How Would You Rank These Second Overall Picks?

[GlitchMarner]

Dany Heatley
Jason Spezza
Eric Staal
Tyler Seguin


The bottom three seem comparable to me. I'm not quite sure how Heatley compares to the others.

Click to read more...

 

[Gorskyontario]

Staal
Spezza
Heatley
Seguin

If you value career over peak then flip Seguin and Heatley.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Eric Staal:

Two top ten scoring finishes (6th and 7th)
Three top ten goal scoring finishes (4th, 5th, 8th)

1365 GP:

455 goals
608 assists
1063 points
0.77 PPG
-83

Playoffs:

104 games
25 goals
39 assists
64 points
0.61 PPG
-20

Jason Spezza:

Two top ten scoring finishes (4th and 6th)
One top ten goal scoring finish (10th)

1248 games
363 goals
632 assists
995 points
0.79 PPG
+5

Playoffs:

97 games
28 goals
48 assists
76 points
0.78 PPG
-2


Tyler Seguin:

Two top ten scoring finishes (4th and 7th)
Four top ten goal scoring finishes (5th, 5th, 7th, 10th)

964 games
348 goals
437 assists
785 points
0.81 PPG
+74

Playoffs:

114 games
20 goals
38 assists
0.50 PPG
58 points
+3


Dany Heatley:

Three top ten scoring finishes (4th, 4th, 9th)
Six top ten goal scoring finishes (2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 8th, 9th)

869 games
372 goals
419 assists
791 points
0.91 PPG
+38

Playoffs:

77 games
16 goals
47 assists
63 points
0.81 PPG
-3

 

[Hobnobs]

Spezza
Staal

Seguin

Heatley

 

[GlitchMarner]

From these numbers, it seems clear that Heatley is number one. He has the most top ten point and goal scoring finishes despite having played the fewest games.

It's basically a toss-up between Staal and Spezza. I'd put Seguin last due to playoffs and the fact that I don't expect him to age as well as Staal or Spezza.

They're basically all offense-only players. I don't think you have to put much thought into who was better defensively, who brought more in terms of intangibles etc.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Spezza
Staal

Seguin

Heatley

How come you have Heatley in his own tier at the bottom?

I'm not a fan or anything. My feeling definitely was not that he's the best of the bunch. But objectively, the guy fares the best when it comes to goal and point scoring finishes.

 

[rmartin65]

Heatley
Staal
Spezza
Seguin

 

[weaponomega]

1. Staal
2. Heatley
3. Seguin
4. Spezza

 

[Stephen]

Eric Staal had the best career of the bunch, perfect mix of longevity, team success, overall stats line and staying power. Maybe underachieved based on where he was standing at the conclusion of the 2005-06 season where it looked like he would be an all-timer.

Dany Heatley shone brightest as a multi 50 goal, 100 point scorer but obviously came with some controversy and didn't seem to have the desire to drag out a 20 year career. Almost a what could have been career.

Jason Spezza is a lower tier Eric Staal who had a very early at 30 but managed to cruise at a lower altitude for long time. Don't think he had quite the career he should have had, slow to ramp it up and didn't have enough elite years. Never won anything.

Tyler Seguin seems to be going through a similar and sudden decline (caused by injuries) at 30 similar to Spezza, but never had the truly big years of Staal, Heatley or Spezza. Won a cup as a rookie, but that's more circumstances than achievement. He would be the worst of the bunch.

 

[seventieslord]

Heatley at his best was like a mini Matthews playing wing. I don't think there's any doubt that he was the biggest talent among the four. His offensive achievements are the best among the four, despite far fewer GP as well.

I hear a lot of people say, "when it's a center versus a winger, take the center." I'm thinking the opposite here. Aside from a few bright flashes for these centers, they were often "just" run of the mill first line centres, but Heatley was one of the top few wingers for a while.

If I'm doing an all-time draft and building a real lineup, I'm taking Heatley to play wing for me, a long time before I take these guys to play center. That speaks to the relative depth of the positions, but he also just ranks way higher at his position that they do at theirs.

 

[Hobnobs]

How come you have Heatley in his own tier at the bottom?

I'm not a fan or anything. My feeling definitely was not that he's the best of the bunch. But objectively, the guy fares the best when it comes to goal and point scoring finishes.

Career wise they all edge him out with good margin. They all are more complete players. They all have better character than Heatley as well.

If you want to win hockey games you take one of the three centers. If you want to sell tickets to a good show or want to complement the centers with a good winger you pick Heatley.

 

[overpass]

Spezza / Staal
Seguin
Heatley

Why is Heatley at the bottom? Because he was only an impact player for about 3.5 seasons and declined quickly. And because he was a great regular season player at his best but became predictable in the playoffs.

The frustrating thing was Heatley had the big body and all the skills to do anything on the ice. And he showed it some of the time at his best. For example, he led the league in scoring for a 10 game stretch while Spezza was injured and Chris Kelly was his centre. But as time went on he started cheating the game more and more and just floated around the slot with his stick in the air. At the end of his time in Ottawa he was the least valuable 40 goal scorer you'll find. Getting Heatley out of town was the best thing that could have happened to Spezza.

 

[MadLuke]

Spezza can be a strange spot.... I would imagine his PPG finish would be arguably best among the 4:

Points Per Game

2005-06 NHL 1.32 (4th)

2006-07 NHL 1.30 (5th)

2007-08 NHL 1.21 (6th)

2011-12 NHL 1.05 (5th)

But his points finish nothing special.
Points

2007-08 NHL 92 (6th)

2011-12 NHL 84 (4th)

they all have their flaw, strength, and prime Heatley was maybe the best, but if you start a franchise and get the pick, knowing all, is Staal the answer to go ? He will be there and do his things regardless year after year for a long time, springle a little bit of that Ottawa fire power around him during his prime and who knows...

 

[overpass]

Heatley's numbers in playoff series that his team lost, from 2006-2012:

23 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 7 P

Yes everyone's numbers are worse in series their team loses, but Spezza at least managed to score at double that rate in the same situations.

30 GP, 7 G, 13 A, 20 P

Heatley disappeared like few others when it got tough.

 

[Gorskyontario]

Spezza / Staal
Seguin
Heatley

Why is Heatley at the bottom? Because he was only an impact player for about 3.5 seasons and declined quickly. And because he was a great regular season player at his best but became predictable in the playoffs.

This somehow makes less then zero sense.

Dany Heatley Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Dany Heatley, a hockey player from Freiburg, Germany born Jan 21 1981 who was active from 1998 to 2016.

www.hockeydb.com

Heatley won the calder in 01/02, finished 9th in NHL scoring in 02/03. Scored 82 points in 09/10. While producing well in the playoffs. Please I would like you to explain how he was only an impact player for '3.5 seasons'. Because that literally makes zero sense.

 

[overpass]

This somehow makes less then zero sense.

Dany Heatley Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Dany Heatley, a hockey player from Freiburg, Germany born Jan 21 1981 who was active from 1998 to 2016.

www.hockeydb.com

Heatley won the calder in 01/02, finished 9th in NHL scoring in 02/03. Scored 82 points in 09/10. While producing well in the playoffs. Please I would like you to explain how he was only an impact player for '3.5 seasons'. Because that literally makes zero sense.

The 3.5 seasons are the one big year in Atlanta and then 2.5 seasons in Ottawa.

The second half of 07-08 and the whole 08-09 season Heatley was a one-dimensional passenger. Just floated around and tried to score goals. Maybe you had to see it to understand. He was completely incapable of driving his own line, and he was dragging Spezza down.

I assume he continued to be a passenger in San Jose as he played on a stacked line and couldn't match his peak scoring levels. And he only scored 5 goals in 32 playoff games there.

Heatley had a couple good early playoff rounds in Ottawa but Spezza was always the better playoff player. And Heatley repeatedly folded in close playoff series.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Heatley was a really frustrating player to watch 2007-2010. Maybe the best shot in the league after Ovechkin. But he would play poorly 90% of the game and find his way onto the scoresheet.

 

[Gorskyontario]

The 3.5 seasons are the one big year in Atlanta and then 2.5 seasons in Ottawa.

The second half of 07-08 and the whole 08-09 season Heatley was a one-dimensional passenger. Just floated around and tried to score goals. Maybe you had to see it to understand. He was completely incapable of driving his own line, and he was dragging Spezza down.

I assume he continued to be a passenger in San Jose as he played on a stacked line and couldn't match his peak scoring levels. And he only scored 5 goals in 32 playoff games there.

Heatley had a couple good early playoff rounds in Ottawa but Spezza was always the better playoff player. And Heatley repeatedly folded in close playoff series.

You can say he declined or had a short peak. I don't think 40 goals and 80 points in a low scoring era is irrelevant though.

 

[Yozhik v tumane]

It deserves a mention Heatley was awesome for Team Canada. Definitely reached the greatest star power of the four for me as a Swedish fan. I’d say Staal had the better career and has an outside shot at the HHoF.

 

[Caps8112]

the majority of staals playoff points are from 2 seasons at the beginning of his career. perhaps not his fault his team didnt make the playoffs to give him more opportunity in his prime but he was very mediocre in the playoffs after those first 2 runs.

After the first 2 runs
61 gp 6 g, 15 a

seguins career was a bit of a let down given iirc he could have been number 1 overall and it a toss up till draft day.

not sure what the right answer is to this. if your not relying on any of theses guys to be your main guy your probably fine taking any of them.

 

[Hobnobs]

You can say he declined or had a short peak. I don't think 40 goals and 80 points in a low scoring era is irrelevant though.

You didn't really follow the thrashers during that season did you? Heatley was a frustrating player to watch. He would go invisible for weeks and then suddenly score 20 goals over a short span then go invisible again when the games mattered.

I agree it's not irrelevant but yeah... frustrating..

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

we saw heatley and spezza on the same line and in my recollection at least it was obvious that spezza was more responsible for its success, especially in the playoffs, although let’s be clear neither was commendable in the playoffs.

i think i’m in the minority though when i say that imo the very best of spezza was a little better than peak staal. there was one year in ottawa after heatley was gone and alfredsson’s prime ended when spezza was, briefly, a true superstar center. like peak tavares calibre. i prefer that spezza year to staal’s early 100 pt season, when brind’amour was doing much of the heavy lifting for that team, and i don’t think staal ever really had a truly notable season otherwise.

seguin, all i can say about him is that it’s bonkers to me that he’s still only 32. i would swear that he’s 35-36. he hasn’t felt relevant in so long.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I think the Heatley vs Spezza thing really highlights how unbalanced players, particularly wingers, have a much easier time accumulating awards and voting and clout than more balanced attacking centers. Now, Spezza was not much of a finisher and he's a bit of a weaker example than I'd like, but in principal this happens more often than it should...

This is a good premise for a thread though...four players that could really frustrate you as a fan.

 

[buffalowing88]

As a Sabres fan during the height of the Pizza Line days, I can say with a fair degree of certainty that Spezza was a bigger problem than Heatley by a good bit. Spezza could create for others as well as himself, he just didn't always try to and that unselfishness is a blessing and a curse for him in general. Alfredsson could do both as well. They scared me to death when they were out there.

Heatley was obviously a lethal goal scorer, but he could be negated by a good gameplan in a much simpler manner.

Watched Staal a ton because I lived in NC during his career here and always felt underwhelmed by him. Maybe 05-06 raised the expectations too high but he didn't feel like an offensive force, more of just a steady 1C who would need a good supporting cast to really succeed.

Seguin is the clear-cut last place one here. He's a good player, but certainly didn't have the peaks of the other three.

So I'd say:

Spezza
Heatley
Staal
Seguin

 

[Golden_Jet]

Spezza, Staal, Seguin then Heatley.