have been no different.



I had to read this post twice. Then I got a cold shake. My goodness, Patrick Kane is one of a few Hart candidates now. Patrick Kane could win the Hart. There is a dark cloud in the NHL and over every taxi cab as well.

What is Patrick Kane now chopped liver?

I know his raw stats don't look as good as guys in the 80's.......

The guy is a really skilled player on a really great team.

That being said it's unfortunate that Sid got a bad break here, like it's some sort of skill staying healthy or something.

He might still come back and win the Hart anyways.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

What is Patrick Kane now chopped liver?

I know his raw stats don't look as good as guys in the 80's.......

The guy is a really skilled player on a really great team.

That being said it's unfortunate that Sid got a bad break here, like it's some sort of skill staying healthy or something.

He might still come back and win the Hart anyways.

Being injury prone or not IS a part of a player's makeup.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Being injury prone or not IS a part of a player's makeup.

There is another thread on this somewhere but it's not a skill, it comes down basically to luck, if it was a skill then we should be able to predict it somewhat.

What we have now is a hindsight analysis of guys being injury prone.

So in other words being injury prone or not would be more accurate to describe what happened in a players career, sort of like playoffs, rather than part of his makeup.

 

[revolverjgw]

Being injury prone or not IS a part of a player's makeup.

If it's a result of not keeping your head up or being too reckless with blocking pucks or taking runs or whatever, then yeah, but getting a randomly deflected puck to the face is nothing but dumb luck. It's just a bad break like he said.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

There is another thread on this somewhere but it's not a skill, it comes down basically to luck, if it was a skill then we should be able to predict it somewhat.

What we have now is a hindsight analysis of guys being injury prone.

So in other words being injury prone or not would be more accurate to describe what happened in a players career, sort of like playoffs, rather than part of his makeup.

Don't confuse skill with trait. Shooting accurately is a skill, being injury prone is a trait. Both skills AND traits go into a player's makeup. Crosby is injury prone, bottom-line.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

If it's a result of not keeping your head up or being too reckless with blocking pucks or taking runs or whatever, then yeah, but getting a randomly deflected puck to the face is nothing but dumb luck. It's just a bad break like he said.

See above.

 

[Rhiessan71]

There is another thread on this somewhere but it's not a skill, it comes down basically to luck, if it was a skill then we should be able to predict it somewhat.

What we have now is a hindsight analysis of guys being injury prone.

So in other words being injury prone or not would be more accurate to describe what happened in a players career, sort of like playoffs, rather than part of his makeup.

Hahaha, yeah it was in numerous Bourque vs Lidstrom threads where you tried to preach Lidstrom's relatively injury free career as a skill. One that you tried to use to propel him above Bourque and especially Orr.

This is getting ridiculous, seriously, I am literally sitting here shaking my head and laughing as I type this

 

[BraveCanadian]

Hahaha, yeah it was in numerous Bourque vs Lidstrom threads where you tried to preach Lidstrom's relatively injury free career as a skill. One that you tried to use to propel him above Bourque and especially Orr.

This is getting ridiculous, seriously, I am literally sitting here shaking my head and laughing as I type this

I think it is definitely a player attribute. Whether it is luck or skill (style of play) or some combination of both, some players seem an awful lot more durable than others.

 

[Sentinel]

You can't be of use to your team if you are injured all the time. It's not a skill, but most definitely a part of a player's makeup. Which is why I think Orr is overrated (should be below Howe at any rate).

 

[Fred Taylor]

All of Crosby's injuries have been a complete fluke/accident. I would agree that staying healthy can be a skill to a certain extent, but in Crosbys case it's just been a lot of bad luck.

 

[Crease]

Getting hit in the face with an errant slapshot is bad luck. Concussions could be considered a function of luck, genes, and skill. Avoiding collisions and hard hits is absolutely a skill. It can be measured in terms of awareness, agility, and strength. Gretzky had the former two in spades.

For all the skill and strength and potential Lindros possessed, the man couldn't stickhandle without glancing down at the puck. Thats a huge knock on his game. It's why he couldn't avoid those big hits and the resulting concussions. It's why he's considered one of the biggest "What Ifs" and not considered one of the "All-Time Greats". Reminds me of that Luis Mendoza kid from the Mighty Ducks movie. Blazing speed, great hands, accurate shot. Just couldn't stop.

Getting back to my point, its reasonable to attribute health and longevity to skill. Not under all circumstances mind you, but evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

 

[radapex]

Semi-OT, but even if he plays a full season in each of those years, I don't see him with any more than the one Hart trophy he has. Even with his pro-rated numbers, I don't see him beating Sergei Fedorov, Mario Lemieux, and Dominik Hasek in those seasons. With Crosby it's a bit of a different story (of course, with the caveat that beating Corey Perry and Patrick Kane is a lot easier than beating the three I just named).

If Crosby had been able to stay healthy over his career, we're probably looking at 3-4 more Art Ross and at least a couple more Hart + Pearson trophies.

To put his numbers in perspective, he's currently 4th in NHL career points per game at 1.414 behind Bossy (1.497), Lemieux (1.883), and Gretzky (1.921). He's also 4th in playoff points per game at 1.324 behind Barry Pederson (1.529), Lemieux (1.607), and Gretzky (1.837).

The second best among active players, on both counts, is Malkin at 1.229 and 1.191. Over the course of an 82-game season, that adds up to 116 points for Crosby and 101 points for Malkin - a pretty significant difference.

That's where the problem with accolades comes into play. Due to his various injuries, Crosby's career can really only be judged on an entire body of work instead of seasonal. This much is made pretty apparent when realizing that he's in his 8th NHL season but has played less than 6 seasons worth of games.

 

[radapex]

Don't confuse skill with trait. Shooting accurately is a skill, being injury prone is a trait. Both skills AND traits go into a player's makeup. Crosby is injury prone, bottom-line.

I don't know about injury prone. He's had a nagging groin injury his entire career, but that's negligible. Aside from that, he's had the high ankle sprain in 2007-08, concussion in 2010-12, and now a broken jaw.

Injury prone, to me, is more about a guy getting hurt often. Crosby's more of the opposite - he's had few injuries over his career, but they've been rather significant ones.