Hypothetical: 1st round vs 3rd round exit

[Pavels Dog]

I'd certainly argue it should have been. Rafalski and Lidstrom didn't hit 40 overnight. You can make all the excuses you'd like, but other teams have found some gems in the mid rounds with defenseman and we have nothing to show for ourselves in a pretty big time frame.

It's not really an excuse, more like context. A lot of our draft picks from 00-05 set the stage for the 08 cup. Filppula, Hudler, Franzen, Helm. In addition to Kronwall in 00. A larger focus on d-man drafting during those years could have cost us that cup. Despite that, they did find Ericsson and Quincey which is a solid turnout. And they used the only 1st rounder they had since 00 on Kindl, and the next 1st rounder on Smith. A sign they knew what was coming and were preparing for it. Just a shame neither player worked out like we hoped but at the time they looked like solid picks.

And I don't blame our scouts much for not finding those late-round gems. There are so few, and it's basically like winning the lottery when you find them.

 

[Actual Thought*]

The NFL and NHL are totally different beasts. Apples and oranges, and using an extreme outlier like the Lions or Oilers doesn't help your argument either.


What's funny is Ken Holland is a big believer in luck. Just get in the playoffs and anything can happen...lol. The gullible fans are the ones that actually believe that.

It's not really an excuse, more like context. A lot of our draft picks from 00-05 set the stage for the 08 cup. Filppula, Hudler, Franzen, Helm. In addition to Kronwall in 00. A larger focus on d-man drafting during those years could have cost us that cup. Despite that, they did find Ericsson and Quincey which is a solid turnout. And they used the only 1st rounder they had since 00 on Kindl, and the next 1st rounder on Smith. A sign they knew what was coming and were preparing for it. Just a shame neither player worked out like we hoped but at the time they looked like solid picks.

And I don't blame our scouts much for not finding those late-round gems. There are so few, and it's basically like winning the lottery when you find them.

Well said. I would also argue that they can win a cup with the blue line they have. I know I will probably get flamed for it but given a top 4 or Green/Kronner/DDK/Q and our goaltending you can win a cup.

 

[PullHard]

Well said. I would also argue that they can win a cup with the blue line they have. I know I will probably get flamed for it but given a top 4 or Green/Kronner/DDK/Q and our goaltending you can win a cup.

You'd probably need prime John Madden and Jere Lehtinen as well as D&Z to be a decade younger just to win games 2-1 though

 

[puttebe]

Denying that the question is very suggestive, a team who loses in the ECF enters the next season believing they can win it all, and so does players around the league. A winning culture is the most important thing in all of sports.

A third round exit means heads held high, and also maybe a player like Yandle in the summer.
A first round exit is the same old story, and maybe another Sheahan at the draft.

I might chose a third round exit even if Detroit lost the pick completely.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Hope we trade our first round pick for Big Buff along with other things in a package, extend him and go as deep as we can.

 

[edmundbenz]

We go deep in the playoffs and avoid giving contracts to Ericsson's, Abdelkader's and KFQ's.

 

[Shaman464]

First of all, Holland may have done just that with the 5th rounder in Mrazek.

But thats not what we're arguing here. Your premise is that he'll draft one at 15 instead of 25.

And so what if he doesn't draft a Zetterberg or Datsyuk that late in the draft again. Based on your premise, all he needs to do is draft players outside of the top ~25. Its definitely not impossible to pick up extra picks after 25 either.

So, he could get Kuznetsov. Or Faulk. Or Toffoli. Or O'Reilly. Or Josi. Or another Tatar/Nyquist. Or any of Barrie, Savard, Vatanen, Hoffman, Benn, Klingberg, Gaudreau, Gibson, Saad, Kucherov, Weber, Subban, Simmonds, Carlson, Krug, Letang, et al.

Hell, the sweet spot for finding a stud defenseman seems to be outside the top 25. 5 of the top 10 defenseman in scoring right now were taken outside of the top 25. Out of the top 20, 12 were. Out of the top 30, 20 were. The trick isn't necessarily drafting high but drafting in volume. We drafted ****ton of forwards for a while, then honed in on centers, and we got lucky with Larkin. Do the same with defenseman and there are surely plenty to be found outside of the top 25.

Goalies tend to be wildcards.

 

[Yemack]

if we are getting another sure fire larkin calibre player, this should not even be a question in my opinion.

let's put it this way, if Wings went to conference final 2 seasons ago, would it have been worth it? looking back?

In my humble opinion, if we are not winning the cup, everyone else is 'also ran'. The goal is not about trying to have some success in playoff. It's about winning that cup and building towards it.

However, this only applies in a situation where Wings are getting that kind of player for sure. very hypothetical.

 

[Classicnamesup]

That is why the OP is ridiculous. Obviously we aren't getting Larkin every year or we would have 4 in 5 or however many years we have been beat up in the first round

 

[SpookyTsuki]

if we are getting another sure fire larkin calibre player, this should not even be a question in my opinion.

let's put it this way, if Wings went to conference final 2 seasons ago, would it have been worth it? looking back?

In my humble opinion, if we are not winning the cup, everyone else is 'also ran'. The goal is not about trying to have some success in playoff. It's about winning that cup and building towards it.

However, this only applies in a situation where Wings are getting that kind of player for sure. very hypothetical.

If we make it to the conference finals when we played Boston in the SCF then yeah, It would have been worth it. Considering that team was worse then the one we have now.

 

[Yemack]

If we make it to the conference finals when we played Boston in the SCF then yeah, It would have been worth it. Considering that team was worse then the one we have now.

sure it would have felt good that spring + summer but Wings will prolly have Larkin for next 15+ years. Although it is no guarantee he will be successful next season and after, I will have to take the latter. Again, this is under purely hypothetical scenario, so if we are talking about realistic scenario, I will definitely take the deep run that firts with the Cup.

1st round ext vs 3rd round exit both with pretty much uncertain future picks? well, conference final please.

 

[odin1981]

I'd rather have a 3rd round exit this year. Why because it means the potential for going on a cup run is there. The past 3 years of one and done's doesn't fill e with confidence that we have post season life after Dat's retires and Z regresses further. But with a cup run then it would at least make me rethink that position. Granted I don't think we are a cup contender yet but if we got a good run outta the team this year it would give me some hope.

 

[Classicnamesup]

Despite the loaded question, I don't think the voting went how OP wanted it to.

Voted for the 3rd round exit

 

[TheOtherOne]

I never understood wanting your team to lose for any reason.

I'm a fan of winning games. I want to win as many games as possible. No matter what.

If we're tied for last place in the league with 1 game left in the season, I want to win the last game. I don't care what it means for drafting. If we draft the first overall, I'll hope that he's good and helps us win games. If we draft the second overall, I'll hope that he's good and helps us win games.

I will never cheer to lose.

 

[Shaman464]

I never understood wanting your team to lose for any reason.

I'm a fan of winning games. I want to win as many games as possible. No matter what.

If we're tied for last place in the league with 1 game left in the season, I want to win the last game. I don't care what it means for drafting. If we draft the first overall, I'll hope that he's good and helps us win games. If we draft the second overall, I'll hope that he's good and helps us win games.

I will never cheer to lose.

I think you confuse cheering to lose with seeing the bigger picture. Getting into the playoffs in the NHL isn't a huge deal, 16 of 30 teams get in, literally over half. You have a statistically better chance of making the playoffs than missing them. Let that sink in. So getting bounced in the first round puts your team into a tier of teams that aren't actually good teams, but definitionally mediocre. So I will not cheer for a team that is mediocre to stay that way, but I would cheer for a team that shows a commitment to contending long term, even if it is at the expense of a streak, or a couple winning seasons.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I think you confuse cheering to lose with seeing the bigger picture. Getting into the playoffs in the NHL isn't a huge deal, 16 of 30 teams get in, literally over half. You have a statistically better chance of making the playoffs than missing them. Let that sink in. So getting bounced in the first round puts your team into a tier of teams that aren't actually good teams, but definitionally mediocre. So I will not cheer for a team that is mediocre to stay that way, but I would cheer for a team that shows a commitment to contending long term, even if it is at the expense of a streak, or a couple winning seasons.

I'm not confusing anything. I'm well aware of the implications of losing and drafting high. I just don't care. I will never cheer to lose. I'll take my chances with whatever lesser hyped prospects that we end up with.

I would rather win 1 game in the first round than not get there. I would rather win 1 game in the second round than not get there. Each and every single individual game I want to win. It's as simple as that.

 

[Shaman464]

I'm not confusing anything. I'm well aware of the implications of losing and drafting high. I just don't care. I will never cheer to lose. I'll take my chances with whatever lesser hyped prospects that we end up with.

I would rather win 1 game in the first round than not get there. I would rather win 1 game in the second round than not get there. Each and every single individual game I want to win. It's as simple as that.

Every time they get bounced in the first round they are denying themselves wins the the future.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Every time they get bounced in the first round they are denying themselves wins the the future.

That's great. I'm not hoping they get bounced in the first round. I'm hoping they make it to the second, and then the third, and then the fourth, and then the fifth.

Side note: Can you guarantee to me that a #13 overall pick is going to end up being a significantly better player than a #17 overall pick?

 

[PelagicJoe]

Something I would like to note is that in the end, the draft is basically a random crapshoot, despite how good scouting is. Everyone and their mother thought that the Senators were going to be this great team back in the 90s after they got those three stud top draft picks: Daigle, Yashin, and Radek Bonk. Last time I checked, Ottawa still hasn't won jack squat.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Every time they get bounced in the first round they are denying themselves wins the the future.

Hypothetical. This team has been a 1st/2nd round team for quite some time now and is still winning more than a lot of teams that have consistently been drafting in the top 5-10. I honestly think creating an athmosphere of excellency and winning mentality is more important than getting the most talented 18 year olds.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Hypotethical. This team has been a 1st/2nd round team for quite some time now and is still winning more than a lot of teams that have consistently been drafting in the top 5-10. I honestly think creating an athmosphere of excellency and winning mentality is more important than getting the most talented 18 year olds.

Where was Chicago's winning atmosphere before Toews and Kane?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Where was Chicago's winning atmosphere before Toews and Kane?

In Detroit as an advisor. Joined them in 08 to work with his son.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

In Detroit as an advisor. Joined them in 08 to work with his son.

Please tell me you are joking?

Five straight seasons of no playoffs, and all it took was one year of Bowman taking a side gig with Chicago for Chicago to go from cellar dweller to Cup Champions?

It probably had nothing to do with Toews and Kane emerging as elite forwards, Duncan Keith turning into an elite defenseman, and signing Marian Hossa.

Talent trumps everything. If you don't have talent, you don't have a good team.

Detroit does not have enough talent to win in the playoffs anymore. Barring some kind of miracle that has never happened.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Please tell me you are joking?

Five straight seasons of no playoffs, and all it took was one year of Bowman taking a side gig with Chicago for Chicago to go from cellar dweller to Cup Champions?

Yeah not entirely serious. But they were a terrible team for what, a decade? Top 10 draft picks didn't make them a contender over night. Kane and Toews were the cherries on top of a looooong time of sucking and their rise to contender had just as much to do with Bowman & Son, Quenneville and draft picks like Keith, Hjalmarsson, Kruger, as well as acquiring players like Sharp and Hossa.

Basically getting a Larkin at #15 is good enough, you don't need a Bennet, Reinhart or even Eichel. D-men are a little harder but they're not a sure thing even in the top 10, so you could end up sucking for many years without finding an elite #1.

 

[Dotter]

Despite the loaded question, I don't think the voting went how OP wanted it to.

Voted for the 3rd round exit

It's going exactly how I thought it would go, unfortunately. I want Detroit to become an elite team again. Drafting late won't do anything. No team since Wings won the cup in 2008 won a cup without top 10 draft picked players on their roster. None. And that's the cold hard facts.

Ken Holland is the best GM in the league, but he is by no means, an immortal god.