Trade: [IND/NYJ] Jets trade up to 3rd overall for 6th, 37th, 49th and 2019 2nd

[m9]

My aversion to picking a RB high is mainly because the NFL doesn't value the position. Paying a top RB pick essentially means he needs to be a top five RB to make him worth his contract. Getting even just a high-end starter at almost any other position ensures you are getting a massive savings you can use elsewhere on your roster.

You also have almost no chance of getting a starting QB outside of the 1st round, while there's a good chance you can get a RB just as good later in the draft.

 

[What the Faulk]

You also have almost no chance of getting a starting QB outside of the 1st round, while there's a good chance you can get a RB just as good later in the draft.

Using that term a bit loosely:

Starters drafted in the top 15: Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Mitch Trubisky, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Sam Bradford

Starters drafted from 16-32: Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers

Starters drafted from the 2nd round onward: Tom Brady, AJ McCarron, Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo

Percentages: 51%/9%/40%

Seems like you actually have a pretty good chance.

 

[m9]

Using that term a bit loosely:

Starters drafted in the top 15: Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Mitch Trubisky, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Sam Bradford

Starters drafted from 16-32: Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers

Starters drafted from the 2nd round onward: Tom Brady, AJ McCarron, Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo

Percentages: 51%/9%/40%

Seems like you actually have a pretty good chance.

So even using your list, over half the starting QB's were picked in the top 15 as opposed to the other 200+ picks? That's pretty good. Even if I overlook some questionable things on the list (Who knows if McCarron is even a starter yet, having both Bridgewater & McCown, Foles is a backup, Brees was top 32, etc) I'm feeling okay. Add in that there will be another 3-4 guys drafted later this month to knock off a few of those placeholders and that percentage climbs up pretty quickly.

There's always going to be outliers, it happens... but there's a reason teams keep trading up for QB's in the first round and not RB's.

 

[What the Faulk]

There's a reason teams trade up, sure, but that's not what you said.

You also have almost no chance of getting a starting QB outside of the 1st round

That's a ridiculous thing to say.

 

[m9]

There's a reason teams trade up, sure, but that's not what you said.



That's a ridiculous thing to say.

Fine. It's hard to find a good starting QB outside of the first round. Does that work?

 

[m9]

2000 - Brady
2001 - Brees
2002 - X
2003 - X
2004 - X
2005 - X
2006 - X
2007 - X
2008 - X
2009 - X
2010 - X
2011 - Dalton, Tyrod
2012 - Wilson, Cousins
2013 - X
2014 - Carr, Jimmy G
2015 - X
2016 - Dak
2017 - X

Unless I missed someone, those are the long-term starters in the last 18 draft classes. Stopped there as Brady is the oldest guy still starting. So, probably once every two draft classes you'll find one decent starter outside of the first round. Pretty bad odds, though they are much better than they were a few years ago. That 2002-2010 run is ugly.

I know you're a Panthers fan, so during those 18 draft classes the Panthers picked: Weinke (4th) Fasani (5th) Lefors (4th) Clausen (2nd) Pike (6th) before grabbing Newton 1st overall.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

Goff, Wentz? Winston, Mariota?

Don't know how you can have Prescott and not any of those guys. Bridgewater probably would have been one too if he didn't almost lose his leg.

 

[Voight]

Using that term a bit loosely:

Starters drafted in the top 15: Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Mitch Trubisky, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Sam Bradford

Starters drafted from 16-32: Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers

Starters drafted from the 2nd round onward: Tom Brady, AJ McCarron, Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo

Percentages: 51%/9%/40%

Seems like you actually have a pretty good chance.

You cant have McCown & Bridgewater, Wentz & Foles all listed as starters.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Goff, Wentz? Winston, Mariota?

Don't know how you can have Prescott and not any of those guys. Bridgewater probably would have been one too if he didn't almost lose his leg.

Outside the 1st round.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

^ my bad. Reading comprehension fail.

 

[Scott Stevens]

^ my bad. Reading comprehension fail.

How’s your math?

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

How’s your math?

Worse than reading but I don't need your sympy.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Using that term a bit loosely:

Starters drafted in the top 15: Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Mitch Trubisky, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Sam Bradford

Starters drafted from 16-32: Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers

Starters drafted from the 2nd round onward: Tom Brady, AJ McCarron, Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo

Percentages: 51%/9%/40%

Seems like you actually have a pretty good chance.

The MUCH more significant percentages would be if we took into consideration allllll of the QBs taken in those groups.

How many more failed Qbs were drafted after the 1st round then there were in the top 15?

 

[KarlssonsGroin]

2000 - Brady
2001 - Brees
2002 - X
2003 - X
2004 - X
2005 - X
2006 - X
2007 - X
2008 - X
2009 - X
2010 - X
2011 - Dalton, Tyrod
2012 - Wilson, Cousins
2013 - X
2014 - Carr, Jimmy G
2015 - X
2016 - Dak
2017 - X

Unless I missed someone, those are the long-term starters in the last 18 draft classes. Stopped there as Brady is the oldest guy still starting. So, probably once every two draft classes you'll find one decent starter outside of the first round. Pretty bad odds, though they are much better than they were a few years ago. That 2002-2010 run is ugly.

I know you're a Panthers fan, so during those 18 draft classes the Panthers picked: Weinke (4th) Fasani (5th) Lefors (4th) Clausen (2nd) Pike (6th) before grabbing Newton 1st overall.

and Dalton + Tyrod i wouldnt consider "good QBs" more "passable", and Dak is close to joining that lis.

Ill even give you Jimmy G as a legit guy with the minimal tape on him, 6 guys in 17 years, and Brees would of been a 1st rounder in todays 32 team league.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I see the math of starting QBs and when they selected. But I wondered how many total busts were made in each round.
Maybe that would show the foolishness (or not) of needing to draft a QB in the first round.

I'm a Bills fan. Wonder if they pick a QB at #12. If the perceived legit QBs by # 11, are the Bills "forced" to take a QB who they really don't think has starter potential? But since they need a starter QB soon, do they just take one to because 1. It's tradition. 2. To appease the fans.

 

[What the Faulk]

The MUCH more significant percentages would be if we took into consideration allllll of the QBs taken in those groups.

How many more failed Qbs were drafted after the 1st round then there were in the top 15?

Not as many as you would think.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Not as many as you would think.

Weellll? C'mon now don't hold out on us!!!

 

[What the Faulk]

Sounds like a lot of work for a weeks old bump.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Sounds like a lot of work for a weeks old bump.

Oh. You sounded like you knew

 

[What the Faulk]

I mean, I looked through every draft since Brady, but I didn't crunch the numbers. There are a ton of first round busts, and because premiums are placed on QBs, there aren't as many late round selections as you'd think.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

I mean, I looked through every draft since Brady, but I didn't crunch the numbers. There are a ton of first round busts, and because premiums are placed on QBs, there aren't as many late round selections as you'd think.

91 QBs drafted past the 1st round from 2008 to now.

Maybe 8 of them turned out at least decent. 14 if you want to count guys like Kap, Tom Savage, OSweiler, Petty who barely started or who played ok for a season or two.

19 total QBs taken in the top 15 picks. 10 of them were good-great and I didn't even count last year's picks even though all three have looked at least ok so far. DIdn't include guys like RG3 or one of the Jax QBs or Sanchez who played ok for 2 seasons and sucked so really it can be 13 or 14 of 19.

I don't think it's even debatable how much more of a crapshoot it is past the 15. The top 15 is no picnic but after the 1st round entirely? Wasteland

 

[What the Faulk]

Stopped reading when you shat on Kaep and threatened to boost Mark Sanchez and RG3.

In any event, you're straying from the "almost no chance" point. Congrats on wasting your time.

 

[Beerfish]

The jets needed to move into the top two to get the franchise Qb they seek. My ratings are like this:

Darnold
Rosen

grand canyon sized gap

Mayfield/Allen

If the Jets draft Mayfield or Allen with Darnold or Rosen still on the board I'll be enraged.

 

[InjuredChoker]

rosen, darnold, allen and mayfield.. that makes it #12 as the furthest they'd drop. the bills have #12.