Speculation: If This The Year We Retire Daniel Alfredsson's Number 11 Alongside Finnigan's 8?

[Sens Mile]

Enough time has passed. Its time.

Click to read more...

 

[BonkTastic]

Thy'll wait until ticket sales are low and use it as some sort of incentive to get people into the building for some Tuesday night game vs Arizona.

Might not happen this year. I think they'll wait to see what kind of position Alfie wants to continue on in the organization with, and play it by ear from there.

 

[trentmccleary]

He could be inducted next June. You'd think that they'd want to do it before then...

 

[Knave]

Hold out for opening night in the new arena in 202X.

 

[BonkTastic]

He could be inducted next June. You'd think that they'd want to do it before then...

I love Alfie, but I don't think he's a first-ballot guy.

Recchi still isn't in. Mogilny isn't in. Kariya isn't in. Lindros inexplicably & mind-bogglingly isn't in. Andreychuk's 640 goals still aren't in. It took Phil Housley 9 years to get in. Shanahan wasn't a 1st ballot guy. Doug Gilmour took years to get in. Pat Burns being snubbed for a few years and waiting until he passed to induct him was borderline criminal.

Alfie I think gets in, but I also think he waits for a little bit first.

 

[trentmccleary]

There aren't any first ballot types this year, so the Hall could clean up 4 if they chose to go that route.

Selanne is the only guaranteed first ballot next year.

All of the guys you listed have more than enough warts and some of them will never get in.

 

[BonkTastic]

All of the guys you listed have more than enough warts and some of them will never get in.

I consider all of those guys to be roughly in Alfie's range of HHOF worthiness.

If you think some of the above guys might not get in at all, then IMO there are questions about Alfie's chances as well.

 

[trentmccleary]

I think Recchi and Kariya should get in soon, maybe this year.
Mogilny never.
Lindros may be waiting for the old guard to die before he gets in, if he gets in. His great peak was injury plagued, his counting totals are low and he's rubbed the establishment the wrong way since day 1. The HHOF has character components for eligibility. They'll be used to keep him out as long as possible.
Andreychuk was such a mediocre compiler. I don't know if anybody is in a rush to induct him.

Anyways, this is a completely open year... a rare occurrence. They can clear the backlog as they see fit, which leaves Selanne next year and up to 3 slots Alfie could be inducted in to. It's not always about relative standards, there's annual competition. The two years with only one slam dunk will help his chances greatly.

 

[The Lewler]

I think Recchi and Kariya should get in soon, maybe this year.
Mogilny never.
Lindros may be waiting for the old guard to die before he gets in, if he gets in. His great peak was injury plagued, his counting totals are low and he's rubbed the establishment the wrong way since day 1. The HHOF has character components for eligibility. They'll be used to keep him out as long as possible.
Andreychuk was such a mediocre compiler. I don't know if anybody is in a rush to induct him.

Anyways, this is a completely open year... a rare occurrence. They can clear the backlog as they see fit, which leaves Selanne next year and up to 3 slots Alfie could be inducted in to. It's not always about relative standards, there's annual competition. The two years with only one slam dunk will help his chances greatly.

Dave Andreychuck is the all time leader in PPG's .. has 14th most goals with 640-ish, had 14 straight years of 20+goals seasons (with 5 x 30+ goal seasons, 2 x 40 goal+ seasons, and a 52 goal season) in that span.

Plus, whatever his actual contribution was that year, he was the Captain when Tampa won it's cup.

He's going to get in ahead of alot of these marginal guys, and deservedly so.

Recchi gets in first, then after that you have Andreychuck/Kariya , then a toss up.

 

[trentmccleary]

Andreychuk was a one-dimensional goalscorer with only two top-10 goals finishes. His 1980's seasons all adjust to 30 goal, 60 point seasons. He was basically something between Doan and Nash... before he declined into a 2nd/3rd liner for the last 10 seasons of his career. His only merit is based on "1980's" and "22 seasons". He was never elite.

 

[Sens Rule]

I love Alfie, but I don't think he's a first-ballot guy.

Recchi still isn't in. Mogilny isn't in. Kariya isn't in. Lindros inexplicably & mind-bogglingly isn't in. Andreychuk's 640 goals still aren't in. It took Phil Housley 9 years to get in. Shanahan wasn't a 1st ballot guy. Doug Gilmour took years to get in. Pat Burns being snubbed for a few years and waiting until he passed to induct him was borderline criminal.

Alfie I think gets in, but I also think he waits for a little bit first.

Andreychuk and Mogilny will not get voted in. And it affects Alfie not at all because he had a better career then both.

 

[BonkTastic]

Andreychuk was a one-dimensional goalscorer with only two top-10 goals finishes. His 1980's seasons all adjust to 30 goal, 60 point seasons. He was basically something between Doan and Nash... before he declined into a 2nd/3rd liner for the last 10 seasons of his career. His only merit is based on "1980's" and "22 seasons". He was never elite.

Mike Gartner, Dino Ciccarelli, and Glenn Anderson say otherwise.

At least as far as HHOF worthiness is concerned.

 

[BonkTastic]

Andreychuk and Mogilny will not get voted in. And it affects Alfie not at all because he had a better career then both.

By what metric?

 

[Sens Rule]

By what metric?

By every one?

Added... Alfredsson is an elite defensive player. To me he was the best player overall on a playoff team for virtually his entire career.

How long were Mogilny or Andreychuk the best player on his team? A couple of times?

 

[BonkTastic]

By every one?

OK, let's start...

- Both Andreychuck and Mogilny have more goals and more goals-per-game than Alfredsson.

- Andreychuck has eight 30 goal seasons, two 40 goal seasons, and a 50 goal season.

- Mogilny has eight 30 goal seasons, three 40 goal seasons, two 50 goal seasons, and one ungodly 76 goal season.

- Both Andreychuck and Mogilny have Cups, Alfie doesn't.

- Mogilny has higher PPG. Anderson has more points.

Those are all metrics in which both Mogilny and Andreychuck were better. Now, there's a lot of context missing there, but quite frankly, the HHOF often ignores context. This is my point in asking "By what metric is Alfredsson better", because while you and I can make a very good case that Alfredsson was better than both, this is the same institution that elected Dick Duff and Clark Gillies into the HHOF, so you know their view of context is at best handicapped. They look at total goals. They look at longevity. They look at "Cup Wins". They look at team achievements despite the fact that it's an individual recognition. They look at guys on winning teams/dynasties more than they look at guys on smaller market teams. They look at guys who got more press.

The admission for the HHOF is flawed, and as long as it is, there are definitely metrics that, even though you and I don't agree with them, will get Andreychuck and/or Mogilny into the HHOF before Alfredson... especially if there is a sympathy campaign out in the general public that these players have been "snubbed" in the past.

 

[Proust*]

I don't think anyone from the 80s should get in. I would have been a 20 goal scorer in that decade.

 

[Caeldan]

Yeah I don't see Alfie's number retired until after he makes the HHOF.
Personally I feel his career was equivalent, if not arguably better to Sundin... So I think he gets in.

After that point we either honour or retire his number

 

[BonkTastic]

Personally I feel his career was equivalent, if not arguably better to Sundin... So I think he gets in.

I think Sundin gets an "ever the slightest edge" because his peak was sustained longer than Alfie's, but yeah, pretty equivalent otherwise.

I think Alfie gets in. I think my whole point with the examples I brought up is that the HHOF is unpredictable and unreliable as far as making the right choices at the right times, so to assume Alfie is a first-ballot guys is jumping the gun.

 

[Sun God Nika]

It should be retired opening night in the new arena.

 

[aragorn]

Yeah I don't see Alfie's number retired until after he makes the HHOF.
Personally I feel his career was equivalent, if not arguably better to Sundin... So I think he gets in.

After that point we either honour or retire his number

Sundin not only played for the Leafs, he was their captain & he is going to have a ton of sports writers & sports personalities backing him to get in. Don Cherry will probably go on a couple of rants on his behalf to garner support, who does Alfie have on his side? I don't think Alfie has the numbers to get in personally & he never won a cup, he will probably get his jersey raised or retired here in Ottawa but I doubt he gets the HHOF. We'll see.

 

[Langdon Alger]

It should be retired opening night in the new arena.

Why wait that long? His number should be retired this year. It doesn't matter if he makes the hall of fame or not. Retire the man's number.

 

[Canadian Time]

Sundin not only played for the Leafs, he was their captain & he is going to have a ton of sports writers & sports personalities backing him to get in. Don Cherry will probably go on a couple of rants on his behalf to garner support, who does Alfie have on his side? I don't think Alfie has the numbers to get in personally & he never won a cup, he will probably get his jersey raised or retired here in Ottawa but I doubt he gets the HHOF. We'll see.

Sundin's already in, he was inducted a couple of years ago as a first ballot. I think Alfie will get in but it might not be first ballot. Alfie's production is close to Sundin's and factoring in that Sundin's early production was during the high-scoring era, Alfie's is more impressive.

As for retiring his jersey, I think it will be this year because of Murray's health. It would be a nice celebration.

 

[MarkStone]

By what metric?

Not to mention it is a hall of fame and Alfie was an actual icon of an NHL franchise and community. You can't say that for Mogilny or even Andreychuk (despite having the captaincy and having that nice cup win swansong).

 

[trentmccleary]

I think Sundin gets an "ever the slightest edge" because his peak was sustained longer than Alfie's, but yeah, pretty equivalent otherwise.

I think Alfie gets in. I think my whole point with the examples I brought up is that the HHOF is unpredictable and unreliable as far as making the right choices at the right times, so to assume Alfie is a first-ballot guys is jumping the gun.

If there had been two likely HHOF's among the 2016 class and another two for the 2017 class, I'd have been a lot less optimistic. But there's Jack All this year, so the voters can use it to clear backlog. The guys who get left off after this year probably have a pretty slim chance of ever getting in. There won't be much of a backlog left for 2017.

Even better for Alfredsson is just the way that 2017 class looks.

Selanne..... Alfredsson...... R. Smyth, T.Thomas, R. Whitney, S. Koivu, JS Giguere, E. Jovanovski, T. Kaberle, T. Vokoun, etc

I think that voters are going to draw lines in the sand where I did. When they see those players, it will look obvious that Alfredsson is getting in one day. But after clearing the deck in 2016, Alfie could just be lucky that it's clear sailing on his first try.

OK, let's start...

- Both Andreychuck and Mogilny have more goals and more goals-per-game than Alfredsson.

- Andreychuck has eight 30 goal seasons, two 40 goal seasons, and a 50 goal season.

- Mogilny has eight 30 goal seasons, three 40 goal seasons, two 50 goal seasons, and one ungodly 76 goal season.

- Mogilny has higher PPG. Anderson has more points.

Because they played significant time in an easy era to score in.

When they're era adjusted, Andreychuk is nowhere near Alfredsson offensively. Alfredsson destroys him in points and PPG. Andreychuk's goalscoring rate is slightly ahead, but not particularly impressive compared to Alfredsson considering the fact that Andreychuk had no other use on the ice except to score goals. Meanwhile, Alfredsson did everything on the ice except play goalie.

You might think that the old school guys are easily fooled by the high scoring 1980's, but they were also around back then to watch Andreychuk in his prime. He was a 1-dimensional, cherry picker who scored goals when it was easy to score while getting lots of ice time on terrible teams. Maybe some of them ask themselves if they could've won if he was their best or 2nd best forward.

Andreychuk finished Top-10 in G (2), Pts (1), PPG a total of 3 times.
Never finished Top-10 for a Trophy. Never finished on a AS Team.

Alfredsson finished Top-10 in G (3), Pts (3), PPG (3) a total of 9 times.
Won the Calder, Clancy and Messier. 2nd AS Team. Alfredsson destroyed both Andreychuk and Mogilny in Trophy voting throughout their careers.

Andreychuk was never anywhere near the offensive or defensive player that Alfredsson was, not even close. Andreychuk actually adjusts to 11 points fewer than Alfredsson in 400 more career games.

Mogilny is at least the same class of offensive player.

Mogilny has the two big goalscoring seasons, but his production dropped off otherwise due to injury and inconsistency. He doesn't have nearly as many productive seasons as Alfredsson and Alfie was much better defensively too. Mogilny just doesn't have a high enough peak to contend with Alfredsson's consistency or all round game.

Re: Mogilny's PPG... his career effectively ended at 34yo and he played 5 years before the DPE ever started. His unadjusted PPG is 1.04 at 990 games (38% of those games pre-dead puck). Alfredsson rolled back to 1002 games is at 0.99 PPG (100% of those games played after the start of the DPE). Era-adjusted, it's 1.09 Alfie to Mogilny's 1.06.

- Both Andreychuck and Mogilny have Cups, Alfie doesn't.

They had fewer points combined in their Stanley Cup winning postseasons than Alfredsson posted in his SCF's season.

I think that the voters have adjusted quite well to the bigger league / less chance at a Cup (Sundin, Oates, Housley, etc). The Cup is a nice cap to your career, but it's not the be all and end all.

This should also be where we point out that neither of Andreychuk or Mogilny produced as well as Alfredsson did in the playoffs... which really sucks because 1/3 of Mogilny's and well over 1/2 of Andreychuk's playoff games occurred between 1980-1995. They should have posted video game totals, not less than a player whose career started at the beginning of the DPE.

Those are all metrics in which both Mogilny and Andreychuck were better. Now, there's a lot of context missing there, but quite frankly, the HHOF often ignores context. This is my point in asking "By what metric is Alfredsson better", because while you and I can make a very good case that Alfredsson was better than both, this is the same institution that elected Dick Duff and Clark Gillies into the HHOF, so you know their view of context is at best handicapped. They look at total goals. They look at longevity. They look at "Cup Wins". They look at team achievements despite the fact that it's an individual recognition. They look at guys on winning teams/dynasties more than they look at guys on smaller market teams. They look at guys who got more press.

The admission for the HHOF is flawed, and as long as it is, there are definitely metrics that, even though you and I don't agree with them, will get Andreychuck and/or Mogilny into the HHOF before Alfredson... especially if there is a sympathy campaign out in the general public that these players have been "snubbed" in the past.

I think it's quite the opposite with those two players, there's a vocal crowd who believes that they should never get in. Andreychuk has some backers, I don't think Mogilny has any.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Alfredsson will quite easily get in the Hall of Fame, his class is incredibly weak. It will probably be him, Selanne, Lindros and then whoever.