How much would you offer for ROR?

[cgf]

Intangibles!

Yeah, the point that sticks out for me is the fact that Mackinnon is not ready for the center role, yet, and may never be. Maybe he is better as a winger in the NHL, maybe it takes him a couple of more years to figure it out. What do we do until then? At least that is the way I was looking at it.

On the other side, we don't what is straight line offensive production will be over the next couple of years and we don't how how his game translates to the playoffs so it would be a bit of a gamble to add on those extra couple of G's. I would take the gamble, though.

Even if MacK does become a C, I could see him doing better with a winger who has C experience and can help him there, like Benn does for Seguin, or ROR did for Dutchy last year. Ryan's just such a unique tool who fits so nicely with so many of our core forwards, that it'll really suck if we lose him whether it be as our 2C between MacK and Landy or as a winger for MacK or Dutchy, ROR is pretty perfect for either role and just does such a great job rounding out our core forwards collective skillset. That's why I'd have no qualms going up to 7.5 if we could afford to keep the rest of the core with him making that much. Even in the worst case scenario he'll become a great partner in crime for one of our two potential superstar Cs down the road.

As for his production, we can safely assume that he can provide 55+ points if he's not used as a pure shutdown guy. Since joining the top 6 Ryan has had 18g/37a for 55pts in his first season; then came the lockout/holdout year where he paced for 17g/39a and a total of 56pts; before last season's 28g/36a and 64 pts. This year he's on pace for only 12g/37a and only 49 points, but has been trending better and so is likely to crack a 50pt pace again. So he has been consistently good for 36-39 assists over a season since the promotion, and it is his goal tallies that vary. So the real question is do the think he's going to be that upper teens goal-scorer he was his first two season, or the guy who pushed for 30 last year? Given the growth in his game and the improved talent around him I feel pretty confident he can put up 25+ goals on a regular basis in our top 6.

 

[cgf]

I don't know if the math would work. I haven't looked up the numbers, but the 2016-17 season could be rough if we have 8 guys making north of 5.3M (EJ, Varly, Barrie, ROR, DUchene, Landy, Iggy, MacKinnon). I'm not sure it would work. We better find some cheap talent fast.


How much can we depend on that? People have been saying the cap will go up for years, and it doesn't look like it's going to move much next year.

Yeah, that's why I try to emphasize that I haven't sat down and re-checked the math, but this is what the team keeps greg from accounting for and why they should be feeling EJ/Barrie/MacK out on extensions once the season is over. If they can't afford it then they can't afford it, but if they can, then I don't mind going to 7.5 one bit. And I'm pretty sure the math worked when I checked it in the summer, though with EJ and Barrie having the years they did they can get more than I probably guestimated they'd receive (I think I used ~6 for EJ and ~5 for barrie, numbers which could easily be .5-1M higher after this season).

Cheap talent will be crucial once we complete the core, which is why I like the focus on rebuilding the pipeline, making the AHL club more call up friendly, exploring every avenue to find prospects, the way they draft, and some of the cheaper role players who I'd like to stick around assuming no major raises (I'm talking Malkin, Holden and maybe McGinn, depending on his pricetag and back). We've just gotta wait and see if they can do all that successfully; but so far, so good, as their drafting and FA-prospects have been very promising.

 

[cgf]

An extra 100k doesn't make a difference but how much does? 500k, 1M? Anything higher than 6.5 really is padding it just to appease him. Why does he get that and nobody else? I'm sure Barrie, MacK and EJ would like their next contracts padded an extra 500k too. When does it end, where do you draw the line? Sometimes I do think just pay him and we'll make it work. But there are only a few guys on a team you can truly do that for. Nice that our core guys haven't been that way-yet. We still have 3 more to go and frankly are more important.

True. If EJ, Barrie and MacK fall closer to ROR in negotiations than to Landy/Dutchy/Varly than even 6.5 may be too much for us to also afford an EJ partner and competent depth. But those are figures that management have to get, at the very least, ballpark'd well before they reach a final decision on ROR.

 

[member 116861]

$6.5m

 

[Freudian]

Avs without him will have a terrible offense, with only Landeskog as a top six forward with a strong two-way game. I can't see how the team will be able to be competitive letting go of Stastny and him two years in a row.

This of course leaves Avs in a bind in June. Paying him too much might be better than trading him for a return that doesn't necessarily fill any needs.

 

[tucker3434]

It seems a lot of people aren't expecting the players to use the escalator because escrow is an issue. Friedman wrote this two weeks back...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-flames-face-deadline-crossroads/

We'll see how they vote. It's a card they could use, but in the end, I doubt they will.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Avs are somewhere in the neighborhood of 60mil for next season already. They can't afford to add something like 9mil combined for extending ROR, EJ, MacK and Barrie. Not if they want to add a top defender to the mix. If they were to say add Sekera at 6mil, they'd be praying the cap increases significantly by 2016-17.

There's a serious cap crunch and I miss capgeek.

 

[Freudian]

Avs are somewhere in the neighborhood of 60mil for next season already. They can't afford to add something like 9mil combined for extending ROR, EJ, MacK and Barrie. Not if they want to add a top defender to the mix.

There's a serious cap crunch and I miss capgeek.

O'Reilly going from $6M to $7M
EJ going from $3.75M to $7M
Barrie going from $2.6M to $5M

Those raises means a cap increase of $6.65M in 2016-17, which means Avs would have plenty of times to make it work.

It's doable since Avs have Hejda ($3.25M), Briere ($4M), Wilson ($2.25M), Talbot ($1.85M) coming off the books. McGinn ($2.95M) is a pending UFA and might be someone Avs want to move for someone cheaper.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

An extra 100k doesn't make a difference but how much does? 500k, 1M? Anything higher than 6.5 really is padding it just to appease him. Why does he get that and nobody else? I'm sure Barrie, MacK and EJ would like their next contracts padded an extra 500k too. When does it end, where do you draw the line? Sometimes I do think just pay him and we'll make it work. But there are only a few guys on a team you can truly do that for. Nice that our core guys haven't been that way-yet. We still have 3 more to go and frankly are more important.

500k would be my line, for any of the top/core players, not just RoR. Depends on the cap of course though. You obviously can't be giving everyone an extra 500k, but you also can't expect to field a team without giving some players a little extra. That's the good thing about having 2 dozen players. Some of them are going to take less than what they could. Duchene, Varly and Lando probably could have squeezed out an extra 500k. I bet EJ takes a good deal as well in favor of us having a little extra money for his new partner. He has got to be tired of carrying the top pair and not having anyone else who can handle the "tough match ups". MacK is still on an ELC. He isn't in a position to get overpaid a lot. He will get a sweetheart RFA deal (compared to other RFA), but he won't be pushing 7-8mil or whatever he is worth right away as if he was an UFA. He will either take a bridge at way less, looking for a big pay day in a couple years, or he takes a long term deal around 6. Barrie has me worried. I could see him taking anything from 4.5 to demanding 7. If we over pay RoR, Barrie and EJs new partner by 500k each then I would say our core is looking pretty good. We can easily make up 1.5 mil further down the roster. Actually, it's kind of balanced out by Varly, Duchene and Lando's good contracts.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

O'Reilly going from $6M to $7M
EJ going from $3.75M to $7M
Barrie going from $2.6M to $5M

Those raises means a cap increase of $6.65M in 2016-17, which means Avs would have plenty of times to make it work.

It's doable since Avs have Hejda ($3.25M), Briere ($4M), Wilson ($2.25M), Talbot ($1.85M) coming off the books. McGinn ($2.95M) is a pending UFA and might be someone Avs want to move for someone cheaper.

I'm pretty sure Hejda, Briere and Wilson were already factored into that 60mil. Next season we could get away with a big ticket free agent. I'm moreso thinking what if the cap doesn't raise 10mil between this offseason and next offseason? It's definitely a realistic concern.

They'd have to gut any depth to make it work in that situation which makes the team worse. Sure, Talbot and McGinn come off the books (whatever % we're retaining of Talbot), Zanon comes off this offseason, Tanguay gets re-upped I believe (probably around his current contract price)...

I'm still skeptical the Avs could maintain depth, add a top flight defender and retain all their top end talent on long term high dollar deals.

 

[Ivan13]

Avs without him will have a terrible offense, with only Landeskog as a top six forward with a strong two-way game. I can't see how the team will be able to be competitive letting go of Stastny and him two years in a row.

This of course leaves Avs in a bind in June. Paying him too much might be better than trading him for a return that doesn't necessarily fill any needs.

Couldn't have said it better myself, they need to lock him up.

 

[cgf]

O'Reilly going from $6M to $7M
EJ going from $3.75M to $7M
Barrie going from $2.6M to $5M

Those raises means a cap increase of $6.65M in 2016-17, which means Avs would have plenty of times to make it work.

It's doable since Avs have Hejda ($3.25M), Briere ($4M), Wilson ($2.25M), Talbot ($1.85M) coming off the books. McGinn ($2.95M) is a pending UFA and might be someone Avs want to move for someone cheaper.

Not to mention that those raises won't kick in next year, but the one after that, so Berra will definitely be off of the books, and Tanguay could be gone to; with iginla and Stuart on the last years of their deals. it could get tight, but I also think it should be doable depending on how much Barrie/EJ/MacK get. Even if it means there's we have to make a trade purely for cap purposes the season after next for that one year.

 

[cgf]

I'm pretty sure Hejda, Briere and Wilson were already factored into that 60mil. Next season we could get away with a big ticket free agent. I'm moreso thinking what if the cap doesn't raise 10mil between this offseason and next offseason? It's definitely a realistic concern.

They'd have to gut any depth to make it work in that situation which makes the team worse. Sure, Talbot and McGinn come off the books (whatever % we're retaining of Talbot), Zanon comes off this offseason, Tanguay gets re-upped I believe (probably around his current contract price)...

I'm still skeptical the Avs could maintain depth, add a top flight defender and retain all their top end talent on long term high dollar deals.

But which do you prioritize, the depth, the dman or the core forwards? IMO the dman and core forwards are a lot more important than the depth now that our core guys are starting to become young vets rather than youngsters still learning how to NHL. So I'd prioritize keeping them, even if it means they struggle to maintain proper depth and so to genuinely compete until the pipeline is loaded like Tampa's and is baring fruit.

 

[Freudian]

I'm pretty sure Hejda, Briere and Wilson were already factored into that 60mil. Next season we could get away with a big ticket free agent. I'm moreso thinking what if the cap doesn't raise 10mil between this offseason and next offseason? It's definitely a realistic concern.

They'd have to gut any depth to make it work in that situation which makes the team worse. Sure, Talbot and McGinn come off the books (whatever % we're retaining of Talbot), Zanon comes off this offseason, Tanguay gets re-upped I believe (probably around his current contract price)...

I'm still skeptical the Avs could maintain depth, add a top flight defender and retain all their top end talent on long term high dollar deals.

All teams have to make these adjustments to make it work. For Avs, they're going to need players on ELCs or cheap second contracts going forward (Hishon, Bleackley, Siemens and Bigras on the team in 2016-17 for example).

I don't expect the cap to be much more than $72-73M by then, so I don't expect extra space helping Avs. You have to prioritize. For me, players who have a game that always will work (O'Reilly, Landeskog, EJ, Varlamov) and players with game breaking ability (Duchene, MacKinnon, Barrie) are the highest priority. Everyone else on the team are cap dollars I would shed before those and that includes Iginla and Tanguay in addition to McGinn.

 

[Bednars Suit Game]

6.0-7.0 if there is term

 

[Coloradorov]

Looking to the future cap with 5 or more years on the contract, I would feel good with anything 7.5 or less with no ntc. That gives him incentive to stay and keep working hard. It also gives us the ability to move him in the future for what his value is, as opposed to what we are forced to take.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Not to mention that those raises won't kick in next year, but the one after that, so Berra will definitely be off of the books, and Tanguay could be gone to; with iginla and Stuart on the last years of their deals. it could get tight, but I also think it should be doable depending on how much Barrie/EJ/MacK get. Even if it means there's we have to make a trade purely for cap purposes the season after next for that one year.

berra will on his final year as well.

 

[forsbergavs32]

I'd be alright with 7m with 6-8 year term....anything more than that is starting to push it for me. If not then I would work on trading him by July 1.

 

[cgf]

berra will on his final year as well.

I thought he got just a two year extension? This season, and next, no?

 

[tigervixxxen]

It's not capgeek but to me this is easily the best/easiest way to see current and future salary numbers.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=COL

If they get EJ on a reasonable deal that's one more key to the puzzle. They more cost certainty they have the better. Duchene, Landy and Varly's deals will probably allow us to keep someone down the line. Hell, Landy alone might let them afford one extra/better player.

I think all the depth forwards will be gone when their deals are up they need cheaper talent. I think it's pretty easy to see Bleackley takes McGinn's spot. If we get a higher end forward in the draft, could be penciled in to take Tangs or Iggy's spot.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I thought he got just a two year extension? This season, and next, no?

Unfortunately he got 3 years.

 

[UncleRisto]

I voted for less than 6.5. I'd go to 6.66 for fun but I'm not sure if it's wise to go to 7+ for him. If the cap doesn't climb quick I'm not sure how we're going to address the defense if we want help outside of the draft. I'm sure something like that would be doable but I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with that knowing that the offensive depth isn't quite there either and the cupboard is rather bare for now.

Now that I think of it I should've gone for 6.5-7 but that's it.

 

[Cypher]

7 million x 5 years OR
6.5 million x 7 years

 

[AvsWraith]

I would offer 6.5-7M, but the real question is what does Newport think ROR will be offered if he hits UFA? You know Newport isn't gonna go for just a slight increase in pay with UFA just a year away. They're gonna play it how they always have with us.

 

[cgf]

Unfortunately he got 3 years.

Hmm, well guess we'll still have berra, but that's still quite a bit of salary that will likely be shed over these next two summers before any ROR/EJ/Barrie/MacK would kick in. It could be possible to give ROR 7.5 and keep the rest of the core, but since we don't have much insight on what those numbers will look like, it's impossible to accurately predict for those of us not listening to Roy's conversations with their agents. That's why I think it's crucial that we at least have ball park figures for the other 3, well before we make a final decision on ROR.