Hypothetical: 1st round vs 3rd round exit

[Dotter]

Hypothetical question

Had this debate with myself in the shower this morning. Would you rather Wings make 3rd round of the playoffs and draft "Jurco" level player (dman or forward) or accept a 1st round exit to draft a "Larkin" level of player (dman or forward)?

I know there's lots of fans that bring up the fact that Wings haven't made the 3rd round in like forever and have bitterness about it (since those ppl constantly bring it up). I, myself, am content making the playoffs while rebuilding. It seems like a slow process compared to the franchises' who prefer to tank hard for picks (except for the Oilers who can't tank enough).

So I have to ask, would you rather go deep for lower level picks, or would you rather make the playoffs, keep the streak alive, only to have early exits and draft Larkins?

I'm voting draft Larkins even though it might be the longer process. What's your choice?

Click to read more...

 

[detredWINgs]

Wait. Why are we assuming that because we're drafting 10 spots later, we're getting Jurcos instead of Larkins?

And Jurco was 35th overall. Technically he should've gone to whoever finished 5th worst in the NHL.

Obvious answer is 3rd round. And keep drafting Zetterbergs, Emmertons, Kronwalls, and Kindls per usual.

 

[WesNichols14]

I don't think the question is fair. Most players drafted at 15th overall aren't Larkin. Most think he would be for sure top 5 in a redraft. And Jurco was a second rounder so its like a whole rounds difference. I trust our scouting , so no matter where we pick I think we'll be fine in that department. I would rather us go as deep as possible and give pav and Z another shot, while also giving larkin and the other younger guys some more experience.

I tend to think the winning tradition here helps in more ways than just bragging rights. And the idea that we are starting another real run at being consistent contenders could help us in both the free agent and resigning departments.

 

[PullHard]

You aren't guaranteed anything in a draft

just because Detroit drafts ~15th doesn't mean they get Larkin every time

I know what you're getting at but it isn't that simple

I say the team makes moves that help the org long term

No more Legwands, Coles, Zidlickys

 

[Laser Rayzor]

Go as far as possible and give the kids who will be leading in the future some damn good experience. That experience is vital and IMO is worth the 10ish spot slide in our draft position.

Also I think your examples of Larkins and Jurcos is off base, we lucked out grabbing Larkin at 15. Moving from the 29th pick to the 15-22 zone doesn't mean we can grab another Larkin.

 

[Heaton]

You get better by winning, not losing.

 

[Dotter]

You get better by winning, not losing.

You need the players to win. You get those players by good drafting positions.

Wait. Why are we assuming that because we're drafting 10 spots later, we're getting Jurcos instead of Larkins?

And Jurco was 35th overall. Technically he should've gone to whoever finished 5th worst in the NHL.

Obvious answer is 3rd round. And keep drafting Zetterbergs, Emmertons, Kronwalls, and Kindls per usual.

Other teams fans argue Wings will likely never find a Zetterberg/Datsuyk late in the draft again since other teams know how to find these guys now.

So far those fans have proven right because Kenny has never drafted players like them since. And he likely won't again... atleast not players of their ilk.

 

[Heaton]

You need the players to win. You get those players by good drafting positions.

You can draft those players and still get better every year. Losing in the first round for a decade is getting us no where. Holland needs to empathize drafting and developing defense. We have the forwards.

 

[Shaman464]

You can draft those players and still get better every year. Losing in the first round for a decade is getting us no where. Holland needs to empathize drafting and developing defense. We have the forwards.

You can't screw up Hedmans, Jones, etc. This team is bad at drafting long term project D-men. A lot of it though isn't the development, it's scouting. With forwards drafting boom/bust players aren't as long term commitments compared to d-men. A boom/bust forward you can make judgments that are pretty accurate in their early 20s, with D-men it's an open question until their mid to late 20s. That means that there is a lot more commitment, and in a cap world, a lot harder choices.

Basically this team either needs to tank for a d-man or find better scouts, because the current model has been on of the bar none worst in the league at finding top-4 dmen in the draft.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

There was a thread on the main boards recently talking about the number of top ten picks teams like EDM and WPG have had, and they still suck. There's a lot of luck involved in the year you suck, do you get a Daigle or a Crosby with your #1?

 

[Classicnamesup]

You need the players to win. You get those players by good drafting positions.



Other teams fans argue Wings will likely never find a Zetterberg/Datsuyk late in the draft again since other teams know how to find these guys now.

So far those fans have proven right because Kenny has never drafted players like them since. And he likely won't again... atleast not players of their ilk.

Jamie Benn tells me this is wrong.

The question is ridiculously loaded, give me a break. Larkin is a godsend to a team that doesn't draft well in the first round recently

 

[Henkka]

You can't pick how many rounds you go at the playoffs.

Win as many as you can then worry about some draft picks.

Bad seasons with bad luck (injury -riddled 2014) will come, then you get higher picks, and draft (hopefully) guys like Larkin.

With higher picks you have a better chance to succeed, but it's only a better chance, not a quarantee.

Funny how people say we were lucky again. Maybe we were. But also some organizations tend to be more lucky constantly than other ones. That's better drafting. It's the hard background work our organization is doing.

Still won't cry a second after Jim Nill he left. Tyler Wright is one of best things has happened for this organization.

NA drafting is finally working and Andersson manages the Europe. It's a nice combo to have.

 

[Dotter]

Jamie Benn tells me this is wrong.

The question is ridiculously loaded, give me a break. Larkin is a godsend to a team that doesn't draft well in the first round recently

Detroit opted to pick Joakim Andersson over Jamie Benn. Detroit hasn't picked a Benn level player since 1999.

Are you willing to wait another 17 years to hopefully-maybe find your Jamie Benn assuming all the stars align and the global seas part? Chances are SETI will find intelligent extraterrestrial life before Red Wings draft a 'Jamie Benn' in the later rounds.

You act as if Red Wings can just draft a big franchise PPG player at will. Wings are still looking/hoping to find a top 3 defensman. Your "at will" plan doesn't seem to be working.

 

[Dotter]

You can't pick how many rounds you go at the playoffs.

No you can't. Yet people still consider it a failure when they are ejected early. Then Larkin is drafted.

With higher picks you have a better chance to succeed, but it's only a better chance, not a quarantee.

Their best chance at finding a top dman is with a high pick. Late picks aren't working.

Funny how people say we were lucky again. Maybe we were. But also some organizations tend to be more lucky constantly than other ones. That's better drafting. It's the hard background work our organization is doing.

Still won't cry a second after Jim Nill he left. Tyler Wright is one of best things has happened for this organization.

I agree.

NA drafting is finally working and Andersson manages the Europe. It's a nice combo to have.

I'll play devils advocate. As Classicnamesup pointed out, Wings drafted Joakim Andersson over Jamie Benn. That was a Hakan Andersson pick. Seems Hakan's success finding diamonds hasn't been very encouraging lately.

Is he slipping or are other teams finding prospects Hakan likes, who now get drafted in early rounds instead of dropping to Detroit like Dats and Z did?

But logical people know that finding players of Jamie Benn's ilk in the 5th round is incredibly lucky and extremely rare. Having that as your primary rebuild strategy is no doubt a losing strategy. Hitting a star player in late rounds is a HUGE bonus, but shouldn't be your primary game plan. That's like trying to win a scratch off lottery as your only form of income to house and feed your family. It's reckless.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

3rd round exit. Because that just means your a couple moves away from the cup. Or are a cup winner and just unlucky.

First round exit doesnt help you at all. Not really. Unless Hanifin dropped to where we were in the last draft

 

[Dotter]

3rd round exit. Because that just means your a couple moves away from the cup. Or are a cup winner and just unlucky.

Not really. Tampa Bay look like they are going to miss the playoffs (yet again) after going to the finals just last season.

First round exit doesnt help you at all. Not really. Unless Hanifin dropped to where we were in the last draft

That's like saying Wings have no chance unless Sam Reinhart drops. Red Wings HFboards went hysterical when Holland picked that nobody Dylan Larkin that year. What a waste of a 1st rounder that couldn't possibly ever help the team... like at all!

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Not really. Tampa Bay look like they are going to miss the playoffs (yet again) after going to the finals just last season.



That's like saying Wings have no chance unless Sam Reinhart drops. Red Wings HFboards went hysterical when Holland picked that nobody Dylan Larkin that year. What a waste of a 1st rounder that couldn't possibly ever help the team... like at all!

ooh. 1 pick. That makes such a difference from 3rd round app and a 1st one. Ill take the 1st one then and keep gettingf Dylan larkin

Or we could make the 3rd round and probably still get Anthony Mantha.

 

[Dotter]

ooh. 1 pick. That makes such a difference from 3rd round app and a 1st one. Ill take the 1st one then and keep gettingf Dylan larkin

Or we could make the 3rd round and probably still get Anthony Mantha.

Well atleast Anthony Mantha hasn't been a healthy scratch in the AHL the past two games. So he's on a roll now!

 

[The Zermanator]

I'd love to see some Conference Final hockey from this team, it's been too long!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Watching the Wings in the playoffs >>>>>>>> Watching the NHL draft

I'll take a deep run over an early exit or missed playoffs 100 times out of 100. Hell even a 1st round exit means we at least get 4-7 games of the best hockey there is.

I also believe the young players learn more from a few rounds of playoff hockey than they do from golfing in the summer.

 

[HisNoodliness]

If we could guarantee a Larkin- level defenseman in this coming draft by losing in the first round then obviously I'd do it, but we can't guarantee anything about the draft. So with that in mind I'd say always go as far as you can and worry about the draft later. If we get another gem, great, if our guy turns out to be a bust then oh well, it happens.

 

[Mister Ed]

Watching the Wings in the playoffs >>>>>>>> Watching the NHL draft

I'll take a deep run over an early exit or missed playoffs 100 times out of 100. Hell even a 1st round exit means we at least get 4-7 games of the best hockey there is.

I also believe the young players learn more from a few rounds of playoff hockey than they do from golfing in the summer.

I feel the same way

 

[Actual Thought*]

Why would anyone support a team that intentionally loses in hopes of getting lucky? That's just stupid management style and I could never support it. That's how you become the Lions. There should be an option in the poll for win and draft/develop well.

 

[Henkka]

I'll play devils advocate. As Classicnamesup pointed out, Wings drafted Joakim Andersson over Jamie Benn. That was a Hakan Andersson pick. Seems Hakan's success finding diamonds hasn't been very encouraging lately.

Yeah. H. Andersson did not see Jamie Benn play. He scouts Europe and Joker Andersson was the best on his paper on that time. If you want to blame somebody, every blame goes to NA scouts missing Benn. Malso those other 28 organizations, who missed Benn 4 different rounds, can watch in the mirror and blaim only themselves.

Jim Nill, Joe McDonell.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

So a guaranteed third round exit or a guaranteed first round exit? I will take the first round exit and draft the better player.

We gonna start raising banners for third round exits too? Gonna get awful crowded up there with all those 1st round exit banners.

However i don't see this as rebuilding. You don't rebuild while giving away draft picks. It's an oxymoron. You aren't rebuilding when you only target veterans that you think will get this team over the hump. What Holland has been doing these past three years is acting like the Wings were contenders, when in reality they were just pretenders.

I have no issue tanking. It's comical that people have some kind of elitist attitude against it. It's how 99.99% of pro sports works. Deal with it.