How much value are the Jets getting from their contracts

[garret9]

Hey, I wrote something.

If you missed the series "Moneypuck" wrote about building Stanley Cup contending teams and the statistic Goals Above Replacement, you are really missing out. (Here is the finale of the series, which has links to each one)

In the series Moneypuck shows how the best teams maximize their GAR per dollar by finding elite talent and managing the Salary Cap.

So how does the Jets roster perform when looked under the same microscope?

http://jetsnation.ca/2015/9/18/how-much-value-are-the-winnipeg-jets-getting-from-their-contracts

I look at the Jets contracts vs their performance over the last 3 seasons (Burmi gets the 3 seasons in the NHL).

I also look at what we can expect from Myers and Stafford if they return back to their pre-Buffalo-tire-fire form.

Click to read more...

 

[Whileee]

Hey, I wrote something.


http://jetsnation.ca/2015/9/18/how-much-value-are-the-winnipeg-jets-getting-from-their-contracts

I look at the Jets contracts vs their performance over the last 3 seasons (Burmi gets the 3 seasons in the NHL).

I also look at what we can expect from Myers and Stafford if they return back to their pre-Buffalo-tire-fire form.

Thanks. Interesting analysis. I think we need to have a look at Stafford and Myers in the Jets system for some time before sorting things out. The Buffalo tire fire is probably a difficult situation in which to assess players like them.

Did you account for the fact that Carolina is retaining $450k of Harrison's contract?

 

[garret9]

Thanks. Interesting analysis. I think we need to have a look at Stafford and Myers in the Jets system for some time before sorting things out. The Buffalo tire fire is probably a difficult situation in which to assess players like them.

Did you account for the fact that Carolina is retaining $450k of Harrison's contract?

It is, but like I said, we can look to how they were when Sabres were just as good of a team as the Jets.

Yes, re: Harrison.

 

[SLAYER]

Awesome article, thanks for posting.

 

[Whileee]

It is, but like I said, we can look to how they were when Sabres were just as good of a team as the Jets.

Yes, re: Harrison.

I'm still trying to fathom how Myers is below Stuart and Harrison in the GAR calculations. Doesn't that seem a bit odd to you? According to that analysis it would be a no-brainer to trade Myers for Harrison or Stuart - much cheaper and better (or less bad) results. Myers is apparently by far the Jets' worst defenseman.

I understand the vagaries and limitations of these statistical approaches, but it's those types of analyses that make some folks go...

If we can't actually adjust individual performance for team performance unless the teams are comparable, then don't we have some fundamental issues in comparing across teams?

 

[garret9]

I'm still trying to fathom how Myers is below Stuart and Harrison in the GAR calculations. Doesn't that seem a bit odd to you? According to that analysis it would be a no-brainer to trade Myers for Harrison or Stuart - much cheaper and better (or less bad) results. Myers is apparently by far the Jets' worst defenseman.

I understand the vagaries and limitations of these statistical approaches, but it's those types of analyses that make some folks go...

If we can't actually adjust individual performance for team performance unless the teams are comparable, then don't we have some fundamental issues in comparing across teams?

Simple: TOI.
It's not a rate stat; it's a total value stat.
You think Peluso would have such a small negative impact if he played the same minutes as Blake Wheeler?

The analysis would not suggest trade for Myers for Stuart or Harrison. The analysis is just showing value the players have provided in terms of impact on goal differential relative to a replacement level player on an average team over the past 3 seasons versus their contract AAV.

Besides, it's not that hard to fathom if you watched the Sabres the past two seasons. Myers was a relative tire fire on a team full of tire-fires. Psychological impacts aside, that's not going to dress you pretty.

 

[garret9]

I added Frolik and also Stafford's previous 3 seasons, before Buffalo was a tire-fire team:

My guess is Stafford's true value will be between the two.
Stafford's last 3 seasons were undershooting due to team factors.
Stafford's previous 3 seasons before that were likely overshooting as that's the age where GAR tends to peak for a player.

 

[garret9]

And now here's the Defenders graph updated with Myers previous 3 seasons and also Bogosian for reference.

We can see why Myers has far more "rebound" upside than Stafford does.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

And now here's the Defenders graph updated with Myers previous 3 seasons and also Bogosian for reference.

(snip)

We can see why Myers has far more "rebound" upside than Stafford does.

I'd be OK with 'smoldering tire fire' regarding possession for Stafford, if he can rebound slightly. I don't expect the type of scoring he produced last year with the Jets because of his unusually high (for him) SH%, but paired with defensively responsible players (Lowry and Burma?), he should add some decent scoring punch.

Have high hopes that Myers can return to his early play.

 

[garret9]

80% of teams to make the quarterfinals in the last 5 full seasons (so 20 teams) have been teams that totalled 107 GAR or more (top 25% of all teams in the same years).

I think my next step will be trying to predict the Jets GAR for next year.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

80% of teams to make the quarterfinals in the last 5 full seasons (so 20 teams) have been teams that totalled 107 GAR or more (top 25% of all teams in the same years).

I think my next step will be trying to predict the Jets GAR for next year.

Might be tough with the supposed influx of rookies, but will be an interesting exercise.