Interesting theory about ownership resolve...

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Lanny MacDonald*

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Now while all the PA lackies hurl insults at Gary Bettman and the ownership in regards to their hard stance on a cap, this may be a situation beyond their control. There is a theory brewing that this strategy may have been forced upon them by their bankers.

Now everyone knows that busines run on lines of credit and as long as you can prove that you have growth in your revenues you are certain to see that line of credit continue and likely grow with your business. But the minute that revenues begin to decline your banker is likely to restrict your line of credit and watch your ability to make your payments. For the other leagues with huge TV contracts this is not a problem as there is a guaranteed revenue stream the bank can count on to get its money. For the NHL, that revenue stream has disappeared. This is where the theory begins.

The NHL has long been a league that has counted on a solid relationship with its bankers. It was a great relationship when loans were covered with expansion fees and revenues were growing. Unfortunately as the revenues grew expenses grew with them, except at a greater level. Once the expansion revenues were gone those expenses were no longer hidden and began to have more of an impact. This is when the bankers started to get nervous. As the last few years proved, costs can run away on anyone in any industry, and the NHL is no different. The final blow was likely the TV contract, where guaranteed revenues disappeared. The bankers likely saw this as a sign of a huge drop in revenues and a devaluation of franchises (as seen in the last string of franchise sales). The bankers raised every red flag they could and likely met with the owners and the league. It is very likely that they banks have made demands of the NHL that they would of any customer in financial problems. Which brings us to today.

The NHL has supposedly been told by their bankers that they are to get a cost certainty solution for their financial crisis, and outline how that will allow the league's franchises to pay their bills, or said bankks will call their loans and force some franchises out of business. And how many of these franchises are supposedly in this position? Fifteen. Half of the league. And you can bet that those fifteen are not just the bottom fifteen. You can count on that half transcending the standings, transcending the popularity polls and transcending who you THINK the big spenders are. Every team could easily find themselves in this predicament and could easily find themselves having their loans called. This could be a huge problem and could be the driving force behind the NHL's actions and the ownership resolve. In short, it may not be the NHL driving the "cost certainty" bandwagon down the throats of the players alone, it may be that it is being driven down their throats as well.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050205.wxshoalts0205/BNStory/Sports
 

mudcrutch79

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This would be absolutely brilliant, except for one point.

1) If it were true, this would be expressed to the PA in confidence.

What's the point in engaging them in a ruinous lockout if you don't really have any option? Tell them the truth in September, present your offer, if they don't want to accept it, declare impasse right then. The PA isn't stupid enough to keep fighting something if it's a condition of the ongoing existence of the league.

Who's next at the Department of Lunatic Theories?
 

SuperUnknown

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mudcrutch79 said:
This would be absolutely brilliant, except for one point.

1) If it were true, this would be expressed to the PA in confidence.

What's the point in engaging them in a ruinous lockout if you don't really have any option? Tell them the truth in September, present your offer, if they don't want to accept it, declare impasse right then. The PA isn't stupid enough to keep fighting something if it's a condition of the ongoing existence of the league.

Who's next at the Department of Lunatic Theories?

Maybe the PA feels this is just "lies" or that the franchises would find new owners that would put more money or secure new lines of credit.

So far, the PA ain't negociating for the league's success, but to line in their pockets to the max.

Edit: It would explain Tie Domi's change of heart after meeting Mario Lemieux.
 
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Lanny MacDonald*

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mudcrutch79 said:
This would be absolutely brilliant, except for one point.

1) If it were true, this would be expressed to the PA in confidence.

What's the point in engaging them in a ruinous lockout if you don't really have any option? Tell them the truth in September, present your offer, if they don't want to accept it, declare impasse right then. The PA isn't stupid enough to keep fighting something if it's a condition of the ongoing existence of the league.

Who's next at the Department of Lunatic Theories?

And who is to say they didn't genius? This is something the NHLPA would not want to get out, to anyone. It would proven the NHL has been on the up and up and that the players are indeed complicent in their role in driving the game into the ground. The last thing they would want is to let the word out that 15 franchises are indeed in financial trouble and the banking institutions has made an ultimatum of getting costs under control.

As well, this is the last thing the league would want leaking out as well. One bank makes a call, all of them make a call. All it takes is one of those banking dominoes to fall and a whole industry can get screwed over. Even the healthy ones can get pulled under in the powerful drag that is created when one business in an industry folds.

I've watched companies in two different industries go toes up and no one saw it coming. No one but the executive, the lawyers and the bankers. By time anyone else knew, it was too late. So no, you're little, and it is very little, explanation does not hold water.
 

HF2002

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The Iconoclast said:
And who is to say they didn't genius? This is something the NHLPA would not want to get out, to anyone. It would proven the NHL has been on the up and up and that the players are indeed complicent in their role in driving the game into the ground. The last thing they would want is to let the word out that 15 franchises are indeed in financial trouble and the banking institutions has made an ultimatum of getting costs under control.

As well, this is the last thing the league would want leaking out as well. One bank makes a call, all of them make a call. All it takes is one of those banking dominoes to fall and a whole industry can get screwed over. Even the healthy ones can get pulled under in the powerful drag that is created when one business in an industry folds.

I've watched companies in two different industries go toes up and no one saw it coming. No one but the executive, the lawyers and the bankers. By time anyone else knew, it was too late. So no, you're little, and it is very little, explanation does not hold water.
Careful, he's tired of people arguing with him.

What's the name of the building that they met in yesterday?
 

likea

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I wish the pro-NHLPA people would think about this quote long and hard...

"Why else would [the owners] want to tank a season, unless the economics are as bad as they say?" said one prominent NHL figure, whose sympathies lie with the players.


if the owners were not losing as much as they say, they would have taken the 24% rollback and made sure they had a season and playoffs

if the owners were being greedy thats exactly the way this would have played out
 

mudcrutch79

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The Iconoclast said:
And who is to say they didn't genius? This is something the NHLPA would not want to get out, to anyone.

So in the Candyland fantasy world that this theory comes from, the NHLPA has been told that 15 teams are on the verge of going under, they've had bankers come in and explain this to them, and they're still holding out? Right. Lots of businesses manage to exist without cost certainty. I doubt that the bankers really give a **** what the 29 other teams are doing-I suspect any ultimatum would be along the lines of "You need to get your business affairs in order, and stop spending so much on the team. Don't cry to me about how other teams are spending lots-there are teams in this league that run on a budget. Congratulations, you are now one of them."

As well, this is the last thing the league would want leaking out as well. One bank makes a call, all of them make a call. All it takes is one of those banking dominoes to fall and a whole industry can get screwed over. Even the healthy ones can get pulled under in the powerful drag that is created when one business in an industry folds.

Hmm, seems likely. I mean that banks publicly refusing to finance the Senators really led to a mass of banks calling loans to NHL teams right? No? You mean it's actually in the bank's interest not to call in a team's loan unless they aren't meeting the requirements? Wow, who knew?

I've watched companies in two different industries go toes up and no one saw it coming. No one but the executive, the lawyers and the bankers. By time anyone else knew, it was too late. So no, you're little, and it is very little, explanation does not hold water.

Hmm, apparently David Shoalts somehow knows before anyone else as well.

This is nonsense. Canadian sportswriters have nothing to write about these days, and they need to fill column inches. That's why we're reading about this.
 

shveik

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The Iconoclast said:
For the other leagues with huge TV contracts this is not a problem as there is a guaranteed revenue stream the bank can count on to get its money. For the NHL, that revenue stream has disappeared. This is where the theory begins.

Since the NHL doesn't have a huge TV contract. We have heard it over and over that NHL revenue is mostly gate. So if TV revenue disappears, it isn't as big of a deal. If the banks are forcing the hand it these negotiations, IMO they would be much more concerned with the overall revenue shrinking due to the prolonged lockout.

It appears that NHL's excuse of the day is "the bankers made me do it". :lol
 

shveik

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likea said:
I wish the pro-NHLPA people would think about this quote long and hard...




if the owners were not losing as much as they say, they would have taken the 24% rollback and made sure they had a season and playoffs

if the owners were being greedy thats exactly the way this would have played out

Bingo. The owners are trying so hard to get the cap because they know now is the best time to cry poverty. Post-expansion adjustments will soon settle in, no matter what is the CBA, and the NHL will not get as much public sympathy for their :nopity: act.
 

JimmyPage

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Smail said:
Maybe the PA feels this is just "lies" or that the franchises would find new owners that would put more money or secure new lines of credit.

So far, the PA ain't negociating for the league's success, but to line in their pockets to the max.

Edit: It would explain Tie Domi's change of heart after meeting Mario Lemieux.

Smail, what change of heart did Domi have? I missed this.
 

vanlady

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The Iconoclast said:
And who is to say they didn't genius? This is something the NHLPA would not want to get out, to anyone. It would proven the NHL has been on the up and up and that the players are indeed complicent in their role in driving the game into the ground. The last thing they would want is to let the word out that 15 franchises are indeed in financial trouble and the banking institutions has made an ultimatum of getting costs under control.

As well, this is the last thing the league would want leaking out as well. One bank makes a call, all of them make a call. All it takes is one of those banking dominoes to fall and a whole industry can get screwed over. Even the healthy ones can get pulled under in the powerful drag that is created when one business in an industry folds.

I've watched companies in two different industries go toes up and no one saw it coming. No one but the executive, the lawyers and the bankers. By time anyone else knew, it was too late. So no, you're little, and it is very little, explanation does not hold water.

You need to look at why these owners are in this trouble. Since 1995 19 new arena's have been built, and as we all know arena's do not come for free. Carl Raki reported in another thread that NHL teams started losing money in 1997, funny 2 things happened at that time, a boom in arena building with 17 of 19 arena's built since 1995 were actually built since 1997. The NHL also added 4 teams after they began losing money. Only 1 of those teams, Minnesota is financially successful. And even during a lockout NJ just signed a deal for a new arena.
 

SuperUnknown

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vanlady said:
You need to look at why these owners are in this trouble. Since 1995 19 new arena's have been built, and as we all know arena's do not come for free. Carl Raki reported in another thread that NHL teams started losing money in 1997, funny 2 things happened at that time, a boom in arena building with 17 of 19 arena's built since 1995 were actually built since 1997. The NHL also added 4 teams after they began losing money. Only 1 of those teams, Minnesota is financially successful. And even during a lockout NJ just signed a deal for a new arena.

And then the pro-PA blames the Pens for sticking with an old arena... :dunno:
 

vanlady

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Smail said:
And then the pro-PA blames the Pens for sticking with an old arena... :dunno:

An old arena would be fine if they were paying an old arena lease, however they have one of the worst arena leases in the entire NHL, heck even the bankruptcy judge wanted the arena lease reworked.
 

SuperUnknown

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JimmyPage said:
Smail, what change of heart did Domi have? I missed this.

Unfortunately the search function has disappeared, but here's the quick story.

Tie Domi went on a show (radio or tv?) and mouthed off against the owners, about the cap, etc.

Then Mario Lemieux went to speak with Tie Domi, and suddenly Domi said something along the lines that the PA would have to bend because the NHL's situation wasn't rosy at all.

Sorry, wish I could get you the exact quotes, but without the search function it's kinda hard.
 

SuperUnknown

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vanlady said:
An old arena would be fine if they were paying an old arena lease, however they have one of the worst arena leases in the entire NHL, heck even the bankruptcy judge wanted the arena lease reworked.

The point is that the new rinks are the main factor behind the higher revenues in the league. So they are the main point driving the players salaries up. Then it's easy to pass off the blame on the owners, but why in that case couldn't the PA acknowledge this and make it possible for the league to continue operations and pay them their current prince's wage?
 

vanlady

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Smail said:
The point is that the new rinks are the main factor behind the higher revenues in the league. So they are the main point driving the players salaries up. Then it's easy to pass off the blame on the owners, but why in that case couldn't the PA acknowledge this and make it possible for the league to continue operations and pay them their current prince's wage?

No, but take a look at the 90's the early 90's were the fastest growth in player salaries in the last 15 years, as a matter of fact the last 5 years of salary increases by percentage are 1/3 what they were from 92-95. What was also happening, arena building. What possessed the owners to drive up salaries, and undergo major capital cost projects? No businessman in there right mind would undergo major capital projects during a trend of employee costs increasing over 20% per year.
 

Morbo

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The Iconoclast said:
Now while all the PA lackies hurl insults at Gary Bettman and the ownership in regards to their hard stance on a cap, this may be a situation beyond their control.

You're nothing but a Bettman "lackey".

You're no better than the people you are insulting.
 

SuperUnknown

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vanlady said:
No, but take a look at the 90's the early 90's were the fastest growth in player salaries in the last 15 years, as a matter of fact the last 5 years of salary increases by percentage are 1/3 what they were from 92-95. What was also happening, arena building. What possessed the owners to drive up salaries, and undergo major capital cost projects? No businessman in there right mind would undergo major capital projects during a trend of employee costs increasing over 20% per year.

It depends, if to be able to compete and make a profit you NEED a new installation, either you build it or you fold. Such is the way of business.

Also, the salary increases from 92-95 were the most spectacular because it was the best years for the NHL. The 92 salaries were probably underpaid (relative to the demand) and at the same time there was money forthcoming from expansion, new untapped revenue sources, new rinks (many rinks were starting to be old by any industry standards), etc.

As well, a 20% increase of a $20M payroll is $4M, the same as a 10% increase of a $40M. In other words, while increase % might have diminished, in constant dollars it might have stayed about the same. I haven't tested that, but it's common sense that high % increases from 92-95 over payrolls that were about $10M in average weren't that bad in $ amounts (for the owners anyway), while with a higher payroll average, a smaller % increase nowadays means much more money.

There's no real point in discussing all this though, because regardless of the cause of the current situation, if it is not adressed correctly with right means, it will affect negatively both parties, something neither wants.
 

HF2002

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I'm not pro PA or pro Owner. Never the less....

Have the banks had enough of the "potential" the NHL has in some markets? And they can't possibly be thinking of just the hockey aspect of all this.

Exhibit A: Rod Bryden

Bryden couldn't raise the funds on his own anymore - did the banks get fed up? Here's an interesting look at the hoops he has jumped through:

Bryden


At least 28 of Bryden's corporate holding companies dissolved. These were mainly sole-purpose companies that helped operate the team or the Corel Centre.

Combined, the Senators and arena owed close to $500 million to secured creditors alone.

Terrace Investments, which owned over 90 per cent of the Ottawa Senators and 100 per cent of the Corel Centre, went bankrupt. It was forced into bankruptcy by Standard Life, which was owed $16 million.

"The Senators’ financial history is a monument to the hubris of tinpot tycoons who seem willing to promise anything, squander pots of other people’s money and leave creditors on the hook in a quest to set themselves up as NHL big shots." Jamie Fitzpatrick, proicehockey.com
 

JimmyPage

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Smail said:
Unfortunately the search function has disappeared, but here's the quick story.

Tie Domi went on a show (radio or tv?) and mouthed off against the owners, about the cap, etc.

Then Mario Lemieux went to speak with Tie Domi, and suddenly Domi said something along the lines that the PA would have to bend because the NHL's situation wasn't rosy at all.

Sorry, wish I could get you the exact quotes, but without the search function it's kinda hard.

Thnaks for the info, Smail.
 
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