News Article: Interesting Habs analysis

[crystal ball]

I saw this in USA Today. It's got some interesting numbers that say the Habs are controlling games, but are having almost Biblical bad luck in finishing.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/2016/01/21/montreal-canadiens-marc-bergevin-michel-therrien/79133598/

Click to read more...

 

[Dominator13]

This is exactly the type of report you expect from someone that has a keyboard, a stat sheet and 0 hockey knowledge.

The Habs aren't "unlucky", shooting pucks and avoiding shots in volume doesn't require talent, it requires structure. Our low PDO is exactly the proof that this team badly needs some finishers. We have players like Lars Eller and Dale Weise in the top 6 thay shoot when try should pass and pass when they should shoot. If you want to look at their possesion numbers, there is no impact, just the end result that's different.

 

[MXD]

Those infos, combined with the eye test, basically tells everyone who has a clue that this team should not have gone 4-15-1 in the last 20 games.

6-12-2 would be more representative.

So, in other words, instead of playing like ****, they played like feces.

 

[JLP]

Toenails has instructed players to shoot shoot shoot: quantity over quality. High shot totals provides him this sort of lame excuse.

 

[jfm133]

Funny to read this year that what matters is the eye test, while last year it was all about advanced stats. Poor Therrien, he cannot win with such bad faith.

 

[HabsCowboysOwn]

Those infos, combined with the eye test, basically tells everyone who has a clue that this team should not have gone 4-15-1 in the last 20 games.

6-12-2 would be more representative.

So, in other words, instead of playing like ****, they played like feces.

 

[lamp9post]

This is exactly the type of report you expect from someone that has a keyboard, a stat sheet and 0 hockey knowledge.

The Habs aren't "unlucky", shooting pucks and avoiding shots in volume doesn't require talent, it requires structure. Our low PDO is exactly the proof that this team badly needs some finishers. We have players like Lars Eller and Dale Weise in the top 6 thay shoot when try should pass and pass when they should shoot. If you want to look at their possesion numbers, there is no impact, just the end result that's different.

Agreed 100%.

 

[Bob b smith]

Funny to read this year that what matters is the eye test, while last year it was all about advanced stats. Poor Therrien, he cannot win with such bad faith.

Reaction time of an NHL goalie is 0.2-second minimum. Past a certain distance from the net, goalie's reflexes are not sufficiënt. Goalie can only rely on positioning and guessing. From the slot (20 feest away) a 100 Miles per hour slap, enters goal in 0.14-second. See the book The Physics of Hockey by Alain Haché.

The whole Michel Therrien offensive system is to put the puck from all the low-percentage areas which artificially inflates shot numbers. Goalie has tons of reaction time...

Plus if the case may be, an advantage of reaching the slot to shoot, instead of having only one guy fetching the rebound, the shooter can also be there to take his rebound. Michel Therrien's system is based on old-antiquated Notions from the stand-up goaltender era and just does not Work.

 

[Lions999]

You can take 50 shots a game but if 45 of them are from the corners and the boards you won't score. You need to have 12 to 15 shots a game between the 2 dots of the face off circle to get 3 to 5 goals a game.

 

[malton]

Funny to read this year that what matters is the eye test, while last year it was all about advanced stats. Poor Therrien, he cannot win with such bad faith.

It goes both ways.

Last year advanced stats didn't matter because of the record.

This year it's the opposite.

Except the eye test said we were junk last year and it still says the same thing this year.

 

[Capitano]

You can take 50 shots a game but if 45 of them are from the corners and the boards you won't score. You need to have 12 to 15 shots a game between the 2 dots of the face off circle to get 3 to 5 goals a game.

Agree. Stats can lie very easily depending on your focus. Is there a stat for scoring chances rather than shots?

 

[Bob b smith]

It goes both ways.

Last year advanced stats didn't matter because of the record.

This year it's the opposite.

Except the eye test said we were junk last year and it still says the same thing this year.

This season they look like they forced themselves to enlarge even more their already enormous shooting area. Some of the Habs have pee-shooters for shots...

 

[malton]

This season they look like they forced themselves to enlarge even more their already enormous shooting area.

Go wide and put the puck on the net.

A direct quote from MT.

 

[habalifeok]

Only one Hab will sacrifice the body by going to the net. Coach can preach all he wants about driving the net. Get some bodies that are willing to sacrifice to do just that.

 

[TRG]

Screw these advance stats.

When will we have actual % or time of possession as well as time spent in possession in each zone, etc.

Basing possession and control of play on the number of shots attempts is weak IMO.

 

[pepperMonkey]

Only one Hab will sacrifice the body by going to the net. Coach can preach all he wants about driving the net. Get some bodies that are willing to sacrifice to do just that.

I realize the guy may be too short for anyone to notice but we do actually have another even shorter guy who goes to the front of the net

 

[BJG]

Those infos, combined with the eye test, basically tells everyone who has a clue that this team should not have gone 4-15-1 in the last 20 games.

6-12-2 would be more representative.

So, in other words, instead of playing like ****, they played like feces.

Laugh all you want, but that fecal outcome would have us sitting in 5th place, rather than 10th.
I'd take it, happily.

 

[sandysan]

Screw these advance stats.

When will we have actual % or time of possession as well as time spent in possession in each zone, etc.

Basing possession and control of play on the number of shots attempts is weak IMO.

I've been saying the very same thing for a while now. Its usually countered by " well its better than not measuring anything" which seems silly like choosing the worse of two options is better than not choosing at all.

Yes shots are a facile metric, but I'm not asking people to split the atom by using a freaking stop watch or two, but that info doesn't end up in the box scores. Sometimes you have to use a surrogate metric, but real time of possession isn't ( or shouldn't) be one of them.

We already have heat maps for XY shot attempts ( which, not surprisingly, for the habs look really horrible).

 

[BJG]

Is there a stat for scoring chances rather than shots?

Yes. And per War-On-Ice, a great site, we're middle of the pack. Florida and NJ have abysmally low scoring chances, and that's why neither team will make the POs. Again, kids, regression to the mean. Learn it. Love it. Live it.

 

[lamp9post]

The Habs whole strategy is to just funnel the puck to the net at any opportunity and try to hack away at loose pucks in the crease. They don't have the talent to make plays that force defenders out of position and create opportunities for high quality scoring chances.

 

[MXD]

Laugh all you want, but that fecal outcome would have us sitting in 5th place, rather than 10th.
I'd take it, happily.

Indeed. It doesn't change the fact that they were generally not good during the last stretch and that, instead of addressing the press now, MB would've done so during the all-star break.

 

[19VJ17]

Last year MT had bad advanced stats and wins.
This year MT has good advance stats and loses.

Michel Therrien single handedly has destroyed advanced stats.

Now what NHL coach can say that

 

[Brainiac]

As usual, these stats need context. We have a good SAT because:

1-We shoot from everywhere

2-It's even worse when we're trailing, which happens quite often


And I can't grasp why Therrien didn't keep with the strategies we were employing to begin the year, when we were simply dominating. Play a tight game defensively with the forwards involved and then a breakout where the forwards are allowed to carry the puck through center ice and make some east/west plays in the o-zone. Let the defense join the rush when they feel it's the good call. All pretty simple ideas that made sure we weren't too predictable.

Now it seems we're back to long stretch passes and dump ins. This is so dumb. We've become completely predictable (again) and other teams are neutralizing us just with average forecheck.

 

[LaP]

Screw these advance stats.

When will we have actual % or time of possession as well as time spent in possession in each zone, etc.

Basing possession and control of play on the number of shots attempts is weak IMO.

I've been saying that for over a year. Strange last year nobody was listening to me.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Laugh all you want, but that fecal outcome would have us sitting in 5th place, rather than 10th.
I'd take it, happily.

For now, yes. But we would inevitably fall out because Pittsburgh, Philly and a few other teams all have plenty of games in hand.