Salary Cap: Implications of new TV deal signed yesterday

[CoolburnIsGone]

So I know most people down here could care less about the fact that the NHL signed a 12 yr TV deal with a Canadian communications company (worth $5.2 BILLION in total). And all that money is going to the 7 Canadian hockey teams so their revenues are going to show big increases. Thus it has direct implications to all teams in league, including ours, because that contract becomes part of hockey-related revenue and thats what the cap is calculated by. According to James Mirtle that means the cap could go up by $10M in the next 2 yrs.

What does that mean to us? Well it means both the cap floor & ceiling will be rising significantly. So we HAVE to spend more money with the projected floor to be $50M next yr and $55.3M in 2 yrs. While the ceiling is projected to be $67.7M next yr and then $74.8M in 2 yrs. With the ceiling going up so much, a lot of teams will have cap space to add players next yr and beyond as well that are currently tight against the cap. That will make it hard for us to land top free agents still.

Looking at our salary committments, after next yr we will have a LOT of contracts coming off the books (Flash, Upshall, Kopecky, Bergy, Matthias, & Jovo) as UFAs with a lot of money going to those guys. We will have some RFAs to re-sign then though which will help (Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Markstrom, Shore, Petrovic, Howden, & Robak) but it probably wont be as much as the above guys were making is my guess. This offseason we have a lot of UFAs too but mostly of the cheap variety and just 3 RFAs (Gudbranson, Kulikov, & Olsen). Plus we only have $38M committed next yr via 10 players (excluding those RFAs) so it will be interesting to see how we get to $50M next yr.

So the expectation now going forward is you're going to see a lot more free agent contracts as being overpaid. Essentially, I see us having to do another situation like in 2011 where we had to spend a lot of money in free agency on average players and thus, some will be bad contracts in the summer of 2015. As Mirtle says at the end of the article, it will be a good time to be a free agent in the next 2-3 yrs.

Honestly, I dont see how we can keep up with the spending in the next 2 yrs when our revenues wont be able to keep pace. Its definitely concerning regardless of who our owner is or how much money he supposed has. I doubt he's gonna want to spend $60+M/yr on a mediocre product that we most likely will be for the next 2 yrs.

Original announcement: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=437549

Mirtle's article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...jump-10-million-in-two-years/article15627506/

Click to read more...

 

[King Panther]

What is your source for the money all going to the Canadian teams? The Mirtle article said "The good news for the league is that these national revenue sources benefit all teams."

So if anything it seems to make us a more viable team. As for having money to spend on free agents, we will have money once we start winning games and raising prices. That will come in the next 2-3 years hopefully as the kids start to grow up. The only real big dollar signings we should expect are in that last year or so push to the top, which should be a few years away, so hopefully we will have the money by then.

 

[adam graves]

So I know most people down here could care less about the fact that the NHL signed a 12 yr TV deal with a Canadian communications company (worth $5.2 BILLION in total). And all that money is going to the 7 Canadian hockey teams so their revenues are going to show big increases. Thus it has direct implications to all teams in league, including ours, because that contract becomes part of hockey-related revenue and thats what the cap is calculated by. According to James Mirtle that means the cap could go up by $10M in the next 2 yrs.

What does that mean to us? Well it means both the cap floor & ceiling will be rising significantly. So we HAVE to spend more money with the projected floor to be $50M next yr and $55.3M in 2 yrs. While the ceiling is projected to be $67.7M next yr and then $74.8M in 2 yrs. With the ceiling going up so much, a lot of teams will have cap space to add players next yr and beyond as well that are currently tight against the cap. That will make it hard for us to land top free agents still.

Looking at our salary committments, after next yr we will have a LOT of contracts coming off the books (Flash, Upshall, Kopecky, Bergy, Matthias, & Jovo) as UFAs with a lot of money going to those guys. We will have some RFAs to re-sign then though which will help (Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Markstrom, Shore, Petrovic, Howden, & Robak) but it probably wont be as much as the above guys were making is my guess. This offseason we have a lot of UFAs too but mostly of the cheap variety and just 3 RFAs (Gudbranson, Kulikov, & Olsen). Plus we only have $38M committed next yr via 10 players (excluding those RFAs) so it will be interesting to see how we get to $50M next yr.

So the expectation now going forward is you're going to see a lot more free agent contracts as being overpaid. Essentially, I see us having to do another situation like in 2011 where we had to spend a lot of money in free agency on average players and thus, some will be bad contracts in the summer of 2015. As Mirtle says at the end of the article, it will be a good time to be a free agent in the next 2-3 yrs.

Honestly, I dont see how we can keep up with the spending in the next 2 yrs when our revenues wont be able to keep pace. Its definitely concerning regardless of who our owner is or how much money he supposed has. I doubt he's gonna want to spend $60+M/yr on a mediocre product that we most likely will be for the next 2 yrs.

Original announcement: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=437549

Mirtle's article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...jump-10-million-in-two-years/article15627506/

I don't think this owner will tolerate a mediocre product. Add that to our developing youngness, Im betting that we won't be mediocre.

If Viola chooses not to spend, then it will be his empty arena to toll in.

 

[angry_treefrog]

I don't think this owner will tolerate a mediocre product. Add that to our developing youngness, Im betting that we won't be mediocre.

If Viola chooses not to spend, then it will be his empty arena to toll in.

This.

Speaking of revenue and empty arenas, who is the idiot at BAC->BB&T who thinks that charging $14 for a beer is the best way to make revenue from beer sales? Increasing price =/= increasing revenue. Using the bizarre logic that went into that decision... why not charge $100 a beer - they'll make a fortune then. Or better yet, offer a $60M beer - one beer will cover the entire roster for a season!

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

What is your source for the money all going to the Canadian teams? The Mirtle article said "The good news for the league is that these national revenue sources benefit all teams."

So if anything it seems to make us a more viable team. As for having money to spend on free agents, we will have money once we start winning games and raising prices. That will come in the next 2-3 years hopefully as the kids start to grow up. The only real big dollar signings we should expect are in that last year or so push to the top, which should be a few years away, so hopefully we will have the money by then.

Well with how I understand it, its like any TV deal that a team signs. Look at it like the Panthers have a contract with FoxSports Florida. Do you think the Canadiens and Maple Leafs get a piece of that money for that contract? In this case, the deal signed was for the Canadian TV market so thats why i'm saying it goes to those teams. And why its good for the entire league is that the increase in revenue means an increase in the cap which will benefit all teams

How often have we heard in the last 20 yrs that, "once we start winning games, we'll be able to make money". Seriously, its the same story just a different decade now. We continue to hope that the "kids start to grow up" so that we will be good. As I pointed out, we'll need to spend a lot of money in that summer of 2015 and I dont think that will be enough just to re-sign the "kids" to get us there.

I don't think this owner will tolerate a mediocre product. Add that to our developing youngness, Im betting that we won't be mediocre.

If Viola chooses not to spend, then it will be his empty arena to toll in.

And yet he's said he's committed to Tallon's blueprint, which is to develop the young kids and supplement with veterans. The spending would be on the developing youth who would deserve the long term contracts with big money like other teams have done. The problem is that our developing youth arent developing into the top echelon of the league that would deserve that kinda money. Unless these guys become elite NHL players overnight, I'd take that bet that we'll still be a somewhat mediocre product.

And if the arena was empty, I wouldnt be surprised in the least if the decision was made to buyout the remaining yrs of the lease and move the team at that point. With how they asked for some restructuring of the annual payments to the county until 2016, there's definitely going to be some point by then where a LOT more money needs to start coming in. Regardless, I cant see how the ticket prices dont increase next season, even if we still end up as a bottom 5 team in the league in terms of performance.

 

[angry_treefrog]

Regardless, I cant see how the ticket prices dont increase next season, even if we still end up as a bottom 5 team in the league in terms of performance.

So maybe the same guy who decided that $14 beer is a good idea will decide that increasing the price of tickets that aren't selling at the current price will increase profit?

I would love to sit in on the meeting where the "increase prices ... but continue to dump tickets on stubhub for pennies on the dollar" business strategy is presented...

 

[RCGP]

National deals are different from regional deals. This goes to all teams just as the US TV deal goes to all teams. Panthers benefit from increased revenue and it boosts the cap and the floor.

 

[5 Hole]

This.

Speaking of revenue and empty arenas, who is the idiot at BAC->BB&T who thinks that charging $14 for a beer is the best way to make revenue from beer sales? Increasing price =/= increasing revenue. Using the bizarre logic that went into that decision... why not charge $100 a beer - they'll make a fortune then. Or better yet, offer a $60M beer - one beer will cover the entire roster for a season!

Agreed, I refuse to buy beer at the arena. The prices are insane. Maybe that's part of the plan to keep the crowd sober.

 

[jol]

National deals are different from regional deals. This goes to all teams just as the US TV deal goes to all teams. Panthers benefit from increased revenue and it boosts the cap and the floor.

I think Canadian teams get little bit more than USA teams, per team, from this deal. Local deals go to each team. Panthers' new deal pays them about $11 million a year, for 10 years. Much better deal than previous one, but other teams are running away, Toronto $40 million/year, even Kings and Dallas getting $20 million per year.
So Panthers need Yormark till foreseeable future.

JOL

 

[adam graves]

Well with how I understand it, its like any TV deal that a team signs. Look at it like the Panthers have a contract with FoxSports Florida. Do you think the Canadiens and Maple Leafs get a piece of that money for that contract? In this case, the deal signed was for the Canadian TV market so thats why i'm saying it goes to those teams. And why its good for the entire league is that the increase in revenue means an increase in the cap which will benefit all teams

How often have we heard in the last 20 yrs that, "once we start winning games, we'll be able to make money". Seriously, its the same story just a different decade now. We continue to hope that the "kids start to grow up" so that we will be good. As I pointed out, we'll need to spend a lot of money in that summer of 2015 and I dont think that will be enough just to re-sign the "kids" to get us there.
And yet he's said he's committed to Tallon's blueprint, which is to develop the young kids and supplement with veterans. The spending would be on the developing youth who would deserve the long term contracts with big money like other teams have done. The problem is that our developing youth arent developing into the top echelon of the league that would deserve that kinda money. Unless these guys become elite NHL players overnight, I'd take that bet that we'll still be a somewhat mediocre product.

And if the arena was empty, I wouldnt be surprised in the least if the decision was made to buyout the remaining yrs of the lease and move the team at that point. With how they asked for some restructuring of the annual payments to the county until 2016, there's definitely going to be some point by then where a LOT more money needs to start coming in. Regardless, I cant see how the ticket prices dont increase next season, even if we still end up as a bottom 5 team in the league in terms of performance.

The oneous was on cliff to supplement over the offseason and he didn't (which i understand the circumstances, believe me) but as a result we lack talent this year.

The test for Viola will be to sign FA accordingly over the summer to compliment our youth while make us competitive immediately next season. That is a reasonable expectation.

And like I said, if he doesn't he will have no one to blame but himself.

 

[ProjectPanthers]

Well with how I understand it, its like any TV deal that a team signs. Look at it like the Panthers have a contract with FoxSports Florida. Do you think the Canadiens and Maple Leafs get a piece of that money for that contract? In this case, the deal signed was for the Canadian TV market so thats why i'm saying it goes to those teams. And why its good for the entire league is that the increase in revenue means an increase in the cap which will benefit all teams

This is incorrect. ALL 30 NHL teams will be receiving an average of $7 Million in extra money each season from this deal.

The deal IS national for Canada, but it's not an exclusive deal with the Canadian teams. There are still local markets that teams have broadasted (Canucks, Flames, Oilers on Spornsnet, Habs and Jets on TSN, Leafs on both). These channels will remain for now (Sportsnet may be changing things since they are the ones who own the NHL come next season), so the Leafs will still be seen on TSN, as well as Jets and Habs.

Rogers owns about 10 prominent channels in this country, and this allows them to broadcast multiple games in one night, including American matchups. The amount of outlets that Rogers has to get these games out to the masses is the reason that all 30 NHL teams are benefitting.

There's no way Gary Bettman would've had such a **** eating grin on his face all day yesterday if this deal was only for the Canadian franchises.

 

[jol]

The test for Viola will be to sign FA accordingly over the summer to compliment our youth while make us competitive immediately next season. That is a reasonable expectation.

And like I said, if he doesn't he will have no one to blame but himself.

Well, he has to spend lots of money during the off season, accordingly or not.

This is incorrect. ALL 30 NHL teams will be receiving an average of $7 Million in extra money each season from this deal.

US teams get about $5 million, Canadian teams $7 million? And of course, players will get half of that.

JOL

 

[Dread Clawz]

If you're spending 5-6 M on a player, that player is not going to be mediocre. This is nothing but good news for us if Viola remains true to his word to bring in top flight players here.

 

[jol]

If you're spending 5-6 M on a player, that player is not going to be mediocre. This is nothing but good news for us if Viola remains true to his word to bring in top flight players here.

30 teams are getting same money, does that mean salaries will be going up?
(Teams are not really getting extra 5-6 million, they are already getting revenues from existing Canadian deal, but they will be getting more).

JOL

 

[Dread Clawz]

30 teams are getting same money, does that mean salaries will be going up?
(Teams are not really getting extra 5-6 million, they are already getting revenues from existing Canadian deal, but they will be getting more).

JOL

Yes, but not every UFA is going to be paid 5M. It's not like it's going to turn into the Wild West overnight. If we have a lot of cap space, and Viola is willing to spend big like he's promised, then that is only a good thing for the Panthers. Not every team is going to have the same cap space.

 

[ProjectPanthers]

Yes, but not every UFA is going to be paid 5M. It's not like it's going to turn into the Wild West overnight. If we have a lot of cap space, and Viola is willing to spend big like he's promised, then that is only a good thing for the Panthers. Not every team is going to have the same cap space.

At this point, I'm still very skeptical. I've heard this crap before. I want to see impact players come to this team for ONCE in our history damn it.

 

[pb1300]

What is going to be interesting in the future is what is going to happen to this team when the projected cap is around $100 million, and the floor is in the 70s? This is why I think these next couple of offseasons are really going to decide the teams fate. Tallon, or whoever the GM will be, really needs to succeed in free agency. We need to build not only a winning team, but a team that will be attractive to upper level free agents, because if this team fails, I cannot see how they will be able to stay in South Florida.

 

[gudzilla]

What is going to be interesting in the future is what is going to happen to this team when the projected cap is around $100 million, and the floor is in the 70s? This is why I think these next couple of offseasons are really going to decide the teams fate. Tallon, or whoever the GM will be, really needs to succeed in free agency. We need to build not only a winning team, but a team that will be attractive to upper level free agents, because if this team fails, I cannot see how they will be able to stay in South Florida.

lease is signed until 2020s so its impossible to move it prior to that because of the cost of nullifying the contract would be too much IIRC

however, i dont think we'll have any problem attracting fans anyway, hopefully we'll become a fringe playoff team and thats enough to sell A LOT more tickets as history have proven

 

[jol]

Yes, but not every UFA is going to be paid 5M. It's not like it's going to turn into the Wild West overnight. If we have a lot of cap space, and Viola is willing to spend big like he's promised, then that is only a good thing for the Panthers. Not every team is going to have the same cap space.

Players (UFA), GMs (RFA) know that Tallon/Viola has to overspent seriously next summer.

JOL

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

What is going to be interesting in the future is what is going to happen to this team when the projected cap is around $100 million, and the floor is in the 70s? This is why I think these next couple of offseasons are really going to decide the teams fate. Tallon, or whoever the GM will be, really needs to succeed in free agency. We need to build not only a winning team, but a team that will be attractive to upper level free agents, because if this team fails, I cannot see how they will be able to stay in South Florida.

Thats why I brought all this up. Its a scary idea altogether. I dont know how we reach the floor without overpaying a lot of guys. And most of the teams at the cap ceiling now have at least 2-3 guys making $6+M, many have 1-2 guys making $8+M. Do you really see anyone currently in our organization thats worth $8M/yr in the next 2 yrs? Heck salaries are gonna rise too so that probably goes up to $9-10M easy when the floor is $70M and the ceiling is almost $100M.

lease is signed until 2020s so its impossible to move it prior to that because of the cost of nullifying the contract would be too much IIRC

however, i dont think we'll have any problem attracting fans anyway, hopefully we'll become a fringe playoff team and thats enough to sell A LOT more tickets as history have proven

The lease is signed till 2028 but as more yrs come off the lease, the easier it will be to buyout. The cost to nullify the contract will also depend on factoring in how much they're paying on a yearly basis to the county too. I believe the number is something like $5M/yr just annual bond payments and then 20% of any profits over $12M (that may be slightly incorrect but good for ballpark purposes). Ignoring the part of the profits, they'll be paying $75M over the remaining 15 yrs of the lease just in bond payments alone. That doesnt include insurance costs (high because of the threat of hurricanes), the loan they took out a few yrs ago to build Club Red (though that should be finished being repaid after this season), among other things. I believe in 2009 it was estimated that the team paid about $10M/yr just to play in that arena. So that works out to be $150M in 15 yrs. If the cost to buyout the lease is less than $250M, there's definitely still a chance to do so.

Fringe playoff teams dont make enough money to cover the losses every yr, especially when the expenditures are going up as required by the CBA to meet the cap floor. They did a study a few yrs ago that teams need to make it to the 2nd round to actually turn a good profit (I believe thats came from the Devils several yrs ago). We'd have to be a perennial playoff contender to really attract fans in this market. And we need a set of players like the Heat have to really draw fans on a consistent basis, including middle of the week games. Unless Barkov & Huberdeau becomes the next superstar in the league next yr, I'm struggling to see how that will happen.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Players (UFA), GMs (RFA) know that Tallon/Viola has to overspent seriously next summer.

JOL

So if he has to overspend, then he will be bringing in 5-6M forwards, which is a good thing. Do you really think anyone is going to pay Penner, Moulson, Stempniak, etc. 5-6M? No. If you pay 5-6M you are getting a 1st line quality player.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Thats why I brought all this up. Its a scary idea altogether. I dont know how we reach the floor without overpaying a lot of guys. And most of the teams at the cap ceiling now have at least 2-3 guys making $6+M, many have 1-2 guys making $8+M. Do you really see anyone currently in our organization thats worth $8M/yr in the next 2 yrs? Heck salaries are gonna rise too so that probably goes up to $9-10M easy when the floor is $70M and the ceiling is almost $100M.

I could easily see Barkov being worth 6M in two years. And also Bjugstad and Huby being worth around 5M. Even if you overpay a little, but make it worth your while by signing them to really long term deals, then that's certainly not the worst thing IMO. I'd love to lock those guys up until they are 30 in their next contract. Barkov has the potential to be one of the top forwards in the league eventually.

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

So if he has to overspend, then he will be bringing in 5-6M forwards, which is a good thing. Do you really think anyone is going to pay Penner, Moulson, Stempniak, etc. 5-6M? No. If you pay 5-6M you are getting a 1st line quality player.

If you look at how free agents often get pay increases, you'll see you could actually be wrong about anyone giving guys like Moulson & Stempniak close to $5M. I would bet you money that Moulson should get $5+M as a free agent, considering he's a 3-time 30 goal scorer and even playing for a bad Buffalo team is on pace for another 30 goal season.

Especially when you factor in that the cap next season is going up by over $4M, guys who are free agents this summer are gonna get good increases in salary who are performing well. Look at the guys we signed in 2011 and see how many of them got close to $2M increases in salary (Flash, Kopecky, Bergy). Heck Weiss got 4.9M on a 5 yr deal (almost 5M) coming off an injury-filled yr and I think we all know he's at best a 2nd liner. So I'm sorry but 5M does not get you a 1st liner anymore. I think the bare minimum these days to sign a 1st liner is gonna be $7-8M, especially as a free agent.

I could easily see Barkov being worth 6M in two years. And also Bjugstad and Huby being worth around 5M. Even if you overpay a little, but make it worth your while by signing them to really long term deals, then that's certainly not the worst thing IMO. I'd love to lock those guys up until they are 30 in their next contract. Barkov has the potential to be one of the top forwards in the league eventually.

Yes I could see those numbers for those guys but then guys like Getzlaf, Perry, Giroux, etc are all getting $7-9M now who are top forwards in the league so paying our guys so much less tells me we're still gonna be a cap floor team. I dont see how we can become a perennial contender being a cap floor team.

 

[Dread Clawz]

If you look at how free agents often get pay increases, you'll see you could actually be wrong about anyone giving guys like Moulson & Stempniak close to $5M. I would bet you money that Moulson should get $5+M as a free agent, considering he's a 3-time 30 goal scorer and even playing for a bad Buffalo team is on pace for another 30 goal season.

Especially when you factor in that the cap next season is going up by over $4M, guys who are free agents this summer are gonna get good increases in salary who are performing well. Look at the guys we signed in 2011 and see how many of them got close to $2M increases in salary (Flash, Kopecky, Bergy). Heck Weiss got 4.9M on a 5 yr deal (almost 5M) coming off an injury-filled yr and I think we all know he's at best a 2nd liner. So I'm sorry but 5M does not get you a 1st liner anymore. I think the bare minimum these days to sign a 1st liner is gonna be $7-8M, especially as a free agent.

I could see Moulson getting 4.5 or something, but I seriously doubt he's gonna get 5. Maybe. But Penner, Stempniak, Boyes etc? Not gonna happen. My point was that C level UFA's aren't going to be paid 5-6M. Moulson probably wasn't the best example, he's probably B level. If you're paying A and B level UFA's 5-6M, that's fine with me.

Kopecky and Bergy deserved substantial pay increases based on their body of work in the past. It was assumed they'd get a big bump in their next contract. Bergy had just come off a spectacular playoff run following a solid regular season. Kopecky was a 2-time SC champ who played a secondary/tertiary yet pivotal role in both of them. Flash was paid according to potential, because when you looked at his pro-rated numbers the prior season, he was on pace to be a 2nd line scorer. Tallon was right in his assumption, and Flash scored 60 pts. for us. His salary is in line with a 60 pt. scorer. But guys like Stempniak for example who aren't having big seasons, will not suddenly get a huge bump in salary just because the cap is going up. There's no way anyone's going to pay Lee Stempniak 5M.

Weiss had been underpaid for years, we all know that, and he's a 2nd liner, but he's a center and up until this season had been a high end 2nd line center. He hardly played in 12-13 and he did he was injured so it's hard to say how much he would have produced had he been healthy. Weiss has proved himself a heck of a lot more than Stempniak.

While I agree that salaries are going up, I don't think the bare minimum for a 1st line player is 7-8M. Unless you have very strict standards for a 1st line player, because there are very few forwards making that right now.

And you're kind of missing the point because all I was saying is that the more we are required to spend, the better, because it means higher quality players. So if we pay 7-8M instead of 5-6M for a forward then it means we are getting a better player.

Yes I could see those numbers for those guys but then guys like Getzlaf, Perry, Giroux, etc are all getting $7-9M now who are top forwards in the league so paying our guys so much less tells me we're still gonna be a cap floor team. I dont see how we can become a perennial contender being a cap floor team.

Aren't you contradicting yourself now? Because you were so worried we'd be paying so much, but now you're worried we won't be paying enough? Come on. We are not in the middle of a crisis. We'll reach the cap floor like we have to, and pick up a high quality forward or two along the way. Yeah, there will always be teams that will spend more than us probably, but that doesn't mean we still can't have success.

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

I could see Moulson getting 4.5 or something, but I seriously doubt he's gonna get 5. Maybe. But Penner, Stempniak, Boyes etc? Not gonna happen. My point was that C level UFA's aren't going to be paid 5-6M. Moulson probably wasn't the best example, he's probably B level. If you're paying A and B level UFA's 5-6M, that's fine with me.

I dont understand how you cant see a team overpaying Moulson who's a 3 time 30 goal scorer and will probably do it again this yr in a contract yr. He's easily gonna get $5M, maybe closer to $6M when you factor the cap is going up....heck if he was even that cheap (5-6M), we should go after him. Teams like big bodies like Penner and he's performing well this yr for Anaheim (20 pts in 21 games)...wont get $5-6M but he'll get closer to $4-4.5M IMO. Stempniak is also performing well this yr (on pace for 40+ pts again) and has shown mostly consistency over his career that he's capable of 20 goals & at least 40 pts a season. I'm sure someone will pay him at least what Flash got from us ($4.5M). The reason Boyes wont get big money is because he's not really a complete player so teams wont overpay for him. Penner & Stempniak arent even B level UFAs, those are C-level guys and they're gonna still get in the $4M range. B level guys are ones getting $5-6M (look at Weiss, Filppula, Clarkson) but A level guys will be getting $7+M guaranteed. Heck guys like Thornton, Vanek, Marleau are already making that much so unless one of them takes a discount to stay where they are, they'll get over $7M for sure.

Kopecky and Bergy deserved substantial pay increases based on their body of work in the past. It was assumed they'd get a big bump in their next contract. Bergy had just come off a spectacular playoff run following a solid regular season. Kopecky was a 2-time SC champ who played a secondary/tertiary yet pivotal role in both of them. Flash was paid according to potential, because when you looked at his pro-rated numbers the prior season, he was on pace to be a 2nd line scorer. Tallon was right in his assumption, and Flash scored 60 pts. for us. His salary is in line with a 60 pt. scorer. But guys like Stempniak for example who aren't having big seasons, will not suddenly get a huge bump in salary just because the cap is going up. There's no way anyone's going to pay Lee Stempniak 5M.

Kopecky had one good yr, same thing with Bergy too. They got pay raises because the market dictated that as well. Guys coming off good seasons as free agents ALWAYS end up getting pay raises. Before the broken foot this yr, Stempniak actually was having a good season (was almost at a PPG pace). He's missed just 7 games with a broken foot so I'm sure he's not playing at 100% right now. Maybe Stempniak wont make $5M but I bet he's gonna get at least as much as Fleischman.

Weiss had been underpaid for years, we all know that, and he's a 2nd liner, but he's a center and up until this season had been a high end 2nd line center. He hardly played in 12-13 and he did he was injured so it's hard to say how much he would have produced had he been healthy. Weiss has proved himself a heck of a lot more than Stempniak.

No GM is gonna care that Weiss was underpaid for yrs. They only factor in what they can do for their team. Guys like Weiss, Filppula, Clarkson all are getting in the $5M range as 2nd liners. Stempniak may not have proven to be as prolific of a scorer over his career compared to Weiss but he's still gonna have the better season going into free agency. A team looking for a guy that could play on the 2nd line for the next few yrs and eventually still be servicable in a 3rd line role will not have a problem paying Stempniak the same kinda money as Weiss.

While I agree that salaries are going up, I don't think the bare minimum for a 1st line player is 7-8M. Unless you have very strict standards for a 1st line player, because there are very few forwards making that right now.

And you're kind of missing the point because all I was saying is that the more we are required to spend, the better, because it means higher quality players. So if we pay 7-8M instead of 5-6M for a forward then it means we are getting a better player.

I cant see how you're not understanding that 1st line players are already basically making $7M before they even hit free agency. There are 21 forwards making $6.7M and up right now (which is before the cap goes up) and many signed those deals as RFAs with long term deals. Iginla got $6M last yr with a reduced cap situation. Marleau makes $6.9M right now, you dont think he's gonna get a raise and he's a 1st line forward. Thornton is making $7M now and also a top line forward. Parise got $7.5M as a UFA in 2011 and no question he's a 1st liner. There are plenty of guys who just signed big extensions too that kick in next yr and will be making over $7M (Giroux, Getzlaf, Perry, both Sedins).

No I understand what your point is but I disagree with it. You seem to be missing my point that players signed in free agency are often going to be overpaid for what they bring. So signing a player at $5-6M this summer isnt going to get you a 1st line player. Steen looks like the perfect example for this summer...you know based on this yr's performance that he's gonna get probably close to $6M/yr but I seriously doubt he reproduces those stats in future yrs. His career high before this yr was 51 pts (was on pace for about 54 though last yr). I would bet that he's gonna definitely be in the $5-6M range no question and he's not a true 1st liner. So to get a 1st liner, you need to pay $7-9M this summer and thats if you can even convince one of those guys to come here.

Aren't you contradicting yourself now? Because you were so worried we'd be paying so much, but now you're worried we won't be paying enough? Come on. We are not in the middle of a crisis. We'll reach the cap floor like we have to, and pick up a high quality forward or two along the way. Yeah, there will always be teams that will spend more than us probably, but that doesn't mean we still can't have success.

Not at all, actually. As I said, in free agency I would worry that we overpay for average players coming off good seasons who dont produce enough for us. I think Barkov could get $6M and Huberdeau could get $5M for sure on their next deals. But to me, those numbers will be the pay rate of 2nd liners in this new salary cap world. Thats not me worrying we wont be paying them enough...thats me worrying that they dont become the next Getzlaf's, Perry's, Giroux's, Parise's, etc. to deserve one of the bigger contracts deserving of franchise players. If those 2 guys, specifically, dont end up making $7-9M/yr soon (meaning they are top 20 players in the league), then I think we're in for a longer road ahead of us than you think.