IF we had an average Goalie....

[NewBoysClub97*]

I'm pretty sure everybody agrees it is both. It doesn't mean our goalies don't let in super bad goals.

Look at the Vancouver game. Beartchi flubs a softy right through his five hole. Yes, he shouldn't have been that open, but if Scrivens keeps his stick where it should be it's a save.

Beartchi's second goal was brutal too. Same thing with the stick.

Even that Horvat goal. 5 hole again. He doesn't do simple things properly.

 

[FunkyChicken]

If we had even average management, how many more wins would we have?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The stats being tossed about to claim our goaltending is the problem and our defense is fine is ludicrous.

Anyone can cherry pick or manipulate stats to mislead to suit an argument. That is all that is happening here.

The quality of the scoring chances the Oilers are giving up is off the charts bad. Our defence is off the chart bad. Which makes sense with who we are using.

Damn near everyone and their inlaws said Scrivens and Fasthe is the best goaltending the Oilers have had since Rollie.

Revisionist may try to say otherwise but this team ruins goalies not the other way around.

The defense, the goalies, the team is terrible. They all are the problem, but none are the sole cause. If the Oilers had average goaltending, they would still be terrible.

 

[LTIR]

I'm pretty sure everybody agrees it is both. It doesn't mean our goalies don't let in super bad goals.

Look at the Vancouver game. Beartchi flubs a softy right through his five hole. Yes, he shouldn't have been that open, but if Scrivens keeps his stick where it should be it's a save.

Beartchi's second goal was brutal too. Same thing with the stick.

Even that Horvat goal. 5 hole again. He doesn't do simple things properly.

An average NHL goalie would have made similiar average mistakes.
How many of the goals that were scored by the Oilers would have been stopped by an average NHL goalie?

We want guys like Jones, Neimi, Miller yet they were hardly good against a basement team like the Oilers.

 

[NewBoysClub97*]

I am scared that they will get Neimi. He's made $$, won a cup, is getting older, etc. Could be a nice retirement contract for him.

 

[Kepler 186f]

I'm pretty sure everybody agrees it is both. It doesn't mean our goalies don't let in super bad goals.

Look at the Vancouver game. Beartchi flubs a softy right through his five hole. Yes, he shouldn't have been that open, but if Scrivens keeps his stick where it should be it's a save.

Beartchi's second goal was brutal too. Same thing with the stick.

Even that Horvat goal. 5 hole again. He doesn't do simple things properly.

Miller was even worse. That game is a bad example.

 

[Aerchon]

I'm pretty sure everybody agrees it is both. It doesn't mean our goalies don't let in super bad goals.

Look at the Vancouver game. Beartchi flubs a softy right through his five hole. Yes, he shouldn't have been that open, but if Scrivens keeps his stick where it should be it's a save.

Beartchi's second goal was brutal too. Same thing with the stick.

Even that Horvat goal. 5 hole again. He doesn't do simple things properly.

That was Scrivens worst performance of the year tho. By a lot actually. I wanted him tossed in that game asap, don't understand how Nelson didn't see him struggling.

Not that Scrivens was good the rest of the year but generally speaking he was "average" for a lot of the season, and even had a few good to great games that we still lost.

Goaltending does need to improve but, as mentioned, even a goalie like Carey Price would have a sub .900 save percentage in front of this defense.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Does the "scoring chance" number also take into account puck movement before shots are taken? Not just where the shots are taken? One of the biggest issues with the Oilers is the amount of puck movement we allow in our zone that leads up to shots. Stopping a shot that you're set up for is much easier than a shot taken after the puck is moved a distance and the goalie has move to line up towards the shot first. I think most scoring chance data only takes into account shot location.

Saw this article the other day, a pretty involved look at the difference in shot quality (including puck movement before shots) that Dubs faced in Edmonton compared to what he faces now on other teams.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/examining-dubnyks-wild-comeback-season/

It's an extreme case of course, because Minny is in another league as far as defensive coverage goes which really shows why Dubs sav% skyrocketed to such a degree, but still, the Oilers are likely in their own league compared to most any team in the NHL at bad coverage in our end that allows teams to do whatever they like with the puck before taking their high quality chances.

heres what scoring chances are defined as http://war-on-ice.com/glossary.html bottom of the page. Although when other people have presented data they said scoring chances used by this site consider shots timing after the first shot. shot timing after a block and if its a rush opportunity


As you said. Minnesota is the best or one of the best defensive teams in the league. Their problem most the season was that Kuemper had a terrible save percentage on low quality shots. Only slightly better then Scrivens and fasth

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

The stats being tossed about to claim our goaltending is the problem and our defense is fine is ludicrous.

Anyone can cherry pick or manipulate stats to mislead to suit an argument. That is all that is happening here.

The quality of the scoring chances the Oilers are giving up is off the charts bad. Our defence is off the chart bad. Which makes sense with who we are using.

Damn near everyone and their inlaws said Scrivens and Fasthe is the best goaltending the Oilers have had since Rollie.

Revisionist may try to say otherwise but this team ruins goalies not the other way around.

the data being showed says that the oilers are the 5th worst team for scoring chances against.... That doesnt mean they cant make the playoffs it just makes it unlikely imo. Calgary is actually worse but they made it with their forwards having high shooting percentages and their goalies being average.

The paul maclean senators had the same scoring chances against as the oilers and gave up the 2nd most shots in the league but craig anderson had a top 3 save percentage. Being a bad defensive team doesnt automatially mean the goalie will suck

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

Maybe 1 spot higher in the standings.

There are much bigger problems than goaltending. Management can and will continue to point the finger at anyone but themselves.

 

[Oil Gauge]

Dubnyk is the perfect example of how playing behind a bad defence can negatively effect a goalies performance. Not only do you face more prime scoring chances but your confidence takes a big hit too. You try to over play and cheat because you don't trust your defence instead of just focussing on the shooter.

At this point I think it is unfair to throw Scrivens under the bus. He has proven that he can put up good numbers when he has a good team in front of him.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Dubnyk is the perfect example of how playing behind a bad defence can negatively effect a goalies performance. Not only do you face more prime scoring chances but your confidence takes a big hit too. You try to over play and cheat because you don't trust your defence instead of just focussing on the shooter.

At this point I think it is unfair to throw Scrivens under the bus. He has proven that he can put up good numbers when he has a good team in front of him.

Dubnyk is an example of a guy who saw the writing on the wall about being almost done as an NHLer, and got on a hot streak.

 

[Oil Gauge]

Dubnyk is an example of a guy who saw the writing on the wall about being almost done as an NHLer, and got on a hot streak.

Which he would have had no chance of doing in edmonton

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Which he would have had no chance of doing in edmonton

And giving up on him after 10 years of development and his failure as a player, isn't unreasonable action to take with him either.

 

[frag2]

The stats being tossed about to claim our goaltending is the problem and our defense is fine is ludicrous.

Anyone can cherry pick or manipulate stats to mislead to suit an argument. That is all that is happening here.

The quality of the scoring chances the Oilers are giving up is off the charts bad. Our defence is off the chart bad. Which makes sense with who we are using.

Damn near everyone and their inlaws said Scrivens and Fasthe is the best goaltending the Oilers have had since Rollie.

Revisionist may try to say otherwise but this team ruins goalies not the other way around.

The problem with many of Sievens goals was that not all of them were quality scoring chances. A flub would go in on the guy. Hell, player down the wing from face off circle would slap one in and it'll fly past his awkward glove. One could argue the defense could do a better job but at what point does the blame start falling on the goalie.

It's like that old saying when we rolled the 3 headed monster..."if we only had a goalie that could just make that ONE save..."

Dubnyk is the perfect example of how playing behind a bad defence can negatively effect a goalies performance. Not only do you face more prime scoring chances but your confidence takes a big hit too. You try to over play and cheat because you don't trust your defence instead of just focussing on the shooter.

At this point I think it is unfair to throw Scrivens under the bus. He has proven that he can put up good numbers when he has a good team in front of him.

Dubnyk wasn't smart and was stubborn as **** in his last year here. Had nothing to do with bad defence [though that didnt help].

Dubnyk's last year was a mind**** on his own part and he at least owned up to it to better himself.

And that last line about Sievens can put up good numbers when he has a good team in front of him...be realistic, this team wont just miraculously become good overnight. We have OBC running the show; they aren't going to improve this team enough to mitigate Sievens ****** play

 

[Jmask83]

Again the point here to try and figure out how far away this team is? When you look at the wins snd losses we look like we are still another 5 years away. But I dont think thats fair.

I think our forwards are probably the best we've had since drafting Hall.

Our Goaltending on the other hand is the worst we've had. Our D has been the worst as well.

Two very important positions when it comes to winning games and we really have nothing to be excited about.

 

[Aerchon]

The problem with many of Sievens goals was that not all of them were quality scoring chances. A flub would go in on the guy. Hell, player down the wing from face off circle would slap one in and it'll fly past his awkward glove. One could argue the defense could do a better job but at what point does the blame start falling on the goalie.

It's like that old saying when we rolled the 3 headed monster..."if we only had a goalie that could just make that ONE save..."

Dubnyk wasn't smart and was stubborn as **** in his last year here. Had nothing to do with bad defence [though that didnt help].

Dubnyk's last year was a mind**** on his own part and he at least owned up to it to better himself.

And that last line about Sievens can put up good numbers when he has a good team in front of him...be realistic, this team wont just miraculously become good overnight. We have OBC running the show; they aren't going to improve this team enough to mitigate Sievens ****** play

I find the part I bolded very interesting. Most people well remember that even when Dub had good numbers, he would let in a lot of flubs. Game losing flubs, worst moment flubs, you name it flubs.

Dub was notorious for letting in soft goals and was without doubt far worse at doing so even while sporting a .920 save percentage than Scrivens was this year.

I am starting to go into conspiracy theory mode here.

5 minutes into that last game I knew we going to lose because Scrivens body language was $%^&*&. He was making himself as small as possible, not reacting or overreacting on everything. The score really should have been 10-5 for Van if they actually tried.

It seemed intentional and I thought it might just be him being bitter for riding the pine for the last while but maybe, just MAYBE it was intentional to make him into a goat for the terrible season.

Mac T/The organization formally part of the city of champions blames everything on goaltending to try to save as many season ticket holders as possible.

Especially when he goes and pulls the trigger on his first "bold move" that sends Scrivens, Yak, and our first overall this year to Ottawa for Anderson.

He can then be heralded as a savior and claim we are going to the cup now that our biggest weakness has finally been addressed.

I think I am on something...
















yes that was intentional.

 

[Jmask83]

Here is some number to prove that D and Goaltending have gotten worse

http://oilersnation.com/2015/4/14/showing-craig-mactavish-s-work

Cant win with this kind of D and Goaltending.

 

[Mr Sakich]

5v5

the edmonton oilers rank 25th in scoring chances against per waronice. Calgary ranks 26th and made the playoffs.

Under nelson the oilers gave up more scoring chances going from 25th to 29th.

Any goalie would struggle.

But.... under paul maclean the sens had the same scoring chances against as the oilers and Craig Anderson had a .930 save percentage

The oilers also have a similar scoring chance per 60 as the flames which is kinda funny... so the flames made the playoffs because their players had higher shooting percentages and their goalies were better.

Edmonton is one place removed from the Canadiens in scoring chance plus minus and 2 removed from the flames.

So its conceivable imo that the oilers make the playoffs if their shooters score more and their goalies play better even with this number of scoring chances against

5v5 goalies with 1000 mins
A closer look at the edmonton and flames goalies. Hiller saved 96.84 of 100 low quality shots well Scrivens saved a league worst 94.21 and Fasth saved 3rd worst in the league 94.65.

For those who are curious about who let in more soft goals then Fasth... Robin Lehner for ottawa saved 94.37 good for 2nd worst in the league on soft goals. James Reimer ranked 7th worst

For medium chance goals Fasth is 2nd worst and Scrivens is 8th worst. The only regular start as bad is Ryan Miller.

Its not just the scoring chances. The oilers truly do have the worst starting goalies in the league

good post

you could use only the soft and medium goals. Measure Oiler goaltender performance vs league average in those two metrics and calculate the number of extra goals we gave up.

Ignore the hard shots because the oilers' hard shots are somehow different than other teams' hard shots. For giggles, you could include these as well

Historically, each goal scored is worth 0.3 points (*) at the end of the season. If the oiler goaltenders allowed 60 extra goals on easy / medium shots vis a vis nhl average, than having nhl average goaltending would be worth 20 points. It is actually pretty easy

* source - http://www.broadstreethockey.com/20...ehind-the-curtain-how-do-numbers-get-analyzed

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

From my limited analysis of Dubnyk. He technically wasnt a solid goalie. He put to much pressure on his glove side by going down to early in edmonton. This problem was not rectified till he started working with Burke. I also think he was poor at using his size. Hes a huge guy but didnt look big in net

Some interesting things about Dubnyk. Well playing in phoenix he had the highest save percentage in the league on high quality scoring chances

 

[Oil Gauge]

Dubnyk wasn't smart and was stubborn as **** in his last year here. Had nothing to do with bad defence [though that didnt help].

Dubnyk's last year was a mind**** on his own part and he at least owned up to it to better himself.

And that last line about Sievens can put up good numbers when he has a good team in front of him...be realistic, this team wont just miraculously become good overnight. We have OBC running the show; they aren't going to improve this team enough to mitigate Sievens ****** play

That's exactly what I was saying about Dubnyk's play being effected by poor defence. When you don't trust your defence you start to think about the cross crease or backdoor play, you sit too deep in your net and cheat to cover the play that your defender should have. That is a mind****.

Scrivens put up a .931 in 19 games with the kings. His **** play this year is a byproduct of his teams performance and the effect it has on his confidence and his trust in his team.

Even last year when they acquired him from LA you could see his confidence being eroded the more he played with the Oilers.