TBN: How the Sabres use analytics: Q&A with Jason Nightingale, assistant director of scouting

[jc17]

Which of their acquisitions were Montour style micro-stats adds? Most of their mistakes had more to do with misreading aging curves for players that had good underlying numbers, and Chayka’s initial mandate to build around fraudulent assets in OEL/Strome.

It’s frustrating how Arizona has become this case study on both analytics and micro vs macro stats, when their issues have far more to do with an incompatible owner/executive relationship that would torpedo most approaches.

Honestly just something I read, I don't know the validity of it

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Honestly just something I read, I don't know the validity of it

I know the article you’re talking about, it’s not wrong in highlighting: Chayka being a microstats/video analysis guy, and not making “true analytics” moves relative to on-ice results and age curves.

Where it breaks down is, I don’t think Chayka’s mistakes were necessarily because of his background. His early foibles were because Arizona was trying to be good now with the ownership/attendance issues, and then the later stuff was your standard flailing around trying to save his job.

 

[Fezzy126]

I know the article you’re talking about, it’s not wrong in highlighting: Chayka being a microstats/video analysis guy, and not making “true analytics” moves relative to on-ice results and age curves.

Where it breaks down is, I don’t think Chayka’s mistakes were necessarily because of his background. His early foibles were because Arizona was trying to be good now with the ownership/attendance issues, and then the later stuff was your standard flailing around trying to save his job.

Maybe I'm oversimplifying the issues with Arizona, but I think half of the problem is fan expectations following a rebuild. This is for a few reasons:

1. High percentage of success of lottery picks
2. Age/Performance curves suggest that players statistically peak in their early 20's
3. Teams like Pittsburgh & Chicago managed to draft their cornerstone pieces and experienced immediate success

I'm generalizing here, but most good teams in the league are veteran teams, with their core in their late 20's and early 30's, along with some vets and kids mixed in the lineup in supporting roles. So I don't think it's any surprise that Arizona has finally started to become more competitive as guys like Schmaltz, Keller, Dvorak, Garland, Chychrun, and Fischer gain more experience in the league and actually develop adult strength & endurance. It's just not realistic to expect a bunch of 19, 20, and 21 year olds to lead the charge against established winning teams, regardless of who you surround them with.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Maybe I'm oversimplifying the issues with Arizona, but I think half of the problem is fan expectations following a rebuild. This is for a few reasons:

1. High percentage of success of lottery picks
2. Age/Performance curves suggest that players statistically peak in their early 20's
3. Teams like Pittsburgh & Chicago managed to draft their cornerstone pieces and experienced immediate success

I'm generalizing here, but most good teams in the league are veteran teams, with their core in their late 20's and early 30's, along with some vets and kids mixed in the lineup in supporting roles. So I don't think it's any surprise that Arizona has finally started to become more competitive as guys like Schmaltz, Keller, Dvorak, Garland, Chychrun, and Fischer gain more experience in the league and actually develop adult strength & endurance. It's just not realistic to expect a bunch of 19, 20, and 21 year olds to lead the charge against established winning teams, regardless of who you surround them with.

I'm not sure it was a fan problem though. From memory, there was a lot of top-down pressure for immediate competitive hockey to put butts in seats.

Also, the reason they had to rely on their younger players so much is because the veteran & blue chip prospect who were supposed to bridge that gap provided a fraction of their expected value. Give them Hanifin/Marner and their outlook is way different.